It's been seven years since Johnny turned into Judas. Now another popular center fielder from Boston is changing in his Sox for pinstripes. Following in the footsteps of Johnny Damon, Jacoby Ellsbury is leaving to join the New York Yankees for a shiny new 7-year, $153 million contract. As you could imagine, this isn't going over well in Boston.
The reason that Red Sox Nation is up in arms over the news has less to do with Ellsbury leaving Boston than it is about him joining the Yankees. Jumping ship to the Evil Empire, the team's most hated rival, will never go over well around here. Especially when the perception (fairly or not) is that he did it out of greed.
Yet that's hardly fair to Ellsbury. Having been burned in the not so distant past by contracts like the one they gave Carl Crawford, the Red Sox were understandably hesitant to dish out another massive long term contract. The philosophy of Ben Cherington and the front office has shifted the past couple years toward a more conservative approach. They are still willing to spend money, but less willing to commit in terms of years on the contract. The Red Sox were already stretching this philosophy by offering Ellsbury a reported 6-year, $120 million deal. When New York offered a 7th year (with an option for an 8th), that stretched beyond Boston's comfort zone. Given how rarely these expensive long term deals work out, it's hard to blame them.
Ellsbury is coming off a season where he hit .298/.355/.426, while providing excellent defense in center field and production on the base paths (MLB best 52 steals). His five-tool talent added up to a value of 5.8 WAR, which made him a borderline MVP candidate. In 2011 Ellsbury had a career year where he produced an 8.1 WAR, which should have won him the MVP award (Justin Verlander stole it to become the first starting pitcher since Roger Clemens to win the award). So it's clear that Ellsbury is capable of putting up the type of production that would make him worth nearly $22 million per year. Considering the going rate on the free agent market in recent years has been approximately $6 million per win above replacement, if Ellsbury performs similar to how he did last season, he may even be considered a relative bargain.
The problem is that committing seven years at that price is an enormous risk. That's generally the case with any player, but Ellsbury comes with more concern than the average star player due to his injury history. Ellsbury has missed a lot of time over the past four seasons, which include two injury plagued years where he played a combined 92 games in 2010 and 2012. Even last season, in a relatively healthy year, he still missed 28 games. While it may not be fair to call him injury prone, the risk can't be ignored.
Also factor in that Ellsbury will be 30 years old this season. While he's still in his prime now, he'll likely be long past it by age 37 when his contract runs out. Ellsbury is one of the premiere lead-off hitters in the game, thanks to his blazing speed and above average contact rate. There are some speed players that were able to maintain similar production in their mid-30's, compared to how they performed in their late 20's (Rickey Henderson and Ichiro come to mind), but they seem to be the exception rather than the rule. Ellsbury is fast enough now that even when he loses a step or two he'll still be fast enough to be an above average center fielder and provide positive value on the base paths. On the other hand, as he ages he'll find it harder to beat out some of those infield singles and his bat speed could decline, leading to an increase in strikeouts, which means his batting average could take a hit. Since he doesn't walk very often, his career .350 OBP (which is good, but nothing special for a lead-off hitter) is likely to decline.
While it's not all that surprising that Boston was willing to let Ellsbury walk away after his asking price exceeded what they were willing to pay, it is somewhat surprising that it was the Yankees that were ready to pounce. Perhaps we shouldn't ever be surprised when the Yankees come after an elite free agent with bundles of cash, but this is also a team that was adamant about dipping below the $189 million luxury tax line this season in order to avoid the costly repeater penalties. Spending a combined $238 million on Brian McCann and Ellsbury (nearly $39 million per season between them) doesn't seem to fall in line with that goal. They also foolishly gave Derek Jeter a new $12 million deal after he opted out of the last year of his previous contract (a $9.5 million option). Obviously keeping their captain was important to the franchise, but no other team was going to come anywhere near paying that much to a 39 year old SS that missed almost all of last season with a recurring injury.
Yes, the Yankees were able to free up over $56 million this off-season with departing free agents coming off the books, plus the retirements of Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte, but they've already added most of that salary back by adding two players and still have a lot of holes to fill. Right now they have approximately $139 million committed to their payroll, but that's without factoring in salaries for their eight arbitration eligible players. If all of them are to be retained, that could easily push the payroll past $160 million, while only accounting for 18 players of a 25 man roster. Since their farm system isn't exactly flush with major league ready talent, most of those roster spots will need to be filled via free agency.
Having that much salary committed already would make it essentially impossible for the Yankees to re-sign Robinson Cano at anywhere near the amount he's reportedly looking for if they are serious about staying under the luxury tax. So far New York is balking at the notion of giving him a $200 million contract and it's doubtful that any team would go that far to sign him, but there's no chance he stays with the Yankees for anything less than what Ellsbury got. In reality, Cano will likely get an even larger deal. Adding another $20+ million per year contract to their payroll would already have them approaching the tax line, with half a dozen roster spots still to fill.
The real wild card in this situation is of course A-Rod. The Yankees third baseman has been hit with a 211-game suspension, which would wipe out his 2014 season and his $25 million salary (although his $1 million signing bonus would presumably still count against their payroll). The problem is, Rodriguez is appealing the suspension. While it's unlikely to be overturned, there is a real chance this unprecedented suspension will at least be reduced. Until the Yankees can be assured that A-Rod is suspended for the whole season and none of his salary will count toward the luxury tax line, they'll be playing a dangerous game in assuming they have that extra cash to play with. Unfortunately, it could be some time before they find out. Even if his salary is wiped out this year, he's under contract until 2018. Perhaps it would help them dip below the tax this season, but signing another massive deal with Cano still creates a long term issue. Pushing today's problems to tomorrow has to catch up to them eventually.
If the Ellsbury deal signals the end of Cano's tenure in New York, have the Yankees really improved? As great a player as Ellsbury is, Cano has been the more valuable player - not only last season, but over the past several years. While Ellsbury finished 15th in MVP voting last season, Cano finished 5th, with a 7.6 WAR. Cano has finished in the top 6 for MVP voting in each of the past four seasons and had a higher WAR in two of those seasons than Ellsbury had in his best year.
Also factor in who Ellsbury is replacing. While he's a clear upgrade over Curtis Granderson, it's not as if the Yankees incumbent center fielder was any slouch. He struggled with injuries in a down year last season, but prior to that he averaged a 4.3 WAR in three seasons with the Yankees. The 32 year old Granderson is a batting average risk that strikes out a lot more than Ellsbury, but also provides more power. That's notable for a Yankees team that finished an uncharacteristic 22nd in Home Runs last season. Moving to Yankee Stadium, with it's friendly left field porch, should improve Ellsbury's power numbers, but we shouldn't expect that to be enough for him to regain the power stroke he showed in 2011. Let alone blast the 40+ homers that Granderson did in his last two healthy seasons.
It's not as if the Yankees had a huge void to fill in the outfield either. Their outfield already consists of Brett Gardner, Ichiro and Alfonso Soriano. Not to mention the corpse of Vernon Wells that still lurks on their bench. Ellsbury is clearly better than all of them, but each of those other top three are deserving of a starting spot. They also each carry more value than whoever they are likely to get to play second base if Cano leaves. So wouldn't they have been better off keeping last year's outfield intact and using that money toward re-signing Cano? Signing Ellsbury smells like a Plan B, indicating they no longer feel confident that Cano will be back.
The Yankees are coming off a season where they missed the postseason for only the second time in the Jeter-era. The last time that happened was 2008, which prompted the Yankees to go on a spending spree that netted CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeria and A.J. Burnett. Capturing the three biggest names on the free agent market led to a World Series title that year. While the Yankees may once again be outspending everyone else this winter, don't expect anything close to the same results this time. That trio joined an already strong 89 win team. Ellsbury and McCann join a team that is breaking down. It remains to be seen if those two can make up for the production lost by Cano and Granderson and that's without factoring in other free agents they may lose. They also potentially still have major holes at 2B, 3B and in the starting rotation and don't have a lot of room left in the budget to fill them. For all the money the Yankees have spent this off-season, the results won't necessarily make for an improved team.
As for the Red Sox, they should be just fine. While losing Ellsbury to a division rival still stings, they have a capable replacement in Jackie Bradley Jr. While he's not yet ready to take on the All-Star caliber role that Ellsbury leaves behind, he's a plus defender with above average speed that projects to become a solid hitter. His ceiling may not be as high as Ellsbury's once was, but Ellsbury's long term future likely isn't as bright as the best years that are already behind him. Short term, they should be able to make up much of Ellsbury's offensive production with the combination of Bradley Jr. and a full season of Xander Bogaerts, who should take over the starting SS spot. If Will Middlebrooks can rebound to hit like he did in the second half of last season, after returning from a mid-season demotion, the offense shouldn't lose much from the team that led the majors in runs scored last year.
Don't rule out the Red Sox making a play for another outfielder, such as Carlos Beltran. For a player that can provide similar value, they'd be willing to pay a hefty price if it means committing less long term salary. They also have enough prospect depth to swing a trade for another bat if they need it. Or they could hang on to their top prospects and wait for their farm system to bring reinforcements in the near future. The team has options and by not committing long term salary to a veteran on the wrong side of 30, it allows them the flexibility to act on those options. Even if it's a slight step back in the short term, there's no question it's the right move in the long run.
Boston has been preparing for Ellsbury's departure for some time, so it's no surprise to see him go. The outrage coming from fans seems more directed at the fact that he defected to the Yankees (as well as some female fans that are sad to see a player leave that was unofficially considered the team's most handsome guy). In the end, Ellsbury did what most anyone would do in his situation by taking the best offer available. Boston did what was in their best interest by passing on matching a large long term deal that they've learned the hard way to avoid. As for the Yankees? They're just doing what they do best - overreacting to a down season by opening up the check books. Time will tell if the decision will come back to haunt them in the long run, as pretty much all of the other long term commitments on their roster have.
