With what is expected to be the most loaded NBA draft in over a decade on the horizon, the issue of tanking has once again come to the forefront of discussion around the league. Critics will point out that intentionally losing games for the purpose of improving their odds of possibly landing the top pick in the draft is a disservice to the fans and a stain on the league. Others will argue that a high draft pick is the most feasible way for most teams to improve, while developing young talent has more long term value to a lottery team than giving more minutes to a veteran player that might help them win a few more games in the short term.
In the midst of a 21-game losing streak, the Philadelphia 76ers have become the poster child team for tanking this season. Their plan began to unfold before the season started, when they traded away All-Star point guard Jrue Holiday to New Orleans for a package that included rookie Nerlens Noel, who has yet to set foot on the court this season while recovering from ACL surgery, and a top-5 protected draft pick this year (which is shaping up to be a juicy pick unless the Pelicans have some major lottery luck). Then at the trade deadline last month they dealt away Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes. Sure, the second-round picks they netted in those trades could be useful assets in exchange for players that were likely to leave after this season anyway, but those deals were made primarily to strip the roster of veteran talent in order to maximize their chances for a high draft pick this summer.
In response to this perceived issue, people around the league are exploring changes that would prevent tanking. The lottery system was put in place to give teams less incentive to tank, but apparently that's not enough for some people. Since Adam Silver has taken over as the new Commissioner, he has been on the look out for innovative ways to improve the league - which includes ideas to revamp the draft system.
One of the ideas that has floated around recently is the draft "Wheel." The idea was proposed to Silver by Boston Celtics assistant GM Mike Zarren as an alternative the current lottery system. Under the Wheel system, each of the league's 30 teams would be slotted into a specified draft slot each year on a rotating basis, ensuring that every team in the league has the opportunity to select first in the draft once every 30 years. It is also designed to gives teams one top-six pick every five years and at least one top-twelve pick every four years.
- It could lead to the best teams ending up with the best draft picks. Not all the time of course, but if this system were currently in place, would anyone be thrilled if it were the Miami Heat's turn to pick first this year? Coming off of two straight titles (with a good chance to add another this season), is it really in the best interest of the league if the Heat could add an Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker to their loaded championship team?
- The teams currently at the bottom of the lottery are the ones that need the most help. Many of them are in desperate need of a true franchise player to build around and the draft is typically the best place to find that type of player. Instead of bottoming out in hopes of a quick rebuild through the draft, teams may take years to rebuild, depending on when their turn to pick near the top of the draft comes up again. If they whiff on that high draft pick, they may not get another chance for a while. According to the Wheel, the year after picking first overall, that team drops to picking last and will have to wait four years before they pick inside the top 10 again. Sam Presti and the front office of the Oklahoma City Thunder are praised for the way they've constructed a contender with shrewd drafting and salary cap management, while playing in a small market. Their rebuilding effort began with drafting Kevin Durant with the 2nd overall pick in 2007 (back when they were the Seattle Supersonics), but it didn't end there. A young Durant struggled to carry the team at first, but a couple more trips to the lottery landed them Russell Westbrook (4th) and James Harden (3rd), which led to steady improvement. By 2012, the Thunder were playing in the NBA Finals. That path has become the model that most rebuilding teams strive to follow. While a lot of franchises fail to capitalize as well as the Thunder have, this path would be impossible under the Wheel system because bad teams couldn't string together high draft picks in consecutive years.
- Not all draft classes are created equal. This year's class is expected to be loaded with potential All-Star talent, but the 2013 class looks like a barren wasteland by comparison. Last summer, the Cleveland Cavaliers selected Anthony Bennett with the top overall pick. Eight months later, Bennett looks like a bust. Rookies Michael Carter-Williams and Victor Oladipo are off to promising starts, but neither of them have the look of a future star. If your turn on the Wheel to pick high in the draft comes up in a year with a week draft class, that could be a staggering blow to the rebuilding efforts of teams devoid of a franchise player. This is still a concern under today's system as well, but if teams are aware that the incoming draft class is relatively week, they'll have less incentive to tank to begin with, negating the need to drastically overhaul the system.
- Not all markets are created equal either. As we've seen in free agency, the best players are typically drawn to the big markets and warm weather cities. If you're a top college prospect in a year the Minnesota Timberwolves are scheduled to pick first, wouldn't you at least consider staying in school an extra year if you knew the Lakers or Knicks had the top pick the following year? Likewise, a player may pass on entering the draft if a weak team is drafting first and wait until a young contender like the Thunder are scheduled for a top pick.
- As much as people want to eliminate tanking from the league, what impact would that have on the contending teams that rely on making deals at the trade deadline to bolster their roster for a playoff run? While the concept of having more teams fighting for playoff spots sounds great in theory, it conceivably also would make for a boring trade deadline due to a lack of teams looking to sell. Every year we see lottery teams buy out veteran players from the last year of their contracts, allowing those veterans to latch on to a contender. If the incentive of improving their lottery position wasn't in play, teams would be less likely to buy out players. That's bad news for aging veterans that would prefer the chance to go to a team that could potentially win a ring, rather than wallow away the rest of the season on a team with no chance at contending. It also deprives teams of a valuable source of late season improvement.
- Knowing ahead of time where every team is going to be picking takes some of the fun out of trading future draft picks. Celtics fans may be struggling to accept the demise of their favorite team this season, but the silver lining was watching Brooklyn stumble out of the gate knowing they owned the Nets 2014 draft pick. While Brooklyn has since righted the ship, Boston could still end up with a better pick than the Nets expected to be giving up when they traded for Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. Depending on where Brooklyn's spot on the Wheel would have been at the time, this type of trade (which will send Boston first-round picks in '14, '16, and '18, with the option to swap picks in '17) might not even be possible under that system.
Attempting to fix one problem potentially opens the league up to several others. Perhaps if other changes were to be made in conjunction with the Wheel system, the other changes could help mitigate the concerns that I've outlined. Those are the types of ideas the league needs to discuss more if they intend to move forward with the Wheel system, or any other proposed system like it.
The good news is that Adam Silver is open to change and the pursuit of innovative ideas to help improve the league in a variety of ways. I have high hopes that our new Commissioner will implement new changes to make the NBA even better than it already is. It's just a matter of finding the right changes that will work. Perhaps they are on to something with this Wheel concept. It still needs some work, but at least they are on the right track.
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