A strong second half surge, triggered by a revitalized Kevin Garnett's move to the center position and the emergence of Avery Bradley, pushed Boston to their 5th straight Atlantic Division title and the fourth seed in the East. After dispatching a feisty Hawks team in round 1 and outlasting the Sixers in an ugly second round, the Celtics continue to roll toward another Conference title.
Standing in their way is the star studded Miami Heat. In this series the Celtics will be at the disadvantage of not having the best player in the series for the first time this postseason. With their dynamic duo of LeBron James and Dwayne Wade, it's fair to say the Heat easily boast the two best players in the series and perhaps two of the top five players in the league. This is why not many people are giving Boston a chance in this series.True, Miami is missing a key member in Chris Bosh, who is uncertain to play in this series due to an abdominal injury suffered earlier this postseason. A top heavy team like Miami can ill afford to be without one of it's esteemed Big Three. They will need to count on at least one of their role players stepping up to fill the void of their missing All-Star big man, which is something their cast of underachieving role players have not reliably done. That puts a lot of pressure on LeBron and D-Wade to shoulder the load. They are clearly capable of it, but an off game from either of them could open the window a crack for the Celtics to fight their way into this series.
On the other hand, Boston is dealing with it's fair share of injury issues. Pierce is still battling through a sprained MCL. The knee injury has yet to stop him, but at times has clearly slowed him down. That could be an issue on both ends of the court as he attempts to match up with this year's MVP. The painful bone spurs in Ray Allen's ankles have limited him all postseason and hindered his shooting ability. In the postseason he's shooting under 27% from beyond the arc (40% career average) and a mind boggling 65% from the charity stripe (89% career average). Only Chris Webber actually believes that this is merely a coincidence and has nothing to do with the injury, which will require off-season surgery. As unfathomable as it would have sounded a couple of months ago, the biggest loss for the Celtics in this series may be the injury to Avery Bradley. After his dislocated shoulder had popped out for the third time in the postseason, Bradley was finally forced to shut it down for the season and undergo surgery. While he started the year as a little used bench player, he would later emerge in a break out season as a key cog in the starting line up. He has become one of the league's best on the ball defenders and as the season wore on his offense finally started to catch up as well, averaging double digit points and shooting 50% from beyond the arc during the team's post All-Star break run. His hounding pressure defense would have been a vital part of slowing down Dwayne Wade in this series. Ray Allen would struggle to keep up with Wade even if he had healthy ankles and the Celtics bench doesn't offer much support in that role. It will take strong efforts from the likes of Marquis Daniels and Mickael Pietrus to help slow down Miami's explosive wing players. While each has shown that they can be useful on the defensive end, their shooting slumps have made them liabilities on the offensive end. Doc Rivers will have his hands full trying to mix and match lineups to trade offense for defense when possible, but the benefit of a healthy Bradley would have been that he can contribute with the starters on both ends, while freeing up Ray to come off the bench to knock down shots without needing to worry as much about defensive assignments against one of the Heat's star players.
Boston's last round match up against the Sixers was either a defensive showcase or a grueling example of offensive ineptitude, depending on your perspective. Boston ranked 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, while Philadelphia was 3rd, but each team also ranked in the bottom half of the league on offense. Miami's 4th ranked defense is nearly as strong, but their offense is just as strong (6th in offensive efficiency). The loss of Bosh will cut into that effectiveness, but the Celtics won't be able to count on the luxury of their opponent struggling to create offense this time. A silver lining of hope for the Celtics is that they match up fairly well against this Miami team, or at least as well as any team could hope to. They won the regular season series against them after beating the Heat three times in April (ok, so most of the starters sat out the last game, so that one doesn't count). They also have key advantages at two important positions - center and point guard. While KG may be hesitant to call himself a true center, his move to the 5 spot this season has been a revelation. At age 36, Father Time has started to slow him down. That's a problem against some of the more athletic forwards in the game, but he's still spry enough to keep up with centers. Miami lacks a dominant big man that can make the Celtics pay for using a smaller lineup. The Heat are sorely lacking for front court depth without Bosh, so KG should be able to take advantage.
At point guard, Miami is clearly outmatched by Rajon Rondo, who should be able to dominate against Mario Chalmers. This Celtics team honestly believes they would have beaten the Heat last year had Rondo not dislocated his elbow in the series and forced him to play with only one arm the rest of the way. Now healthy, Rondo has the chance to prove them right. Rondo is once again the biggest wild card in this series, as the Celtics fate may reside on which Rondo shows up - the fully engaged one that is capable to taking over a game at any time or the one that can at times look dazed and unmotivated. Boston needs their star point guard to bring his A game every night and aggressively attack the basket while dishing out bucket loads of assists. I said out loud just before Game 7 of the last series that in order for the Celtics to win, Rondo needed to have another classic triple-double performance (seriously, I have witnesses that I called it). He ended up doing just that, which vaulted his team to this spot in the Conference Finals. The key to this series will be how often Rondo can play with the same fire and aggression.Miami has been considered all along to be a top contender, expected to be here, while the Celtics have taken a longer road that at times they've managed to make even harder on themselves. Yet here they are. This Celtics team has too much pride and confidence to back down from the Heat or their two super stars. Regardless of what most everyone is predicting, they believe they can win this series. My heart wants to believe them, but my head just can't trust it. Barring another mind boggling postseason meltdown from LeBron (hey, we've seen it happen before - against Boston no less), the Heat are rightly favored in this series. Expect the Celtics to put up a great fight, perhaps even pushing the series to a full seven games, but I still expect Miami to come out on top.
Not that it matters. The winner of this series just wins the honor of losing to the Spurs in the Finals. Seriously, nobody is beating those guys.
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