The silver lining to a season of misery for Celtics fans was supposed to be the promise of a high lottery pick that would help them obtain the next franchise building block. This is why we put up with the sickening feeling of rooting against our own team en route to a 57 loss season. We hung in there as the losses piled up because of one reason - hope.
Those hopes may have been crushed last night when luck avoided shining on the Celtics once again at the NBA Draft Lottery. Boston entered with the 5th best odds, with a 10.3% chance at winning the top pick and a 33.4% chance at a top three pick. No such luck.
Instead, it was the Cleveland Cavaliers that were the lucky ones. Now that might be an understatement. Despite having only a minuscule 1.7% chance, Cleveland won the lottery for the second straight year and third time in the last four years. They now have had a total of five picks that were in the top-4 of the draft over the past four years. If it's possible to master playing the lottery, the Cavs may have found it.
With Cleveland leapfrogging over them, Boston will have to settle for the 6th pick in the draft. In a draft like this that is supposed to be deep with talent, picking 6th isn't necessarily a terrible thing. They will still have the chance to select a good player that projects to be a solid starter with upside for more. It just probably won't be a franchise player to build around, like they were hoping to get if they managed to snag one of those top three picks. Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid aren't likely to slide to where they will be picking.
Yet hope is not lost. There are several options the Celtics could pursue and now that they know where they stand in the draft order, it will make it easier to plan how to attack the off-season.
One way to go about it is to be content with the 6th pick and select the best available player left on the board. Perhaps they'll get lucky and one of the top four players will slide a couple spots to them, but I wouldn't count on it. However, there will still be talent available. The team is reportedly interested in Aaron Gordon, a Power Forward out of Arizona that has drawn comparisons to Blake Griffin. He needs a lot of work on the offensive end, but he's extremely athletic with a high motor that should help him contribute on the defensive end right away. Julius Randle is a potential double-double machine that helped lead Kentucky to the NCAA Finals. There is also Noah Vonleh, who's stock has been on the rise lately, thanks in part to an impressive combine visit. If Boston does stay in the 6th spot, expect them to select from one of those options.
There's also the slight chance that Boston could dig into their treasure trove of assets to package other picks in an attempt to move up in the draft, but it's unlikely any of the teams in the top three would be willing to trade back.
If the Celtics stick with their current draft position, they should also have cap space available to make a splash in free agency. No, they won't have the room to make a run at top options like LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony, but there are some appealing mid-tier options that could be on the market.
The other option would be straight from the playbook Danny Ainge used in 2007, when Boston traded the 5th overall pick to Seattle for Ray Allen, which then enabled them to trade for Kevin Garnett. With two key moves, the Celtics were able to quickly accelerate their rebuilding effort and transform into a championship team. So how can Boston pull that off now?
Here are 5 steps the Celtics should take to turn the state of the franchise around quickly.
Step 1 - Trade for Kevin Love
The All-Star forward has already made it clear he has no intention of signing an extension with Minnesota. If he's not traded this year then he intends to test free agency next summer, which means it's in the Timberwolves best interests to explore trade options rather than lose their star player for nothing.
In order to win a title in the NBA, it's essential to have one of the top dozen players in the league on your team. Love is one of those players. He was third in the league in PER last season (26.97), third in rebounds per game (12.5) and fourth in scoring (26.1). He is the type of go to scorer this Celtics team is currently lacking and his ability as a big man that can stretch the floor or dive to the basket on pick-and-rolls with Rajon Rondo would be a boon for this offense.
Would the number 6 pick entice Minnesota enough to pry Love away? Since none of the teams picking ahead of Boston are likely destinations for Love, it may be the best they can do if they are looking for a high lottery pick, but other assets will still need to be included. Jared Sullinger seems to be the most likely of Boston's young talent to be included. He plays the same position as Love, which makes him expendable. Brandon Bass and his expiring contract could also be thrown in to help save Boston some money without adding long term salary for Minnesota. Boston still has a large collection of future picks to spruce up the deal if needed to compete with offers from other teams, but it's not likely other teams will be able to offer much more than this.
Boston currently has about $46.5 million committed to salaries this season. Let's pretend they can somehow hypnotize Joel Anthony into declining his $3.8 million player option, dropping their cap figure to $42.7 million. Adding Love ($15.7 million), while subtracting Sullinger ($1.4 million) and Bass ($6.9 million) would put Boston at around $50 million for 8 players. With the salary cap expected to rise to $63.2 million next season, the Celtics still have some room to work with.
Step 2 - Trade for Omer Asik
Houston shopped Asik around prior to last season's trade deadline, but were unable to find anyone willing to meet their demands. That doesn't change the fact that they'd be willing to trade him, as it's clear that playing him alongside Dwight Howard is not something they can do for extended minutes on a regular basis. With only one year left on his contract, the price may not be as high now.
The Rockets signed Asik to a "poison pill" contract two years ago to help steal the restricted free agent away from Chicago. This means that he was paid $5 million in the first two years of the deal and $15 million in year 3 (next season). Don't let that scare you. For salary cap and luxury tax purposes, Asik's contract is only counting $8.3 million. Had Chicago matched Houston's offer, the deal would have counted at it's actual value, which would have put the Bulls over the luxury tax in year 3. Houston (or any team trading for Asik) won't be subjected to that massive cap hit and instead will only have the average annual amount effecting their cap and tax levels.
Asik is one of the better defensive centers in the league. The Celtics are desperately in need of a rim protector, especially if they were adding Love to the mix. While Love is an elite rebounder, he's not known for his defense or shot blocking ability. He'd pair nicely with Asik in the front court. Asik is more limited offensively, but that's a load Love can carry while stretching the floor to allow Asik to do the dirty work in the paint. Love is an elite rebounder, but Asik may be even better. He hasn't played the kind of minutes needed to rank near the top of the league in rebounding, but his rebound rate (21.7) was second best in the league.
Given the Rockets willingness to trade him and the fact he only has one year left on his deal, Asik should be attainable for a modest price. Olynyk showed some potential in his rookie season, so perhaps Houston can be convinced that his shooting ability would make him a great fit next to Howard. Throw in one of their collection of future draft picks (either their own next year, 2015 Clippers pick or 2016 Nets pick) and that should be enough to get a deal done.
Asik's cap hit ($8.6 million) minus Olynyk's deal ($2.1 million) would bring the team's salary to around $56.5 million.
Step 3 - Draft a wing scorer with the 17th pick
Boston owns Brooklyn's first-round pick this year, which is slotted for the 17th selection. As long as it's not used as an asset in another deal, the Celtics could use a wing scorer to bring off the bench. P.J. Harrison could be a fit and has been mentioned as an option in several mock drafts. He can shoot from deep and should be able to step in and contribute off the bench in a scoring role for a team that lacks three-point shooting. He may struggle on defense, but the C's will still have Avery Bradley as their lock down defender at the two spot. Coach Brad Stevens can play the two interchangeably, depending on match up and game situation.
Rodney Hood, James Young, T.J. Warren and Cleanthony Early are also wing options that can score that could be options to look at in this spot.
The 17th pick earns $1.3 million in the first year of their contract, bringing our team total to about $57.8 million.
Step 4 - Re-sign Avery Bradley and other cheap options
Bradley will be a restricted free agent this summer, with Boston extending a $3.5 million qualifying offer. Given his reputation as one of the league's best two-guard defenders, other teams may give consideration to extending an offer sheet. As long as the price doesn't go too high then Boston will likely match, but that would also effect their salary cap hit, leaving them with less room to work with. For arguments sake, let's say Bradley ends up making around $5 million in the first year of his next deal.
Boston will have decisions to make on young talent like Vitor Faverani, Phil Pressey and Jerrod Bayless. None of them are all that expensive, but re-signing all of them would likely take them over the cap. Since the team owns Bird Rights on each of them, this should not be a problem, but it limits what they can do after that.
If all four of these players are back at modest raises, plus team options for Chris Johnson and Chris Babb ($915K), the team now has 12 players and would be capped out.
Step 5 - Trade Gerald Wallace to free up more cap room!
Just kidding, nobody is taking on the 2 years and over $20 million left on that albatross of a contract. The only way they unload his contract is by paying another team with a collection of future draft picks to take this bad contract off their hands. Hey, it worked for Golden State last year, allowing them the cap space to sign Andre Iguodala.
In a perfect world, they'd find a way to dump Wallace's contract and make a run at a restricted free agent like Gordon Hayward. Could the Celtics steal him away from Utah with a poison pill deal? Given Utah's aversion to the luxury tax, it's not all that far fetched, but can't happen unless Boston can rid themselves of Wallace's toxic contract. Good luck with that.
Ok, so if that isn't a reasonable option, what is our final step?
Step 5 - Bring back The Truth!
Celtics fans found it difficult to say good-bye when Paul Pierce was traded, along with Kevin Garnett, to the Nets last off-season. Could a reunion be on the horizon? Pierce still bleeds green and would love to finish his career in Boston. The problem is, late in his career he also wants to play for a contender. As the team currently stands in rebuilding mode, Boston would not be the place for Pierce at this stage of his career, but if the above moves were to be made to put the Celtics in position to contend, Pierce would be more open to a return on a team friendly deal. At this point, Boston would be up against the cap, but would still have their full mid-level exception to use.
Pierce is slowing down in his old age, but proved in the postseason that he's still capable of stepping up in big moments. As long as he's not being counted on to lead the team in scoring, he'd be a fine addition to this roster. He also brings some much needed veteran leadership. Love would be the best player and Rondo is now the captain, but neither of them are proven leaders. The old captain would be a strong voice in the locker room to help guide a young team.
So here's what the roster would look like after these moves.
Starters
PG - Rajon Rondo
SG - Avery Bradley
SF - Jeff Green
PF - Kevin Love
C - Omer Asik
Bench
Paul Pierce
Gerald Wallace
Jerryd Bayless
Vitor Favorani
Phil Pressey
Chris Johnson
Chris Babb
Rookie first round-pick
Rookie second-round pick
Is that a championship caliber roster? Probably not, but in a weak Eastern Conference, this team is nearly a lock as a playoff team that could make some noise in the postseason. Rondo, Love and Asik form a solid core that the team could add to in the future, so if they can lock up all of them long term then they'll have a foundation to build on. Danny Ainge says he wants to set off some fireworks this summer. These steps would certainly qualify. Now let's watch him set them off and enjoy the view.
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