Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Things I Noticed: Week 14

Winter is coming.  No wait, that's a line from Game of Thrones.  In the NFL, winter is already here!  At least four games this week were impacted by snow, while a couple others endured freezing temperatures. While snow games can be fun to watch, they don't seem to be a lot of fun to play in.  Weather can also be responsible for some unpredictable results and some really fluky games.  Keep that in mind, with this year's Super Bowl being played in New Jersey.  The NFL is gambling that they can get away with holding the biggest game of the year in the large market NY area without it being impacted by severe weather conditions.  If a snowstorm wrecks havoc over the Super Bowl the way it did several games this week, it could prove to be a major mistake for the league.

Here are some things I noticed this week:
  • By the end of Thursday nights game, the Jacksonville Jaguars found themselves on an AFC best 3 game win streak.  Wait, what??  Yes, it's true.  Sure, they've only won four all season, but they are on a roll right now.  Technically they are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot.  As Lloyd Christmas would say, so you're saying there's a chance!
  • A team without a chance on the other hand is the two win Texans, who somehow went from Super
    Bowl contender to arguably the worst team in the league over the course of the season.  Houston's season has been a train wreck ever since Matt Schuab forgot how to throw to his own teammates, Arian Foster went down with a season ending injury and Gary Kubiak's coaching... well wait, that won't be a problem anymore.  After 11 straight losses, the Texans fired Kubiak.  The #1 pick in the draft and a new coaching staff next season may be all the Texans need to get back in the mix by next season.
  • The Patriots survived thanks to a thrilling comeback that required two TDs in the final minute of the game.  After Tom Brady connected with Julian Edelman to make it a one score game, New England successfully converted an on-side kick to get the ball back.  The ball may not have even made it the required 10-yards on the kick, but a Browns player was the first to touch it, allowing the Patriots to pounce on it.  A personal foul penalty called against Cleveland on Edelman's TD catch gave the Patriots an extra 15 yards on the kick-off, so after the recovery the Pats needed to drive only 40 yards to the end zone for the game winning score. 
    • The Pats were also aided by a questionable pass interference call in the end zone that gave them a first and goal from the 1-yard line.  The penalty was a bit ticky tacky (see, I can point it out even when it goes in favor of my team!), but there was contact on the play. Defensive back Leon McFadden seemed to give receiver Josh Boyce a little push from behind, so perhaps the extension of his arms during contact is what drew the referee's attention.  One play later, Danny Amendola scored on a 1-yard catch to put New England ahead.
  • Even after that dramatic comeback, the Patriots were still left holding their breath after giving Cleveland the ball back with 31 seconds left.  Jason Campbell completed three passes that quickly put the Browns in Patriots territory.  After completing a 13 yard pass down the middle of the field to Jordan Cameron, Campbell hurried the offense to the line in time to spike the ball with 1 second left. That set up Cleveland with a chance to win the game on a 58-yard field goal.  The kick was on line, but fell a few yards short.  Only a team from Cleveland could suffer the heartbreak of giving up a miracle comeback in the final minute, only to see their own improbable comeback fall just short.
  • Despite the victory, the Patriots could not have been in high spirits after the game.  First of all, because it never should have taken such a dramatic comeback to beat the Browns, but mostly because the victory came at a heavy cost.  Rob Gronkowski took a vicious hit to the knee after a 21-yard catch and collapsed to the ground in agonizing pain.  We would later find out that Gronk tore both his ACL and MCL on the play, ending his season and New England's Super Bowl hopes.  They'll still win the division and make the playoffs, but it's hard to imagine them getting very far given what we saw from this offense the first half of the season without Gronkowski.
    • New England averaged 32 points per game with Gronk on the field, but that average was only 20.8 earlier this season when the team was without their star tight end.  There is a noticeable difference in Brady's numbers as well.  With Gronk on the field, Brady has completed 64.4% of his passes with a 7.5 YPA and 71.1 Total QBR.  In the games without Gronk, Brady's numbers drop to 58% completions, 6.5 YPA and 55.0 Total QBR. 
  • Josh Gordon was finally limited this week.  By that of course I mean he was limited to less than 200 receiving yards for the first time in three weeks.  He still managed 7 catches for 151 yards, including an 80-yard TD catch.  I'm not saying he's the best receiver in football (that's clearly still Calvin Johnson), but Gordon is in the middle of one of the best stretches we've ever seen by a receiver.  Not just because he's put up 649 receiving yards in his last three games, but because he's doing this with Jason Campbell and Brandon Weeden as his quarterbacks!  Pretty sure Jerry Rice never had that problem.
  • A heavy blizzard in Philadelphia made for some impossible playing conditions in the first half of the Eagles-Lions game, which explains some of the sloppy play.  Any deep pass attempt fluttered in the wind and kicking was out of the question.  Neither team bothered to attempt a field goal.  After touchdowns, both sides found the odds of going for two better than kicking an extra point attempt. Detroit tried kicking one extra point and the kick ended up getting blocked.  The weather did let up slightly in the second half, but it was still ugly out there.
  • Reggie Bush was expected to be active, but slipped in the snow during pre-game warm ups and re-injured himself.  His unexpected absence ruined countless fantasy teams, while giving a boost to anyone that bet on Joique Bell (69 rushing yards, 58 receiving yards, 1 TD).  Bell also lost two fumbles, but we can forgive players for having trouble holding on to the ball in this game.
  • Apparently the only thing that can stop Nick Foles is Mother Nature.  The snowstorm can at least be partially blamed for his sub par performance.  Foles throws his first INT of the season, ending his streak at 19 TDs without a pick, which falls one short of Peyton Manning's record streak to start a season (which Manning set earlier this year).
  • LeSean McCoy set a franchise record for rushing yards (217) and added a pair of TDs to ensure the
    Eagles would extend their winning streak to five games.  You would think that someone like Shady McCoy, who relies so much on speed and making quick cuts, would struggle to navigate a field that was covered with nearly a foot of snow.  Apparently not!
  • Andy Dalton threw three TD passes and ran another in for a score himself as the Bengals trounced the Colts in a game that could prove vital for playoff seeding.  Cincinnati is currently a game ahead of the Colts for the third seed in the AFC and now also owns the tie breaker between them.  They are also only a game back of New England, who they also own a tie breaker over, so the #2 seed is within reach. 
  • Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis was awarded a touchdown after review on a key fourth and goal run.  The Law Firm tripped and fell, landing at least a yard short of the end zone, before sliding past the goal line.  Originally he was ruled down short of the goal line, but officials reversed the decision by determining that he was not touched by a defender prior to going to the ground.  So since he wasn't down by contact, he was allowed to be credited with the extra yard that he picked up after hitting the ground.  Sure, nobody grabbed his foot to cause him to stumble.  He probably just tripped over that white line on the field.
  • Andrew Luck (326 yards, 4 TDs) looked good on the stat sheet, but his defense couldn't keep his Colts in the game.  Indianapolis managed to back into the playoffs anyway, becoming the first team to clinch their division thanks to the Titans losing later that afternoon.  Figures that the worst of the AFC division winners is the first to officially clinch their division.
  • Green Bay overcame a double-digit halftime deficit to win for the first time since Aaron Rodgers broke his collar bone six weeks ago.  The win keeps the Packers in the hunt and increases the odds that Rodgers may make it back on the field again this season.  A loss could have put them far enough back in the race that there would be no reason to bring him back at all this year.
  • The Packers winning score was set up by a Matt Ryan fumble that was recovered by the Packers at Atlanta's 21-yard line early in the 4th quarter.  It took only four plays to get in the end zone with a Matt Flynn pass to Andrew Quarless.  When Atlanta had one last chance to get in field goal range for a winning kick, Ryan threw a game ending INT that spoiled their comeback attempt.
  • Geno Smith bounced back from a string of awful performances with one of the best performances of his young career (219 yards, 1 TD, 50 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD).  The Jets put up a season best 37 points to take down the Raiders and inch back closer to .500 for the season.
  • The Jets got some help from their special teams too, when Antonio Allen recovered a blocked punt in the end zone for a score.
  • Oakland started Matt McGloin at QB, but gave a cameo appearance to Terrell Pryor.  No injury was reported for McGloin, as the Raiders instead explained they put Pryor in the game to help offset the lack of a running game for a team that was missing it's top three running backs and was forced to start fullback Marcel Reece in the backfield.  McGloin would return after sitting out one series, so apparently the coaching staff didn't like how the experiment was going. 
  • Ryan Tannehill had never played a game in the snow before, but you'd hardly know if from his performance in leading the Dolphins to a win (200 yards, 3 TDs - plus he scrambled for a career high 56 rushing yards).
    • Tannehill was 8 for 10 passing in the red zone, with 3 TDs.  It's only the second time in the past five years that the Steelers defense has allowed 3 passing TDs in the red zone in one game.
  • The loss drops Pittsburgh to 5-8, which means they need to win out the rest of their schedule to avoid the first losing season of Ben Roethlisberger's career.  
  • Bobby Rainey took a hand-off on the second play of the game and ran 80 yards for an early TD.  The day didn't end up getting much better for Buffalo, as the Bucs cruised to an easy win.  Tampa Bay has now won four of their last five games, after starting the season 0-8.  If we could just toss out the entire first half of the season, the Bucs and Jaguars would be two of the league's best teams!
  • The Bills doomed themselves in the second quarter by turning the ball over three times in four possessions.  Buffalo has now lost 5 of their last 6 games and have clinched their 9th straight losing season.  While they are not technically eliminated from making the postseason yet, they have essentially locked up extending the league's longest playoff drought to 14 seasons.
  • Kansas City halted their 3 game skid with a dominating victory over Washington.  Jamaal Charles
    rushed for 151 yards and a TD, while also catching a pass for another score.  What changed to get the Chiefs back on track?  The schedule.  Now that they were back to playing one of the league's doormat teams, they got back to looking like world beaters.
  • In anticipation that he will inevitably be fired after this season (if not sooner), Washington head coach Mike Shanahan revealed that he was close to quitting last season, due to ongoing conflict with team owner Dan Snyder, before a remarkable 7 game win streak saved their season and launched them into the postseason.  Great, so when he gets handed a pink slip he can claim that he wanted out anyway.
  • After both teams offenses were relatively stagnant through three quarters on a snowy afternoon, the Vikings and Ravens set a record with 6 lead changes in a shoot out 4th quarter.  A staggering five TDs were put on the scoreboard between the two teams in the final 2:05 of the game!  That's 125 seconds to put up 35 points!  Yup, that's a record too.  The final lead change came with four seconds left, when Joe Flacco capped a 5-play, 40-yard drive with a TD pass to rookie Marlon Brown.
  • Baltimore thought they had put the game away with a 77-yard kick-off return from Jacoby Jones that put the Ravens ahead with 1:16 to play.  There was no opposing coach stepping on the field to impede his path this time (sorry, Steelers fans.  Had to).  The game was far from over yet though, as Cordarrelle Patterson took a Matt Cassel pass 79-yards to answer that score.  That left Flacco and the Ravens only 45 seconds for their game winning drive.  Flacco didn't even need all of that.  With the way this game went, the biggest surprise may have been that the Vikings couldn't find a way to score in the final four seconds.
  • According to Adrian Peterson's twitter page, unruly Ravens fans threw snow balls from the stands. Correction, not snow balls.  ICE BALLS!  That wasn't even the worst part of Peterson's day, as the reigning MVP missed most of the game after a foot injury in the second quarter knocked him out. Which explains why he had time to sit around observing the snow ball fight in the stands.
  • Who says Peyton Manning can't play in cold weather?  Wait, I've said that before... several times.  And there are plenty of examples to point out to support that theory, but this week wasn't one of them.  Not after he lit up the Titans for 397 yards and 4 TDs.  Manning now has 45 passing TDs this season.  He needs only 5 more over this final three games to match Tom Brady's record from the 2007 season.  Denver has already scored 515 points this season, easily putting them on pace to break the Patriots record for points scored in a season as well.  
  • Matt Prater set an NFL record with a 64-yard FG to end the first half.  Sure, it came in the thin air in
    Denver, but the 18-degree temperatures had to have offset some of the advantage from kicking at high altitude, right?
  • Denver set a franchise record for first downs in a game with 39.  Manning completed 39 passes to set another franchise record and his 59 attempts tied the most in franchise history.
  • The win clinched a playoff spot for the Broncos.  It's Manning's 13th career playoff appearance, which sets a new record for a quarterback.  He previously had been tied at 12 with Brett Favre.  Tom Brady is on the verge of making the postseason for the 11th time in 13 seasons as a starter, making him the closest to catching Manning.
  • The loss for the Titans knocked them out of contention for the AFC South title and makes them a long shot for a postseason spot.  
  • Arizona ended an 8 game losing streak against NFC West opponents by putting a beat down on the Rams.  Carson Palmer was nearly flawless, completing 27 of 32 passes for 269 yards and a TD.  He had a Total QBR of 96.0, bringing his season average up over 50.0 for the first time all season.  At 50.4, Palmer can now officially be considered (barely) better than average!
  • Rookie receiver Tavon Austin continue to break off big plays, while the Rams continue to baffle us by refusing to find more ways to involve him on offense.  This week he was given one carry, which he ran 56 yards to help put the Rams in position for their only TD of the game (a 1-yard score punched in by Zac Stacy).  Austin caught one pass for a meager 9 yards, but was only targeted 3 times.  Is there some rule that St. Louis can only use their best offensive weapon a certain number of times per game?  Is it like one of those video games where you need to build up your momentum meter to a certain point before unleashing your special finishing move?
  • Eli Manning dropped to 0-3 in his career against Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers team he refused to play for.  You may remember after the 2004 draft that Manning forced his way into a trade that landed him in New York instead of San Diego.  Chargers fans certainly haven't forgotten and they make sure to let Eli hear about it anytime he visits.  
  • Seattle still seems likely to capture the NFC West title, but the 49ers weren't about to let them clinch it in their house.  San Francisco denied the Seahawks the chance to clinch for at least another week by pulling out a late victory.  Frank Gore ripped off a 51-yard run to help set up the 49ers game winning FG with 26 seconds left.
  • Marshawn Lynch was able to find the end zone again for the third time in two games this season against the Niners, but aside from that he was mostly kept in check.  He rushed for 72 yards, but only 22 of those came after halftime.  The Niners still have not allowed an opposing running back to rush for over 100 yards against them (although they've had several close calls - including Lynch in their Week 2 match up).
  • During NBC's player introductions during the 1st quarter, Panthers DE Greg Hardy introduced himself
    as Kraken from Hogwarts.  Wait, I thought they only played Quidditch at that school, not football! Also, if he were a real wizard then he would have been able to make his defense stop Drew Brees from throwing TD passes.
  • The magic appears to have run out on Carolina's eight game win streak.  Drew Brees (313 yards, 4 TDs) became only the 5th QB in history to surpass 50,000 career passing yards on his way to picking apart the Panthers.  
  • New Orleans is the first team this season to score over 24 points against this Panthers defense, which leads the league with only 14.5 points allowed per game.
  • Long after all the fantasy owners that drafted him gave up on him by either trading him for 50 cents on the dollar or relegating him to their imaginary benches, Marques Colston finally came through with a big game (125 yards, 2 TDs).  It's weeks like this that make people want to believe he's one of the top 20 receivers in the league.  The problem is that Brees spreads the ball around so much that Colston often gets lost in the mix.
  • On a night where the Bears retired the number of legendary coach Mike Ditka, Josh McCown led Chicago to victory with 348 yards and 4 TDs.  He also launched himself into the end zone for another score, which must have had Bears fans holding their breath as McCown was hit in a dangerous mid-air collision.  Chilling weather conditions became a problem for many QBs this week, but facing the Cowboys league worst pass defense (298 passing yards allowed per game!) more than offset the cold.
  • The Bears will have a difficult decision to make once Jay Cutler is ruled healthy enough to play again, especially if Chicago ends up making the playoffs.  It may be a small sample size, as McCown has only played 7 games (5 starts) this season, but he leads the league in Total QBR at 85.7.  Cutler's Total QBR is 63.2 this season (still good for a respectable 10th place in the league).  Cutler has enough of a track record that he deserves a shot at his starting job back when he's ready, as long as he can play in at least one game before the end of the regular season.  Next year is a different story though.  Cutler is in the last year of his current contract and will likely demand another deal that could make him very expensive.  McCown will come much cheaper and has proved capable of running the team.  The cap hit on Cutler's contract this year is $10.3 million, while McCown's is only $580K. McCown will also be a free agent after this season, but isn't likely to make anywhere near as much as Cutler.  Then again, Cutler is four years younger and the 34 year old McCown is a career backup having an out of nowhere career season.  The future of both QBs may come down to whether or not the Bears make the playoffs, who ends up getting to start in the postseason and how they perform when giving that opportunity.
    • Also, don't overlook the idea of another team making the decision easy by grossly overpaying McCown.  This is a league where Matt Flynn once got a 3 years, $26 million deal based on one good game (in a meaningless Week 17 game no less).
  • Alshon Jefferey made another ridiculous circus catch for a 25-yard TD.  Double covered and fading back in the corner of the end zone, Jefferey still managed to get his mitts on the ball and keep both feet in bounds.  
  • Tony Romo is 12-17 in the month of December after the Cowboys got blown out in the Windy City. It wasn't all Romo's fault, as he did throw 3 TD passes and didn't turn the ball over.  But he also completed barely half of his pass attempts (11 for 20) and the Cowboys were only 5 of 10 converting third downs.  Really it was the defense that blew it though.  Chicago put points on the board in all 8 of their possessions in the game, excluding the final kneel down when the Bears got the ball back for the final six seconds of the game.  The Dallas defense forced zero turnovers or punts the entire game and only recorded one sack.  Romo may not have been flawless, but it would have taken a near perfect effort just to keep up with Chicago in this game, so don't put the blame on him.
  • Chicago's league worst rush defense gave up 100+ yards to an opposing running back for a record sixth straight game.  DeMarco Murray piled up 146 yards against them, which makes you wonder why Dallas didn't hand them the ball more than 18 times.  He's averaging 8.1 yards per carry!  Regardless of the score, you have to keep him more involved.
  • NFL RedZone reported that 85 TDs were scored league wide during the Sunday afternoon games, which is the most ever scored in the league on a single Sunday afternoon.  The previous record had been 81.  Counting the Sunday Night game, there were 90 TDs scored on Sunday, which is the most for a single day in league history.

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