Some players are prone to struggle when they have a career milestone in their sights. Whether the pressure starts to get to them or they just end up over thinking things, a prolonged drought as the world anxiously awaits the breakthrough moment that makes history isn't unusual. Albert Pujols is not one of those players. On the verge of one of baseball's most cherished milestones, the Angels slugger went deep in three of his past five games, including a pair of homers last night, to become the 26th member of the 500 Home Run Club.
Rumors of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. Concerns of Pujols' decline began to grow from the moment he signed an outrageous 10-year, $240 million deal with the Angels. In his first two seasons in LA, Pujols battled injuries and saw his production sharply decline. This year he's been healthy so far (knock on wood) and appears poised to remind us how great a hitter he is.
How great has Pujols been in his career? He's the third youngest player to reach the 500 HR mark (34 years, 96 days) and only seven players joined the club in less at-bats than the 7,390 that it took Pujols. He's also on the verge of joining even more exclusive territory. Of the members of the 500 HR Club, only three of them (Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx) hit over .300/.400/.600 for their careers. Pujols currently sits at .321/.409/.599, barely missing the cut. Granted we're only 20 games into this season, but he's slugging .619 so far, so if he keeps it up at anything close to that rate he'll join that group by season's end. Of course some inevitable decline at the tail end of his career could drag him back down under those thresholds. Hey, there's a reason only three guys have ever done it! But the fact that we're talking about it as a possibility is pretty amazing.
Pujols is a three-time MVP that finished in the top five in voting for the award in each of his first 11 seasons, all in St. Louis. He's compiled a 94.1 WAR over his career (per Baseball-Reference), which is second among active players and 26th all time for position players. That's an average of 7.1 WAR per year through his first 13 seasons, despite a career worst year (1.9 WAR) last season dragging him down. His .599 slugging % is the 7th best ever and he's 8th in career OPS (1.008). So yeah, he's pretty good.
As MLB attempts to move away from the steroid era, we may start seeing less players join the 500 Club. At least a handful of it's current members are either proven steroid users or at least widely suspected of it. Pujols is not one of them, which makes achieving this accomplishment as one of the clean players in this era even more impressive. There aren't many active hitters that are closing in on that mark that have a realistic shot at it. Adam Dunn is the closest with 444, but if he continues to have his batting average flirt with the Mendoza Line, you have to wonder if he'll have a permanent spot in the lineup long enough to get there. David Ortiz (435) is still going strong and is signed through at least next season (with two additional club option years after), but at age 38 you have to wonder when his production will drop off. Jason Giambi (438 - can you believe he's still playing??) and Paul Konerko (434) are part time players that likely don't have enough at-bats left in the tank to get there. Alfonso Soriano (410) is the only other active player that has over 400 career HRs and he's 38 years old. Perhaps some of the game's bright young power-hitting stars, such as Giancarlo Stanton or Bryce Harper, could get there someday, but right now they aren't even close enough to consider.
There was a time not long ago when many hoped Pujols could be the one to dethrone Barry Bonds as the Home Run King and bring some legitimacy back to the record. That now appears to be a long shot, as he'd need to average over 32 HRs per season over the remaining 8 years of his contract (counting this one). He's well on his way to reaching that total this season and could have a couple more like it, but it's not reasonable to expect he'll average that many for that long. But he could get to 600, which is a level only eight players have ever reached. He'd need to average only about 12.5 HRs per year the rest of his career to do that, so that's well within reason. What about 700? Can he average close to 25 per year the rest of the way? He'd need at least a couple more big seasons to make up for the inevitable decline years at the end of his career where he's unlikely to come close to that, but it's not out of the question that he could do what only three other players have done.
There are many great players in the game of baseball, but there is only one Albert Pujols. He's already accomplished a lot in his legendary career, but he's not done yet. Sure, his contract will become an albatross at some point over it's remaining 7+ years, but he's showing early on this season that he's still got something left in the tank. Don't count him out yet. Pujols is still a force to be reckoned with.
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