The Legend of Mike Trout

Every year we hear about hyped prospects that are expected to take the league by storm and become the next big thing.  Often times young players struggle after making their major league debuts, whether it be from failure to make adjustments to big league opponents or from being crushed under the heavy pressure unfairly put upon them.  Other times these youngsters produce just fine, yet fail to live up to people's unrealistic expectations.

Then there are those that exceed even our wildest expectations and become legitimate superstars right from the start.  Mike Trout is one of those players.

Since Trout received his call up to the majors to join the LA Angels on April 28th he has arguably been the best player in baseball.  Think about that for a moment.  A 20 year old rookie may already have become the best hitter in the game!  Check out his insane hitting stats so far this season: .347/.409/.599.  That batting average leads the American League.  He leads the majors in Runs (83) and Steals (33) by fairly comfortable margins and his 6.5 WAR (per FanGraphs) also leads all major league players.  All this despite not even getting called up to the majors until the end of April!  He essentially missed a month of the season and still has managed to lead the league in several major categories. 

Trout is currently a mere decimal point shy of a .600 slugging percentage.  If he were to finish above that mark at the end of the season, he will become just the 16th center fielder in history to slug at least .600.  Any time you can put your name in historical context along with names like Ty Cobb, Joe DiMaggio, Hank Aaron and Mickey Mantle, people are bound to take notice.  It should also be noted that none of those legendary Hall of Famers accomplished that mark as a 20 year old rookie.

Trout is a five tool player, with his speed being one of his most dangerous assets.  This is shown not only on the base paths, with his league leading steals total, but in his ability to run out infield hits and turn singles into doubles.  It's also a big asset in the field, where he has played at an elite level defensively while patrolling center field.  His 7.8 UZR (Ulitmate Zone Rating) ranks 9th among major league outfielders and his impressive range is shown by his major league leading 11.2 RngR (Range Rating).  Trout basically dominates in every aspect of the game.

When is the last time we saw a rookie leading the pack in the MVP race?  Ichiro is the last player to win the award as a rookie, but his .350/.381/.457 slash line and 6.1 WAR from that season isn't nearly as impressive as what Trout has done so far.  He also entered the league at a significantly older age (28) after having played multiple professional seasons in Japan.  Fred Lynn's rookie season in 1974 (.331/.401/.566, 7.3 WAR) is the most recent close comparison and barring a drastic drop off in production over the next couple months, Trout should finish with numbers superior to Lynn's. 

Trout wasn't the only one that came into the season with big expectations.  Washington's Bryce Harper arrived with even more hype than Trout, who was somewhat under the radar for a while thanks to Harper's shadow.  That's changed now that Trout's scorching hitting has forced him to the front of the rookie spotlight.  Harper is having an impressive season of his own, but still falls well short of what Trout has done.  His .258/.332/.420 line and 1.6 WAR are more than respectable for a rookie.  In fact, his current .753 OPS would rank him as the 4th highest of all time for 19 year old rookies with a minimum of 400 plate appearances (Harper only has 364 so far, but will most likely pass the 400 threshold).  Also, keep in mind that Harper is a year younger than Trout.  When Trout made a brief appearance as a 19 year old last year, he didn't fair nearly as well as Harper is now.  It's a small sample size, as Harper has already played more than twice as many games this year as Trout did last season, but it goes to show that with talent like his, Harper could see a similar explosion next year.  In the long run, both players project to be among the league's best for years to come, but I'd take Trout if I were to pick between them.  Harper has more upside in the power categories, but Trout's speed and slightly better defense make him the better all around player.

Back in Spring Training, I picked the heavily hyped Angels (after their free agency spending spree that acquired Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson) as a surprise team to miss the playoffs.  Even with the additional Wild Card, I thought the Angel's decision to break camp with Trout stuck in the minors in favor of overpaid declining veterans, like Bobby Abreu and Vernon Wells, could cost them a couple of games early in the season and be the difference between playing in October or going home early.  Even then, I had no idea of the impact Trout would eventually have.  As it turns out, I may have been right about him being the difference maker.  The Angels got off to a disappointing 6-14 start in April, before finally calling up Trout on the 28th.  Since then, the team has dramatically improved to their current 57-49 record, which puts them in the second Wild Card spot.  Of course some of that has to do with other factors, most notably the early season struggles of Pujols, but it's hard to ignore the spark that Trout's arrival gave to the team.  The Abreu/Wells tandem that he essentially replaced has been replacement level value or worse, while Trout has been worth at least 6 wins to this team.  By keeping him toiling away in the minors for most of April, the Angels essentially cost themselves about 2 wins.  With three teams currently within a game and a half of them, those extra early season losses could become a factor in a tight race.

How valuable has Trout been?  Well, for those of you that play fantasy baseball, Trout is the highest rated player in the game.  Do I need to remind you that this is despite not even playing for the first month of the year?  I picked him up in both of my leagues as soon as he became available and he's helped carry my team into contention, despite devastating injuries to my first round picks in each league (Kemp, Longoria).  In one of those leagues I recently traded Trout for Felix Herndandez, Madison Bumgardner and Jonathan Papelbon.  A kings ransom, yet I was still a bit hesitant to pull the trigger on that deal.  Not that you care about my fantasy team, I'm just illustrating how insanely valuable he has been.

There's still a lot of baseball to be played this season.  As the dog days of summer drag on, it's not out of the question that Trout could hit the proverbial rookie wall and see his numbers decline.  It's also possible that he is a special player that is immune to such types of extended slumps and proves capable of producing through the uncharted territory of the grueling major league schedule.  Regardless of how his season ends, his career is just beginning.  Believe it or not, he's likely to improve.  His best is yet to come.