The Eastern Conference has been extremely top heavy this season. Only three teams currently have winning records, while the rest of the conference is a wasteland littered with underachievers and rebuilding teams.
The Atlantic Division has been historically pathetic, with a .357 combined winning percentage. The worst combined winning percentage in league history is .384 (1970-71 Central Division). The Toronto Raptors currently lead the Atlantic with an 11-15 record (.423) that puts them on pace to be the worst division winner ever. With what is expected to be the most loaded draft class in a decade coming up, the Atlantic appears to be the division nobody wants to win.
That's right, Boston. You should not be rooting for your Celtics to win the division. Blasphemy! Hey, I get the reluctance to cheer against your own team, but as long as the NBA rewards losing teams with high lottery picks, losing is actually in the best long term interest of the team.
Tanking is such an ugly word, but for a rebuilding team it can be a necessity. Make no mistake, the Celtics are in full rebuilding mode. Despite being only percentage points behind Toronto for the division title, which by default would award them with the 4th seed in the East, this is not a championship caliber team. Boston (12-17) is half a game behind Toronto, but the Raptors -0.2 point differential (a better indicator of future results than the actual won-loss record) would point to them being closer to a .500 team. They've also improved since ridding themselves of the inefficient Rudy Gay earlier this month, winning five of their past eight contests.
The Celtics, with their -1.9 point differential, are what their record says they are. Coach Brad Stevens has them hustling on defense to post a respectable 102.0 defensive efficiency rating thus far, but that's influenced by a soft schedule. The average winning percentage of their opponents thus far has been only .470 this season. The offense ranks 23rd in efficiency, scoring 99.4 points per 100 possessions. The eventual return of Rajon Rondo will undoubtedly help, but we're also talking about a guard that doesn't shoot well from outside and has never proven himself to be a reliable go to scorer. Racking up the assists only works if your teammates can hit shots.
The worst place to be in the NBA is what I like to call no-man's land. This is when teams annually fight for one of the bottom playoff seeds without ever showing signs of improvement. They aren't getting high lottery picks and they aren't really contenders. It's essentially the state of purgatory the Bucks have been stuck in for years. Winning the Atlantic takes the Celtics out of the lottery, but doesn't come close to making them a contender. Sure, they'd have a puncher's chance against a 5th seed in the first round, but they wouldn't have a prayer in a seven game series against the Heat or Pacers.
There are multiple ways to rebuild in the NBA, but acquiring a high draft pick is the most realistic one for this team. It's a star driven league, so you need at least one of those stars to win a title. History has shown us that, with rare exception, championships are won by teams led by one of the top dozen players in the league. The Celtics don't currently have that type of player. Let's face it, Boston has never been a prime destination for NBA free agents and the Celtics won't have cap space to lure in a star anyway. Perhaps you can swing a blockbuster trade for a star, as the Celtics did in 2007 when they acquired Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. But let's remember that it took the number five overall pick in that year's draft to pry Allen away from Seattle. The Celtics don't have the assets to pull off that kind of trade unless they have a high draft pick to use as bait.
Scouts are drooling over the potential of this year's top prospects. There are few that don't believe that Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle or Jabari Parker aren't destined for greatness. There is always risk with prospects, but that shouldn't scare teams away from wanting to draft them. We can't be certain how any of these prospects will pan out, but in sports you have to build your strategy based on what's most likely to happen. There are no guarantees, but you calculate the risks and rewards in order to determine the best path toward success. Drafting a young, cost effective star is the best way to get back to being a contender.
To be clear, this is not to suggest that the team intentionally try to lose. You don't want your players to have that type of mentality, as it can build a losing culture in your organization. But the goal for the organization as a whole shouldn't be to go all out for a playoff spot either. The coaching staff can find creative ways to experiment with rotations designed toward developing their young players rather than leaning on veterans that don't have a long term future with this team, while GM Danny Ainge may help find new homes for some of those veterans.
The idea isn't to try to be the worst team in the league. The draft lottery does nothing to guarantee the top pick anyway, as long time Celtics fans know all too well. Luckily, this isn't like the Tim Duncan draft, where there is one franchise player followed by a steep drop off in talent. This draft could potentially have as many as a handful of franchise caliber prospects. There may be no phenom the likes of LeBron James, but the depth of talent with All-Star upside is as deep as we've seen since that 2004 draft.
Ideally, the Celtics would like a top five draft pick, where the likelihood of finding a franchise player seems relatively high in this stacked draft class. Yes, history has shown that you don't need to win the lottery to find elite talent. Paul Pierce (10th overall), Dirk Nowitzki (9th) and Paul George (10th) are examples, but even though those All-Stars weren't selected with one of the top picks in their respective drafts, they were still lottery picks. Players picked outside the lottery rarely come with more upside than a serviceable role player. Winning the Atlantic Division prevents Boston from getting a lottery pick.
The wild card scenario is that Boston owns Brooklyn's first-round pick this year, thanks to the Pierce/Garnett trade that already has backfired on the Nets. Their aging veterans appear to have little left in the tank, the team has been dealing with various injuries and Jason Kidd hasn't learned how to coach yet. Brook Lopez, who arguably is the team's best player, will miss the rest of the season with a broken foot, dimming their chances even further. Perhaps in an ideal world, the Celtics would win the Atlantic, giving their fans something to root for this year and giving their young players valuable playoff experience, yet still end up with a high draft pick from the Nets. I'm not counting on it though. Not yet anyway. Despite all their issues, Brooklyn still has too much talent to be this bad all season, so it's too early to count them out of making a run at the division title, or at least one of the bottom playoff spots in a weak conference. The worst case scenario would seem to be both teams making the playoffs, leaving the Celtics without any lottery picks. If both teams miss the postseason and they end up with two lottery picks, that only increases their odds of landing a top three pick. Maybe even two of the top picks! Hey, dare to dream, right?
It will be tough for Celtics fans to watch their team sit out this postseason, but the Big Three era is over and it's time to move on. The quickest way to move on involves drafting an elite prospect or using that lottery pick as trade bait to acquire a star. With no realistic shot to contend for a title with this current core, winning the Atlantic Division could be the worst thing that could happen to this team.
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