It's tough to repeat in baseball. In fact, no team has won the World Series in consecutive years since the New York Yankees capped a three-peat in 2000. Prior to that, the Toronto Blue Jays won a pair of titles in 1992-93. Other than that - well you have to go back to before my lifetime to find when it has happened. The grind of a deep postseason run takes a toll on players that can carry over to the following season. You may have heard it mentioned as the Hangover Effect - and no, it has nothing to do with whatever certain Red Sox pitchers were doing in the clubhouse in 2011. Free agency has led to rising salaries that also makes it harder for most teams to keep their core group together.
With that in mind, you could start building a case why the defending champion Boston Red Sox may not enter the season as the favorites to win this season. Also factor in that they are part the brutal AL East that prevents them from even being a lock to win the division. The Rays are well stocked and the Yankees have re-stocked. Baltimore has the talent to hang around and the Blue Jays can't possibly be as disappointing as last season.
Yet that doesn't mean the Sox are in bad shape. Not by any means. They start the season in the mix of contenders by bringing back the majority of last year's core. So how does this team compare with the team that won the title last season?
Who's in center?
Well, it won't be Jacoby Ellsbury. The Sox former center fielder and lead-off hitter fled to the rival Yankees for a 7-year, $153 million deal that was far to rich for the Sox to match. Part of why they were willing to let their star outfielder go is because they were confident that they already had his replacement in Jackie Bradley, Jr.
However, an interesting story line has developed this spring. Boston took a low risk chance on a lottery ticket by signing Grady Sizemore to compete for a roster spot and so far it seems to be paying off. The former All-Star hasn't played since 2011 due to injuries and has managed to stay on the field for only a total of 210 games since 2009. So why bother with a player who appeared to be done years ago? Well, for one thing, in his last healthy season he mashed 33 home runs and swiped 38 bases. That capped a run of four straight seasons where he proved himself to be at least a solid 20/20 guy. Oh, and he's only 31 years old, which is only a year older than Ellsbury. Sizemore has impressed so far, hitting .303 and recently smashing his first home run in years. Most importantly, he's still healthy. Expect the Sox to stick him in center to open the season and ride that horse until it gives out. Which given recent history, may not be too long.
The good news is that Bradley, Jr. should be ready to step in if Sizemore falters or succumbs once again to the injury bug. After lighting the world on fire last spring, Bradley, Jr. flopped out of the gate once the games began to matter. After hitting a miserable .097 in 14 games, he was demoted back to Pawtucket. This spring, Bradley, Jr.'s struggles have continued, as he's batting only .173 so far. He does have four doubles, but also 16 strikeouts in only 52 at-bats. So perhaps he could use a bit more seasoning down on the farm anyway, but he's still the center fielder of the future for this team and profiles as an elite defensive player that gets on base and has a little pop. He won't replace Ellsbury's speed, but his other tools should add up to providing a similar level of value in the long run. Maybe not the same value as Ellsbury had at his peak - we can't ever expect JBJ to have a year like the MVP-caliber season Ellsbury had in 2011. Then again, we can't reasonably expect Ellsbury himself to have another season like that either.
The rest of the offense
Yeah, they are still pretty good. After all, they did lead the majors in runs scored last year and should be expected to be near the top of that list again. The loss of Ellsbury could hurt, but the offense could improve in other areas too.
Dustin Pedroia didn't have a bad season by any means (.301/.372/.415), but he was also playing through a painful thumb injury that sapped some of his power. Expect a return to double digit home runs with another 40+ doubles. David Ortiz still anchors the middle of the lineup and now that he's been rewarded with an extension that should keep him in Boston for the rest of his career, he's free of distractions about his contract and can instead focus on doing what he does best.
Jarod Saltalamacchia is gone, but A.J. Pierzynski should be a sufficient short term fill in until one of the franchises young prospects is ready to take over behind the plate. Pierzynski is the type of guy people hate when he's not on your team, but as long as he's on your side, he's known to be a good teammate.
Shane Victorino had a nice bounce back season at the plate last year. Even with some regression, he adds plenty of value with his speed on the base paths and his defensive ability. He plays right field better than anyone this team has seen in a while. The left field tandem of Daniel Nava and Johnny Gomes worked well last season and manager John Farrell will continue to switch between them as a platoon in order to put each of them in the best position to succeed.
What about the kids?
A full season of Xander Bogaerts at shortstop will help. The rookie wasn't at all phased by the big stage during Boston's World Series run last year, hitting .296/.412/.481 in 12 postseason games. Stephen Drew was solid in his time manning the position last year, but he doesn't have nearly the upside that Bogaerts has. This kid is going to be a stud.
Will Middelbrooks is poised for a breakout season. The young third baseman was demoted last June after struggling to a .192 start at the plate. Once he was called up again though he was a different player. Middlebrooks hit .276/.329/.476 with 8 home runs after the All-Star break last year. Those numbers won't blow you away, but they are light years ahead of where he was at early in the season. If he can build on that this season, it could give the bottom of the order a big lift.
Starting rotation
The rotation remains mostly the same, with Jon Lester set to lead the staff. He showed last October that he is still capable of being one of the game's most dominant lefty pitchers. He just needs to find a bit more consistency in order to put himself in the conversation with the AL's best pitchers. Clay Buchholz had the number last year to be in that conversation as well, when he posted a league best 1.74 ERA. Unfortunately, he did so in only about half a season, falling short of the innings total required to qualify for the ERA title. He probably won't double the 16 starts he made last year, but he has to at least come close.
Ryan Dempster may have done the team a favor by opting to sit out the season. Not only does it save the team from paying him the $13.25 million he was owed in the final year of his contract, but it also avoids putting the team in the uncomfortable position of paying that much to a pitcher on the decline that no longer appears to be one of the team's top five options for the rotation. That allows the Sox to fit in Felix Doubront to help fill out a rotation that also includes solid veterans John Lackey and Jake Peavy.
Boston also has impressive depth thanks to their minor league system. Allen Webster, Anthony Ranaudo and Ruby De La Rosa could all step in for spot starts when needed. Henry Owens, the team's top pitching prospect, will start the season in Double-A Portland, but don't rule out him making an impact late in the season.
Call to the bullpen
The Sox bullpen looked to be in trouble once closers Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey were both lost to season ending injuries. Yet they managed to strike gold once they inserted Koji Uehara at the back of the bullpen. Uehara got on a roll that was nothing short of spectacular, posting a 1.09 ERA and 0.57 WHIP, while holding opposing hitters to a .130 average. It's unreasonable to expect the 38 year old to repeat that kind of performance and injuries could be a concern coming off a career high 74.1 innings, but Uehara should still be considered one of the game's top closers.
Even with some decline from their closer, the bullpen should be stronger overall. During their postseason run, Farrell found it hard to trust anyone outside of Uehara, Craig Breslow, Junichi Tazawa and Brandon Workman. In addition to those options, Farrell should now have a healthy Andrew Miller back in the pen to give them a hard throwing lefty. The team also added Edward Mujica, who saved 37 games last year for the St. Louis Cardinals. Former journeyman starter Chris Capuano makes for an intriguing addition and has looked strong this spring.
Any of the young prospects in Boston's system that are ready to break through could make an impact in the bullpen if a rotation spot doesn't open up.
2014 outlook
While many fans in Red Sox Nation may have been disappointed to lose an All-Star caliber player like Ellsbury without making any splashy moves to counter his defection, the Red Sox may actually have a better team on paper than the title winning team last year. Improved health from their pitching staff and an infusion of young talent should help offset any off-season losses.
Winning back-to-back championships is tough to pull off. We don't know yet if this team will be able to buck the trend, but what we do know is that this team is set up to be one of the top contenders this season. History may be against them, but it shouldn't surprise anyone if the Sox make another run at a title. Put the duck boats on standby.
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