Who's the AL MVP?

This year's AL MVP award has essentially come down to a two man race.  On one side you have the first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967.  On the other you have a rookie phenom that has electrified the league and established himself as the best all around player in the game at only 21 years young.

Compare the stat lines for Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout and you'll find they match up pretty evenly in a lot of categories.

Cabrera: .331 AVG/.394 OBP/.608 SLG, 109 Runs, 44 HR, 139 RBI, 4 SB, WAR 10.3
Trout:    .324 AVG/.397 OBP/.561 SLG, 129 Runs, 30 HR, 83 RBI, 49 SB, WAR 7.3

Their slash lines are very similar, with a slight edge to Cabrera.  Their spot in the lineup, with Trout being a lead off hitter and Cabrera typically in the three hole, factors in their differences in the runs scored and RBI categories.  Each leads the lead in their respective categories.  Cabrera has the edge in power while Trout has a dominant advantage on the base paths.

So who is our MVP?  They are both fantastic hitters, but also very different types of hitters.  Given their individual strengths, you could make a case for either one of them.

The case for Cabrera:

Miggy will get a big push from the voters for being the first Triple Crown winner in over 40 years.  The Triple Crown probably meant a lot more back in those days then it does now, when advancements in statistics have taught us that there are much better ways to establish a player's value than the old fashioned Avg/HR/RBI categories.  On base percentage has surpassed batting average, slugging percentage is a much better indication of power than home run totals and RBI is one of the game's more overrated stats due to it's high reliance on teammates hitting in front of them.  Still, these numbers still count and the Triple Crown is still a great honor.

They say chicks dig the long ball.  Well, so do the voters.  Cabrera has a distinct advantage, both in HRs and SLG.  Even if you're skeptical on the value of RBIs, it's clear that Cabrera is a huge power threat and run producer.  His wRC+ of 167 indicates that he created 67% more runs than league average.

Also helping Cabrera's case is that his BABIP is nearly identical to his batting average, which should eliminate speculation that his league leading average was due mostly to luck.  While Trout's ability to beat out infield hits with his speed partially explains his high BABIP (.381), it doesn't account for all of it, which could be a sign of future regression for his batting average.

A strong finish is important when it comes to winning this award.  While games in September count just as much in the standings as those in April, the games during that final playoff push down the stretch seem to catch voters attention more.  Cabrera hit .308/.378/.654 with 10 HRs in the month of September, following a scorching month of August.  As good as Trout was this season, September was his worst month (.257/.380/.455), as the long grueling season finally started to take it's toll on the rookie.  That allowed Cabrera to make a late comeback to surpass him in those slash categories, which Trout had led in for much of the season.

While it's mostly a team accomplishment overall, voters due tend to push for MVPs to come from winning teams.  Trout's Angels actually finished with more wins than Cabrera's Tigers, but the Tigers won the AL Central division and will be headed to the postseason, while Trout will be sitting at home this October.

The case for Trout:

Trout had the Rookie of the Year race locked up by June, but he's looking to become the first Rookie to win the MVP since Ichiro in 2001.  Except when Ichiro did it, he didn't come into the league as a 20 year old lacking professional experience, since he had played for several years at the pro level in Japan. So for a true comparison of what Trout is looking to accomplish, you'd have to go all the way back to 1975 when Jim Rice won both the ROY and MVP awards at age 22.

Trout can't compete with the raw power of Cabrera, as shown by the gap between them in home runs.  The difference in their slugging percentage though may not be as steep as it seems.  Cabrera has a significant advantage in SLG, but Trout's base running closes that gap.  Trout led the league in steals, so when Trout got a base hit and then stole a base to turn that single into a double or triple, if that were factored into his slugging percentage then he'd have Cabrera beat by a mile.  With his speed, he's capable of turning a single into the equivalent of an extra base hit.  Not to mention the advantage that it gives him of being able to race from first to third or from second to home on a base hit, while a slower runner like Cabrera wouldn't have been able to go for that extra base.  This all factors in to why Trout not only led the league in runs scored, but also edged out Cabrera in wRC+ with 174 weighted runs created.

We sometimes forget to consider this when picking an MVP, but offense isn't everything.  There's another side of the game, one that requires a glove.  From a defensive standpoint, Trout is miles ahead of Cabrera.  His Ultimate Zone Rating (13.3) ranks him as one of the league's best defensive outfielders.  He's piled up a boat load of web gem highlights and leads the league in robbing home runs with his glove.  Trout not only produces runs at the plate, he saves runs in the field.

Meanwhile, Cabrera was one of the worst defensive players in the league, with a UZR of -9.2.  Granted  that can partly be blamed on the fact that he was forced to move back to third base this year after the arrival of Prince Fielder in Detroit.  Cabrera was a below average defender at the position in his days with the Marlins and that was 5 years and 30 pounds ago.  Detroit knew that making Cabrera switch positions would be a defensive disaster, so it's hard to put too much blame on him given his team put him in a bit of an unfair situation.  Still, it's not like he would have been useful defensively had he stayed at first base, but for his career he was merely below average at that position instead of plain awful at the hot corner.

And the winner is....

Mike Trout!  If this award was only for hitting then Cabrera would be our winner, but the MVP is a measure of how valuable the player is to their team, which needs to factor in all aspects of the game.  Trout is a five tool player and the most completed player in the game.  His 10.3 WAR (per FanGraphs) easily led the league and puts him ahead of Cabrera (7.3) by a wide margin.

Making the postseason is a big accomplishment in Cabrera's favor, but it shouldn't be held against Trout that his team narrowly missed out due to playing in a much more competitive division.  Detroit won less games than LA, while playing inferior competition.  The Angels were still in the race down the stretch, meaning Trout's September games were just as meaningful and pressure packed.

It also has to be said that Trout didn't even make his debut with the Angels until getting called up on April 28th.  He was deprived of over three weeks of playing time because the Angels foolishly thought it was a good idea to give a starting role to Vernon Wells and his massive contract at Trout's expense.  Cabrera finished with nearly 70 more at bats this season due to the fact that Trout wasn't even in the league yet to start the year.  If Trout had started the year in LA, his value may have added an extra couple of wins for the Angels, which may have been enough to get them to the postseason.

The old school voters will look at the power numbers, RBI total and the playoff appearance, which will give Cabrera an excellent chance to actually win the award.  But when you look at the overall picture and break it all down, Mike Trout should be the winner.