Things I Noticed: Week 16

With only one week left in the regular season, the playoff races in each conference are nearly mirror images of each other.  In the AFC, all four divisions have been clinched, while the Chiefs have settled into the 5th seed.  The only drama left is a four team fight for the final spot.  Meanwhile, nobody in the NFC has clinched a division yet and only three teams have clinched a playoff spot.  It's shaping up to be an exciting finish down the stretch where almost every contending team still has something to play for.

Here are some things I noticed this week:

• The Patriots go some revenge for last year's playoff loss by putting a dent into the Ravens playoff hopes this season with a blowout victory in Baltimore.  New England got off to a quick start with two first quarter TDs and built a 20 point lead by the 4th quarter when the Ravens finally got on the scoreboard.  
• After the Patriots went up by three possessions with a LeGarrette Blount TD run just before the two minute warning, Baltimore waived the white flag by sending Joe Flacco to the bench.  With backup Tyrod Taylor under center, the Ravens next two possessions were a botched snap that was recovered by Chandler Jones for a defensive score and a pick six by Tavon Wilson.  A 20 point deficit would take a miracle to overcome in the final two minutes, but with your season on the line, why not at least try?  Flacco played terribly in this game, but he gives you a better shot than Taylor!  Baltimore no longer controls their fate, as it will take a win next week as well as a Miami loss for them to grab the final wild card spot. 
• Bill Belichick took a lot of heat in the off-season for his decision to let Wes Welker walk away in
  
  free agency and replace him with Danny Amendola.  Those frustrations were voiced louder as Welker got off to a hot start in a historic Broncos offense, while Amendola struggled to stay on the field, missing four games.  What Patriots fans failed to realize is that Amendola didn't necessarily need to be the one to step up as the new top receiver.  Welker's departure paved the way for Julian Edelman to flourish in a breakout season.  As much as people want to complain about losing Welker, they should stop to notice that Edelman is having the more productive season.
• Welker: 73 catches, 778 yards, 10.7 yards per catch, 10 TDs.
• Edelman: 96 catches, 991 yards, 10.3 yards per catch, 6 TDs.
• Miami left the door open for Baltimore (or San Diego) to steal that last playoff spot from them by getting shut out in Buffalo.  This sure didn't look like a team on the cusp of playing in the postseason. The Dolphins were limited to 103 total yards, which is the third lowest offensive output in franchise history.  
• Ryan Tannehill, the league's most sacked QB, was harassed by constant blitzing from a hungry Bills defense that managed to take him down 7 times.  Tannehill was sacked or under pressure on 44% of his drop backs and completed only 2 of 8 passes for 15 yards when under duress.  
• Buffalo may be out of the playoff picture, but give them credit for playing the spoiler role against a divisional opponent.  The defense was the primary force behind their victory, but a running game that put up over 200 yards played a big part as well.  Fred Jackson led the way with 111 yards and a score.
• Andy Dalton (366 yards, 4 TDs) had a big game to lock up the AFC North title for the Bengals.  Dalton hasn't had the most consistent season, but his 31 TDs are tied for the third most in the league.
• Cincinnati clinched their first division title since 2009.  The Bengals have now made the playoffs in all three of Dalton's seasons.  It's the first time in franchise history the team has made the postseason for three consecutive seasons.  If they win next week when the Ravens come to visit they will finish undefeated at home for the first time since 1988, when they reached the Super Bowl.
• Adrian Peterson returned after a one game absence, but the lopsided score prevented him from getting involved.  He finished with 54 yards on only 11 carries.  You know, because letting Matt Cassel throw the ball more is clearly a better idea.  Cassel completed less than half his passes (13/27) and turned the ball over four times.
• The Colts built some confidence by going into Kansas City and beating a Chiefs team that will likely be their first round opponent in two weeks when the playoffs begin.  KC is locked into the top wild card spot, while the Colts will likely finish in the 4th seed, unless they win next week and the Bengals lose.
• For reasons that can't possibly go beyond "we gave up a first-round pick for this guy, we can't give up on him yet", Trent Richardson received the bulk of the carries, yet did little with those chances. Meanwhile, Donald Brown ran for a team high 79 yards on only 10 carries and found the end zone twice - once on the ground and another on a reception.
• The loss is a slight setback for the Chiefs, but they have already locked up a playoff spot and the 5th seed.  Losing at home to a team you may need to travel to visit in the postseason could have greater ramifications in the long term, but given that the Chiefs don't have a lot left to play for, it probably doesn't mean as much to them as it does to the Colts.
• Robert Quinn recorded three sacks to help stymie the Bucs, giving him a league leading 18 on the
  
  season.  That also set a new Rams franchise record for sacks in a season.
• Tampa Bay got on the board first with a short plunge by Bobby Rainey for a score, but Rainey (37 yards on 20 carries) and the rest of the Bucs offense did little else the rest of the way.
• Geno Smith had perhaps the best game of his short career in leading the Jets over Cleveland.  He threw two TD passes in a game for the first time since October and ran another in for his 5th rushing score of the season.
• Whispers about the future of Rex Ryan in New York have grown louder all year, but considering this Jets team was picked by most to be one of the worst in the league and was starting a rookie QB, it's fair to say the Jets have exceeded expectations.  If they win next week to finish 8-8, that would be quite an accomplishment and one worthy of keeping Rex around for at least another year.
• Josh Gordon caught only 6 of his 16 targets for 97 yards and was kept out of the end zone for the first time in six weeks.  He was targeted in the end zone, but failed to come down with the catch on a fade route.
• Facing 4th and goal from the 10 yard line with the Cowboys season potentially on the line, Tony Romo dropped back to pass and found DeMarco Murray on a short pass to the right side for a game winning TD with just over a minute left.  It was Romo's 23rd career comeback in the 4th quarter or OT.  Since Romo became the starter in Dallas back in 2006, only Peyton Manning (25) has more late comebacks.  So this is nothing new for Romo.  We just aren't used to seeing it from him once the calendar flips to December and the pressure begins to build.  
• Just his luck - Romo finally has a clutch December win, but suffers a season ending injury in the process.  On Monday a Cowboys source revealed that Romo has a herniated disk that will require surgery.  Dallas will face the Eagles next week in a game that will decide the division and grant the winner a spot in the postseason.  Coach Jason Garrett has refused to rule Romo out yet, but that seems like posturing to force the Eagles to prepare for him.  Despite getting an epidural shot to treat the pain, Romo looks like a long shot to play next week.
• After the Cowboys coaching staff was criticized last week for running the ball only 23% of the time in the second half of last week's loss (despite leading most of the game), Dallas ran the ball 42% of the time in the second half this week (despite trailing).  Murray finished with 96 yards and a rushing score.
• Washington managed only 297 yards against a Dallas defense that allows a league worst 418.6 yards per game.  So maybe Kirk Cousins isn't the answer after all.  After falling to 3-12, Washington has already clinched the worst record of Mike Shanahan's coaching career, so he no longer appears to be part of the answer either.
• Pierre Garcon (11 catches, 144 yards, 1 TD) broke Art Monk's franchise record for receptions in a season.  He's now up to 107, with one game left to play.
• The Panthers became the NFC's 2nd team to clinch a playoff spot and jumped ahead of New Orleans in the division with their win over the Saints.  Both offenses struggled in a game drenched in torrential downpour, but after the skies began to clear up, Cam Newton was able to find Domenik Hixon for the game winning score with 23 seconds left.  After the defense forced the Saints into a three-and-out, Carolina was given one last chance with under a minute left.  Newton hit Ted Ginn, Jr. with a deep pass for 37 yards and Greg Olson's catch got them to the Saints 14-yard line, where the Panthers spiked the ball to stop the clock.  That left them just enough time to set up the TD pass to Hixon for the win.
• The Saints once looked like one of the league's most dominant teams, but have now lost two straight and need to win next week to ensure they even make the playoffs.  The Saints have a powerful offense, but despite still being top 5 in yards per game, they have sunk to a mediocre 13th in points per game (24.8).  Drew Brees is second in the league in passing yards and passing TDs, but the Saints are 25th in the league in rushing yards and rushing TDs.  
• Nate Washington slipped behind the defense to grab a 30-yard reception for the go-ahead score to help the Titans snap a three game losing streak.  
• Jaguars center Brad Meester was playing in the last home game of his career.  He is retiring after this season after 14 years in Jacksonville.  The Jaguars honored him by setting him up for his first career reception.  After reporting as an eligible receiver, Meester moved from center to tight end, where they ran a screen pass for him.  The play gained only 9 yards, but Meester couldn't have been more thrilled.  Sure, he would have liked to have scored, but as he said after the game, he was just glad he didn't drop the ball.
• Peyton Manning broke Tom Brady's record with his 51st TD pass of the season.  Manning
  
  previously held the record at 49, until Brady broke it in 2007.  Manning reclaimed the title with one game remaining.  Manning (400 yards, 4 TDs) had three of those TDs in the fourth quarter, with the final one coming with under five minutes left.  Despite a comfortable lead at the time, you could tell Manning was gunning for the record in that fourth quarter, knowing that pending the outcome of New England's game later that afternoon, he may not have had the chance to play in Week 17.  
• Brady was predictably humble in praising Manning for his accomplishment, but don't think that he's not already thirsting for a shot to break the record again next year.  Give him a healthy Gronkowski and anything resembling an elite WR and he'll make a run at it.
• As it turns out, the Patriots did win, preventing Denver from locking up the top seed this week. Which means Manning will have a shot at breaking Drew Brees' passing record next week.  He needs only 265 yards to surpass the 5,476 Brees threw for in 2011.  
• Brees seems to pass for 5K yards every year, so expect him to come after Manning as well if his record falls this year.  With the way passing numbers are escalating in recent years due to rule changes favoring offense, expect a lot of these types of records to fall.
• The win clinched the division for Denver, but it wasn't all good news.  Stud linebacker Von Miller tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the season.  Unless he has the same kind of super healing powers that Adrian Peterson has, we have to expect he may miss some time next season as well.  Peterson injured himself around the same time in 2011 and barely made it back in time for Week 1, which at the time seemed like a miracle.  
• Andre Johnson may have been overshadowed by Manning's historic achievement, but his four catches this week gives him his 5th season with 100+ catches, tied with Wes Welker for most all-time.
• The Giants upset the Lions in overtime, ending Detroit's playoff hopes.  The Lions have dropped five of their last six games and blew fourth quarter leads in all of them.  Dating back to last season, the Lions have lost 9 straight games in December and January (yet Tony Romo gets dragged through the mud, while far fewer mention Matthew Stafford's late season struggles).
• Detroit had a fourth quarter lead, until Stafford threw a pick-six that tied the game.  After the Giants took the opening drive of overtime to the brink of field goal range, the Lions defense saved them by recovering a fumble, but Stafford and the offense gave it right back after a three-and-out on their only OT possession.  
• Eddie Lacy set a Packers franchise rookie rushing record.  He is the first Packers RB in franchise history with 1,000+ yards and 8+ TDs.
• After a goal line stand, the Steelers block a field goal.  While the ball was loose, a Pittsburgh player illegally batted the ball out of bounds.  Since officials determined that the Steelers didn't have possession prior to the penalty, it gave Green Bay the ball back after a half the distance to the goal penalty.  The Packers score on a Lacy TD on the next play.
• Pittsburgh appeared to have possession after the blocked field goal, with the recovering player attempting to lateral the ball back to a teammate, which resulted in the ball illegally being batted out of bounds.  The penalty was legit, but it should still have been Steelers ball.
• Troy Polamalu sacked Matt Flyn, forcing a fumble that the Steelers recovered at the Packers 17-yard line.  Five plays later, Le'Veon Bell plowed into the end zone for the game winning score.  Despite an 0-4 start to the season, Pittsburgh remains mathematically alive for the postseason.  It would take a win next week and a loss by Miami, Baltimore and San Diego to do it, but their season isn't over yet!
• Aided by a 70-yard kick-off return, Green Bay managed to get all the way to the Steelers 1-yard line with a chance to tie the game, but a false start penalty backed them up five yards.  Not only that, but it also resulted in a 10 second run off on the clock, which left time for only one last play, which was an incomplete pass off the fingertips of Josh Boykin.
• Carson Palmer connected with Michael Floyd for a game winning TD near the end of the fourth quarter to keep the Cardinals playoff hopes alive.  Rarely can a team overcome a four INT game from their QB and still win, especially in a hostile environment like the one in Seattle, yet they somehow managed.  Two of those picks came in the end zone, robbing Arizona of points, but Palmer came through when it mattered most in clutch.
• Russell Wilson lost for the fist time at home in his career as he struggled against Arizona's defense.  He completed only 11 of 27 pass attempts for 108 yards, 1 TD and an INT.  His 11.5 Total QBR was the worst rating of his career.  The poor performance came despite an ideal match up where he should have been able to thrive.  Not only does he typically perform much better at home, but entering this week, Wilson led the league in passing yards and touchdowns when under pressure.  The Cardinals blitzed on 48% of opponent's dropbacks this season, which is the most in the league.
• Marshawn Lynch struggled against the league's top run defense, but that's not a huge surprise considering his recent decline.  Through the first 10 weeks of the season, Lynch averaged 87.1 yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry.  Since then, those numbers have dropped to 57.8 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry.
• The Chargers needed a lot to go right for them to remain in the playoff mix.  Losses by Miami and Baltimore helped them out, but they still needed to take care of business themselves.  This week against Oakland, they did just that.  Ryan Mathews ran for 99 yards and a score and has now set a new career high for rushing yards.  
• Oakland hurt themselves with a long list of mistakes.  They committed 12 penalties in the game, including a bonehead taunting penalty that aided the game winning TD drive.  When they had the chance to later pull within one score, Rod Streater dropped a pass in the end zone.
• The 49ers won the last regular season game ever to be played at Candlestick Park to punch their
  
  ticket to the postseason on Monday night.  The Niners waved farewell to their home stadium by inviting several former players, including Steve Young and Jerry Rice, to share in the celebration.
• On a night that the 49ers celebrated one of the most infamous plays in team history, "The Catch" was made by a defensive player this time.  Trailing by three with just over a minute remaining, Atlanta was in the red zone looking for a game winning score.  Matt Ryan threw over the middle to Harry Douglas, who bobbled the the catch enough for a defender to tip it.  Navarro Bowman snatched the ball out of the air and took it all the way for a score the other way to clinch the victory for San Francisco.  
• As for the Falcons, the last time they faced this Niners team it was in the NFC Championship game and they were a favored 13 win team playing at home.  A lot has changed since then, as the Falcons have now become one of the league's worst teams.  This will be Matt Ryan's first losing season and the worst season the franchise has suffered since 2007, the year before Ryan arrived.  I would expect them to bounce back next year, health permitting, but not to the level of being a contender.  They overachieved last season, considering nobody had a better record than them despite only finishing 5th in point differential (+120), which would suggest they played more like an 11 win team.  As great as Julio Jones was before this lost season, trading up for him deprived the team of several draft picks the past couple seasons that has depleted the team's depth.  Regression was to be expected and a few key injuries were responsible for the team dropping even further than expected.  That's life in the NFL, where the margin for error can be razor thin. 
• With one game left, Denver seems to be a good bet to set a record for points scored in a season.  New England holds the current record with 589 (from the 2007 season) and Denver already has 572.  Yet even if they get the record, their point differential (currently +187) won't come anywhere near the +315 that Patriots team put up in their undefeated regular season.  It's unlikely to even approach New England's point differential last season (+226)!