In Bill We Trust.
That's the slogan Patriots fans have stood by for over a decade in support of a coach that has delivered 3 Super Bowls and a long list of division titles. He is widely considered to be the best coach in the league, and rightly so. Yet even the best coaches can have bad days.
The NFL draft is dissected, analyzed and scrutinized from all angles. In some cases teams can make brilliant picks, while in others they can make mistakes that set the team back. Bill Belichick and the Patriots organization have a successful track record in the draft, strong enough to earn them the benefit of the doubt. Yet after this year's draft it's hard to see how they can consider it a success.
To be clear, no NFL coach nails the draft all the time, and there are certainly teams that did far worse than the Patriots in this draft. We should also note that there have been times in the past where Belichick's choices have been questioned but worked out far better than most anticipated (Devon McCourty last year), as well as choices that were widely praised that later proved to be a bust (Laurence Maroney in 2006). So it's still too early to truly judge this draft based on the players that were taken. On the other hand, it's not too early to question the strategy of targeting certain needs.
The Patriots entered this draft with multiple picks in the first three rounds. Their top needs included adding depth at the offensive line, running back, defensive end and outside linebacker. Those two defensive positions in particular stand out as obvious holes in desperate need of an infusion of early round talent. Last year the Patriots were the worst team in the league on 3rd down due to having virtually no pass rush. Luckily, this draft was deep with numerous quality pass rushers at the DE and OLB positions. With plenty of early round picks at their disposal it seemed like a no-brainer that the Patriots would be able to fill those holes with difference makers that could pay immediate dividends. Or so we thought.
The Patriots surprised a lot of people with their first pick, which was the 17th overall pick, acquired from Oakland in the Richard Seymour trade two years ago. They took offensive tackle Nate Solder. A solid pick, considering there are holes to fill on the offensive line with the uncertainty of Logan Mankins future with the team and Matt Light possibly departing as a free agent. Help on the offensive line was one of the team's top priorities, and the position didn't have quite as much depth as DE did. While many would have preferred the team to take an elite pass rusher like Cameron Jordon in this spot, you can't argue with the logic of securing an OT instead knowing that other quality DEs would be available for their next pick. The only concern with this pick is that you can argue that Solder wasn't the highest rated player available at his position. Other tackles, such as Anthony Costonzo, were rated higher by most scouts, but perhaps Belichick felt Solder was a better fit for this team. Fair enough.
But there was still the pass rush to worry about. With the 28th and 33rd overall picks coming up, there were still chances to fill that hole, but when the time came to pull the trigger, the Patriots once again passed. The 28th pick was traded to the Saints (who moved up to take RB Mark Ingram, another potential Pats target) in exchange for a late 2nd rounder (56th overall) and a 2012 1st round pick (which likely will be near the end of the round). On a value scale it appears the Patriots got good value with the trade, but when DEs like Mo Wilkerson and Cameron Hayward came off the board soon after, it was a big let down.
The end of the first day of the draft was a little disappointing, but with plenty of ammo left they were sure to make up for it on day 2. After all, they had the first pick in the 2nd round (obtained from Carolina). The hope for most Pats fans was that they would use this pick on the best remaining pass rushers - Jabaal Sheard or Brooks Reed. Instead, the Patriots shocked us again by taking corner back Ras-I Dowling. Nothing against Dowling, who is a tall, physical corner that projects to be very good, but after using a first round pick on McCourty last year it didn't seem like this was a position we needed to use an early round pick on. Having two CBs of their caliber teaming in the secondary is great, but it doesn't matter how good your secondary is if you can't put pressure on the QB. Receivers will get open eventually if the QB has enough time to throw. Before the Patriots would have a chance to pick again, all the top pass rushers had already been taken. The team missed out on a golden opportunity to fix their biggest issue and now would have to hope that they can strike gold with a sleeper prospect later in the draft. Certainly not impossible, but the odds are much worse than they would be if we used an earlier pick on the position.
The rest of the draft had a few picks that were great values, but overall it remained a let down. RB Shane Vereen (56th overall pick) is considered by some to be the best RB in the draft. He's a strong runner, good in pass protection and also a capable receiver out of the backfield. Last year teams learned to key in on if the Pats would run or pass based on which RB lined up in the backfield, but Vereen is a solid option for run or pass plays, which will help keep defenses guessing. We did need more depth at the position, so that's a solid pick considering we might as well have given up on finding a pass rusher at this point. However, the decision to take another RB with the 73rd pick was puzzling. Stevan Ridley is a powerful runner that is much different from what Vereen gives them, so they compliment each other well. The 3rd round seemed a little too high for him though, so they must really have wanted him given they did not end up with a 4th round pick. With Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead locks to retain their featured roles, the addition of two rookie RBs likely means Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk will be gone.
In between those two picks the Patriots traded away the 60th overall pick for the 73rd and 138th overall picks. Belichick likes to trade picks around, but this was not good value. Given that we had plenty of picks already it would have made more sense to draft quality over quantity, but apparently there was nobody on the board in that spot they really wanted.
Perhaps the most interesting pick of the draft was their 3rd round selection of QB Ryan Mallett. Many consider him to be one of the best QB's in this draft class, so it was a surprise that he fell this far. Several teams passed on him due to some questionable off-field issues as well as attitude issues, which would make him a poor fit on many teams, but not New England. With a no nonsense coach and several quality veteran players that provide a positive locker room influence, the Patriots felt they could trust Mallett to be on his best behavior (he really has no choice on this team) and the value he provides was just too good to pass up, despite that it's not a position of need. Brady is 34 years old and won't be around forever. Having a kid with Mallet's talents sit around and learn from him for a few years isn't the worst idea in the world. The plan worked wonders for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, and he's now an All-Pro Super Bowl winning star. The team thinks letting Mallet study Brady up close could have similar results. If nothing else, if he develops into a quality player then either Mallet or current backup Brian Hoyer become valuable trade assets that could net them much more than a late 3rd round pick.
Never shy about making trades, Belichick also sent the 92nd and 125th overall picks to Oakland for a 2012 2nd round pick. Great value with that trade. The Pats will once again have multiple picks in the first two rounds next year.
Without a 4th round pick, the Pats had to wait all the way until pick 138 to select again, beefing up their OL again by taking Marcus Cannon. This could end up being a great pick, as Cannon rates pretty high based on talent, but he slipped in the draft after being diagnosed with non-Hodgkins lymphoma, making him a risk. He's expected to recover, but it's still a high risk/high reward pick. I say it's worth it this late in the draft. It sure worked for the Red Sox with Jon Lester, who has recovered successfully from the same disease.
Also in the 5th round, the Pats selected TE Lee Smith. Odd to see them take another TE after using early round picks to take two of them last year, but with Alge Crumpler getting older and in the last year of his contract it doesn't hurt to add some more depth to the position. Smith is more of a blocking TE, as opposed to the receiving threats they drafted last year.
In round 6 the Patriots finally address the DE position by taking Markell Carter. I'm not sure what they see in him, but he doesn't rate very high according to anything I've read about him. Maybe he will be the diamond in the rough the team needs, but most likely he won't even make the active roster. He's a developmental prospect that projects as more of an OLB in a 3-4 system. He could perhaps pay off sometime down the line, but it's unlikely he contributes right away.
They finish up in the 7th round taking defensive back Malcolm Williams, who is also a long shot to make the team.
While the Patriots did manage to fill several holes and got good value in some other areas, they failed miserably at filling their biggest need of a pass rusher, despite that they had several chances to use a pick to take a quality DE that fit their needs. Granted Belichick knows what he's doing far better than any of the experts that analyze the draft (yes, he even knows more than me, can you believe it?). So we have to trust that he made the right moves and took the players that really are the best fit for the team. He's earned that trust. Yet I still feel uneasy about the success of this draft and can't help but feel that even with progress of players already on the roster, the pass rush will once again be the Achilles Heel of this team. If so, then you might as well sign us up for another early playoff exit this year. As Charles Barkley would say, I may be wrong, but I doubt it. I hope I'm wrong though.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
NBA Playoffs: Round 1 Recap
The NBA playoffs can sometimes seem like it takes forever. With a total of 16 teams able to advance to the postseason and each round being a best of 7 battle, the NBA postseason lasts much longer than the playoffs in other sports, such as in the NFL and MLB. One of the most exciting seasons in recent history has provided us with some of the most entertaining first round match-ups we've seen in a long time, so regardless of how long it takes, fans won't get tired of it.
Let's recap the first round to see which teams surprised us and which teams took care of business.
Boston Celtics defeat New York Knicks
The first two games of this series played out much like their regular season match-ups. They were exciting dog fights, each ending as close one possession games. Ray Allen, with ice water flowing through his veins, hit a deciding 3 pointer to put away Game 1. The outlook appeared gloomy for Boston in the final minute until a beautifully scripted inbounds play resulted in Rajon Rondo connecting with KG for an alley oop to pull within 1 point, while hardly taking any time off the clock. On the following possession, Carmelo Anthony turned the ball over on an offensive foul that Knicks fans will forever complain about (it was a foul, therefore the correct call, yet even I was surprised that a star like Melo was called for it at such a critical moment of the game). Moments later Ray hit the dagger to put the game away. It was a tough loss for the Knicks, but it set the stage for what looked like it would be a grueling hard fought series.
Then things fell apart rather quickly for the Knicks. Chauncey Billups exited at the end of Game 1 with a sprained knee and never returned in this series. Without a true point guard to lead them, the Knicks struggled to run their offense, often looking stagnant and relying too heavily on iso plays for Melo. To make matters worse, Amare Stoudemire exited Game 2 early with back spasms that would plague him the rest of the series. He would return for the next game, but never looked right the rest of the way. An amazing performance by Melo (42 points, 17 rebounds) kept them in the game until the end, but even his brilliant performance wasn't enough, as the Knicks fell again in Boston. The Knicks would head back home knowing they should have stolen at least one of the first two games.
Being that it was the first postseason game in Madison Square Garden in 7 years, you would have expected the Knicks to come out with a lot of energy and demand victory. Instead, they came out lifeless and were blown out on their home court in the final two games, concluding the sweep.
The Knicks will use the excuse that injuries derailed their chances in this series. It's probably true that if Billups had played and if Amare was his healthy dominating self then this series likely would have been drawn out a bit longer, but it was clear the Knicks didn't have the depth or defensive ability to beat the Celtics. Plus, it's not as if the Celtics don't know a thing or two about suffering injuries, as they battled them all season and were without one of their starters for this series as well (not that Shaq was really needed against this team).
The Knicks can point fingers and make excuses all they want, but they have only themselves to blame for their disappointing quick exit. They should have won Game 2, but Mike D'Antoni's inexcusable decision to leave Jared Jeffries on the court on the deciding play of the game cost them. They had to know Melo would get double teamed and the Celtics forced him to pass the ball. Unfortunately, the only open option was the offensive liability, Jeffries. He should have taken the shot, but instead he hesitated long enough for Garnett to get to him. Instead of trusting that he had the best shot, he panicked and attempted to pass the ball to Bill Walker (0 for 11 from the field in the game). KG stole the ball, sealing the victory. When the final chance to win is put in the hands of two of your worst offensive players, the coach has to take the blame. Considering they were coming out of a time out, not only should he have drawn up a better play, but neither of those players should even have been on the court. That was their best chance to win in this series, and after they blew that chance and fell into an early hole, it sucked the energy out of the team and it spiraled out of control from there. Injuries or not, the Knicks never stood a chance after that. Not against a championship tested squad like the Celtics, who proved they still have something left in the tank.
The series sweep allows the Celtics to get a much needed break, as they'll have a week off before starting their next series. Nagging injuries will have time to heal, they'll get some much needed practice time and maybe even get a certain future Hall of Fame center back on the court.
Predicted result: Celtics in 6
Actual result: Celtics in 4
Chicago Bulls defeat Indiana Pacers
Nobody expected much out of the Pacers coming into this series, which is understandable considering they were playing the team with the best record in the league, while they snuck into the playoffs despite losing most of their regular season games (37-45). Despite the large gap in their records, the Pacers proved the gap isn't quite as big on the court. They matched up fairly well with the Bulls with their energy and athleticism, which allowed them to give the Bulls a much tougher match-up then they expected. The Pacers actually led the majority of the time in the first 3 games, before MVP front-runner Derek Rose took over down the stretch to close out the game.
The Pacers have a lot of quality young talent and a bright future, but the one thing they are lacking is the experience to know how to close out a game and a super star talent to take over down the stretch. The Bulls have that and the Pacers don't, which proved to be the difference in this series. Danny Granger is a great player, but he's not an elite super star. He'd make a great 2nd or 3rd option on a lot of playoff teams, but he's miscast as being "The Man" in Indiana for lack of a better option.
The Pacers did manage to steal a game at home, although they nearly collapsed in the 4th quarter once again. This time they managed to hang on, but that only delayed the inevitable, as they got blown out in Game 5 when the Bulls closed out the series at home.
The Pacers managed to put a scare into the top seeded team by playing them tough. An ankle injury to Derek Rose terrified them the most, until he put Chicago fan's minds at ease by coming back with a productive series clinching game. Even when healthy, Rose struggled at times in this series. The Pacers game planned to try to take the ball out of his hands and force someone else to beat them, which worked for the majority of the game, but fell apart at the end of games when nobody could contain Rose. The boxscores showed he still scored plenty of points, but didn't do so nearly as efficiently as he did in the regular season. His shooting percentage was down, as he settled for too many long distance shots, and his assist numbers were down while his turnovers went up.
Jeff Foster cast himself as the self proclaimed villain in the series after the Bulls complained about multiple hard fouls. It created some bad blood between the division rivals that could carry over to future seasons as the rivalry between these young teams continues.
Predicted results: Bulls in 5
Actual results: Bulls in 5
Miami Heat defeat Philadelphia 76ers
As expected, the Heat breezed through this series with relative ease. The Sixers were able to get off to some early leads in the series and kept the games close in 4 out of the 5 games, but the disparity in talent proved to be too much in the end. The All-Star trio took turns leading the team in scoring in each of the first three games, with Wade's near triple-double (32 points, 8 rebounds, 10 assists) in Game 3 being the most dominant performance in the series.
Despite winning in only 5 games, the Heat were far from dominant and showed some growing signs of concern that could haunt them as they advance further into the postseason. For starters, given their superior talent, these games should not have been as close as they were. Game 2's blowout victory at home was the only game that didn't come down to the wire, with the Sixers being within reach in the final minute of the game. The Sixers have a lot of young talent, but lack a go to scorer down the stretch. Andre Iguadala is their best player, but that's because he's one of the league's best wing defenders, as well as a playmaker on offense. Yet he's far from the elite scorer that teams need to close out playoff games.
Speaking of trouble closing games, that's an issue that has plagued the Heat all season, despite that they have two of the game's best scorers on the court. Their Game 4 loss came down to the final seconds where LeBron James had a chance to tie the game. He drove to the lane, but instead of going strong and trying to power the ball to the hoop or force the defense to foul him, he threw up a soft floater, which was partially blocked by Elton Brand, and missed badly, sealing their defeat. Miami is now a worrisome 1-19 shooting in the final 10 seconds of a game where they trail by 3 points or less or are tied. Their lack of clutch shooting at the end of games is mind boggling and potentially devastating once they start facing tougher opponents.
Their other big issue is that they continue to start Mike Bibby and Zydrunas Ilgauskas together, despite that their pairing is the worst defensive combination at their positions. The Heat were much better when Bibby played with Joel Anthony or Z played with Chalmers, but when both were on the court the Sixers were able to exploit them with pick and rolls.
The Heat roll into the next round, but this series highlighted some of their weaknesses that could be exploited against superior opponents.
Predicted results: Heat in 5
Actual results: Heat in 5
Atlanta Hawks defeat Orlando Magic
The Hawks figured to have a chance in this series because by inserting Jason Collins into the starting lineup they are one of the few teams in the East that are able to contain Dwight Howard. Well, at least that was the line of thinking heading into the series, but D12 quickly put that idea to rest when he exploded for 46 points and 19 rebounds in Game 1. Problem is, the Magic still lost. How did that happen? As dominant as Howard was, the Hawks stuck with their strategy of using Collins to guard him alone. Howard was able to get his points, but the strategy of not double teaming him meant that the shooters along the perimeter struggled to find open shots. The Magic are at their best when they throw the ball into the paint to Howard and then kick it out to the open man when the defenders double team him. That didn't happen in this series.
The Magic shooters were also uncharacteristically off target when they did get shots. Meanwhile, Jamal Crawford was lighting up the scoreboard off the bench at an unsustainable pace. It seemed only a matter of time before things evened out, but unfortunately for the Magic it was too late. Hedo Turkoglu was awful all series, while Gilbert Arenas was so bad that he was actually benched for one game.
Jason Richardson started off poorly in the series, but to make matters worse he was suspended for Game 4 due to an altercation in the previous game. This was a big blow for the Magic. In a game that ended up being close at the end, having their 2nd best player surely would have made a difference. Zaza Pachulia bated J-Rich into the fight that got them both suspended with an unnecessary headbutt that understandably set Richardson off. I think the Hawks didn't mind missing their back up big man at the expense of one of Orlando's only players capable of getting his own shot. Granted Richardson should have kept his cool given the circumstances, and fighting in games is never acceptable, but it was a cheap shot by Zaza (we've seen plenty of that from him over the years) that resulted in a big advantage for Atlanta, which may have swung the series.
Atlanta will be happy with the series win, especially after being swept by the Magic in last year's playoffs. However, they had some concerns of their own. Joe Johnson was inconsistent all series, which has been the case for most of his playoff career. In their Game 2 loss they inexplicably benched All-Star forward Al Horford for most of the first half after he got into early foul trouble. He finished the game playing only 26 minutes despite only committing 2 fouls all game (they just happened to both be in the first quarter). They also can't expect Crawford to stay as hot as he was in this series, especially when they move on to face a Bulls team with better perimeter defenders. Aside from Howard, the Magic don't have any capable defenders.
Magic fans have to wonder if this early round exit will signal the end of the D12 era in Orlando. He has already been hesitant to sign an extension with the team, and this playoff let down won't encourage him to stay past next season.
Predicted results: Magic in 6
Actual results: Hawks in 6
Oklahoma City Thunder defeat Denver Nuggets
I expected this to be one of the better series of the postseason, given that both teams came in as hot as any team in the league. Denver deserves a ton of credit for the way they played after trading away Carmelo Anthony. They got back a load of talent in the deal, and despite not having a super star player, they were still one of the best teams in the league down the stretch.
Unfortunately for them, they ran into an even hotter Thunder team. Kevin Durant led his team to their first playoff series victory since the team moved to OKC. He put his stamp on this series by scoring a career playoff high 41 points in both their opening game as well as the series clinching Game 5.
Denver did manage to win Game 4 at home, but even that was a close game that came down to the final seconds. Shot selection, particularly by Russell Westbrook, doomed the Thunder in this game. The young All-Star point guard scored 30 points in the game, but took 30 shots to get there. That was easily a game high, and 12 more shots than Durant (who scored 31 points on only 18 shots). It was only fitting that when the Thunder needed a 3 to tie at the end of the game that it was Westbrook missing the shot. Westbrook is a great player who is establishing himself as one of the league's best young PGs, but one of his biggest issues is shot selection. He's a great scorer, but he has to realize that Durant is the league's best scorer. He needs to find ways to get Durant the ball more instead of trying to do too much on his own. Keep in mind that Westbrook is still young and hardly played the PG position before entering the NBA, so he still has plenty of time to improve in this area. As long as the team can avoid an Alpha Dog controversy between their two stars, the Thunder will be a very dangerous team. We've known for a while that their future was bright, but this series victory may be a sign that their future is now.
Predicted results: Thunder in 6
Actual results: Thunder in 5
LA Lakers defeat New Orleans Hornets
Nobody expected much out of the Hornets in this series, considering they were facing the defending champs and had recently lost their 2nd best player - David West. That's why it came as a shock to most people when the Hornets stole Game 1. How did that happen? Turns out Chris Paul can still play, that's how. Recovering from a knee injury, Paul never looked like his old self this season. He appeared to have lost his explosiveness and had to get buy on being crafty instead. Once the postseason started, CP3 showed that he's still capable of kicking it into a higher gear. He may not be able to do it every game, especially during the regular season, but he's still capable of turning it up a notch when he has to. He single handedly won them 2 games in this series, when many wouldn't have been surprised if they didn't win any. His eye popping triple-double (27-15-13) was one of the best playoff performances we've seen this year. In the end, it wasn't enough to get passed a superior Lakers team, but it was good to see CP3 can still take over games like that, proving he's not ready to give up the title of league's #1 PG just yet.
The Lakers advance, but it probably took them a little longer than they would have liked. For a team full of aging veterans, the less playoff games they have to play along the way, the better. It also has to be a concern that Pau Gasol was invisible for most of the series. They will need him to step up and play with fire if they hope to go deep into the postseason. Paul's mastery in the series also pointed out the Lakers glaring weakness of stopping quick guards. Jason Kidd, who they will see in the next series, no longer fits that category, but if they advance to the Western Finals and NBA Finals then they may need to go up against the likes of Russell Westbrook, Derek Rose or Rajon Rondo along the way. Any of those young talented PGs would cause this Lakers defense a lot of headaches.
Perhaps the biggest concern may be around the health of Kobe Bryant, who injured his ankle (or was it his foot? Depends on who you ask) in this series. He did return to play, but it has to be bothering him. The Lakers better hope it heals quickly and that he doesn't re-injure it or else they are in big trouble.
Predicted results: Lakers in 5
Actual results: Lakers in 6
Dallas Mavericks defeat Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers were my pick to be the one team to upset a higher seed this postseason due to the number of defenders they had capable of shutting down Dirk Nowitski. It didn't work out that way, as Dirk averaged a respectable 27.3 points per game in the series while leading Dallas to a series victory. The Blazers, as it turned out, had no answers for Dirk or Jason Terry in this series. Even Jason Kidd looked rejuvenated in this series, despite resembling a decaying corpse by the end of the regular season.
The silver lining for the Blazers in this series was their Game 4 win in which Brandon Roy appeared to have traveled back in time to days when he had healthy knees. He led the team with 24 points - 18 of which came in an outstanding 4th quarter - to help erase a 23 point deficit to stage a record comeback victory. Roy's balky knees cost him a big chunk of the season and limited his minutes when he did return. The former All-Star was unhappy with his decreased role and frustrated that the offense no longer ran through him when he was in the game. Until that magical 4th quarter when it looked like we were seeing the old Roy. Perhaps this can give Blazers fans hope that his career isn't all but over after all.
Meanwhile, Dallas has to have gained some confidence knowing that if it weren't for a miracle comeback by the Blazers in Game 4 they would have coasted to a series victory fairly easily. Portland plays very well at home, so it's no shock that they managed to win at least one game in the Rose Garden, so the Mavs have to feel good about being able to close out the series with a Game 6 victory on the road. With the Lakers showing more signs of struggles against a lesser opponent, perhaps the Mavs have a better chance in the next round than we've been giving them credit for. Well, at least Mark Cuban thinks so.
Predicted results: Blazers in 7
Actual results: Mavs in 6
Memphis Grizzlies defeat San Antonio Spurs
For only the second time in history, a #8 seed beat a #1 seed in a best of 7 series. The Spurs were the best team in the league for most of the season, but struggled down the stretch, entering the playoffs without the momentum they had earlier this year. Meanwhile, Memphis was the opposite, finishing the season strong and playing much better than their record would indicate.
Memphis caught a break in Game 1 with Manu Ginobili sidelined with an elbow injury. Despite being without their star, the Spurs looked like they would hold on at the end until Shane Battier drained a 3 to give the Grizz a lead. The Spurs came back to even the series in Game 2 thanks to Manu's return, but losing home court put them in a hole.
The Spurs had a chance to take back control of the series, but Memphis stole another game with a game winning 3 pointer by Zach Randolph, who hit only eight 3's the entire season at a miserable 18%. The defense gave him plenty of room, as if daring him to shoot (or perhaps thinking there was no chance of him taking the shot). Z-Bo shrugged his shoulders and hoisted up the shot. Had he missed that shot I think his coach would have killed him, but when it works it's always a great idea.
Game 4 was really the only blowout in the series, with Memphis putting on an impressive show in front of their home crowd. The Big Three for the Spurs did their part for most of this series, but the rest of their rotation players were awful overall. Richard Jefferson in particular was invisible. This loss emphasized the struggles of the role players the most.
A wild Game 5 seemed over when Manu Ginobili hit an off balance shot that appeared to tie the game, but was later overruled on reply to be a 2 point shot instead of a 3, leaving the Spurs trailing by 1 with only seconds left. After fouling and allowing Memphis to hit their free throws, Gary Neal hit an improbable buzzer beater from deep to force overtime, where the Spurs went on to win to extend the series.
The exciting ending allowed the Spurs to live to see another day, but they wouldn't last much longer. These aren't the Grizzlies of old. They even have fans that show up to the games now for the first time (ever?), giving them a lot of confidence when they play in front of their home crowd, which helped drive them to close out the series. I think the Spurs win it if they force a Game 7 to go back to San Antonio, but they couldn't get it done on the road.
Predicted results: Spurs in 7
Actual results: Grizzlies in 6
Let's recap the first round to see which teams surprised us and which teams took care of business.
Boston Celtics defeat New York Knicks
The first two games of this series played out much like their regular season match-ups. They were exciting dog fights, each ending as close one possession games. Ray Allen, with ice water flowing through his veins, hit a deciding 3 pointer to put away Game 1. The outlook appeared gloomy for Boston in the final minute until a beautifully scripted inbounds play resulted in Rajon Rondo connecting with KG for an alley oop to pull within 1 point, while hardly taking any time off the clock. On the following possession, Carmelo Anthony turned the ball over on an offensive foul that Knicks fans will forever complain about (it was a foul, therefore the correct call, yet even I was surprised that a star like Melo was called for it at such a critical moment of the game). Moments later Ray hit the dagger to put the game away. It was a tough loss for the Knicks, but it set the stage for what looked like it would be a grueling hard fought series.
Then things fell apart rather quickly for the Knicks. Chauncey Billups exited at the end of Game 1 with a sprained knee and never returned in this series. Without a true point guard to lead them, the Knicks struggled to run their offense, often looking stagnant and relying too heavily on iso plays for Melo. To make matters worse, Amare Stoudemire exited Game 2 early with back spasms that would plague him the rest of the series. He would return for the next game, but never looked right the rest of the way. An amazing performance by Melo (42 points, 17 rebounds) kept them in the game until the end, but even his brilliant performance wasn't enough, as the Knicks fell again in Boston. The Knicks would head back home knowing they should have stolen at least one of the first two games.
Being that it was the first postseason game in Madison Square Garden in 7 years, you would have expected the Knicks to come out with a lot of energy and demand victory. Instead, they came out lifeless and were blown out on their home court in the final two games, concluding the sweep.
The Knicks will use the excuse that injuries derailed their chances in this series. It's probably true that if Billups had played and if Amare was his healthy dominating self then this series likely would have been drawn out a bit longer, but it was clear the Knicks didn't have the depth or defensive ability to beat the Celtics. Plus, it's not as if the Celtics don't know a thing or two about suffering injuries, as they battled them all season and were without one of their starters for this series as well (not that Shaq was really needed against this team).
The Knicks can point fingers and make excuses all they want, but they have only themselves to blame for their disappointing quick exit. They should have won Game 2, but Mike D'Antoni's inexcusable decision to leave Jared Jeffries on the court on the deciding play of the game cost them. They had to know Melo would get double teamed and the Celtics forced him to pass the ball. Unfortunately, the only open option was the offensive liability, Jeffries. He should have taken the shot, but instead he hesitated long enough for Garnett to get to him. Instead of trusting that he had the best shot, he panicked and attempted to pass the ball to Bill Walker (0 for 11 from the field in the game). KG stole the ball, sealing the victory. When the final chance to win is put in the hands of two of your worst offensive players, the coach has to take the blame. Considering they were coming out of a time out, not only should he have drawn up a better play, but neither of those players should even have been on the court. That was their best chance to win in this series, and after they blew that chance and fell into an early hole, it sucked the energy out of the team and it spiraled out of control from there. Injuries or not, the Knicks never stood a chance after that. Not against a championship tested squad like the Celtics, who proved they still have something left in the tank.
The series sweep allows the Celtics to get a much needed break, as they'll have a week off before starting their next series. Nagging injuries will have time to heal, they'll get some much needed practice time and maybe even get a certain future Hall of Fame center back on the court.
Predicted result: Celtics in 6
Actual result: Celtics in 4
Chicago Bulls defeat Indiana Pacers
Nobody expected much out of the Pacers coming into this series, which is understandable considering they were playing the team with the best record in the league, while they snuck into the playoffs despite losing most of their regular season games (37-45). Despite the large gap in their records, the Pacers proved the gap isn't quite as big on the court. They matched up fairly well with the Bulls with their energy and athleticism, which allowed them to give the Bulls a much tougher match-up then they expected. The Pacers actually led the majority of the time in the first 3 games, before MVP front-runner Derek Rose took over down the stretch to close out the game.
The Pacers have a lot of quality young talent and a bright future, but the one thing they are lacking is the experience to know how to close out a game and a super star talent to take over down the stretch. The Bulls have that and the Pacers don't, which proved to be the difference in this series. Danny Granger is a great player, but he's not an elite super star. He'd make a great 2nd or 3rd option on a lot of playoff teams, but he's miscast as being "The Man" in Indiana for lack of a better option.
The Pacers did manage to steal a game at home, although they nearly collapsed in the 4th quarter once again. This time they managed to hang on, but that only delayed the inevitable, as they got blown out in Game 5 when the Bulls closed out the series at home.
The Pacers managed to put a scare into the top seeded team by playing them tough. An ankle injury to Derek Rose terrified them the most, until he put Chicago fan's minds at ease by coming back with a productive series clinching game. Even when healthy, Rose struggled at times in this series. The Pacers game planned to try to take the ball out of his hands and force someone else to beat them, which worked for the majority of the game, but fell apart at the end of games when nobody could contain Rose. The boxscores showed he still scored plenty of points, but didn't do so nearly as efficiently as he did in the regular season. His shooting percentage was down, as he settled for too many long distance shots, and his assist numbers were down while his turnovers went up.
Jeff Foster cast himself as the self proclaimed villain in the series after the Bulls complained about multiple hard fouls. It created some bad blood between the division rivals that could carry over to future seasons as the rivalry between these young teams continues.
Predicted results: Bulls in 5
Actual results: Bulls in 5
Miami Heat defeat Philadelphia 76ers
As expected, the Heat breezed through this series with relative ease. The Sixers were able to get off to some early leads in the series and kept the games close in 4 out of the 5 games, but the disparity in talent proved to be too much in the end. The All-Star trio took turns leading the team in scoring in each of the first three games, with Wade's near triple-double (32 points, 8 rebounds, 10 assists) in Game 3 being the most dominant performance in the series.
Despite winning in only 5 games, the Heat were far from dominant and showed some growing signs of concern that could haunt them as they advance further into the postseason. For starters, given their superior talent, these games should not have been as close as they were. Game 2's blowout victory at home was the only game that didn't come down to the wire, with the Sixers being within reach in the final minute of the game. The Sixers have a lot of young talent, but lack a go to scorer down the stretch. Andre Iguadala is their best player, but that's because he's one of the league's best wing defenders, as well as a playmaker on offense. Yet he's far from the elite scorer that teams need to close out playoff games.
Speaking of trouble closing games, that's an issue that has plagued the Heat all season, despite that they have two of the game's best scorers on the court. Their Game 4 loss came down to the final seconds where LeBron James had a chance to tie the game. He drove to the lane, but instead of going strong and trying to power the ball to the hoop or force the defense to foul him, he threw up a soft floater, which was partially blocked by Elton Brand, and missed badly, sealing their defeat. Miami is now a worrisome 1-19 shooting in the final 10 seconds of a game where they trail by 3 points or less or are tied. Their lack of clutch shooting at the end of games is mind boggling and potentially devastating once they start facing tougher opponents.
Their other big issue is that they continue to start Mike Bibby and Zydrunas Ilgauskas together, despite that their pairing is the worst defensive combination at their positions. The Heat were much better when Bibby played with Joel Anthony or Z played with Chalmers, but when both were on the court the Sixers were able to exploit them with pick and rolls.
The Heat roll into the next round, but this series highlighted some of their weaknesses that could be exploited against superior opponents.
Predicted results: Heat in 5
Actual results: Heat in 5
Atlanta Hawks defeat Orlando Magic
The Hawks figured to have a chance in this series because by inserting Jason Collins into the starting lineup they are one of the few teams in the East that are able to contain Dwight Howard. Well, at least that was the line of thinking heading into the series, but D12 quickly put that idea to rest when he exploded for 46 points and 19 rebounds in Game 1. Problem is, the Magic still lost. How did that happen? As dominant as Howard was, the Hawks stuck with their strategy of using Collins to guard him alone. Howard was able to get his points, but the strategy of not double teaming him meant that the shooters along the perimeter struggled to find open shots. The Magic are at their best when they throw the ball into the paint to Howard and then kick it out to the open man when the defenders double team him. That didn't happen in this series.
The Magic shooters were also uncharacteristically off target when they did get shots. Meanwhile, Jamal Crawford was lighting up the scoreboard off the bench at an unsustainable pace. It seemed only a matter of time before things evened out, but unfortunately for the Magic it was too late. Hedo Turkoglu was awful all series, while Gilbert Arenas was so bad that he was actually benched for one game.
Jason Richardson started off poorly in the series, but to make matters worse he was suspended for Game 4 due to an altercation in the previous game. This was a big blow for the Magic. In a game that ended up being close at the end, having their 2nd best player surely would have made a difference. Zaza Pachulia bated J-Rich into the fight that got them both suspended with an unnecessary headbutt that understandably set Richardson off. I think the Hawks didn't mind missing their back up big man at the expense of one of Orlando's only players capable of getting his own shot. Granted Richardson should have kept his cool given the circumstances, and fighting in games is never acceptable, but it was a cheap shot by Zaza (we've seen plenty of that from him over the years) that resulted in a big advantage for Atlanta, which may have swung the series.
Atlanta will be happy with the series win, especially after being swept by the Magic in last year's playoffs. However, they had some concerns of their own. Joe Johnson was inconsistent all series, which has been the case for most of his playoff career. In their Game 2 loss they inexplicably benched All-Star forward Al Horford for most of the first half after he got into early foul trouble. He finished the game playing only 26 minutes despite only committing 2 fouls all game (they just happened to both be in the first quarter). They also can't expect Crawford to stay as hot as he was in this series, especially when they move on to face a Bulls team with better perimeter defenders. Aside from Howard, the Magic don't have any capable defenders.
Magic fans have to wonder if this early round exit will signal the end of the D12 era in Orlando. He has already been hesitant to sign an extension with the team, and this playoff let down won't encourage him to stay past next season.
Predicted results: Magic in 6
Actual results: Hawks in 6
Oklahoma City Thunder defeat Denver Nuggets
I expected this to be one of the better series of the postseason, given that both teams came in as hot as any team in the league. Denver deserves a ton of credit for the way they played after trading away Carmelo Anthony. They got back a load of talent in the deal, and despite not having a super star player, they were still one of the best teams in the league down the stretch.
Unfortunately for them, they ran into an even hotter Thunder team. Kevin Durant led his team to their first playoff series victory since the team moved to OKC. He put his stamp on this series by scoring a career playoff high 41 points in both their opening game as well as the series clinching Game 5.
Denver did manage to win Game 4 at home, but even that was a close game that came down to the final seconds. Shot selection, particularly by Russell Westbrook, doomed the Thunder in this game. The young All-Star point guard scored 30 points in the game, but took 30 shots to get there. That was easily a game high, and 12 more shots than Durant (who scored 31 points on only 18 shots). It was only fitting that when the Thunder needed a 3 to tie at the end of the game that it was Westbrook missing the shot. Westbrook is a great player who is establishing himself as one of the league's best young PGs, but one of his biggest issues is shot selection. He's a great scorer, but he has to realize that Durant is the league's best scorer. He needs to find ways to get Durant the ball more instead of trying to do too much on his own. Keep in mind that Westbrook is still young and hardly played the PG position before entering the NBA, so he still has plenty of time to improve in this area. As long as the team can avoid an Alpha Dog controversy between their two stars, the Thunder will be a very dangerous team. We've known for a while that their future was bright, but this series victory may be a sign that their future is now.
Predicted results: Thunder in 6
Actual results: Thunder in 5
LA Lakers defeat New Orleans Hornets
Nobody expected much out of the Hornets in this series, considering they were facing the defending champs and had recently lost their 2nd best player - David West. That's why it came as a shock to most people when the Hornets stole Game 1. How did that happen? Turns out Chris Paul can still play, that's how. Recovering from a knee injury, Paul never looked like his old self this season. He appeared to have lost his explosiveness and had to get buy on being crafty instead. Once the postseason started, CP3 showed that he's still capable of kicking it into a higher gear. He may not be able to do it every game, especially during the regular season, but he's still capable of turning it up a notch when he has to. He single handedly won them 2 games in this series, when many wouldn't have been surprised if they didn't win any. His eye popping triple-double (27-15-13) was one of the best playoff performances we've seen this year. In the end, it wasn't enough to get passed a superior Lakers team, but it was good to see CP3 can still take over games like that, proving he's not ready to give up the title of league's #1 PG just yet.
The Lakers advance, but it probably took them a little longer than they would have liked. For a team full of aging veterans, the less playoff games they have to play along the way, the better. It also has to be a concern that Pau Gasol was invisible for most of the series. They will need him to step up and play with fire if they hope to go deep into the postseason. Paul's mastery in the series also pointed out the Lakers glaring weakness of stopping quick guards. Jason Kidd, who they will see in the next series, no longer fits that category, but if they advance to the Western Finals and NBA Finals then they may need to go up against the likes of Russell Westbrook, Derek Rose or Rajon Rondo along the way. Any of those young talented PGs would cause this Lakers defense a lot of headaches.
Perhaps the biggest concern may be around the health of Kobe Bryant, who injured his ankle (or was it his foot? Depends on who you ask) in this series. He did return to play, but it has to be bothering him. The Lakers better hope it heals quickly and that he doesn't re-injure it or else they are in big trouble.
Predicted results: Lakers in 5
Actual results: Lakers in 6
Dallas Mavericks defeat Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers were my pick to be the one team to upset a higher seed this postseason due to the number of defenders they had capable of shutting down Dirk Nowitski. It didn't work out that way, as Dirk averaged a respectable 27.3 points per game in the series while leading Dallas to a series victory. The Blazers, as it turned out, had no answers for Dirk or Jason Terry in this series. Even Jason Kidd looked rejuvenated in this series, despite resembling a decaying corpse by the end of the regular season.
The silver lining for the Blazers in this series was their Game 4 win in which Brandon Roy appeared to have traveled back in time to days when he had healthy knees. He led the team with 24 points - 18 of which came in an outstanding 4th quarter - to help erase a 23 point deficit to stage a record comeback victory. Roy's balky knees cost him a big chunk of the season and limited his minutes when he did return. The former All-Star was unhappy with his decreased role and frustrated that the offense no longer ran through him when he was in the game. Until that magical 4th quarter when it looked like we were seeing the old Roy. Perhaps this can give Blazers fans hope that his career isn't all but over after all.
Meanwhile, Dallas has to have gained some confidence knowing that if it weren't for a miracle comeback by the Blazers in Game 4 they would have coasted to a series victory fairly easily. Portland plays very well at home, so it's no shock that they managed to win at least one game in the Rose Garden, so the Mavs have to feel good about being able to close out the series with a Game 6 victory on the road. With the Lakers showing more signs of struggles against a lesser opponent, perhaps the Mavs have a better chance in the next round than we've been giving them credit for. Well, at least Mark Cuban thinks so.
Predicted results: Blazers in 7
Actual results: Mavs in 6
Memphis Grizzlies defeat San Antonio Spurs
For only the second time in history, a #8 seed beat a #1 seed in a best of 7 series. The Spurs were the best team in the league for most of the season, but struggled down the stretch, entering the playoffs without the momentum they had earlier this year. Meanwhile, Memphis was the opposite, finishing the season strong and playing much better than their record would indicate.
Memphis caught a break in Game 1 with Manu Ginobili sidelined with an elbow injury. Despite being without their star, the Spurs looked like they would hold on at the end until Shane Battier drained a 3 to give the Grizz a lead. The Spurs came back to even the series in Game 2 thanks to Manu's return, but losing home court put them in a hole.
The Spurs had a chance to take back control of the series, but Memphis stole another game with a game winning 3 pointer by Zach Randolph, who hit only eight 3's the entire season at a miserable 18%. The defense gave him plenty of room, as if daring him to shoot (or perhaps thinking there was no chance of him taking the shot). Z-Bo shrugged his shoulders and hoisted up the shot. Had he missed that shot I think his coach would have killed him, but when it works it's always a great idea.
Game 4 was really the only blowout in the series, with Memphis putting on an impressive show in front of their home crowd. The Big Three for the Spurs did their part for most of this series, but the rest of their rotation players were awful overall. Richard Jefferson in particular was invisible. This loss emphasized the struggles of the role players the most.
A wild Game 5 seemed over when Manu Ginobili hit an off balance shot that appeared to tie the game, but was later overruled on reply to be a 2 point shot instead of a 3, leaving the Spurs trailing by 1 with only seconds left. After fouling and allowing Memphis to hit their free throws, Gary Neal hit an improbable buzzer beater from deep to force overtime, where the Spurs went on to win to extend the series.
The exciting ending allowed the Spurs to live to see another day, but they wouldn't last much longer. These aren't the Grizzlies of old. They even have fans that show up to the games now for the first time (ever?), giving them a lot of confidence when they play in front of their home crowd, which helped drive them to close out the series. I think the Spurs win it if they force a Game 7 to go back to San Antonio, but they couldn't get it done on the road.
Predicted results: Spurs in 7
Actual results: Grizzlies in 6
Friday, April 15, 2011
NBA Playoffs - Round 1
The NBA playoffs begin this weekend, and for some teams it couldn't come soon enough. While some of the younger up and coming teams like the Bulls and Nuggets finished strong and carry momentum with them into the postseason, there are other veteran teams such as the Celtics, Lakers and Spurs that limped to the finish line. These teams know what it takes to win in the playoffs, so their focus down the stretch turned to making sure they were rested and healthy, even at the expense of valuable seeding positions. These teams are hoping that they can flip the switch and play like the contenders they are capable of being. It happened last year, but can these veteran teams do it again or is it time for the younger up and coming teams to take over? We are about to find out.
Of course to be a champion you have to get to the Finals. It's a long road to the Finals, and the first step is just getting out of Round 1. Let's breakdown the first round match-ups to see who is going to make it out of the first round.
Chicago Bulls vs Indiana Pacers
Chicago's strong finish to the regular season earned them the top seed in the East, allowing them to capitalize on the only cupcake match-up this postseason. The top heavy Eastern Conference has improved overall, but the 8th seed still allows for a sub-.500 team to make the playoffs. Three teams out West that will miss the playoffs all had better records than the Pacers.
Indiana has some good young pieces to build around, with Granger, Collison and Hibbert. They have a lot of assets and cap room, so the future of the franchise looks bright, but they aren't nearly good enough to contend yet.
Derrick Rose, the likely MVP this season, will use this series as a tune up for their postseason run. The Pacers have nobody to contain him. The confidence he builds after dominating this series will be a big boost for a group that has yet to win a playoff series.
Bulls in 5 games
Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers
Give the Sixers credit for the jump they made this season, but they are now in over their heads. The Heat got a huge break when the Celtics late season fade allowed them to get the 2 seed. The Knicks would have been a tougher match for the Heat. The Sixers lack a star player that can take over a game, while the Heat have three such players (well, two and a half anyway - sorry Chris Bosh).
Andre Iguadala is an underrated perimeter defender that should be able to at least partially contain LeBron James or Dwayne Wade, but he can't stop both of them. Lou Williams needs to get healthy enough to be effective to give the Sixers a scoring spark off the bench and they need Jodie Meeks to shake off his late season shooting slump if they are going to have a chance to steal at least one game in this series. Doug Collins has gotten his team to overachieve all season. How much more can he get out of them?
Heat in 5 games
Orlando Magic vs Atlanta Hawks
This is a tough match-up for the Magic because Jason Collins is one of the last remaining big men in the East that can contain Dwight Howard. Unfortunately, Collins doesn't provide much else to the team, so how much can they afford to use him in the playoffs at the expense of giving minutes to Al Horford and Josh Smith? Expect them to go big for stretches, pushing those two down to the 4 and 3 spots and Joe Johnson moving to the 2 spot, pushing Marvin Williams to the bench.
The Magic rely heavily on Howard to dominate games to force the opponent to double team him, allowing their shooters to get free. He will have to carry this team on his back to pull them through this series. The Magic have gotten nothing from Gilbert Arenas since they traded for him and they shouldn't expect much from him now. They just need him to make a few outside shots and not make too many mistakes. Jason Richardson needs to step up his game and be more than just a spot up shooter. He's been inconsistent since being traded from Phoenix, but when he plays well the team wins.
The Hawks have looked vulnerable lately and enter the playoffs on a six game losing streak. They match up well against the Magic, which should help make this a tough series, but the Magic will prevail.
Magic in 6 games
Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks
The Celtics swept the 4 game season series, but each game felt like a war. Well, maybe not the last one, which was the regular season finale in which both teams rested most of their starters. The first two games were nail bitters and game 3 was a blood bath.
The Knicks have arguably the two best players in this series with Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire, but the group struggled to gel after being thrown together after the mid-season blockbuster trade that brought Melo and Billups to the Knicks in exchange for virtually half their roster. Either of their two stars could take over a game and win it single handedly, but it will be tough for them to do it enough over a seven game series against a strong Celtics defense.
The Celtics once again withered down the stretch and can only hope that they can replicate the sudden turnaround in the playoffs that they showed last season when they unexpectedly pushed themselves to game 7 of the NBA Finals. Shaq's health is still a big question mark, but the rest of the team should be relatively healthy to start the playoffs. They will need Shaq to be able to contribute if they hope to make a deep playoff run, but he's not essential to them winning in the first round. Rondo is the key. The Celtics go as Rondo goes. He needs to be the same kind of triple double threat that he was in last years playoffs. They have enough talent to survive a slump to one of the Big Three, but they can't afford to have Rondo play as poorly as he did over the final month of the season.
The Knicks can score with the best of them, but their pitiful defense is just as capable of losing them games. The Celtics late season woes can mostly be attributed to a frustrating inability to score. Playing against the Knicks defense just may be the cure they've been looking for.
Celtics in 6 games
San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis tanked the last two games of the regular season to ensure they would fall to the 8th seed, allowing them to avoid an opening round match-up against the Lakers. That's too bad, since the Grizz are one of the few teams that match up well against the defending champs, with the size to compete with their bigs and a lock down defender to contain Kobe. Instead they face the Spurs. Careful what you wish for. The Spurs may be the most unappreciated and underrated 61 win top seeded team ever, as nobody seems to be picking them to reach the Finals. Have they all forgotten that the Duncan era Spurs have won 4 titles? Their core is getting old, but they've done a nice job of adding young role players to keep them in contention. Don't overlook them.
The Grizz continued to play well even after losing their best player, Rudy Gay, to a season ending injury. The teams split the season series at two games a piece, with the Grizz winning the two most recent games.
The path to the Finals got a bit harder for the Spurs when a late season injury took out Manu Ginobili. He's doubtful for Game 1, which could allow the Grizz to steal home court advantage with an opening win on the road. That will undoubtedly make the series harder, but the Spurs are a championship tested group that should be able to prevail anyway, it just may take them longer then they'd like.
Spurs in 7 games
Los Angeles Lakers vs New Orleans Hornets
What a break for LA. Despite only being the 2nd seed behind the Spurs, they have a much easier path to the Western Conference Finals. They should roll through round 1 against a Hornets team that never had a chance once David West was lost for the year. Chris Paul is talented enough to carry the team to a victory somewhere along the way, but that's about it. After that they may get to face the Mavs (assuming they make it to the next round), which is a much better matchup than the winner of the Thunder/Nuggets series. It could not have lined up much better for the Lakers.
Lakers in 5 games
Dallas Mavericks vs Portland Trail Blazers
The Mavs won 57 games and earned the #3 seed in a highly competitive West, yet they don't appear to be considered as a contender. Dirk Nowitski deserves mention as an MVP candidate, but the rest of the team looks old and run down. Tyson Chandler added some much needed toughness in the middle, but he hasn't been quite as effective since he returned from an ankle injury last month. Jason Kidd is starting to show his age and they clearly have missed the offensive contributions of Caron Butler for a while now.
The Blazers are a tough matchup for the Mavs, as they have enough strong defenders to throw at Dirk (Camby, Aldridge, Wallace, Batum) to at least slow him down. If Dirk has an off game the Mavs have no chance. It's no wonder they were 2-8 without him this season.
LaMarcus Aldrige enjoyed a break out season, nearly making the All-Star team. He went on a tear after the snub, showing that he deserved to be there. He may be able to match at least most of Dirk's production. The mid-season addition of Gerald Wallace has made the Blazers even more dangerous. The wild card in this series is Brandon Roy. He was the Blazers' best player, until his knees betrayed him. He no longer has any cartilage in his knee and the bone on bone wear and tear cost him a big chunk of the season. With the playoff schedule allowing for days off between games it should allow Roy to contribute more. It may be asking too much for him to play like his old self, but if he can come anywhere close to it then the Blazers are a dangerous team. Of all the 1st round series in either conference, this one is the most likely to produce an upset. I could see it going either way.
Blazers in 7
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets
This may be the most fun series to watch in the first round. These are two young, athletic teams that can run, score and defend. The Nuggets rank first in the league in offensive efficiency, with the Thunder not far behind in 4th.
The Nuggets have been on a role ever since their mid-season trade with the Knicks. We'll have to ask ESPN's Bill Simmons if this team qualifies under the Ewing Theory, but it appears to be the case so far, as they have actually improved since trading away their star player. They are perhaps the deepest team in the league, as some opponents have said their 2nd unit is better than the first unit on many teams.
The Thunder aren't quite as deep, but they have something Denver doesn't - a clutch scorer that can take over games. Kevin Durant is one of the best at that. Denver may be better off without Melo, but without him they have nobody that can keep pace with a scorer of Durant's caliber. They also have Russell Westbrook who is capable of taking over games as well. That one-two punch will be difficult for the Nuggets to match up with. We know that at the end of a close game it will be one of those guys taking the last shot (preferably Durant). If Denver finds itself in the same situation, who gets the ball for them? I'm not sure they even know the answer to that.
Thunder in 6 games
Of course to be a champion you have to get to the Finals. It's a long road to the Finals, and the first step is just getting out of Round 1. Let's breakdown the first round match-ups to see who is going to make it out of the first round.
Chicago Bulls vs Indiana Pacers
Chicago's strong finish to the regular season earned them the top seed in the East, allowing them to capitalize on the only cupcake match-up this postseason. The top heavy Eastern Conference has improved overall, but the 8th seed still allows for a sub-.500 team to make the playoffs. Three teams out West that will miss the playoffs all had better records than the Pacers.
Indiana has some good young pieces to build around, with Granger, Collison and Hibbert. They have a lot of assets and cap room, so the future of the franchise looks bright, but they aren't nearly good enough to contend yet.
Derrick Rose, the likely MVP this season, will use this series as a tune up for their postseason run. The Pacers have nobody to contain him. The confidence he builds after dominating this series will be a big boost for a group that has yet to win a playoff series.
Bulls in 5 games
Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers
Give the Sixers credit for the jump they made this season, but they are now in over their heads. The Heat got a huge break when the Celtics late season fade allowed them to get the 2 seed. The Knicks would have been a tougher match for the Heat. The Sixers lack a star player that can take over a game, while the Heat have three such players (well, two and a half anyway - sorry Chris Bosh).
Andre Iguadala is an underrated perimeter defender that should be able to at least partially contain LeBron James or Dwayne Wade, but he can't stop both of them. Lou Williams needs to get healthy enough to be effective to give the Sixers a scoring spark off the bench and they need Jodie Meeks to shake off his late season shooting slump if they are going to have a chance to steal at least one game in this series. Doug Collins has gotten his team to overachieve all season. How much more can he get out of them?
Heat in 5 games
Orlando Magic vs Atlanta Hawks
This is a tough match-up for the Magic because Jason Collins is one of the last remaining big men in the East that can contain Dwight Howard. Unfortunately, Collins doesn't provide much else to the team, so how much can they afford to use him in the playoffs at the expense of giving minutes to Al Horford and Josh Smith? Expect them to go big for stretches, pushing those two down to the 4 and 3 spots and Joe Johnson moving to the 2 spot, pushing Marvin Williams to the bench.
The Magic rely heavily on Howard to dominate games to force the opponent to double team him, allowing their shooters to get free. He will have to carry this team on his back to pull them through this series. The Magic have gotten nothing from Gilbert Arenas since they traded for him and they shouldn't expect much from him now. They just need him to make a few outside shots and not make too many mistakes. Jason Richardson needs to step up his game and be more than just a spot up shooter. He's been inconsistent since being traded from Phoenix, but when he plays well the team wins.
The Hawks have looked vulnerable lately and enter the playoffs on a six game losing streak. They match up well against the Magic, which should help make this a tough series, but the Magic will prevail.
Magic in 6 games
Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks
The Celtics swept the 4 game season series, but each game felt like a war. Well, maybe not the last one, which was the regular season finale in which both teams rested most of their starters. The first two games were nail bitters and game 3 was a blood bath.
The Knicks have arguably the two best players in this series with Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire, but the group struggled to gel after being thrown together after the mid-season blockbuster trade that brought Melo and Billups to the Knicks in exchange for virtually half their roster. Either of their two stars could take over a game and win it single handedly, but it will be tough for them to do it enough over a seven game series against a strong Celtics defense.
The Celtics once again withered down the stretch and can only hope that they can replicate the sudden turnaround in the playoffs that they showed last season when they unexpectedly pushed themselves to game 7 of the NBA Finals. Shaq's health is still a big question mark, but the rest of the team should be relatively healthy to start the playoffs. They will need Shaq to be able to contribute if they hope to make a deep playoff run, but he's not essential to them winning in the first round. Rondo is the key. The Celtics go as Rondo goes. He needs to be the same kind of triple double threat that he was in last years playoffs. They have enough talent to survive a slump to one of the Big Three, but they can't afford to have Rondo play as poorly as he did over the final month of the season.
The Knicks can score with the best of them, but their pitiful defense is just as capable of losing them games. The Celtics late season woes can mostly be attributed to a frustrating inability to score. Playing against the Knicks defense just may be the cure they've been looking for.
Celtics in 6 games
San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis tanked the last two games of the regular season to ensure they would fall to the 8th seed, allowing them to avoid an opening round match-up against the Lakers. That's too bad, since the Grizz are one of the few teams that match up well against the defending champs, with the size to compete with their bigs and a lock down defender to contain Kobe. Instead they face the Spurs. Careful what you wish for. The Spurs may be the most unappreciated and underrated 61 win top seeded team ever, as nobody seems to be picking them to reach the Finals. Have they all forgotten that the Duncan era Spurs have won 4 titles? Their core is getting old, but they've done a nice job of adding young role players to keep them in contention. Don't overlook them.
The Grizz continued to play well even after losing their best player, Rudy Gay, to a season ending injury. The teams split the season series at two games a piece, with the Grizz winning the two most recent games.
The path to the Finals got a bit harder for the Spurs when a late season injury took out Manu Ginobili. He's doubtful for Game 1, which could allow the Grizz to steal home court advantage with an opening win on the road. That will undoubtedly make the series harder, but the Spurs are a championship tested group that should be able to prevail anyway, it just may take them longer then they'd like.
Spurs in 7 games
Los Angeles Lakers vs New Orleans Hornets
What a break for LA. Despite only being the 2nd seed behind the Spurs, they have a much easier path to the Western Conference Finals. They should roll through round 1 against a Hornets team that never had a chance once David West was lost for the year. Chris Paul is talented enough to carry the team to a victory somewhere along the way, but that's about it. After that they may get to face the Mavs (assuming they make it to the next round), which is a much better matchup than the winner of the Thunder/Nuggets series. It could not have lined up much better for the Lakers.
Lakers in 5 games
Dallas Mavericks vs Portland Trail Blazers
The Mavs won 57 games and earned the #3 seed in a highly competitive West, yet they don't appear to be considered as a contender. Dirk Nowitski deserves mention as an MVP candidate, but the rest of the team looks old and run down. Tyson Chandler added some much needed toughness in the middle, but he hasn't been quite as effective since he returned from an ankle injury last month. Jason Kidd is starting to show his age and they clearly have missed the offensive contributions of Caron Butler for a while now.
The Blazers are a tough matchup for the Mavs, as they have enough strong defenders to throw at Dirk (Camby, Aldridge, Wallace, Batum) to at least slow him down. If Dirk has an off game the Mavs have no chance. It's no wonder they were 2-8 without him this season.
LaMarcus Aldrige enjoyed a break out season, nearly making the All-Star team. He went on a tear after the snub, showing that he deserved to be there. He may be able to match at least most of Dirk's production. The mid-season addition of Gerald Wallace has made the Blazers even more dangerous. The wild card in this series is Brandon Roy. He was the Blazers' best player, until his knees betrayed him. He no longer has any cartilage in his knee and the bone on bone wear and tear cost him a big chunk of the season. With the playoff schedule allowing for days off between games it should allow Roy to contribute more. It may be asking too much for him to play like his old self, but if he can come anywhere close to it then the Blazers are a dangerous team. Of all the 1st round series in either conference, this one is the most likely to produce an upset. I could see it going either way.
Blazers in 7
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets
This may be the most fun series to watch in the first round. These are two young, athletic teams that can run, score and defend. The Nuggets rank first in the league in offensive efficiency, with the Thunder not far behind in 4th.
The Nuggets have been on a role ever since their mid-season trade with the Knicks. We'll have to ask ESPN's Bill Simmons if this team qualifies under the Ewing Theory, but it appears to be the case so far, as they have actually improved since trading away their star player. They are perhaps the deepest team in the league, as some opponents have said their 2nd unit is better than the first unit on many teams.
The Thunder aren't quite as deep, but they have something Denver doesn't - a clutch scorer that can take over games. Kevin Durant is one of the best at that. Denver may be better off without Melo, but without him they have nobody that can keep pace with a scorer of Durant's caliber. They also have Russell Westbrook who is capable of taking over games as well. That one-two punch will be difficult for the Nuggets to match up with. We know that at the end of a close game it will be one of those guys taking the last shot (preferably Durant). If Denver finds itself in the same situation, who gets the ball for them? I'm not sure they even know the answer to that.
Thunder in 6 games
Saturday, April 9, 2011
Who is the NBA MVP?
This year has treated us to one of the most memorable NBA seasons in recent memory. The All-Star trio that united in Miami, the Carmelo Anthony trade drama, Blake Griffin taking the league by storm, blockbuster trades, and a long list of exciting young players were all responsible for bringing excitement back to basketball.
We've seen many fantastic performances this season, but unlike most years, there doesn't appear to be an undisputed pick for the league's alpha dog. Most years the choice for MVP is clear, as was the case the past two years when LeBron James had two of the most dominant seasons in league history (only Jordan has had a better single season PER than what LeBron had in each of those seasons). While LeBron may still be the best player in the league, his move to Miami weakened his case for a third straight MVP award because he now has to share the ball with two other All-Stars, which has taken a hit on his usage rate and other counting stats. Add to that the fact that Miami has underachieved in the eyes of many the pegged them as an immediate dynasty as well as the fact that you can make the case that Dwyane Wade is the most valuable player on that team because of his leadership and because he's better in crunch time. LeBron is still on the list, certainly in my top 5, but he's no longer a clear choice for number 1.
So then who is? Well, that may depend on your definition of Most Valuable Player. There are several ways to look at it, and the answer may vary depending on the definition.
We know who the players are that deserve consideration, but let's eliminate those that made the list, but just miss the cut for being considered the top choice. We'll eliminate LeBron and Wade due to the fact that they'll likely steal votes from each other just as they have taken the ball out of each other's hands all season. Plus the chemistry issues early on that led to a slightly disappointing season count against both of them. Kobe Bryant is having another strong season, leading a second half charge for the Lakers to put them back at the top of the list of contenders heading into the post-season. However, his numbers have dipped a bit this year, mostly due to his minutes dropping down to just over 33 per game, his lowest since 1998. Sorry, but you can't be considered most valuable if you're on the court that much less than the rest of the contenders. Kevin Durant leads the league in scoring and gets credit for doing so despite that Russell Westbrook's breakout season has taken away from Durant's usage rate. Westbrook actually touches the ball more, but Durant is so efficient that he finds ways to score anyway, yet it's just enough to drop him off the list. Dirk showed how valuable he is when the Mavs went 2-8 without him early this season, but the missed time does as much to hurt his case as it does to help it.
So that leaves us with two candidates to debate between at the top of the list: Derrick Rose and Dwight Howard.
The case for Rose:
24.9 PPG, 4.1 REB, 7.9 AST, .441 FG%, .859 FT%, 1.1 STL, .6 BLK, 23.57 PER, 18.3 EWA
Rose is an exciting young player enjoying the best season of his career while leading the surprising Bulls to the top seed in the East. He's a point guard with more of a scorers mentality, but still capable of getting his teammates involved. He has added a new dimension to his game this year by making 1.6 three pointers per game at a rate of .322%, which has easily surpassed his previous career highs. He also got to the free throw line nearly twice as often as his career average, while increasing his percentage from the charity stripe. This has made him an even more effective scorer, especially in crunch time, where he trails only Kobe Bryant in scoring during crunch time (according to 82games.com). Rose is a warrior that shows he wants to win every night, and it shows. He's in high gear at all times on every play. He's completely bought into the identity of the team and become their leader. He's carried the team through stretches where they were without key starters like Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah due to injuries. Watching him play you can only marvel at the array of highlight worthy cross over dribbles and drives to the hoop. Despite his accomplishments, he remains humble, with his desire to win overshadowing any personal achievements. That may be his most impressive attribute of all.
The case against Rose:
Rose is clearly the best player on his team, but you can make a case that he's not the main reason that they are winning. Chicago's jump to the top of the Eastern Conference is mainly due to their top ranked defense, masterminded by new coach Tom Thibodeau, who deserves strong consideration for coach of the year. Chicago ranks only 13th in offensive efficiency, but their defense is the strongest in the league, leading in defensive efficiency and opponent field goal percentage. Where this hurts Rose most is that he may be one of the weakest defenders on his team. There's no doubt that Rose has bought into the team concept on defense and plays equally hard on both ends of the court, but despite his athletic skills he's just not a strong defender. If defense is a big reason that the Bulls are winning and Rose isn't one of the main contributors on that end then he can't be given that much credit for the team's improvement. Chicago is also one of the deepest teams in the league, with their second unit playing nearly as efficiently as the first. Because of this, the Bulls are surprisingly only marginally better when he is not on the court, according to his plus/minus statistics. The Bulls are +7.6 points per game better than their opponents this year with Rose on the court, but still +5.4 better with Rose on the bench. That's not even the best differential on his own team.
The case for Howard:
23.1 PPG, 14.1 REB, 1.3 AST, .596 FG%, .592 FT%, 1.3 STL, 2.4 BLK, 26.18 PER, 22.3 EWA
D12 is the most dominant big man in the game. He is a beast at both ends of the court, but defense is where he really shines. He'll likely win the award again for Defensive Player of the Year, and it's not even close. He's 2nd in the league in rebounds and 3rd in blocks. When he's not swatting shot attempts he's at least getting in the way, forcing opponents to alter the angle of their shots and resulting in lower field goal percentages for opponents. Amazingly, Orlando is 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency despite that fact that the team does not have a single rotation player that is considered even above average as a defender. That's essentially the opposite of Rose, who's team is great defensively despite his defensive weakness. Howard is second in the league in PER and EWA, trailing only LeBron James in both categories and far ahead of Rose in both. He may not be as impactful on the offensive end as Rose is, but he has still taken a big step up with his offensive game this year. The work he did over the summer training with Hall of Famer Hakeem Olijuwan clearly shows in the development we've seen with his post work. He doesn't trail Rose by much in terms of points per game (still top 10 in the league), despite a vast differential in usage rate, and scores much more efficiently, as he is second in the league in FG%. Unlike Rose with the Bulls, the Magic are significantly worse when Howard is not on the floor. They outscore their opponents by +10.5 points per game with Howard, while being slightly outscored (-.3) without him. That differential of over 10 in plus/minus is far better than Rose's +2.3 differential. Plus, while Rose deserves a lot of credit for carrying his team while they were without injured players like Boozer and Noah, it should be noted that Howard has played the entire season without those players, or any players of that caliber. Aside from Rose, any of the Bulls top 3 players (Boozer, Noah, Deng) would easily be the second best player on the Magic after Howard. So the argument that Rose performed at a high level even without the help of his injured teammates doesn't hold much water against the case for Howard, who is surrounded by underachievers.
The case against Howard
As dominant as Howard can be, he's not without his flaws. Some question his mental toughness, as he sometimes appears to coast through games rather than play at the high level he's capable of at all times. Some games he doesn't need to play at that level in order for his team to win, but as good as he has been, it seems he could be better. He's yet to give us a dominant season like ones that we've seen in the past from other dominant big men like Shaq, Hakeem, Wilt or Russell, despite that he has all the physical tools to do it. There is also some speculation that Howard cares more about stats and highlights then he does about winning. I'm not convinced that's true, but I also don't think he has the killer instinct to win that a player like Kobe or even Rose has. He likes to use his shot blocking skills to make highlights by swatting the ball into the third row of the stands, but his team would benefit more if he instead swatted the ball in their direction, allowing them to push the ball on a fast break and score in transition. He also shows mental lapses in games where he commits dumb fouls or picks up an unnecessary technical foul. Howard leads the league in technical fouls and has already been suspend twice this season for it. Another case that the anti-Howard side will make is that he tends to disappear in crunch time. His team is often afraid to feed him the ball at the end of close games because of his poor free throw shooting. While it's true that the "hack-a-Howard" method can be effective, statistically teams are actually doing the Magic a favor when they foul Howard away from the basket. He's a terrible shooter, but keep in mind that he still makes nearly 60% of his free throws. That means when he's fouled and sent to the line he's likely to make more than 1 of them on average. Scoring over 1 point per possession is actually better than the Magic's typical scoring rate when shooters other than Howard attempt a field goal. Nonetheless, his team shies away from him in crunch time, which weakens his MVP case.
So the winner is?
Rose will likely win the award because he makes for a better story. The young breakout player that leads a surprising team to the top of the conference, turning them from first round fodder to championship contenders. As we've discussed, this change can't all be credited to Rose, but he is the best player on the best team in the East. Howard may be having a better season, but thanks to his lackluster supporting cast his team will have to settle for the 4 seed in the East and is not considered a strong contender. That weakens his case and will probably be enough to push Rose over the edge. I believe that it is actually Howard that has been the more valuable player this year, but I'm picking Rose to get the majority of the votes and win the award.
We've seen many fantastic performances this season, but unlike most years, there doesn't appear to be an undisputed pick for the league's alpha dog. Most years the choice for MVP is clear, as was the case the past two years when LeBron James had two of the most dominant seasons in league history (only Jordan has had a better single season PER than what LeBron had in each of those seasons). While LeBron may still be the best player in the league, his move to Miami weakened his case for a third straight MVP award because he now has to share the ball with two other All-Stars, which has taken a hit on his usage rate and other counting stats. Add to that the fact that Miami has underachieved in the eyes of many the pegged them as an immediate dynasty as well as the fact that you can make the case that Dwyane Wade is the most valuable player on that team because of his leadership and because he's better in crunch time. LeBron is still on the list, certainly in my top 5, but he's no longer a clear choice for number 1.
So then who is? Well, that may depend on your definition of Most Valuable Player. There are several ways to look at it, and the answer may vary depending on the definition.
- Best statistics: LeBron James
- Most irreplaceable: Dwight Howard
- Best clutch scorer: Dirk Nowitski
- Best player on best team: Manu Ginobili
- Player you would most want to win a game right now: Kobe Bryant
We know who the players are that deserve consideration, but let's eliminate those that made the list, but just miss the cut for being considered the top choice. We'll eliminate LeBron and Wade due to the fact that they'll likely steal votes from each other just as they have taken the ball out of each other's hands all season. Plus the chemistry issues early on that led to a slightly disappointing season count against both of them. Kobe Bryant is having another strong season, leading a second half charge for the Lakers to put them back at the top of the list of contenders heading into the post-season. However, his numbers have dipped a bit this year, mostly due to his minutes dropping down to just over 33 per game, his lowest since 1998. Sorry, but you can't be considered most valuable if you're on the court that much less than the rest of the contenders. Kevin Durant leads the league in scoring and gets credit for doing so despite that Russell Westbrook's breakout season has taken away from Durant's usage rate. Westbrook actually touches the ball more, but Durant is so efficient that he finds ways to score anyway, yet it's just enough to drop him off the list. Dirk showed how valuable he is when the Mavs went 2-8 without him early this season, but the missed time does as much to hurt his case as it does to help it.
So that leaves us with two candidates to debate between at the top of the list: Derrick Rose and Dwight Howard.
The case for Rose:
24.9 PPG, 4.1 REB, 7.9 AST, .441 FG%, .859 FT%, 1.1 STL, .6 BLK, 23.57 PER, 18.3 EWA
Rose is an exciting young player enjoying the best season of his career while leading the surprising Bulls to the top seed in the East. He's a point guard with more of a scorers mentality, but still capable of getting his teammates involved. He has added a new dimension to his game this year by making 1.6 three pointers per game at a rate of .322%, which has easily surpassed his previous career highs. He also got to the free throw line nearly twice as often as his career average, while increasing his percentage from the charity stripe. This has made him an even more effective scorer, especially in crunch time, where he trails only Kobe Bryant in scoring during crunch time (according to 82games.com). Rose is a warrior that shows he wants to win every night, and it shows. He's in high gear at all times on every play. He's completely bought into the identity of the team and become their leader. He's carried the team through stretches where they were without key starters like Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah due to injuries. Watching him play you can only marvel at the array of highlight worthy cross over dribbles and drives to the hoop. Despite his accomplishments, he remains humble, with his desire to win overshadowing any personal achievements. That may be his most impressive attribute of all.
The case against Rose:
Rose is clearly the best player on his team, but you can make a case that he's not the main reason that they are winning. Chicago's jump to the top of the Eastern Conference is mainly due to their top ranked defense, masterminded by new coach Tom Thibodeau, who deserves strong consideration for coach of the year. Chicago ranks only 13th in offensive efficiency, but their defense is the strongest in the league, leading in defensive efficiency and opponent field goal percentage. Where this hurts Rose most is that he may be one of the weakest defenders on his team. There's no doubt that Rose has bought into the team concept on defense and plays equally hard on both ends of the court, but despite his athletic skills he's just not a strong defender. If defense is a big reason that the Bulls are winning and Rose isn't one of the main contributors on that end then he can't be given that much credit for the team's improvement. Chicago is also one of the deepest teams in the league, with their second unit playing nearly as efficiently as the first. Because of this, the Bulls are surprisingly only marginally better when he is not on the court, according to his plus/minus statistics. The Bulls are +7.6 points per game better than their opponents this year with Rose on the court, but still +5.4 better with Rose on the bench. That's not even the best differential on his own team.
The case for Howard:
23.1 PPG, 14.1 REB, 1.3 AST, .596 FG%, .592 FT%, 1.3 STL, 2.4 BLK, 26.18 PER, 22.3 EWA
D12 is the most dominant big man in the game. He is a beast at both ends of the court, but defense is where he really shines. He'll likely win the award again for Defensive Player of the Year, and it's not even close. He's 2nd in the league in rebounds and 3rd in blocks. When he's not swatting shot attempts he's at least getting in the way, forcing opponents to alter the angle of their shots and resulting in lower field goal percentages for opponents. Amazingly, Orlando is 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency despite that fact that the team does not have a single rotation player that is considered even above average as a defender. That's essentially the opposite of Rose, who's team is great defensively despite his defensive weakness. Howard is second in the league in PER and EWA, trailing only LeBron James in both categories and far ahead of Rose in both. He may not be as impactful on the offensive end as Rose is, but he has still taken a big step up with his offensive game this year. The work he did over the summer training with Hall of Famer Hakeem Olijuwan clearly shows in the development we've seen with his post work. He doesn't trail Rose by much in terms of points per game (still top 10 in the league), despite a vast differential in usage rate, and scores much more efficiently, as he is second in the league in FG%. Unlike Rose with the Bulls, the Magic are significantly worse when Howard is not on the floor. They outscore their opponents by +10.5 points per game with Howard, while being slightly outscored (-.3) without him. That differential of over 10 in plus/minus is far better than Rose's +2.3 differential. Plus, while Rose deserves a lot of credit for carrying his team while they were without injured players like Boozer and Noah, it should be noted that Howard has played the entire season without those players, or any players of that caliber. Aside from Rose, any of the Bulls top 3 players (Boozer, Noah, Deng) would easily be the second best player on the Magic after Howard. So the argument that Rose performed at a high level even without the help of his injured teammates doesn't hold much water against the case for Howard, who is surrounded by underachievers.
The case against Howard
As dominant as Howard can be, he's not without his flaws. Some question his mental toughness, as he sometimes appears to coast through games rather than play at the high level he's capable of at all times. Some games he doesn't need to play at that level in order for his team to win, but as good as he has been, it seems he could be better. He's yet to give us a dominant season like ones that we've seen in the past from other dominant big men like Shaq, Hakeem, Wilt or Russell, despite that he has all the physical tools to do it. There is also some speculation that Howard cares more about stats and highlights then he does about winning. I'm not convinced that's true, but I also don't think he has the killer instinct to win that a player like Kobe or even Rose has. He likes to use his shot blocking skills to make highlights by swatting the ball into the third row of the stands, but his team would benefit more if he instead swatted the ball in their direction, allowing them to push the ball on a fast break and score in transition. He also shows mental lapses in games where he commits dumb fouls or picks up an unnecessary technical foul. Howard leads the league in technical fouls and has already been suspend twice this season for it. Another case that the anti-Howard side will make is that he tends to disappear in crunch time. His team is often afraid to feed him the ball at the end of close games because of his poor free throw shooting. While it's true that the "hack-a-Howard" method can be effective, statistically teams are actually doing the Magic a favor when they foul Howard away from the basket. He's a terrible shooter, but keep in mind that he still makes nearly 60% of his free throws. That means when he's fouled and sent to the line he's likely to make more than 1 of them on average. Scoring over 1 point per possession is actually better than the Magic's typical scoring rate when shooters other than Howard attempt a field goal. Nonetheless, his team shies away from him in crunch time, which weakens his MVP case.
So the winner is?
Rose will likely win the award because he makes for a better story. The young breakout player that leads a surprising team to the top of the conference, turning them from first round fodder to championship contenders. As we've discussed, this change can't all be credited to Rose, but he is the best player on the best team in the East. Howard may be having a better season, but thanks to his lackluster supporting cast his team will have to settle for the 4 seed in the East and is not considered a strong contender. That weakens his case and will probably be enough to push Rose over the edge. I believe that it is actually Howard that has been the more valuable player this year, but I'm picking Rose to get the majority of the votes and win the award.
Thursday, April 7, 2011
Rough start for Sox
This is not the way we all envisioned the season starting. Not after many experts (plus myself) picked this team to win the World Series. Not after the team made waves in the off-season by signing big name free agent Carl Crawford and trading for slugger Adrian Gonzalez. The Boston Red Sox were supposed to be... good!
Yet here we are, a week into the season, and the Red Sox sit tied for last place. Not just in the AL East, but in all of baseball. Their 0-6 start is their worst since the 1996 season. As we've all heard over the past few days, no team has ever started so poorly and gone on to win the World Series. The 1985 Cardinals started 0-4 and went to the World Series, losing in 7 games. That's the closest comparison we have to what the Red Sox hope to accomplish this year after a frustrating slow start.
Despite what you may hear around Boston these days, all is not lost. Not yet anyway. On paper this is still the same team we gushed over all off-season. The line up is loaded with talent and will inevitably start to score more runs. The meager 2.6 runs per game they have managed so far is a far cry from what they are capable of. As the weather starts to heat up this summer, so will their bats. Say what you want about the question marks at the end of the pitching rotation, but this staff is not nearly as bad as their league worst 8.33 ERA would suggest. They will get better as well.
The most obvious defense to be made is that we're dealing with an extremely small sample size. Every team, even the elite teams, go through losing streaks during the grueling 162 game season. This streak is blown out of proportion due to the fact that it happens to be the first six games of the season. If this happened in July we wouldn't be thrilled, but we wouldn't be panicking either. Last year the San Fransisco Giants had a 7 game losing streak in the middle of the season, yet they went on to win the World Series. The 2004 and 2007 Red Sox teams both had multiple losing streaks that compare to this one. They just didn't start off the season on those losing streaks. It's not uncommon for winning teams to go into a funk during stretches of a long season. As Adrian Gonzalez pointed out, we'll all forget about this 2 weeks from now.
There are several factors that have contributed to the early season woes. While some of them do pose a concern, there are others that we can likely dismiss as typical early season struggles that the players will eventually work their way out of. Some players, such as Jon Lester, have historically been slow starters. The first few starts of the season are always rough before he turns things around. If you discount April statistics then Lester is the most dominant pitcher in the game. Last year's miserable April likely cost him the Cy Young award, as his stats from May onward were comparable with eventual winner Felix Hernandez, but Lester also had more wins. Give him a few more starts to get going and he'll turn things around. By the end of the season he'll still rate as one of the league's top starters. Many were disappointed by the debut season of John Lackey last year, but much of that is due to the fact that he's another historically slow starter. He was much better in the second half of the season last year. It wasn't long ago that he was considered an elite starter and the top free agent prize on the market. Let's not give up on him after one bad start. Clay Buccholz may not match last season's 2.33 ERA, but a player that only gave up 9 home runs all of last season isn't likely to give up 4 in one game again. Then there is Josh Beckett, who despite his struggles last year, has enough of a track record for us to believe he can still be an elite pitcher as long as he's healthy. The pattern of his career is that he alternates poor seasons with great seasons. This being an odd year, expect him to bounce back.
While most of the team's struggles have been with the pitching, the hitting hasn't been nearly as good as it can be. David Ortiz is a notorious slow starter. While it was nice to see him hit two home runs early in the season, he's not exactly off to a blistering start. Expect that .227 average and .292 OBP to climb as the season progresses. Kevin Youkilis has struggled early, but I think it's safe to say he'll hit better than his current .105 and drive in a few more runs. Right now Adrian Gonzalez is the only one hitting even close to as well as we expected, so when the rest of the team catches up to him then this lineup will really start to click. There are some new pieces trying to fit in on this team and you also need to consider that nearly half of their lineup is attempting to come back from season ending injuries suffered last year. A slow start for them should have been expected.
The mentality throughout Red Sox Nation seems to be that the sky is falling. Relax people! Take a deep breath, sit back and realize that it's only 6 games. All of which were on the road. Perhaps a home stand this weekend against the rival Yankees will spark some energy into this team. Something has to, and soon. Just remember, there are still 156 more games to go. No team has ever won a World Series after this slow of a start? So let's make history! We've done it before, back in 2004, when they said no team has ever come back to win a series after being down 3 games to none. Yet we did it. Unprecedented doesn't mean impossible. Don't lose hope yet.
Yet here we are, a week into the season, and the Red Sox sit tied for last place. Not just in the AL East, but in all of baseball. Their 0-6 start is their worst since the 1996 season. As we've all heard over the past few days, no team has ever started so poorly and gone on to win the World Series. The 1985 Cardinals started 0-4 and went to the World Series, losing in 7 games. That's the closest comparison we have to what the Red Sox hope to accomplish this year after a frustrating slow start.
Despite what you may hear around Boston these days, all is not lost. Not yet anyway. On paper this is still the same team we gushed over all off-season. The line up is loaded with talent and will inevitably start to score more runs. The meager 2.6 runs per game they have managed so far is a far cry from what they are capable of. As the weather starts to heat up this summer, so will their bats. Say what you want about the question marks at the end of the pitching rotation, but this staff is not nearly as bad as their league worst 8.33 ERA would suggest. They will get better as well.
The most obvious defense to be made is that we're dealing with an extremely small sample size. Every team, even the elite teams, go through losing streaks during the grueling 162 game season. This streak is blown out of proportion due to the fact that it happens to be the first six games of the season. If this happened in July we wouldn't be thrilled, but we wouldn't be panicking either. Last year the San Fransisco Giants had a 7 game losing streak in the middle of the season, yet they went on to win the World Series. The 2004 and 2007 Red Sox teams both had multiple losing streaks that compare to this one. They just didn't start off the season on those losing streaks. It's not uncommon for winning teams to go into a funk during stretches of a long season. As Adrian Gonzalez pointed out, we'll all forget about this 2 weeks from now.
There are several factors that have contributed to the early season woes. While some of them do pose a concern, there are others that we can likely dismiss as typical early season struggles that the players will eventually work their way out of. Some players, such as Jon Lester, have historically been slow starters. The first few starts of the season are always rough before he turns things around. If you discount April statistics then Lester is the most dominant pitcher in the game. Last year's miserable April likely cost him the Cy Young award, as his stats from May onward were comparable with eventual winner Felix Hernandez, but Lester also had more wins. Give him a few more starts to get going and he'll turn things around. By the end of the season he'll still rate as one of the league's top starters. Many were disappointed by the debut season of John Lackey last year, but much of that is due to the fact that he's another historically slow starter. He was much better in the second half of the season last year. It wasn't long ago that he was considered an elite starter and the top free agent prize on the market. Let's not give up on him after one bad start. Clay Buccholz may not match last season's 2.33 ERA, but a player that only gave up 9 home runs all of last season isn't likely to give up 4 in one game again. Then there is Josh Beckett, who despite his struggles last year, has enough of a track record for us to believe he can still be an elite pitcher as long as he's healthy. The pattern of his career is that he alternates poor seasons with great seasons. This being an odd year, expect him to bounce back.
While most of the team's struggles have been with the pitching, the hitting hasn't been nearly as good as it can be. David Ortiz is a notorious slow starter. While it was nice to see him hit two home runs early in the season, he's not exactly off to a blistering start. Expect that .227 average and .292 OBP to climb as the season progresses. Kevin Youkilis has struggled early, but I think it's safe to say he'll hit better than his current .105 and drive in a few more runs. Right now Adrian Gonzalez is the only one hitting even close to as well as we expected, so when the rest of the team catches up to him then this lineup will really start to click. There are some new pieces trying to fit in on this team and you also need to consider that nearly half of their lineup is attempting to come back from season ending injuries suffered last year. A slow start for them should have been expected.
The mentality throughout Red Sox Nation seems to be that the sky is falling. Relax people! Take a deep breath, sit back and realize that it's only 6 games. All of which were on the road. Perhaps a home stand this weekend against the rival Yankees will spark some energy into this team. Something has to, and soon. Just remember, there are still 156 more games to go. No team has ever won a World Series after this slow of a start? So let's make history! We've done it before, back in 2004, when they said no team has ever come back to win a series after being down 3 games to none. Yet we did it. Unprecedented doesn't mean impossible. Don't lose hope yet.
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