Wednesday, April 27, 2011

NBA Playoffs: Round 1 Recap

The NBA playoffs can sometimes seem like it takes forever.  With a total of 16 teams able to advance to the postseason and each round being a best of 7 battle, the NBA postseason lasts much longer than the playoffs in other sports, such as in the NFL and MLB.  One of the most exciting seasons in recent history has provided us with some of the most entertaining first round match-ups we've seen in a long time, so regardless of how long it takes, fans won't get tired of it.

Let's recap the first round to see which teams surprised us and which teams took care of business.

Boston Celtics defeat New York Knicks
The first two games of this series played out much like their regular season match-ups.  They were exciting dog fights, each ending as close one possession games.  Ray Allen, with ice water flowing through his veins, hit a deciding 3 pointer to put away Game 1.  The outlook appeared gloomy for Boston in the final minute until a beautifully scripted inbounds play resulted in Rajon Rondo connecting with KG for an alley oop to pull within 1 point, while hardly taking any time off the clock.  On the following possession, Carmelo Anthony turned the ball over on an offensive foul that Knicks fans will forever complain about (it was a foul, therefore the correct call, yet even I was surprised that a star like Melo was called for it at such a critical moment of the game).  Moments later Ray hit the dagger to put the game away.  It was a tough loss for the Knicks, but it set the stage for what looked like it would be a grueling hard fought series.
Then things fell apart rather quickly for the Knicks.  Chauncey Billups exited at the end of Game 1 with a sprained knee and never returned in this series.  Without a true point guard to lead them, the Knicks struggled to run their offense, often looking stagnant and relying too heavily on iso plays for Melo.  To make matters worse, Amare Stoudemire exited Game 2 early with back spasms that would plague him the rest of the series.  He would return for the next game, but never looked right the rest of the way.  An amazing performance by Melo (42 points, 17 rebounds) kept them in the game until the end, but even his brilliant performance wasn't enough, as the Knicks fell again in Boston.  The Knicks would head back home knowing they should have stolen at least one of the first two games.
Being that it was the first postseason game in Madison Square Garden in 7 years, you would have expected the Knicks to come out with a lot of energy and demand victory.  Instead, they came out lifeless and were blown out on their home court in the final two games, concluding the sweep. 
The Knicks will use the excuse that injuries derailed their chances in this series.  It's probably true that if Billups had played and if Amare was his healthy dominating self then this series likely would have been drawn out a bit longer, but it was clear the Knicks didn't have the depth or defensive ability to beat the Celtics.  Plus, it's not as if the Celtics don't know a thing or two about suffering injuries, as they battled them all season and were without one of their starters for this series as well (not that Shaq was really needed against this team). 
The Knicks can point fingers and make excuses all they want, but they have only themselves to blame for their disappointing quick exit.  They should have won Game 2, but Mike D'Antoni's inexcusable decision to leave Jared Jeffries on the court on the deciding play of the game cost them.  They had to know Melo would get double teamed and the Celtics forced him to pass the ball.  Unfortunately, the only open option was the offensive liability, Jeffries.  He should have taken the shot, but instead he hesitated long enough for Garnett to get to him.  Instead of trusting that he had the best shot, he panicked and attempted to pass the ball to Bill Walker (0 for 11 from the field in the game).  KG stole the ball, sealing the victory.  When the final chance to win is put in the hands of two of your worst offensive players, the coach has to take the blame.  Considering they were coming out of a time out, not only should he have drawn up a better play, but neither of those players should even have been on the court.  That was their best chance to win in this series, and after they blew that chance and fell into an early hole, it sucked the energy out of the team and it spiraled out of control from there.  Injuries or not, the Knicks never stood a chance after that.  Not against a championship tested squad like the Celtics, who proved they still have something left in the tank.
The series sweep allows the Celtics to get a much needed break, as they'll have a week off before starting their next series.  Nagging injuries will have time to heal, they'll get some much needed practice time and maybe even get a certain future Hall of Fame center back on the court.
Predicted result: Celtics in 6
Actual result: Celtics in 4

Chicago Bulls defeat Indiana Pacers
Nobody expected much out of the Pacers coming into this series, which is understandable considering they were playing the team with the best record in the league, while they snuck into the playoffs despite losing most of their regular season games (37-45).  Despite the large gap in their records, the Pacers proved the gap isn't quite as big on the court.  They matched up fairly well with the Bulls with their energy and athleticism, which allowed them to give the Bulls a much tougher match-up then they expected.  The Pacers actually led the majority of the time in the first 3 games, before MVP front-runner Derek Rose took over down the stretch to close out the game. 
The Pacers have a lot of quality young talent and a bright future, but the one thing they are lacking is the experience to know how to close out a game and a super star talent to take over down the stretch.  The Bulls have that and the Pacers don't, which proved to be the difference in this series.  Danny Granger is a great player, but he's not an elite super star.  He'd make a great 2nd or 3rd option on a lot of playoff teams, but he's miscast as being "The Man" in Indiana for lack of a better option. 
The Pacers did manage to steal a game at home, although they nearly collapsed in the 4th quarter once again.  This time they managed to hang on, but that only delayed the inevitable, as they got blown out in Game 5 when the Bulls closed out the series at home. 
The Pacers managed to put a scare into the top seeded team by playing them tough.  An ankle injury to Derek Rose terrified them the most, until he put Chicago fan's minds at ease by coming back with a productive series clinching game.  Even when healthy, Rose struggled at times in this series.  The Pacers game planned to try to take the ball out of his hands and force someone else to beat them, which worked for the majority of the game, but fell apart at the end of games when nobody could contain Rose.  The boxscores showed he still scored plenty of points, but didn't do so nearly as efficiently as he did in the regular season.  His shooting percentage was down, as he settled for too many long distance shots, and his assist numbers were down while his turnovers went up.
Jeff Foster cast himself as the self proclaimed villain in the series after the Bulls complained about multiple hard fouls.  It created some bad blood between the division rivals that could carry over to future seasons as the rivalry between these young teams continues.
Predicted results: Bulls in 5
Actual results: Bulls in 5

Miami Heat defeat Philadelphia 76ers
As expected, the Heat breezed through this series with relative ease.  The Sixers were able to get off to some early leads in the series and kept the games close in 4 out of the 5 games, but the disparity in talent proved to be too much in the end.  The All-Star trio took turns leading the team in scoring in each of the first three games, with Wade's near triple-double (32 points, 8 rebounds, 10 assists) in Game 3 being the most dominant performance in the series.
Despite winning in only 5 games, the Heat were far from dominant and showed some growing signs of concern that could haunt them as they advance further into the postseason.  For starters, given their superior talent, these games should not have been as close as they were.  Game 2's blowout victory at home was the only game that didn't come down to the wire, with the Sixers being within reach in the final minute of the game.  The Sixers have a lot of young talent, but lack a go to scorer down the stretch.  Andre Iguadala is their best player, but that's because he's one of the league's best wing defenders, as well as a playmaker on offense.  Yet he's far from the elite scorer that teams need to close out playoff games.
Speaking of trouble closing games, that's an issue that has plagued the Heat all season, despite that they have two of the game's best scorers on the court.  Their Game 4 loss came down to the final seconds where LeBron James had a chance to tie the game.  He drove to the lane, but instead of going strong and trying to power the ball to the hoop or force the defense to foul him, he threw up a soft floater, which was partially blocked by Elton Brand, and missed badly, sealing their defeat.  Miami is now a worrisome 1-19 shooting in the final 10 seconds of a game where they trail by 3 points or less or are tied.  Their lack of clutch shooting at the end of games is mind boggling and potentially devastating once they start facing tougher opponents.
Their other big issue is that they continue to start Mike Bibby and Zydrunas Ilgauskas together, despite that their pairing is the worst defensive combination at their positions.  The Heat were much better when Bibby played with Joel Anthony or Z played with Chalmers, but when both were on the court the Sixers were able to exploit them with pick and rolls.
The Heat roll into the next round, but this series highlighted some of their weaknesses that could be exploited against superior opponents.
Predicted results: Heat in 5
Actual results: Heat in 5

Atlanta Hawks defeat Orlando Magic
The Hawks figured to have a chance in this series because by inserting Jason Collins into the starting lineup they are one of the few teams in the East that are able to contain Dwight Howard.  Well, at least that was the line of thinking heading into the series, but D12 quickly put that idea to rest when he exploded for 46 points and 19 rebounds in Game 1.  Problem is, the Magic still lost.  How did that happen?  As dominant as Howard was, the Hawks stuck with their strategy of using Collins to guard him alone.  Howard was able to get his points, but the strategy of not double teaming him meant that the shooters along the perimeter struggled to find open shots.  The Magic are at their best when they throw the ball into the paint to Howard and then kick it out to the open man when the defenders double team him.  That didn't happen in this series.
The Magic shooters were also uncharacteristically off target when they did get shots.  Meanwhile, Jamal Crawford was lighting up the scoreboard off the bench at an unsustainable pace.  It seemed only a matter of time before things evened out, but unfortunately for the Magic it was too late.  Hedo Turkoglu was awful all series, while Gilbert Arenas was so bad that he was actually benched for one game.
Jason Richardson started off poorly in the series, but to make matters worse he was suspended for Game 4 due to an altercation in the previous game.  This was a big blow for the Magic.  In a game that ended up being close at the end, having their 2nd best player surely would have made a difference.  Zaza Pachulia bated J-Rich into the fight that got them both suspended with an unnecessary headbutt that understandably set Richardson off.  I think the Hawks didn't mind missing their back up big man at the expense of one of Orlando's only players capable of getting his own shot.  Granted Richardson should have kept his cool given the circumstances, and fighting in games is never acceptable, but it was a cheap shot by Zaza (we've seen plenty of that from him over the years) that resulted in a big advantage for Atlanta, which may have swung the series.
Atlanta will be happy with the series win, especially after being swept by the Magic in last year's playoffs.  However, they had some concerns of their own.  Joe Johnson was inconsistent all series, which has been the case for most of his playoff career.  In their Game 2 loss they inexplicably benched All-Star forward Al Horford for most of the first half after he got into early foul trouble.  He finished the game playing only 26 minutes despite only committing 2 fouls all game (they just happened to both be in the first quarter).  They also can't expect Crawford to stay as hot as he was in this series, especially when they move on to face a Bulls team with better perimeter defenders.  Aside from Howard, the Magic don't have any capable defenders.
Magic fans have to wonder if this early round exit will signal the end of the D12 era in Orlando.  He has already been hesitant to sign an extension with the team, and this playoff let down won't encourage him to stay past next season.
Predicted results: Magic in 6
Actual results: Hawks in 6


Oklahoma City Thunder defeat Denver Nuggets
I expected this to be one of the better series of the postseason, given that both teams came in as hot as any team in the league.  Denver deserves a ton of credit for the way they played after trading away Carmelo Anthony.  They got back a load of talent in the deal, and despite not having a super star player, they were still one of the best teams in the league down the stretch. 
Unfortunately for them, they ran into an even hotter Thunder team.  Kevin Durant led his team to their first playoff series victory since the team moved to OKC.  He put his stamp on this series by scoring a career playoff high 41 points in both their opening game as well as the series clinching Game 5.
Denver did manage to win Game 4 at home, but even that was a close game that came down to the final seconds.  Shot selection, particularly by Russell Westbrook, doomed the Thunder in this game.  The young All-Star point guard scored 30 points in the game, but took 30 shots to get there.  That was easily a game high, and 12 more shots than Durant (who scored 31 points on only 18 shots).  It was only fitting that when the Thunder needed a 3 to tie at the end of the game that it was Westbrook missing the shot.  Westbrook is a great player who is establishing himself as one of the league's best young PGs, but one of his biggest issues is shot selection.  He's a great scorer, but he has to realize that Durant is the league's best scorer.  He needs to find ways to get Durant the ball more instead of trying to do too much on his own.  Keep in mind that Westbrook is still young and hardly played the PG position before entering the NBA, so he still has plenty of time to improve in this area.  As long as the team can avoid an Alpha Dog controversy between their two stars, the Thunder will be a very dangerous team.  We've known for a while that their future was bright, but this series victory may be a sign that their future is now.
Predicted results: Thunder in 6
Actual results: Thunder in 5

LA Lakers defeat New Orleans Hornets
Nobody expected much out of the Hornets in this series, considering they were facing the defending champs and had recently lost their 2nd best player - David West.  That's why it came as a shock to most people when the Hornets stole Game 1.  How did that happen?  Turns out Chris Paul can still play, that's how.  Recovering from a knee injury, Paul never looked like his old self this season.  He appeared to have lost his explosiveness and had to get buy on being crafty instead.  Once the postseason started, CP3 showed that he's still capable of kicking it into a higher gear.  He may not be able to do it every game, especially during the regular season, but he's still capable of turning it up a notch when he has to.  He single handedly won them 2 games in this series, when many wouldn't have been surprised if they didn't win any.  His eye popping triple-double (27-15-13) was one of the best playoff performances we've seen this year.  In the end, it wasn't enough to get passed a superior Lakers team, but it was good to see CP3 can still take over games like that, proving he's not ready to give up the title of league's #1 PG just yet.
The Lakers advance, but it probably took them a little longer than they would have liked.  For a team full of aging veterans, the less playoff games they have to play along the way, the better.  It also has to be a concern that Pau Gasol was invisible for most of the series.  They will need him to step up and play with fire if they hope to go deep into the postseason.  Paul's mastery in the series also pointed out the Lakers glaring weakness of stopping quick guards.  Jason Kidd, who they will see in the next series, no longer fits that category, but if they advance to the Western Finals and NBA Finals then they may need to go up against the likes of Russell Westbrook, Derek Rose or Rajon Rondo along the way.  Any of those young talented PGs would cause this Lakers defense a lot of headaches.
Perhaps the biggest concern may be around the health of Kobe Bryant, who injured his ankle (or was it his foot? Depends on who you ask) in this series.  He did return to play, but it has to be bothering him.  The Lakers better hope it heals quickly and that he doesn't re-injure it or else they are in big trouble.
Predicted results: Lakers in 5
Actual results: Lakers in 6

Dallas Mavericks defeat Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers were my pick to be the one team to upset a higher seed this postseason due to the number of defenders they had capable of shutting down Dirk Nowitski.  It didn't work out that way, as Dirk averaged a respectable 27.3 points per game in the series while leading Dallas to a series victory.  The Blazers, as it turned out, had no answers for Dirk or Jason Terry in this series.  Even Jason Kidd looked rejuvenated in this series, despite resembling a decaying corpse by the end of the regular season.
The silver lining for the Blazers in this series was their Game 4 win in which Brandon Roy appeared to have traveled back in time to days when he had healthy knees.  He led the team with 24 points - 18 of which came in an outstanding 4th quarter - to help erase a 23 point deficit to stage a record comeback victory.  Roy's balky knees cost him a big chunk of the season and limited his minutes when he did return.  The former All-Star was unhappy with his decreased role and frustrated that the offense no longer ran through him when he was in the game.  Until that magical 4th quarter when it looked like we were seeing the old Roy.  Perhaps this can give Blazers fans hope that his career isn't all but over after all.
Meanwhile, Dallas has to have gained some confidence knowing that if it weren't for a miracle comeback by the Blazers in Game 4 they would have coasted to a series victory fairly easily.  Portland plays very well at home, so it's no shock that they managed to win at least one game in the Rose Garden, so the Mavs have to feel good about being able to close out the series with a Game 6 victory on the road.  With the Lakers showing more signs of struggles against a lesser opponent, perhaps the Mavs have a better chance in the next round than we've been giving them credit for.  Well, at least Mark Cuban thinks so.
Predicted results: Blazers in 7
Actual results: Mavs in 6

Memphis Grizzlies defeat San Antonio Spurs
For only the second time in history, a #8 seed beat a #1 seed in a best of 7 series.  The Spurs were the best team in the league for most of the season, but struggled down the stretch, entering the playoffs without the momentum they had earlier this year.  Meanwhile, Memphis was the opposite, finishing the season strong and playing much better than their record would indicate.
Memphis caught a break in Game 1 with Manu Ginobili sidelined with an elbow injury.  Despite being without their star, the Spurs looked like they would hold on at the end until Shane Battier drained a 3 to give the Grizz a lead.  The Spurs came back to even the series in Game 2 thanks to Manu's return, but losing home court put them in a hole.
The Spurs had a chance to take back control of the series, but Memphis stole another game with a game winning 3 pointer by Zach Randolph, who hit only eight 3's the entire season at a miserable 18%.  The defense gave him plenty of room, as if daring him to shoot (or perhaps thinking there was no chance of him taking the shot).  Z-Bo shrugged his shoulders and hoisted up the shot.  Had he missed that shot I think his coach would have killed him, but when it works it's always a great idea.
Game 4 was really the only blowout in the series, with Memphis putting on an impressive show in front of their home crowd.  The Big Three for the Spurs did their part for most of this series, but the rest of their rotation players were awful overall.  Richard Jefferson in particular was invisible.  This loss emphasized the struggles of the role players the most.
A wild Game 5 seemed over when Manu Ginobili hit an off balance shot that appeared to tie the game, but was later overruled on reply to be a 2 point shot instead of a 3, leaving the Spurs trailing by 1 with only seconds left.  After fouling and allowing Memphis to hit their free throws, Gary Neal hit an improbable buzzer beater from deep to force overtime, where the Spurs went on to win to extend the series.
The exciting ending allowed the Spurs to live to see another day, but they wouldn't last much longer.  These aren't the Grizzlies of old.  They even have fans that show up to the games now for the first time (ever?), giving them a lot of confidence when they play in front of their home crowd, which helped drive them to close out the series.  I think the Spurs win it if they force a Game 7 to go back to San Antonio, but they couldn't get it done on the road.
Predicted results: Spurs in 7
Actual results: Grizzlies in 6

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