NBA Playoffs - Round 1

The NBA playoffs begin this weekend, and for some teams it couldn't come soon enough.  While some of the younger up and coming teams like the Bulls and Nuggets finished strong and carry momentum with them into the postseason, there are other veteran teams such as the Celtics, Lakers and Spurs that limped to the finish line.  These teams know what it takes to win in the playoffs, so their focus down the stretch turned to making sure they were rested and healthy, even at the expense of valuable seeding positions.  These teams are hoping that they can flip the switch and play like the contenders they are capable of being.  It happened last year, but can these veteran teams do it again or is it time for the younger up and coming teams to take over?  We are about to find out.

Of course to be a champion you have to get to the Finals.  It's a long road to the Finals, and the first step is just getting out of Round 1.  Let's breakdown the first round match-ups to see who is going to make it out of the first round.

Chicago Bulls vs Indiana Pacers
Chicago's strong finish to the regular season earned them the top seed in the East, allowing them to capitalize on the only cupcake match-up this postseason.  The top heavy Eastern Conference has improved overall, but the 8th seed still allows for a sub-.500 team to make the playoffs.  Three teams out West that will miss the playoffs all had better records than the Pacers.
Indiana has some good young pieces to build around, with Granger, Collison and Hibbert.  They have a lot of assets and cap room, so the future of the franchise looks bright, but they aren't nearly good enough to contend yet. 
Derrick Rose, the likely MVP this season, will use this series as a tune up for their postseason run.  The Pacers have nobody to contain him.  The confidence he builds after dominating this series will be a big boost for a group that has yet to win a playoff series.
Bulls in 5 games

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers
Give the Sixers credit for the jump they made this season, but they are now in over their heads.  The Heat got a huge break when the Celtics late season fade allowed them to get the 2 seed.  The Knicks would have been a tougher match for the Heat.  The Sixers lack a star player that can take over a game, while the Heat have three such players (well, two and a half anyway - sorry Chris Bosh). 
Andre Iguadala is an underrated perimeter defender that should be able to at least partially contain LeBron James or Dwayne Wade, but he can't stop both of them.  Lou Williams needs to get healthy enough to be effective to give the Sixers a scoring spark off the bench and they need Jodie Meeks to shake off his late season shooting slump if they are going to have a chance to steal at least one game in this series.  Doug Collins has gotten his team to overachieve all season.  How much more can he get out of them?
Heat in 5 games

Orlando Magic vs Atlanta Hawks
This is a tough match-up for the Magic because Jason Collins is one of the last remaining big men in the East that can contain Dwight Howard.  Unfortunately, Collins doesn't provide much else to the team, so how much can they afford to use him in the playoffs at the expense of giving minutes to Al Horford and Josh Smith?  Expect them to go big for stretches, pushing those two down to the 4 and 3 spots and Joe Johnson moving to the 2 spot, pushing Marvin Williams to the bench. 
The Magic rely heavily on Howard to dominate games to force the opponent to double team him, allowing their shooters to get free.  He will have to carry this team on his back to pull them through this series.  The Magic have gotten nothing from Gilbert Arenas since they traded for him and they shouldn't expect much from him now.  They just need him to make a few outside shots and not make too many mistakes.  Jason Richardson needs to step up his game and be more than just a spot up shooter.  He's been inconsistent since being traded from Phoenix, but when he plays well the team wins.
The Hawks have looked vulnerable lately and enter the playoffs on a six game losing streak.  They match up well against the Magic, which should help make this a tough series, but the Magic will prevail.
Magic in 6 games

Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks
The Celtics swept the 4 game season series, but each game felt like a war.  Well, maybe not the last one, which was the regular season finale in which both teams rested most of their starters.  The first two games were nail bitters and game 3 was a blood bath. 
The Knicks have arguably the two best players in this series with Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire, but the group struggled to gel after being thrown together after the mid-season blockbuster trade that brought Melo and Billups to the Knicks in exchange for virtually half their roster.  Either of their two stars could take over a game and win it single handedly, but it will be tough for them to do it enough over a seven game series against a strong Celtics defense. 
The Celtics once again withered down the stretch and can only hope that they can replicate the sudden turnaround in the playoffs that they showed last season when they unexpectedly pushed themselves to game 7 of the NBA Finals.  Shaq's health is still a big question mark, but the rest of the team should be relatively healthy to start the playoffs.  They will need Shaq to be able to contribute if they hope to make a deep playoff run, but he's not essential to them winning in the first round.  Rondo is the key.  The Celtics go as Rondo goes.  He needs to be the same kind of triple double threat that he was in last years playoffs.  They have enough talent to survive a slump to one of the Big Three, but they can't afford to have Rondo play as poorly as he did over the final month of the season.
The Knicks can score with the best of them, but their pitiful defense is just as capable of losing them games.  The Celtics late season woes can mostly be attributed to a frustrating inability to score.  Playing against the Knicks defense just may be the cure they've been looking for.
Celtics in 6 games

San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis tanked the last two games of the regular season to ensure they would fall to the 8th seed, allowing them to avoid an opening round match-up against the Lakers.  That's too bad, since the Grizz are one of the few teams that match up well against the defending champs, with the size to compete with their bigs and a lock down defender to contain Kobe.  Instead they face the Spurs.  Careful what you wish for.  The Spurs may be the most unappreciated and underrated 61 win top seeded team ever, as nobody seems to be picking them to reach the Finals.  Have they all forgotten that the Duncan era Spurs have won 4 titles?  Their core is getting old, but they've done a nice job of adding young role players to keep them in contention.  Don't overlook them.
The Grizz continued to play well even after losing their best player, Rudy Gay, to a season ending injury.  The teams split the season series at two games a piece, with the Grizz winning the two most recent games. 
The path to the Finals got a bit harder for the Spurs when a late season injury took out Manu Ginobili.  He's doubtful for Game 1, which could allow the Grizz to steal home court advantage with an opening win on the road.  That will undoubtedly make the series harder, but the Spurs are a championship tested group that should be able to prevail anyway, it just may take them longer then they'd like.
Spurs in 7 games

Los Angeles Lakers vs New Orleans Hornets
What a break for LA.  Despite only being the 2nd seed behind the Spurs, they have a much easier path to the Western Conference Finals.  They should roll through round 1 against a Hornets team that never had a chance once David West was lost for the year.  Chris Paul is talented enough to carry the team to a victory somewhere along the way, but that's about it.  After that they may get to face the Mavs (assuming they make it to the next round), which is a much better matchup than the winner of the Thunder/Nuggets series.  It could not have lined up much better for the Lakers.
Lakers in 5 games

Dallas Mavericks vs Portland Trail Blazers
The Mavs won 57 games and earned the #3 seed in a highly competitive West, yet they don't appear to be considered as a contender.  Dirk Nowitski deserves mention as an MVP candidate, but the rest of the team looks old and run down.  Tyson Chandler added some much needed toughness in the middle, but he hasn't been quite as effective since he returned from an ankle injury last month.  Jason Kidd is starting to show his age and they clearly have missed the offensive contributions of Caron Butler for a while now.
The Blazers are a tough matchup for the Mavs, as they have enough strong defenders to throw at Dirk (Camby, Aldridge, Wallace, Batum) to at least slow him down.  If Dirk has an off game the Mavs have no chance.  It's no wonder they were 2-8 without him this season. 
LaMarcus Aldrige enjoyed a break out season, nearly making the All-Star team.  He went on a tear after the snub, showing that he deserved to be there.  He may be able to match at least most of Dirk's production.  The mid-season addition of Gerald Wallace has made the Blazers even more dangerous.  The wild card in this series is Brandon Roy.  He was the Blazers' best player, until his knees betrayed him.  He no longer has any cartilage in his knee and the bone on bone wear and tear cost him a big chunk of the season.  With the playoff schedule allowing for days off between games it should allow Roy to contribute more.  It may be asking too much for him to play like his old self, but if he can come anywhere close to it then the Blazers are a dangerous team.  Of all the 1st round series in either conference, this one is the most likely to produce an upset.  I could see it going either way.
Blazers in 7

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets
This may be the most fun series to watch in the first round.  These are two young, athletic teams that can run, score and defend.  The Nuggets rank first in the league in offensive efficiency, with the Thunder not far behind in 4th. 
The Nuggets have been on a role ever since their mid-season trade with the Knicks.  We'll have to ask ESPN's Bill Simmons if this team qualifies under the Ewing Theory, but it appears to be the case so far, as they have actually improved since trading away their star player.  They are perhaps the deepest team in the league, as some opponents have said their 2nd unit is better than the first unit on many teams. 
The Thunder aren't quite as deep, but they have something Denver doesn't - a clutch scorer that can take over games.  Kevin Durant is one of the best at that.  Denver may be better off without Melo, but without him they have nobody that can keep pace with a scorer of Durant's caliber.  They also have Russell Westbrook who is capable of taking over games as well.  That one-two punch will be difficult for the Nuggets to match up with.  We know that at the end of a close game it will be one of those guys taking the last shot (preferably Durant).  If Denver finds itself in the same situation, who gets the ball for them?  I'm not sure they even know the answer to that.
Thunder in 6 games