This is not the way we all envisioned the season starting. Not after many experts (plus myself) picked this team to win the World Series. Not after the team made waves in the off-season by signing big name free agent Carl Crawford and trading for slugger Adrian Gonzalez. The Boston Red Sox were supposed to be... good!
Yet here we are, a week into the season, and the Red Sox sit tied for last place. Not just in the AL East, but in all of baseball. Their 0-6 start is their worst since the 1996 season. As we've all heard over the past few days, no team has ever started so poorly and gone on to win the World Series. The 1985 Cardinals started 0-4 and went to the World Series, losing in 7 games. That's the closest comparison we have to what the Red Sox hope to accomplish this year after a frustrating slow start.
Despite what you may hear around Boston these days, all is not lost. Not yet anyway. On paper this is still the same team we gushed over all off-season. The line up is loaded with talent and will inevitably start to score more runs. The meager 2.6 runs per game they have managed so far is a far cry from what they are capable of. As the weather starts to heat up this summer, so will their bats. Say what you want about the question marks at the end of the pitching rotation, but this staff is not nearly as bad as their league worst 8.33 ERA would suggest. They will get better as well.
The most obvious defense to be made is that we're dealing with an extremely small sample size. Every team, even the elite teams, go through losing streaks during the grueling 162 game season. This streak is blown out of proportion due to the fact that it happens to be the first six games of the season. If this happened in July we wouldn't be thrilled, but we wouldn't be panicking either. Last year the San Fransisco Giants had a 7 game losing streak in the middle of the season, yet they went on to win the World Series. The 2004 and 2007 Red Sox teams both had multiple losing streaks that compare to this one. They just didn't start off the season on those losing streaks. It's not uncommon for winning teams to go into a funk during stretches of a long season. As Adrian Gonzalez pointed out, we'll all forget about this 2 weeks from now.
There are several factors that have contributed to the early season woes. While some of them do pose a concern, there are others that we can likely dismiss as typical early season struggles that the players will eventually work their way out of. Some players, such as Jon Lester, have historically been slow starters. The first few starts of the season are always rough before he turns things around. If you discount April statistics then Lester is the most dominant pitcher in the game. Last year's miserable April likely cost him the Cy Young award, as his stats from May onward were comparable with eventual winner Felix Hernandez, but Lester also had more wins. Give him a few more starts to get going and he'll turn things around. By the end of the season he'll still rate as one of the league's top starters. Many were disappointed by the debut season of John Lackey last year, but much of that is due to the fact that he's another historically slow starter. He was much better in the second half of the season last year. It wasn't long ago that he was considered an elite starter and the top free agent prize on the market. Let's not give up on him after one bad start. Clay Buccholz may not match last season's 2.33 ERA, but a player that only gave up 9 home runs all of last season isn't likely to give up 4 in one game again. Then there is Josh Beckett, who despite his struggles last year, has enough of a track record for us to believe he can still be an elite pitcher as long as he's healthy. The pattern of his career is that he alternates poor seasons with great seasons. This being an odd year, expect him to bounce back.
While most of the team's struggles have been with the pitching, the hitting hasn't been nearly as good as it can be. David Ortiz is a notorious slow starter. While it was nice to see him hit two home runs early in the season, he's not exactly off to a blistering start. Expect that .227 average and .292 OBP to climb as the season progresses. Kevin Youkilis has struggled early, but I think it's safe to say he'll hit better than his current .105 and drive in a few more runs. Right now Adrian Gonzalez is the only one hitting even close to as well as we expected, so when the rest of the team catches up to him then this lineup will really start to click. There are some new pieces trying to fit in on this team and you also need to consider that nearly half of their lineup is attempting to come back from season ending injuries suffered last year. A slow start for them should have been expected.
The mentality throughout Red Sox Nation seems to be that the sky is falling. Relax people! Take a deep breath, sit back and realize that it's only 6 games. All of which were on the road. Perhaps a home stand this weekend against the rival Yankees will spark some energy into this team. Something has to, and soon. Just remember, there are still 156 more games to go. No team has ever won a World Series after this slow of a start? So let's make history! We've done it before, back in 2004, when they said no team has ever come back to win a series after being down 3 games to none. Yet we did it. Unprecedented doesn't mean impossible. Don't lose hope yet.
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