We've seen many fantastic performances this season, but unlike most years, there doesn't appear to be an undisputed pick for the league's alpha dog. Most years the choice for MVP is clear, as was the case the past two years when LeBron James had two of the most dominant seasons in league history (only Jordan has had a better single season PER than what LeBron had in each of those seasons). While LeBron may still be the best player in the league, his move to Miami weakened his case for a third straight MVP award because he now has to share the ball with two other All-Stars, which has taken a hit on his usage rate and other counting stats. Add to that the fact that Miami has underachieved in the eyes of many the pegged them as an immediate dynasty as well as the fact that you can make the case that Dwyane Wade is the most valuable player on that team because of his leadership and because he's better in crunch time. LeBron is still on the list, certainly in my top 5, but he's no longer a clear choice for number 1.
So then who is? Well, that may depend on your definition of Most Valuable Player. There are several ways to look at it, and the answer may vary depending on the definition.
- Best statistics: LeBron James
- Most irreplaceable: Dwight Howard
- Best clutch scorer: Dirk Nowitski
- Best player on best team: Manu Ginobili
- Player you would most want to win a game right now: Kobe Bryant
We know who the players are that deserve consideration, but let's eliminate those that made the list, but just miss the cut for being considered the top choice. We'll eliminate LeBron and Wade due to the fact that they'll likely steal votes from each other just as they have taken the ball out of each other's hands all season. Plus the chemistry issues early on that led to a slightly disappointing season count against both of them. Kobe Bryant is having another strong season, leading a second half charge for the Lakers to put them back at the top of the list of contenders heading into the post-season. However, his numbers have dipped a bit this year, mostly due to his minutes dropping down to just over 33 per game, his lowest since 1998. Sorry, but you can't be considered most valuable if you're on the court that much less than the rest of the contenders. Kevin Durant leads the league in scoring and gets credit for doing so despite that Russell Westbrook's breakout season has taken away from Durant's usage rate. Westbrook actually touches the ball more, but Durant is so efficient that he finds ways to score anyway, yet it's just enough to drop him off the list. Dirk showed how valuable he is when the Mavs went 2-8 without him early this season, but the missed time does as much to hurt his case as it does to help it.
So that leaves us with two candidates to debate between at the top of the list: Derrick Rose and Dwight Howard.
The case for Rose:
24.9 PPG, 4.1 REB, 7.9 AST, .441 FG%, .859 FT%, 1.1 STL, .6 BLK, 23.57 PER, 18.3 EWA
Rose is an exciting young player enjoying the best season of his career while leading the surprising Bulls to the top seed in the East. He's a point guard with more of a scorers mentality, but still capable of getting his teammates involved. He has added a new dimension to his game this year by making 1.6 three pointers per game at a rate of .322%, which has easily surpassed his previous career highs. He also got to the free throw line nearly twice as often as his career average, while increasing his percentage from the charity stripe. This has made him an even more effective scorer, especially in crunch time, where he trails only Kobe Bryant in scoring during crunch time (according to 82games.com). Rose is a warrior that shows he wants to win every night, and it shows. He's in high gear at all times on every play. He's completely bought into the identity of the team and become their leader. He's carried the team through stretches where they were without key starters like Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah due to injuries. Watching him play you can only marvel at the array of highlight worthy cross over dribbles and drives to the hoop. Despite his accomplishments, he remains humble, with his desire to win overshadowing any personal achievements. That may be his most impressive attribute of all.
The case against Rose:
Rose is clearly the best player on his team, but you can make a case that he's not the main reason that they are winning. Chicago's jump to the top of the Eastern Conference is mainly due to their top ranked defense, masterminded by new coach Tom Thibodeau, who deserves strong consideration for coach of the year. Chicago ranks only 13th in offensive efficiency, but their defense is the strongest in the league, leading in defensive efficiency and opponent field goal percentage. Where this hurts Rose most is that he may be one of the weakest defenders on his team. There's no doubt that Rose has bought into the team concept on defense and plays equally hard on both ends of the court, but despite his athletic skills he's just not a strong defender. If defense is a big reason that the Bulls are winning and Rose isn't one of the main contributors on that end then he can't be given that much credit for the team's improvement. Chicago is also one of the deepest teams in the league, with their second unit playing nearly as efficiently as the first. Because of this, the Bulls are surprisingly only marginally better when he is not on the court, according to his plus/minus statistics. The Bulls are +7.6 points per game better than their opponents this year with Rose on the court, but still +5.4 better with Rose on the bench. That's not even the best differential on his own team.
The case for Howard:
23.1 PPG, 14.1 REB, 1.3 AST, .596 FG%, .592 FT%, 1.3 STL, 2.4 BLK, 26.18 PER, 22.3 EWA
D12 is the most dominant big man in the game. He is a beast at both ends of the court, but defense is where he really shines. He'll likely win the award again for Defensive Player of the Year, and it's not even close. He's 2nd in the league in rebounds and 3rd in blocks. When he's not swatting shot attempts he's at least getting in the way, forcing opponents to alter the angle of their shots and resulting in lower field goal percentages for opponents. Amazingly, Orlando is 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency despite that fact that the team does not have a single rotation player that is considered even above average as a defender. That's essentially the opposite of Rose, who's team is great defensively despite his defensive weakness. Howard is second in the league in PER and EWA, trailing only LeBron James in both categories and far ahead of Rose in both. He may not be as impactful on the offensive end as Rose is, but he has still taken a big step up with his offensive game this year. The work he did over the summer training with Hall of Famer Hakeem Olijuwan clearly shows in the development we've seen with his post work. He doesn't trail Rose by much in terms of points per game (still top 10 in the league), despite a vast differential in usage rate, and scores much more efficiently, as he is second in the league in FG%. Unlike Rose with the Bulls, the Magic are significantly worse when Howard is not on the floor. They outscore their opponents by +10.5 points per game with Howard, while being slightly outscored (-.3) without him. That differential of over 10 in plus/minus is far better than Rose's +2.3 differential. Plus, while Rose deserves a lot of credit for carrying his team while they were without injured players like Boozer and Noah, it should be noted that Howard has played the entire season without those players, or any players of that caliber. Aside from Rose, any of the Bulls top 3 players (Boozer, Noah, Deng) would easily be the second best player on the Magic after Howard. So the argument that Rose performed at a high level even without the help of his injured teammates doesn't hold much water against the case for Howard, who is surrounded by underachievers.
The case against Howard
As dominant as Howard can be, he's not without his flaws. Some question his mental toughness, as he sometimes appears to coast through games rather than play at the high level he's capable of at all times. Some games he doesn't need to play at that level in order for his team to win, but as good as he has been, it seems he could be better. He's yet to give us a dominant season like ones that we've seen in the past from other dominant big men like Shaq, Hakeem, Wilt or Russell, despite that he has all the physical tools to do it. There is also some speculation that Howard cares more about stats and highlights then he does about winning. I'm not convinced that's true, but I also don't think he has the killer instinct to win that a player like Kobe or even Rose has. He likes to use his shot blocking skills to make highlights by swatting the ball into the third row of the stands, but his team would benefit more if he instead swatted the ball in their direction, allowing them to push the ball on a fast break and score in transition. He also shows mental lapses in games where he commits dumb fouls or picks up an unnecessary technical foul. Howard leads the league in technical fouls and has already been suspend twice this season for it. Another case that the anti-Howard side will make is that he tends to disappear in crunch time. His team is often afraid to feed him the ball at the end of close games because of his poor free throw shooting. While it's true that the "hack-a-Howard" method can be effective, statistically teams are actually doing the Magic a favor when they foul Howard away from the basket. He's a terrible shooter, but keep in mind that he still makes nearly 60% of his free throws. That means when he's fouled and sent to the line he's likely to make more than 1 of them on average. Scoring over 1 point per possession is actually better than the Magic's typical scoring rate when shooters other than Howard attempt a field goal. Nonetheless, his team shies away from him in crunch time, which weakens his MVP case.
So the winner is?
Rose will likely win the award because he makes for a better story. The young breakout player that leads a surprising team to the top of the conference, turning them from first round fodder to championship contenders. As we've discussed, this change can't all be credited to Rose, but he is the best player on the best team in the East. Howard may be having a better season, but thanks to his lackluster supporting cast his team will have to settle for the 4 seed in the East and is not considered a strong contender. That weakens his case and will probably be enough to push Rose over the edge. I believe that it is actually Howard that has been the more valuable player this year, but I'm picking Rose to get the majority of the votes and win the award.
No comments:
Post a Comment