Patriots Draft Review

In Bill We Trust.

That's the slogan Patriots fans have stood by for over a decade in support of a coach that has delivered 3 Super Bowls and a long list of division titles.  He is widely considered to be the best coach in the league, and rightly so. Yet even the best coaches can have bad days.

The NFL draft is dissected, analyzed and scrutinized from all angles.  In some cases teams can make brilliant picks, while in others they can make mistakes that set the team back.  Bill Belichick and the Patriots organization have a successful track record in the draft, strong enough to earn them the benefit of the doubt.  Yet after this year's draft it's hard to see how they can consider it a success.

To be clear, no NFL coach nails the draft all the time, and there are certainly teams that did far worse than the Patriots in this draft.  We should also note that there have been times in the past where Belichick's choices have been questioned but worked out far better than most anticipated (Devon McCourty last year), as well as choices that were widely praised that later proved to be a bust (Laurence Maroney in 2006).  So it's still too early to truly judge this draft based on the players that were taken.  On the other hand, it's not too early to question the strategy of targeting certain needs.

The Patriots entered this draft with multiple picks in the first three rounds.  Their top needs included adding depth at the offensive line, running back, defensive end and outside linebacker.  Those two defensive positions in particular stand out as obvious holes in desperate need of an infusion of early round talent.  Last year the Patriots were the worst team in the league on 3rd down due to having virtually no pass rush.  Luckily, this draft was deep with numerous quality pass rushers at the DE and OLB positions.  With plenty of early round picks at their disposal it seemed like a no-brainer that the Patriots would be able to fill those holes with difference makers that could pay immediate dividends.  Or so we thought.

The Patriots surprised a lot of people with their first pick, which was the 17th overall pick, acquired from Oakland in the Richard Seymour trade two years ago.  They took offensive tackle Nate Solder.  A solid pick, considering there are holes to fill on the offensive line with the uncertainty of Logan Mankins future with the team and Matt Light possibly departing as a free agent.  Help on the offensive line was one of the team's top priorities, and the position didn't have quite as much depth as DE did.  While many would have preferred the team to take an elite pass rusher like Cameron Jordon in this spot, you can't argue with the logic of securing an OT instead knowing that other quality DEs would be available for their next pick.  The only concern with this pick is that you can argue that Solder wasn't the highest rated player available at his position.  Other tackles, such as Anthony Costonzo, were rated higher by most scouts, but perhaps Belichick felt Solder was a better fit for this team.  Fair enough.

But there was still the pass rush to worry about.  With the 28th and 33rd overall picks coming up, there were still chances to fill that hole, but when the time came to pull the trigger, the Patriots once again passed.  The 28th pick was traded to the Saints (who moved up to take RB Mark Ingram, another potential Pats target) in exchange for a late 2nd rounder (56th overall) and a 2012 1st round pick (which likely will be near the end of the round).  On a value scale it appears the Patriots got good value with the trade, but when DEs like Mo Wilkerson and Cameron Hayward came off the board soon after, it was a big let down.

The end of the first day of the draft was a little disappointing, but with plenty of ammo left they were sure to make up for it on day 2.  After all, they had the first pick in the 2nd round (obtained from Carolina).  The hope for most Pats fans was that they would use this pick on the best remaining pass rushers - Jabaal Sheard or Brooks Reed.  Instead, the Patriots shocked us again by taking corner back Ras-I Dowling.  Nothing against Dowling, who is a tall, physical corner that projects to be very good, but after using a first round pick on McCourty last year it didn't seem like this was a position we needed to use an early round pick on.  Having two CBs of their caliber teaming in the secondary is great, but it doesn't matter how good your secondary is if you can't put pressure on the QB.  Receivers will get open eventually if the QB has enough time to throw.  Before the Patriots would have a chance to pick again, all the top pass rushers had already been taken.  The team missed out on a golden opportunity to fix their biggest issue and now would have to hope that they can strike gold with a sleeper prospect later in the draft.  Certainly not impossible, but the odds are much worse than they would be if we used an earlier pick on the position.

The rest of the draft had a few picks that were great values, but overall it remained a let down.  RB Shane Vereen (56th overall pick) is considered by some to be the best RB in the draft.  He's a strong runner, good in pass protection and also a capable receiver out of the backfield.  Last year teams learned to key in on if the Pats would run or pass based on which RB lined up in the backfield, but Vereen is a solid option for run or pass plays, which will help keep defenses guessing.  We did need more depth at the position, so that's a solid pick considering we might as well have given up on finding a pass rusher at this point.  However, the decision to take another RB with the 73rd pick was puzzling.  Stevan Ridley is a powerful runner that is much different from what Vereen gives them, so they compliment each other well.  The 3rd round seemed a little too high for him though, so they must really have wanted him given they did not end up with a 4th round pick.  With Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead locks to retain their featured roles, the addition of two rookie RBs likely means Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk will be gone.

In between those two picks the Patriots traded away the 60th overall pick for the 73rd and 138th overall picks.  Belichick likes to trade picks around, but this was not good value.  Given that we had plenty of picks already it would have made more sense to draft quality over quantity, but apparently there was nobody on the board in that spot they really wanted.

Perhaps the most interesting pick of the draft was their 3rd round selection of QB Ryan Mallett.  Many consider him to be one of the best QB's in this draft class, so it was a surprise that he fell this far.  Several teams passed on him due to some questionable off-field issues as well as attitude issues, which would make him a poor fit on many teams, but not New England.  With a no nonsense coach and several quality veteran players that provide a positive locker room influence, the Patriots felt they could trust Mallett to be on his best behavior (he really has no choice on this team) and the value he provides was just too good to pass up, despite that it's not a position of need.  Brady is 34 years old and won't be around forever.  Having a kid with Mallet's talents sit around and learn from him for a few years isn't the worst idea in the world.  The plan worked wonders for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, and he's now an All-Pro Super Bowl winning star.  The team thinks letting Mallet study Brady up close could have similar results.  If nothing else, if he develops into a quality player then either Mallet or current backup Brian Hoyer become valuable trade assets that could net them much more than a late 3rd round pick.

Never shy about making trades, Belichick also sent the 92nd and 125th overall picks to Oakland for a 2012 2nd round pick.  Great value with that trade.  The Pats will once again have multiple picks in the first two rounds next year.

Without a 4th round pick, the Pats had to wait all the way until pick 138 to select again, beefing up their OL again by taking Marcus Cannon.  This could end up being a great pick, as Cannon rates pretty high based on talent, but he slipped in the draft after being diagnosed with non-Hodgkins lymphoma, making him a risk.  He's expected to recover, but it's still a high risk/high reward pick.  I say it's worth it this late in the draft.  It sure worked for the Red Sox with Jon Lester, who has recovered successfully from the same disease.

Also in the 5th round, the Pats selected TE Lee Smith.  Odd to see them take another TE after using early round picks to take two of them last year, but with Alge Crumpler getting older and in the last year of his contract it doesn't hurt to add some more depth to the position.  Smith is more of a blocking TE, as opposed to the receiving threats they drafted last year.

In round 6 the Patriots finally address the DE position by taking Markell Carter.  I'm not sure what they see in him, but he doesn't rate very high according to anything I've read about him.  Maybe he will be the diamond in the rough the team needs, but most likely he won't even make the active roster.  He's a developmental prospect that projects as more of an OLB in a 3-4 system. He could perhaps pay off sometime down the line, but it's unlikely he contributes right away.

They finish up in the 7th round taking defensive back Malcolm Williams, who is also a long shot to make the team.

While the Patriots did manage to fill several holes and got good value in some other areas, they failed miserably at filling their biggest need of a pass rusher, despite that they had several chances to use a pick to take a quality DE that fit their needs.  Granted Belichick knows what he's doing far better than any of the experts that analyze the draft (yes, he even knows more than me, can you believe it?).  So we have to trust that he made the right moves and took the players that really are the best fit for the team.  He's earned that trust.  Yet I still feel uneasy about the success of this draft and can't help but feel that even with progress of players already on the roster, the pass rush will once again be the Achilles Heel of this team.  If so, then you might as well sign us up for another early playoff exit this year.  As Charles Barkley would say, I may be wrong, but I doubt it.   I hope I'm wrong though.