The final 8 teams are set to square off for the Conference Semifinals in what has so far proved to be a very exciting postseason. Round 1 provided us with plenty of drama, exciting finishes and even a historical upset.
Let's see how the remaining teams match up against each other in this round.
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
Boston won 3 out of the 4 regular season meetings, but Miami won the most recent game in convincing fashion and have home court advantage in this series. That loss by the Celtics came during a month long stretch where the team was in a funk and playing no better than a .500 team. They have since recaptured the intensity that makes them a championship caliber team, so we can expect them to play much better than in their last meeting. On the other hand, two of those Celtics victories came early in the season when the Heat were still struggling to find their way as a team. So what does the regular season tell us? Not much I'm afraid, except that these are two elite teams that are fairly evenly matched, which should make for a great series.
One of the best match-ups in this series will be LeBron James against Paul Pierce. The two have gone against each other many times and Pierce has lived up to the challenge by playing him exceptionally well. Most of their history goes back to when James was in Cleveland though. Now that he has two All-Stars around him it will make them much harder to guard.
One of the main reasons for the mid-season trade that cost them Kendrick Perkins was to add depth at the wing with a playoff series against the Heat in mind. Jeff Green was brought in to help guard wing players like James and Wade when the starters need a rest. He has been a bit of a disappointment thus far. This has to be the series where he breaks out and shows us something in order to validate that trade.
With the Big Three on each team essentially cancelling each other out, Rajon Rondo figures to be the x-factor in this series. He was quiet in their last meeting, but came back to life against the Knicks in the last round. He needs to play at that elite level for the Celtics to win this series. When he's playing well he can't be stopped and should be able to pick apart Mike Bibby.
Boston needs to steal one of the first two games in Miami to take away home court advantage in order to have a chance in this series. Both teams know they are capable of beating the other, but the Heat have been unable to win in Boston so far. I don't see the Heat losing a Game 7 at home, which means in order for the C's to win they need to win one of those first two games. So...
Celtics in 6 games
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis shocked the world by becoming only the second #8 seed in history to win a best of 7 series. They proved they are better than your typical 8 seed, but the Cinderella story ends here. As well as the Grizzlies have played lately, OKC has been even better. Unlike the Spurs, the Thunder have the size to contend with the Grizzlies' front court thanks to the mid-season trade that brought them Kendrick Perkins. Memphis won 3 out of the 4 games in the regular season, but that was in part due to Zach Randolph abusing the undersized Jeff Green. The Perkins trade gives them an enforcer in the middle and also allows them to start Serge Ibaka, who has been outstanding since joining the starting lineup, especially on the defensive end. San Antonio didn't have enough size aside from an aging Tim Duncan to contend with both Randolph and Gasol, but the Thunder do, which takes away the biggest advantage Memphis had that got them to where they are now.
Memphis also can't match OKC in terms of star power. They have a lot of quality players, but nobody on the level of All-Stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. They have lockdown defender Tony Allen to help slow down Durant, but then Westbrook is capable of taking over. There are just too many weapons for Memphis to handle.
I expect this to be a hard fought series with several close games. Memphis should be able to hang around considering how well they play at home, but the Thunder will outlast them in the end.
Thunder in 7 games
Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta Hawks
These teams faced each other three times in the regular season, all of which came within a span of three weeks. While Atlanta managed to win a narrow victory in the first game at home, the Bulls won in convincing fashion in the other two games. Considering Chicago has home court advantage in this series, the regular season provides us with little reason to believe Atlanta has much of a chance in this series.
Atlanta's primary goal has to be trying to slow down Derek Rose, but that task became an even bigger challenge after the loss of hard-nosed defender Kirk Hinrich. A hamstring injury could keep Hinrich out for the entire series.
The Hawks have an athletic front court of Josh Smith and Al Horford that should match up well against the Bulls. Horford, who won a NCAA championship in Florida with Joakim Noah, loves to match up against his former college teammate. Expect the two of them to take their games to another level when they match up against each other in this series. Meanwhile, Smith will have the challenge of containing Carlos Boozer, who has a size advantage over him. Boozer has struggled in the postseason so far, and Smith's athleticism helps make up for the size difference, which is why he's still among the league's best shot blockers.
Part of what carried the Hawks past Orlando in the first round was the hot shooting of Jamal Crawford. His scorching outside shot was deadly against the Magic, but he'll find it much harder to get going against the league's top defense. Atlanta will find it hard to score in this series. For them to have a chance they need their top scorer, Joe Johnson to step up and take over. He's been wildly inconsistent in the playoffs (not just this year, but in his career). It's time for JJ to live up to that outrageous contract he signed last summer.
A ferocious defense combined with a determined Derek Rose will likely prove to be too much for the overmatched Hawks. Kudos to them for making it to the Conference Semifinals again, but as has been the case over the past few years, their ride ends here.
Bulls in 5
LA Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks
If we learned anything from the first round of the playoffs it's that the Lakers may have more questions surrounding their team than we thought, while the Mavs may be a better team than many are giving them credit for. Despite being the #3 seed in a very competitive West, not much was expected of the Mavs this postseason, with some even expecting them to be upset in the first round (guilty!). They proved their doubters wrong before, but now a much more difficult task awaits as they take on the defending champs.
As successful as these two teams have been over the past decade, amazingly we have yet to see a playoff match-up between Kobe's Lakers and Dirk's Mavs. The teams finished with identical records, with the Lakers winning the tie breaker due to a blowout victory in their third meeting near the end of the season. The loss came during a troublesome stretch for the Mavs where they stumbled through a 4 game losing streak. That stretch, which cost them home court advantage in this series, would seem like an even bigger issue had the Lakers not gone through their own losing streak near the end of the regular season, in addition to struggling at times in round 1 against an undermanned Hornets team that they were expected to coast by.
One of the Laker's biggest weaknesses is containing quick guards, which is why Chris Paul was able to dominate at times in the previous series. That won't be nearly as much of a problem for them in this series. While Jason Kidd looked rejuvenated against the Blazers, the aging super star has still lost a step (or two).
The match-up to watch in this series is Dirk against Pau Gasol. Both can be unstoppable at times on offense, but neither is known as a defensive stopper. Plenty of points should be scored from that match-up. Gasol struggled through the first round (it's been pointed out repeatedly that little brother Marc is having a far better postseason for the Grizzlies), but perhaps this series will get him going.
The difference maker, to no one's surprise, is Kobe Bryant. The Mavs have nobody to stop him, so as long as he's healthy he should dominate in this series. He had an injury scare in the last series, but will play through it regardless of how much pain he's in. A bigger issue for the Lakers would be if his supporting cast continues to struggle, in which case Kobe has a history of trying to do too much on his own. He's capable of winning games on his own, but also capable of losing them on his own when he goes into that selfish mode. If the Mavs struggle to contain him it will be interesting to see if they switch up the defensive assignments on him. Shawn Marion is capable of defending just about any position, and while it's rare to see him covering a guard, he may be their best chance of slowing down Kobe.
Not many are going to give Dallas a chance in this series, but I think it ends up being closer than we expect. I still expect the Lakers to advance, but they will have to battle to do it.
Lakers in 7
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