The final four teams remaining clash for the rights to represent their conference in the Finals. Some familiar faces have already fallen, while some new blood has begun to climb towards the group of elite teams in the league.
Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat
This years MVP leads his team against a trio of super stars that includes the man who won the previous two MVP awards. Chicago will try to match up against the star power of the Heat with their superior depth.
Chicago swept the regular season series against the Heat, but the victories were by a total of only 8 points in the three games, and Lebron James missed the first meeting due to an injury. So all we can really take from those meetings is that these teams are fairly evenly matched. Rose had the best year of any player in the league, but James and Wade were right behind him, while Chris Bosh is easily the next best player in the series at a notch below their level.
Miami has struggled in the past against Chicago's defense. Not only in their three regular season meetings, but Miami has had well documented struggles against Boston, whose defense was orchestrated by the new Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau. While Miami finally cleared the hurdle of the Celtics, they did so against a banged up unit that was far from it's best. Yet Miami still only averaged 95 points per game in the series, only once breaking the 100 point barrier, so their victory isn't an indication that they've solved the complicated defensive schemes. The defensive strategy of loading up on the strong side to keep LeBron and Wade out of the lane and force them into taking contested jumpshots backfired only because both stars were able to hit those long jumpers at an unsustainable rate. The Bulls were the top defensive squad in the league and come into this series much healthier than Boston was. This will prove to be a much more difficult task for Miami.
A cause for concern for Chicago is one carried over from their previous series, where Carlos Boozer struggled with a painful turf toe injury. He finished the final game against Atlanta strong, but he needs to play consistently well in this series to help Chicago advance. He is bigger and stronger than Bosh, so if he's healthy he should be able to dominate their match-up in the paint and on the boards. He may have trouble roaming out to contest Bosh's mid-range shot, but he has to prevent him from getting easy shots inside while helping Noah keep the Heat off the glass.
It will be interesting to see who Miami has guarding Rose in this series. Regular starter Mike Bibby will most certainly get toasted by Rose on every trip. He will need a lot of help from his teammates when he's in the game. They could use Wade to check Rose at times while letting Bibby cover the offensively deficient Ronnie Brewer, but would they really want Wade using so much energy chasing the speedy Rose around all series? Probably not, at least not for long stretches. It may mean more minutes for Mario Chalmers, who at least has a better chance at keeping up with Rose than Bibby does.
The teams are an even match, with Chicago being a bit better on the defensive end, while also lacking the explosive firepower that the Heat have on offense with their three stars. Rose can only do so much on his own, and while he may end up being the best player in the series, he can't cancel out Miami Trice on his own. His teammates will have to step up to help, but with Miami's stars unlikely to spend much time on the bench this series it will lesson the impact of Chicago's superior 2nd unit.
Miami hasn't been this far in the postseason since 2006 when Wade teamed with Shaq to win the title, but that ring gives Wade more postseason experience than anyone in a Bulls uniform. LeBron's postseason failures are no secret, but at least he's been to the Finals before. This Bulls squad has never made it out of the first round as a team before, and Boozer is the only key player in their rotation that has. While the Bulls may be the better team, it's incredibly difficult for a young team to make the jump from being a first round exit to making the Finals. Experience matters in this league, and Miami has the edge there.
Miami in 6
Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder are coming off a draining 7 game series that included a total of 4 overtime periods, while Dallas cruised through a 4 game sweep that earned them over a week off before the start of this series. While the time off could make the Mavs rusty to open the series, the rust factor isn't as big an issue for a veteran team. The time to rest up will likely be more beneficial to the older veteran team.
Dirk Nowitzki is having one of the best postseaons of anyone this year, and that should not be expected to change in this series. The imposing front court of Perkins and Ibaka will keep Dirk out of the paint, but he can hit jump shots all day. Ibaka's athleticism makes him a shot blocking force in the post, but Dirk's flawless shot has such as high release point that Ibaka has no chance of stopping it.
Part of what helped keep Memphis alive for so long in the last series was the pressure brought on Kevin Durant by the hounding defense of Tony Allen. The Mavs don't have a defensive stopper of that caliber, but Shawn Marion is the long, athletic type that should be able to bother Durant. If he helps keep the ball out of Durant's hands then it may encourage Westbrook to continue his trend of taking more shots, which could be to the detriment of the team.
That's not to suggest that Westbrook should not look for his own shot at times though, as his matchup with an aging Jason Kidd appears to be a mismatch worth exposing. He has the speed to get around Kidd, so his gameplan should be to drive to the basket whenever possible to either coast for an easy layup or dish the ball to an open teammate when the defense collapses to try to help.
Dallas won 2 out of the 3 regular season meetings, with the road team winning each contest. This may bode well for OKC, who is without home court advantage in this series, but I would not expect that trend to continue for the entire series. It's just worth noting that each team knows they are capable of winning on the road against their opponent. Nonetheless, the experience of Dallas will likely carry them through to the Finals. It'd feel a bit hypocritical in picking OKC (no matter how much I'd like to) after having just stated about the Bulls that a young team will struggle to make the jump from the first round to the Finals. While I believe OKC has a better chance of doing that, despite it's youth, I think they may still be a year away from a Finals appearance.
Dallas in 7
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