After a disappointing loss to the rival Miami Heat, the Celtics season came to a premature end. As injuries piled up and fatigue took over the worn down bodies of the veterans, there just wasn't enough left in the tank to overcome the star studded Heat team. With their season over, the team now finds itself entering an off-season full of questions that cloud the future of the franchise.
GM Danny Ainge will have his hands full this off-season trying to determine which direction to go in - either to make one last run with the current core group of players or blow it up and re-build. His decision will likely be heavily impacted by the first domino to fall, coach Doc Rivers. For months there has been speculation that this would be the last season for Rivers in Boston, as he has been seriously considering taking a year off to spend more time with his family and have the chance to see his son play college ball at Duke next season. If Rivers were to step aside then his decision may impact the rest of the roster.
After last nights loss, Rivers indicated that he's "leaning heavily" towards returning. "I haven't made that decision. But I can tell you that I probably will," said Rivers in response to questions about his return. Is this really going to be his decision, or was it an emotional answer given in the aftermath of defeat.
"I don't believe this team is done," added Rivers, indicating that he still considers himself a part of the team as they attempt to come back stronger next season.
But are they done? Since this core was formed back in 2008, the Big Three have attempted to defy the effects of Father Time, but there continue to be signs of the grind of so many minutes over their careers taking it's toll. Paul Pierce, KG and Ray Allen will be 34, 35, and 36 years old respectively next season. While each is in phenomenal shape and avoided major injuries for the most part this season, it's difficult to expect that all three will make it through another grueling season unscathed or without further decline in production.
After the Big Three, there are questions about who will surround them. Rondo will only be 26, and as the franchise player to build around for the future, he appears to be a lock to be here. Jeff Green could also be a key piece of their future, but he has been a mild disappointment in his short run in Boston so far and will be a restricted free agent. Considering they gave away Kendrick Perkins to get him, it would be a big loss to give up on Green already, but he would have to accept a reasonable deal and a role off the bench in order to stay. Big Baby Davis has been a key part of their bench the last few years, but he will be an unrestricted free agent. While he has expressed interest in remaining in Boston, he made clear his desire for an increased role, preferably as a starter. If the rest of the core remains, that appears to be an unlikely proposition.
Then there are the O'Neal's. Jermaine has another year left on the mid-level exception deal that he signed prior to this season, while Shaq has a player option for another year. Given that each of them struggled with injuries all season it would not be a surprise if either of them decided to hang it up. Considering he wasn't even able to finish the season healthy, Shaq seems likely to have played his last game in the NBA. If they both leave it will leave a gaping hole at the center position, which will be difficult for the team to fill given the lack of available big men and the constraints of the salary cap (which will likely be even lower next year).
Speaking of a lower salary cap, that leads us to the biggest question mark of all this off-season - the collective bargaining agreement, which could potentially lead to a lockout if the two sides aren't able to agree before the start of next season. If the worst case scenario were to occur, with the season being lost due to a lockout, then this would almost certainly spell the end of an era for this Celtics team. Only Rondo, Pierce and Avery Bradley are currently under contract for 2012 and beyond.
Most likely we won't have to endure the loss of an entire season, but it's not unreasonable to expect that a lockout could force a shortened season. The last time the NBA had a lockout was in 1999, which led to a shortened 50 game season. That season followed the latest championship run for Michael Jordan's Bulls. The uncertainty of the lockout was a major factor in MJ's decision to retire and for Phil Jackson to take some time off. There may be some similarities with that Bulls team and this Celtics team, as a lockout could push Rivers to take a year off rather than have to deal with the stress of a lockout, while some of the aging veterans may see it as a sign to walk away and retire.
Then again, a lockout could work in their favor if the coach and their core players decide to stick together for one last title run. Hypothetically, if this lockout ends up anything like the last one, then we can expect a shorter season (perhaps 50 games, like last time), which plays right into the hands of this veteran group. The past several years the Celtics have raced out to a fast start only to stumble at the end of a grueling season. With a shortened schedule, the grind would not be as tough, saving them more energy for the playoffs. Through 50 games this past season the Celtics were the top team in the East, but as they struggled with injuries and fatigue down the stretch they slowly gave away the top seed and fell to third in the conference. In theory, a shorter season would leave less time to blow a lead in the standings once the team hits that mid-season wall. The longer off-season would also give the team more time to rest their tired legs and get ready for another season.
The changing landscape in the league, based on new policies and altered salary cap rules that will eventually be agreed upon in the new CBA, will have a big impact on the direction the franchise will go in. It all starts with Doc. If the uncertainty of a lockout and the draw of his family pulls him away from coaching for a year then the rest of the core may be less inclined to stick together for a final run. Depending on who would be brought in to replace Rivers, the team's playbook could be drastically altered. If a lockout shortens or removes training camp and pre-season games then it would make it very difficult for a team to adjust to a new coach. That may tempt players like KG and the O'Neals to walk away, triggering a need for Ainge to blow things up. Perhaps those players, who technically could still be under contract, would delay retirement long enough to be used as trade bait for teams desperate to cut salary (the team trading for a player that immediately retires after the trade would have that player's contract come off their books). Ray Allen could decline his player option in that scenario, or allow the team to use him as a valuable trade chip for a team that feels they are one veteran shooter away from a title (like the Bulls). This would of course likely take the team out of contention for next year, but with a few savvy decisions by Ainge, it could speed up the inevitable re-building period by getting a few assets in return for the departing veterans rather than watching them leave as free agents or retirement.
As it stands now, it appears that Doc and the core members of this team will stay together for one last title run. Despite the early exit this season, this group will surely be a contender again next season with the right collection of role players added around them. It seems that we've been saying every year since 2008 that this will be their final run, but they still manage to keep squeezing out another competitive year from this core. There is still enough fight left in this champion tested squad to make one last stand. Whether or not they will get that chance may be out of their hands, in which case it really will be the end of an era. If that's the case then it's been an incredible run. As a fan, I'll miss watching this group compete together as a real team, but they will have left us with no regrets after they are gone. This team gave us two Finals appearances, one Championship, several memorable playoff series and made a legendary franchise relevant again. Hopefully we haven't seen the end for this team yet, but if we have then it's been a great ride.
No comments:
Post a Comment