After an 82 game marathon, followed by three grueling rounds of postseason games, two teams are left standing in the end to square off on the biggest stage of the game - the NBA Finals.
This years Finals features a re-match from 2006, when the Miami Heat defeated the Dallas Mavericks in a controversial series. These two teams are much different now, with Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry being the only holdovers from that Mavs team. Meanwhile, the Heat have gone from a dynamic duo of Wade and Shaq to a trio of All-Stars by exchanging the Diesel for LeBron James and Chris Bosh. Despite the many differences these two franchises have gone through in the past 5 years, expect many comparisons to be made to their previous Finals match-up, as this Mavs franchise is still haunted by the title they let slip away.
Back in 2006, Dallas held a 2-0 lead to start the series, only to see Miami rally to win the next 4 games. While there is no excuse for losing 4 straight in the Finals, there were at least a couple of games in that stretch that will forever be questioned by Mavs fans due to the controversial officiating. Dwayne Wade cruised to a Finals MVP trophy that year thanks to a record setting amount of free throw attempts. Even un-biased basketball fans were puzzled by how one sided the calls seemed at times, so you can imagine how fans in Dallas must have felt. Let's just say that Bennette Salvatore better not get the assignment of officiating a game in Dallas for this series.
Enough about the past, let's get back to the present. These two current teams could not be any more different. The obvious distinction being that Dallas is a team with one super star surrounded by a few good role players, while Miami is a team with three super stars surrounded by... let's just say, a less than stellar supporting cast. Their differences may be even more extreme in how their respective stars carry themselves. Take for example the ending of the final game of the Mavs series against the Thunder, where instead of celebrating wildly on the court, Dirk snuck quietly back to the locker room. His post game comments made it clear that he knew from having been in this position before that the team hadn't won anything yet and he was already focused on the next series. The time for celebrating will have to wait until after their ultimate goal has been achieved. The Heat on the other hand are the opposite. They had a championship parade to celebrate before the season even started.
The Mavs have surpassed the expectations of even their most optimistic supporters already (ok, maybe not Mark Cuban's) and there may not be a more dominating offensive threat in this postseason than Dirk. So far no other team in the playoffs has had an answer for the 7 foot German's jump shot, and there does not seem to be an obvious stopper on the Miami roster. Trying to contain Dirk will be the top priority for the Heat, but it won't be easy.
The problem for Dallas is how they will adjust if Dirk has an off game. He has carried them through most games this season, but even the brightest stars in the game can hit a shooting slump at times. If Dirk has any trouble finding his stroke, do the Mavs have enough offensive firepower around him to pick up the slack? Perhaps Terry or Peja could get hot from deep, as they did earlier to close out the Lakers, but neither can create their own shot and rely heavily on being open because of the attention Dirk demands from the opposing defense. Shawn Marion has provided some vintage performances of late, leading the team offensively in a few of their victories, but he's no longer the All-Star caliber player he was in his prime in Phoenix. Jason Kidd is no longer an elite point guard, and while he has shown he still has some left in the tank and is capable of running the offense, he's not a scorer. In fact, he was one of the worst players in the league in terms of scoring on a per minute basis. While he can hit a wide open three now and then, he can't be counted on for much scoring (even with Mike Bibby guarding him). So the Mavs have some nice role players capable of chipping in, but it has to be Dirk that carries the load, particularly in crunch time.
The Heat on the other hand don't have that problem because they have multiple players that can carry the load. LeBron James and Dwayne Wade tend to take turns carrying it anyway, so if either of them has an off night then the other will just need to step up their game to pick up the slack. They also have the luxury of turning to Chris Bosh to carry the team for stretches as well.
Dallas doesn't have the depth of wing defenders to contain Miami's stars. If Marion guards LeBron then how do they stop Wade? DeShawn Stevenson did a serviceable job of it in the regular season, but he doesn't play heavy minutes despite being the starter. Once Jason Terry checks in, that's when Wade will start to go off, because Dallas doesn't have anyone else in their backcourt that can stay with him. The Mavs face the dilemma of whether or not to take away minutes from Terry and JJ Barrea in favor of Stevenson to sacrifice offense for defense. Those two are too important to the offense, especially when Dirk is resting on the bench. The Mavs lead all teams in the playoffs in offensive efficiency, with their numbers jumping dramatically when Terry or Barrea are in the game.
Dallas plays more zone defense than any team in the league, so expect them to use that approach a lot to mask some of their defensive deficiencies. This will make it more difficult for LeBron and Wade to find lanes to get to the basket and also allow their big men to double team in the paint, as they won't need to pay much attention to Joel Anthony when he's in the game. They will attempt to force LeBron and Wade to settle for jump shots, which they hope they can't possibly continue to hit at the scorching pace they've been on lately. A zone defense will put more emphasis on the importance of shooters like Bibby, Miller and Chalmers to step up and hit big shots when they get open, something that none of them have done with much consistency thus far.
The Mavericks will look to avenge the loss in their last Finals appearance, but Miami may be too much of a force to contend with. Most people have picked against Dallas since the postseason started and been proven wrong along the way, so it may be unwise to pick against them now. However, if any team has been hotter than Dallas lately it's Miami. They have yet to lose at home in the playoffs this year and they hold home court advantage in this series. Because of the 2-3-2 format of the Finals, Dallas almost has to steal one of the first two games in Miami to have a chance, because if they can't finish them off in Dallas then they will have to head back to win at least one more in Miami. Teams with home court advantage in the Finals are 20-6 since the league moved to the 2-3-2 format and have won 10 of the last 12 meetings. Dallas may be good enough to end the home winning streak for the Heat, but it's hard to see them winning more than once in Miami.
There is a lot on the line in this series for both teams. The Mavs have never won a title and are desperate to make up for their past failures, but for them the pressure falls primarily on Dirk. He may already be the best European player to ever come over to the NBA, but winning a title may put him in the conversation of being one of the best power forwards of all time and perhaps even put him in the top 25 overall. Without a ring though he may be destined to fall just short of that group, as it would be harder to put him ahead of other stars without rings such as Karl Malone and Charles Barkley. He needs to lead his team to a Championship to push himself above that level and this may be his last shot to do it.
As for the Heat, they have been under pressure to win a title since the moment LeBron decided to take his talents to South Beach. Anything less than a title will be perceived as failure. While the entire team has come under scrutiny all season, it's LeBron that finds himself cast under the brightest light. Winning a title will justify his decision to leave Cleveland. It will silence the naysayers and those that vilified him for his actions. Most importantly, it will alter how he will inevitably be viewed historically, as there are many that would refuse to believe he can be an all time great without having won a title. People may not agree with how he went about getting a ring, but if he gets one then years from now that will be all that matters. There are some that think that this may be the start of a dynasty, but they have to win one first. I think this is the year LeBron finally gets to that next level. So begins a new era in the NBA - for better or for worse.
Prediction: Heat in 6
No comments:
Post a Comment