Yo Adrian!

On the verge of the MLB Winter Meetings, the Boston Red Sox have been right in the middle of the rumor mill, per usual.  After months of speculation, the Sox have finally made their first big move of the off-season.

The Red Sox and San Diego Padres have agreed to a deal that will send slugging first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to Boston for prospects.  Boston has long coveted Gonzalez and has been rumored to be amongst the teams looking to trade for him as far back as the beginning of last season.  The three time All-Star finished 4th in the NL MVP voting last season  He is an elite player that has priced himself out of San Diego, so with his contract up after this season and little chance at retaining him, the Padres made the wise decision to get some quality prospects for him.

Boston will send their top prospect, pitcher Casey Kelly, as well as their number three prospect, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, and their number 6 prospect, outfielder Reymond Fuentes, to San Diego.  They are all quality prospects that could make an impact within the next couple of years at a much cheaper rate for the small market Padres.  

Given Boston's financial resources and farm system depth, it's a move they can afford to make.  Kelly could end up being a great pitcher, but he's a couple years away and the Sox have a lot of money tied to their rotation already, so at the moment there is no room for him anyway.  Lester, Beckett, Buchholz and Lackey are locked up for the next several years.  While it would be nice to envision a top prospect like Kelly sliding into that 5th spot next year once Dice-K's contract is up, the Sox have other young pitchers that could challenge for that role, such as Felix Doubront, or they could pursue another veteran in free agency.

Rizzo could develop into a quality slugger, considering he hit 20 Home Runs and knocked in 80 RBIs with a .815 OPS as a 21 year old in Double A Portland last year.  Even if he becomes an All-Star at some point down the road, it's hard to imagine him ever being that much better than what Gonzalez gives the team right now.  Since they play the same position, he became expendable.  

Fuentes is an exciting young speeder who stole 42 bases in Single A Greenville last season.  He could become a good player, but he's a long way off from being in the majors and the Sox already have a lot of quality outfield prospects that are ahead of him, such as Ryan Kalish.  Boston also intends to make a strong push to acquire one of the top free agent outfielders this year - Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth.  That would make him expendable as well.  I think the only one that is upset about losing Fuentes in this deal is my mom, after Fuentes became her favorite prospect after her trip to see the Sox and Spring Training last year.  She claims I ruined her day when I told her the news that Reymond was traded away.

These are all talented prospects with bright futures, but none of them are a sure fire super star like Gonzalez.  The Red Sox are widely considered to have one of the best farm systems in the game, but that speaks more to the depth of their system.  There are no Stephen Strasburgs, Jason Heywards or Buster Poseys in this system.  Anyone in this system is expendable for the right deal, and this is it.  

Now, back to Gonzalez.  The casual fan many not know much about him considering he played in relative obscurity for most of his career in San Diego, but he is one of the best first basemen in the game.  He's hit between 30-40 Home Runs in each of the past 4 seasons.  His career averages are a .284 batting average, .368 OBP, and .507 Slugging.  Those numbers compare favorably to the career numbers for Mark Teixeira, who the Sox lost out on two years ago to the Yankees.  They have put up very similar numbers for their career, with Gonzalez having the much better year last year.  You also have to factor in that Teixeira plays half his games in Yankee Stadium, one of the league's best hitter's parks.  Meanwhile, Gonzalez played at Petco Park in San Diego, which is easily the worst hitters park in the majors.  The fact that he was able to put up such impressive power numbers in that stadium is a testament to how great a hitter he is.  The Red Sox must be salivating over what kind of numbers he will put up in hitter friendly Fenway Park, where a short right field pole becomes so inviting for a power hitting lefty hitter like Gonzalez.

As impressive as he is with the bat, Gonzalez is just as good with a glove.  He's a two time Gold Glove award winner, and while it's no secret how little stock I have in that bogus award, Gonzalez is a deserving winner, with a career UZR rating of 6.2.  He's also a very durable player, having played at least 156 games in each year in San Diego when he became a full time player.  Given the injury woes the team has last season, someone that can avoid the DL will be a welcome addition.

The downside of the deal is that it likely means the end of the Adrian Beltre era in Boston.  Kevin Youkilis will shift over to third base, leaving no room for Beltre.  While it will be hard to see him go after the year he just had, when he was easily our best all around player, it's the right move.  As a free agent, Beltre will command a multi-year deal for a lot of money.  He's rumored to have been offered a 5 year $64 million deal from Oakland, and that number could rise if other teams get in on the bidding.  That's a lot to give to a player that has a history of having his best years in a contract year.  Beltre's best season was with the Dodgers in 2004 when he hit .334 with 48 home runs.  That break out year got him a big contract from Seattle, where he was a disappointment.  His best year in Seattle doesn't come close to an average year for Adrian Gonzalez.  Moving to Fenway was a boon for Beltre's offensive stats, but it's reasonable to assume that Gonzalez is in for a similar spike in production after escaping the cavernous confines of Petco Park.  As we'll soon see, Gonzalez is the better player, so if we could only have one then this is the guy we want.  The expected contract extension, which is being negotiated as part of the trade, may make him more expensive, but probably not by much considering he won't actually get to free agency, so no other teams can drive up the price like they can for Beltre.

This deal also lessens the blow of losing Victor Martinez.  Many in Boston were in an uproar after the Sox allowed V-Mart to walk away to Detroit.  You have to keep in mind though that Martinez will be 32 years old this season and is already a poor defensive catcher.  He's an All-Star because of the production that he gives you from a position that generally doesn't offer much offensive punch, but the problem is that he won't actually be a catcher for most of that contract.  With Gonzalez on board it takes away the option of playing him at first base, which means if we kept Martinez for 4 more years he would have been mostly a DH after this season, making less appearances behind the plate as each year progresses.  When you think of his numbers from the DH spot as opposed to the catcher position they suddenly don't look quite as impressive.  Not that they aren't still good numbers, they just aren't worthy of the money it would have taken to keep him.

Plus the Red Sox are far from being done.  There is still work to be done to re-stock the bullpen.  Supposedly they made an offer to Mariano Rivera (which would have likely resulted in trading Papelbon), but you have to wonder how sincere the offer was.  They had to know there was no chance of Mo coming to Boston, so the offer was meant more to raise the price for the Yankees (he agreed to a 2 year $30 million deal this week). 

There is also a likely probability that the Red Sox will acquire either Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth.  The Angels are their biggest competition, and the Yankees could always jump in if they fail to sign Cliff Lee (not because they need an outfielder, but just because they will feel obligated to spend money on a big name).  But it seems reasonable that they will have a shot at one of those two.  I'd prefer Crawford, who is younger and provides a better all around game, but Werth seems more likely.  He'll require less total dollars and years and also combines with Youkilis to give a nice right handed power hitting compliment to the lefty duo of Gonzalez and David Ortiz.

Here is what the Red Sox lineup could potentially look like after this deal, and assuming we include one of the free agent outfielders.

CF - Jacoby Ellsbury

2B - Dustin Pedroia

LF - Carl Crawford/Jayson Werth

1B - Adrian Gonzalez

3B - Kevin Youkilis

DH - David Ortiz

RF - JD Drew

C - Jarrod Salalamacchia

SS - Marco Scutaro

That lineup is even more impressive than the opening day lineup from last season, which included Beltre and Martinez.  There is still some work to be done to make it happen, but the first domino has fallen with the deal for Adrian Gonzalez.  It won't be long before Red Sox Nation gets a chance to see what Gonzalez can do, and when they do they will be glad they have him.

The Jeter Dilemma

Legend.  Icon.  Future Hall-of Famer.  Greedy?

Those terms can be used to describe Derek Jeter, but the New York Yankees have to hope that the last of those terms isn't how he'll be remembered in New York. 

The Yankees have their hands full this off-season, and it's not just because of their intent to lead the bidding war for Cliff Lee.  Getting him to sign his name on the dotted line isn't the problem.

The problem for the Yankees, surprisingly, is coming from their Captain. 

For the first time in a decade, Jeter is eligible for free agency.  While many overlooked the issue under the assumption that the Yankees would retain their star Shortstop, it apparently has become easier said than done.  The issue?  Money.  Of course.

The Yankees are notorious for throwing money around, to the point that you have to wonder if the Steinbrenners have a giant pool full of money that they swim in, like Scrooge McDuck.  They overpay free agents to take other bidders out of contention and their 2010 payroll was over $206 million, over $45 million more than the next highest team's payroll.  Alex Rodriguez on his own makes almost as much money as the entire Pittsburgh Pirates roster!  Suffice it to say, money is not an issue for the Yankees.

That being said, does a nearly limitless spending limit mean that they are obligated to make financial mistakes?  It's one thing to throw bundles of money at the best free agents available, but do they have to overpay their own players to stay as well?

The Yankees have put a very generous offer of 3 years for $45 million on the table.  While it is a drop from the $22 million he made last year, there aren't too many 36 year olds that would scoff at $15 million per year.  Unless your  name happens to be Derek Jeter.

Jeter is asking for an absurd 6 year deal worth $150 million.  He may even consider being talked down to a 4-5 year deal as long as the annual payment is around $20 per season.  Gee, how kind of him.

The last time Jeter was eligible to become a free agent he signed a massive 10 year $189 million deal with the Yankees.  While I wouldn't call that a reasonable deal, you can see the logic behind it.  At the time, Jeter was considered to be the 2nd best SS in the game, behind Alex Rodriguez, who had just signed a 10 year $252 Million deal with Texas.  That was 10 years ago.  Flash forward to present day and Jeter is no longer the 2nd best SS in the game.  Probably not even top 5. 

For a comparison, Hanley Rameriz is largely considered the best SS in the game, and he only made $7 million last year.  The Colorado Rockies are on the verge of a contract extension with Troy Tulowitzki that will average a similar annual salary to what the Yankees are offering Jeter.  Both of these elite Shortstops are much younger and likely to outproduce Jeter in each of the next few years, yet Jeter wants to be paid much more than them.  In what world does that make sense?!

The argument that Jeter and his agent are trying to make it that the Yankees are expected to overpay because he's Derek Jeter!  He's the team Captain, their leader, the heart and soul of the team.  He's won 5 World Series Championships, batting titles and Gold Gloves.  He expects to be paid based on past performance, not on what he brings to the table now and in the future.

Sorry Derek, that's not how it works, and the Yankees brass know it.  GM Brian Cashman is too smart for it.  That past performance was great, but it's also the reason he was paid $189 million over the past 10 years for his last contract!  What makes him think that he should get paid at the same rate when his production is not the same?  Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle and Joe DiMaggio all saw their salaries drop dramatically near the end of their careers.  Granted that was before the era of free agency when players had no leverage, but there is still a historical precedence for the Yankees not wanting to overpay a player no matter what kind of a legacy he has with the team.

Make no mistake, his production is in decline.  Last year Jeter batted a career low .270 (not counting his '95 season where he only played 15 games) and his .370 Slugging % is by far the lowest of his career.  He still scored runs and knocked in a respectable amount of runs for a lead off hitter, but that's more a function of the stacked Yankees lineup than of his own production.

What about his defense?  After all, he did win a Gold Glove award in 2010.  Please, the Gold Glove is the biggest joke of any award in baseball.  It has nothing to do with recognizing the best defensive player.  The award is annually given away to the most popular player at the position.  Often times a player's offensive production has more to do with who gets the award because the player is more well known.  Doesn't make much sense for an award that is supposed to be for the best defensive player at the position.  Jeter is actually one of the worst defensive Shortstops in the league.  He's always been overrated, hardly ever having a year where he was even above average.  Yet he's won the award five times.

Don't believe he's not an elite defender?  In 2010 his UZR rating was -4.7 (Ultimate Zone Rating measures the amount of batted balls a defender gets to that are hit into his area of the field compared to the average player).  Jeter gets a lot of credit because people remember the spectacular off balance throws they see on the highlights.  While those are great plays, they don't give an accurate picture of Jeter's defensive ability on a consistent basis.  Going by the old school way of looking at stats, Jeter looks good because he doesn't commit a lot of errors and has a high fielding percentage.  The voters that give him the award based on that are ignorant of the advanced data that is now available and clearly haven't seen him play much.  The reason Jeter doesn't commit many errors is because he doesn't get to nearly as many balls in play as other players.  You can't commit an error on a ball that you don't even get to.  Range has never been one of Jeter's strongest attributes, but as he gets older it is rapidly declining.

It's not uncommon for older players to lose range, which is especially troublesome for Shortstops.  Historically we have seen many Shortstops change positions as they get older to play at a spot where their declining range is less of a liability.  Cal Ripkin Jr. did it.  Alex Rodriguez is doing it.  Eventually Jeter will need to do it as well, whether he wants to or not.  This also needs to be factored in when trying to determine accurate value for Jeter's next contract, as a weak hitting corner infielder isn't worth as much as he would be as a Shortstop.  It's unlikely that any team that goes after Jeter, including the Yankees, will want to consider him as a Shortstop for the entire length of the contract.

According to FanGraphs.com, Jeter had a WAR (wins above replacement player) value of 2.5 last year.  Meaning if they took a replacement level player off the scrap heap and replaced Jeter with him then the 2010 Yankees would only have lost a couple of games in the standings.  In other words, Jeter does make them better, but they still would have made the playoffs as the Wild Card team without him. 

You can't blame Brian Cashman for the stance he's taking.  He put his offer on the table and essentially told Jeter that if he doesn't like it then he can go test his value on the open market.  He's confident that no other team will offer Jeter anywhere close to the amount they are offering, which means the contract they have on the table is paying for past performance.  They are offering to pay a lot more than the market value already, but Jeter's ego won't allow him to see what everyone else thinks is obvious.  He's not worth nearly as much as he thinks he is.  This will soon become painfully clear when other offers either fail to come close to the Yankees offer or fail to come in at all.

Just out of curiosity, let's look at other team's that may show some interest in Jeter to see if it would be worth their while to get in on the bidding.

Boston: They could at least hint at doing it just to stick it to the Yankees and drive up the price, but it's unlikely they would be serious about signing him.  They aren't desperate for a Shortstop and one of their top prospects, Jose Inglesias, is on the way. 

Baltimore: They have been having trouble filling empty seats for their games, so getting a high profile player like Jeter would help sell some more tickets.  Unfortunately the move wouldn't translate to many more wins.  Would Jeter even consider going to a team with no immediate chance at the playoffs?

LA Angels: They have some money to spend and could put him at SS or 3B, but they have bigger priorities in free agency, such as Beltre or Crawford.  They'd have to strike out on all of their top choices before considering Jeter.  They also aren't the type of team to spend money just because they have it.  If they can't get one of the big bats then they will likely wait until next year.

NY Mets: At least they know he can handle the New York market, and they'd love the chance to drive a knife in the back of their cross town rivals.  But unless they end up trading Jose Reyes then they are already set at SS and 3B.  Even if trading Reyes is an option then overpaying an aging veteran to replace him would not be an option.

LA Dodgers: Joe Torre is gone, but Jeter does have a good relationship with new skipper Don Mattingly.  But with the owners dealing with their divorce issues it doesn't seem likely that they can afford to hand out a bad contract.

San Francisco: The Giants should be able to use their recent World Series victory to draw enough fans to fill their ballpark, they don't need to overpay a big name to sell tickets.  They already have too much money tied to Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand to afford clogging their payroll with another overpaid veteran.

That's pretty much it for the teams that could afford to offer a big contract to Jeter.  Other teams are either small market teams that can't afford that kind of risk or teams that don't have a big need for a SS or 3B (or whatever other position they could find to stick Jeter in).

Like it or not, the Yankees are the best fit for Jeter.  Always have been.  No other team will offer him close to the money that he wants and no other team will be as reluctant to move him to another position (in part because the Yankees really don't have anywhere else to put him now, so they have to let him play SS at least a little longer due to a lack of options).  Jeter really has no leverage in this situation because there are no other teams that are eager to raise the price.  Any other team would laugh at him and hang up the phone if he demanded the kind of contract he wants from them, or even if he asked for the same amount the Yankees have already offered.  He's essentially trying to get the Yankees to bid against themselves and they aren't falling for it.

Derek Jeter needs to take a long look in the mirror and realize the harsh reality that he's not the super star he thinks he is anymore.  He's an aging veteran that is on the decline.  He will never be as beloved or valued in any other city as he is in New York.  No other team will treat him as well or pay him as much.  He may not want to admit it, but he needs the Yankees more than the Yankees need him.  Once he finally realizes that then he and the team will finally be able to agree upon a deal to keep in in New York where he belongs.

NFL Week 12 Review

Week 12 started out on Thanksgiving day with a trio of games to fill the afternoon.  After stuffing your face with a big turkey dinner, there's nothing better than making yourself comfortable on the couch for a full day of watching football.

There are several teams that have a lot to be thankful for this season, including the Patriots, Jets, Falcons and Eagles.  There are also some teams that will be thankful when this disappointing season finally comes to an end, such as the Vikings, Cowboys and Bengals.  Then there's the teams that should just be thankful that they are still allowed to be in the league, such as the entire NFC West division.

Here are some things that I'm thankful to have seen this week:

• The Patriots rallied from a sluggish start to blow out the Lions to open the Thanksgiving Day festivities.  Detroit actually led at halftime, but Brady & Co. came out on fire in the second half.
• Brady had an impressive 341 passing yards, 4 TDs and a perfect 158.3 QB Rating (why that odd number is the highest possible rating is a mystery to me).
• Rookie DT Ndamukong Suh is a beast, showing he is already on his way to becoming one of the top players at his position.  He recorded an early sack and had a couple of tackles that went for a loss.
• While he won't beat out Suh for Defensive Rookie of the Year honors, Patriots CB Devin McCourty has been impressive as well.  He had two Interceptions in this game, giving him 5 for the season.  He certainly still has times where he struggles in coverage, which is expected for young players, but he seems to keep getting better every week and is looking like a player that could reach an elite level in a couple of years.
• Wes Welker struggled initially after the Randy Moss trade, as defenses were able to focus more on stopping him and left him with less room to operate, but he's finally starting to break out again.  He had a team high 8 receptions for 90 yards and 2 TDs. 
• Deion Branch came up big as well with 113 yards and 2 TDs of his own.  One of his TDs came on a 79 yard bomb where he made several nice juke moves to avoid the helpless defender.  Given how much he had to slow down to make those moves, it's amazing that no other Lions defender was able to catch up to them to help out.
• The Saints kept their NFC South title hopes alive with a comeback victory in the final minutes in Dallas.  Drew Brees led a masterful 89 yard drive, connecting on two deep passes, followed by a 12 yard slant to Lance Moore for the game winning TD with under 2 minutes to go.
• Dallas let victory slip through their fingers, or rather through the fingers of Roy Williams.  They could have had the game wrapped up after Jon Kitna connected with Williams on a 47 yard pass that put them deep in Saints territory.  Even if they weren't able to run out the remaining three minutes off the clock, they could have gone up by two scores or at least kicked a FG to go up by 7.  Malcolm Jenkins knew that a simple tackle may not have been enough to avoid a loss, so after getting burned by Williams on the play he knew he had to make up for it.  Did he ever!  He somehow manage to knock the ball loose from behind and recover the fumble, which gave Brees and the offense one last chance to win.  Which of course they did, because it's Drew Brees.
• The Miles Austin end around for a 60 yard TD was a thing of beauty.  The fact that this one long run made him the Cowboys' leading rusher for the game is a bit ugly.
• Speaking of ugly, the Jets continue to win games despite poor play from their offense.  Mark Sanchez only had 166 passing yards, and it wasn't just because the Jets game planned to run all day.  Neither LT or Shonne Green reached 20 carries for the game and they combined for less than 120 yards.
• This game was won thanks to Brad Smith, who scored TDs on a 53 yard run and an 89 yard kick return, which he managed to outrun defenders despite losing a shoe on the play.
• Terrell Owens is having a great season, but he became another star WR to be stranded on Revis Island.  He had only 3 catches for 17 yards.  His partner in crime, OchoCinco, didn't help much either, with only 4 catches for 41 yards.
• The downward spiral continues for the Titans as they were shut out by the Texans.  The highlight of their day was that Randy Moss had his best day since joining the team (3 catches, 23 yards).  When that's the best you can say about them then you know it was a disaster.
• Chris Johnson was even more disappointing (7 carries, 5 yards).  The ineptitude of this offense has apparently sucked him down with the rest of the team.
• For all his faults and issues, Vince Young at least took relatively good care of the football and put up respectable numbers, even when he wasn't asked to throw much, as shown by the fact that he's 5th in the league in QB rating.  He's done for the year and his replacement is apparently the opposite of Vince - 3 interceptions and a QB rating of only 26.7.
• Arian Foster dominated the game once again (143 rushing, 75 receiving).
• Andre Johnson's day didn't end nearly as well as it started, as both he and Titan's CB Cortland Finnegan were ejected in the 4th quarter for fighting.  The two had been jawing back and forth all day, and AJ80 is on record saying before the game that he's sick of hearing Finnegan run his mouth.  The tension finally erupted, with Finnegan getting his helmet torn off before being thrown to the ground.  Both players managed to land a couple of punches and it remains to be seen if their actions could lead to further fines or suspensions.
• The Falcons pulled out a last second victory to remain the NFC's best team.  Roddy White was relatively contained by the Packers defense, but Michael Turner made up for it with a 110 yard 1 TD performance.
• Matt Ryan has only been beaten once at home in his 3 year career.  If Atlanta can remain the top seed and get home field advantage through the playoffs then you have to like their chances of reaching the Super Bowl.
• Aaron Rodgers' late game heroics to tie the game with under a minute to go were not enough after all since their defense could not stop the Falcons from driving into FG range at the end of the game.
• The winning streak is over for Buffalo, as they lost their 3rd OT game of the season.  Give them a lot of credit for hanging with the heavily favored Steelers, but good teams win these kind of games.
• Steve Johnson was the hero in last week's comeback victory against the Bengals, but he was the goat in this one.  A late 4th quarter red zone opportunity failed when a pass deflected off his hands and was picked off by Troy Polomalu.  Then in Overtime he dropped the would-be game winning TD pass when he had the defense burned and could not hang on to an easy catch.  Those were just 2 of his 5 drops in the game.
• In a bizarre post-game rant on Twitter, Johnson blamed God for the dropped passes.  Sure, why not?  Plenty of athletes praise God when they win, so why shouldn't He get the blame when they lose?  Or maybe... Steve just had a bad game.  Get over it!  He says the team will get over it, but he never will.
• Rashard Mendenhall's 151 rushing yards would be more impressive it it didn't take him 36 carries and an OT period to do it.
• Payton Hillis was an unstoppable force with 194 total yards and 3 TDs.  We knew the Carolina defense was bad, but wow.  This guy is good.
• Hillis is a prime example this week of the downfalls of being in multiple fantasy football leagues.  His monster game is the reason I won my match-up in one league, but also the reason I lost my match-up in another league. 
• The Panthers haven't gotten much out of their QBs this year, but they did get some help from a former QB.  Jake Delhomme threw 2 picks, one of which was returned for a TD.
• The Giants got back into the NFC East race with a much needed win.
• Fumble problems may be leading to a decrease in carries for Ahmand Bradshaw.  He had only 9 carries, compared to 14 for Brandon Jacobs.
• David Garrard always seems to struggle on the road.  Good thing they have Maurice Jones-Drew to carry the load, or else they may never have even had a lead that they could blow.
• The Vikings got a win in the debut for their new head coach Leslie Frazier.  After seeing the Cowboys and now the Vikings win the week after firing their coach, maybe other teams should consider making some changes.
• Adrian Peterson left the game early with an ankle injury.  It doesn't sound serious, so hopefully he won't miss additional time.  He had an MRI on Monday and they are awaiting results.
• Before the injury, Peterson eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark for the season.  It's the 4th straight year that he's topped that mark.  Only 2 other active RBs (Stephan Jackson, Thomas Jones) have more consecutive 1K yard seasons.
• Chad Henne returned to lead the Dolphins passed the Raiders.  He was helped by his running game.  The combination of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams looked lifeless the past few weeks, but finally broke out, combining for 180 yards.  A 45 yard TD run by Williams helped clinch the game.
• Oakland was once 2nd in the league in rushing, but continues to drop (down to 5th) after another unproductive week.  Darren McFadden and Michael Bush combined for only 3 yards!
• Dwayne Bowe continues his streak as an unstoppable receiver (13 catches, 170 yards, 3 TDs), despite that he has Matt Cassell throwing to him and that there are very little other receiving options around him.  The game plan to stop Bowe used to be just to wait for him to drop the ball.  Maybe defenses need to adjust that plan.
• See what happens when you let Jamaal Charles carry the ball 20+ times?  He goes off for 173 yards and a TD.  Keep giving him the ball.
• Given the lead they had for most of the game, they still managed to fit in another 20 carries for Thomas Jones.  Unfortunately, half of those carries went for 2 yards or less.  Other than goal line carries it's tough to figure why he even gets the ball until the 4th quarter, when they can use him to help eat up the clock if they have the lead. 
•  Seattle's top receiver Mike Williams missed this game with a foot injury, but Ben Obomanu filled in admirably with 5 catches for 159 yards and a TD.  If you haven't heard of him, don't worry.  I'm not sure Matt Hasselbeck had heard of him before this week either, as he only had 15 catches all season entering this game.
• Michael Vick finally threw his first Interception of the year, and it was a costly one given that they lost by only 5 points.  He still had another great game, passing for over 300 yards for only the 2nd time all season (Week 10, in which he also had 333 yards).
• His day would have been even better, not just for his stats, but for the team's chances to win as well, if DeSean Jackson hadn't dropped a sure TD pass.  He seemed to be bracing himself for impact and tried to drop to the ground to avoid getting hit in the head rather than focusing on holding on to the ball.  Can't really blame him considering he missed time this season due to a concussion from a vicious helmet to helmet hit, but that was a ball he needed to hang on to.
• Jay Cutler had a big game, with 4 TDs and no turnovers.  Who would have thought he would have had less turnovers and a better QB rating than Vick in this game?
• It probably helped that the Eagles were without their top two CBs for the game.  Asante Samuel was out this week and Ellis Hobbs is out for the season.  They just didn't have enough depth at the position to keep up with the speedy Bears receivers.
• Chicago is now on a 4 game winning streak that has put them a game ahead of the Packers for first place in the NFC North.
• Sam Bradford had the first 300 yard game of his career, as well as the first 3 TD game and first road victory.  Not too shabby for the rookie QB.  Granted it came against a miserable Broncos team, but Bradford's receiving options aren't exactly a group of Pro-Bowl caliber players.
• Kyle Orton did some damage of his own (347 yards, 3 TDs), most of which came in the 4th quarter during a furious comeback attempt.  His last chance drive was uneventful, including a sack followed by three straight incompletions which pretty much ended the game.  But hey, at least he continues to look good in the box scores.
• On the bright side, Orton took over the league lead for passing yards (3370).  I doubt you'll hear his name mentioned much in the MVP debate though.  Not just because his team is awful, but because you just can't give an MVP award to this guy.
• The Ravens managed to hold off the Bucs with some strong defensive play despite not forcing a turnover or recording a sack the entire game.  Pretty impressive to be able to hold a team to only 10 points (7 of which came at the end of the game) without the help of turnovers or sacks.
• Ray Rice had a useful day, with 132 total yards.  Not that the team needed it, but his day would have been even better if a long receiving TD hadn't been called back due to a penalty.  His Fantasy owners are sadly nodding their heads.
• Payton Manning continues to struggle against the Chargers.  For whatever reason, San Diego is the team that has his number.  His 4 Interceptions took away any chance the Colts had of winning.  His struggles can be partially blamed on the pressure the Chargers were able to get on him.  The TV announcers kept doing a freeze frame on his face, showing his goofy squinting expression as he released the ball, anticipating contact.  He was only sacked once, but was hit five times, which is a lot for him.
• Two of Manning's picks were returned for TDs, so he had just as many TD passes to the Chargers as he did for his own team!
• In fairness to Manning, one of those picks that was returned was due to a blatant pass interference non-call.  Eric Weddle wrapped his hands around the waist of Reggie Wayne and pulled him down, giving himself the leverage he needed to get in position to pick off the pass.  On replay it was obvious, so I'm not sure how ref's missed that one.  Even if you assumed the Colts would have scored on that drive (certainly not a given) and took away the points going the other way, San Diego still would have won.  So it's not that big a deal, other than to say that Manning's day is slightly less horrible when you factor that in.
• Meanwhile, Philip Rivers wasn't asked to do much, which is why he managed only 185 yards and zero TDs.  He probably won't complain about the help he got from his defense and running game, but the Chargers are going to need to be behind more often if Rivers is going to have any chance at Marino's record, which he is now way off pace for.
• Antonio Gates returned this week, catching 4 balls for 46 yards, but he didn't look like he was running very well.  He's clearly still in pain and his tolerance for the pain will determine how much he can be used down the stretch.
• Vincent Jackson made his long awaited 2010 debut after holding out thus far due to a contract dispute.  He left the game with a calf injury in the first quarter without recording a catch.
• Jackson didn't get the contract he wanted and only returned because the players association strongly suggested he do so in order to ensure he received credit for the season so that he could become a free agent.  I don't want to doubt the severity of an injury, but is it that far fetched that Jackson could milk this calf injury the rest of the year so that he's still "holding out" but getting credit for the season at the same time?
•  The 49ers won a Pyrrhic victory against Arizona.  While they needed the win to stay close in the NFC West race, they may also have doomed their chances by losing Frank Gore to a broken hip that could put him out for the rest of the season.
• The silver lining to the Gore injury is that in his place they were treated to a vintage performance from Brian Westbrook.  The former Pro-Bowler, who's career seemed over after concussion issues ended his long tenure in Philadelphia, racked up 136 yards and a TD.  Oddly enough, Westbrook was not targeted at all in the passing game.  Did these guys not watch him play in Philly?  He's just as dangerous as a receiver than as a rusher, and it's not like passing to their RBs isn't part of their game plan because Gore catches more passes than most RBs in the league.
• How pathetic is the Arizona offense?  Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower combined for 10 carries for 13 yards.  Derek Anderson failed to complete even half of his pass attempts (16/35) for under 200 yards.  It's no surprise they were kept out of the endzone.
• They should have had one TD, but Larry Fitzgerald couldn't keep control of the ball as he went to the ground.  Maybe the ineptitude of the rest of the offense is contagious.
• Apparently the NFL has some dumb rule that says they have to let an NFC West team make the playoffs, despite the fact that no team in the division has a winning record or a positive point differential.  This means that a team like the Giants or Packers may end up missing the playoffs so that an unworthy team can get a free pass based on the fact that they are in a terrible division.
• The Cincinnati Bengals have the league's longest losing streak, now at 8 games.
• The Tennessee Titans are in last in the NFC South, despite having the division's best point differential (+39).  Jacksonville leads the division despite having the worst point differential (-54).
• Next week's Monday Night match-up between the Patriots and Jets may not only decide the division, but perhaps even the top seed in the AFC.  The Pats need a win to get ahead of the Jets.  A loss would mean that not only are the Jets a game ahead, but they'd also own the head-to-head tie breaker thanks to their win at home back in September.  So the Patriots would need the Jets to lose at least 2 of their final 4 games to surpass them if they don't win this game.  Otherwise they may have to settle for a Wild Card and a playoff path that takes them on the road.

NFL Week 11 Review

Bye weeks are over now, so we got to see a full slate of games this week for the first time since Week 3.  The more football the better as far as I'm concerned, although I may suffer from some serious finger cramping by the end of this due to writing about more games. 

Here are some things I noticed this week.

• The Bears opened the week on Thursday by dominating the Dolphins.  Or about as "dominant" as you can be when you only score 16 points.  So really it was just their defense that dominated.  And their field goal Kicker.
• Miami's play calling was atrocious.  They were down to their 3rd string QB and lost Brandon Marshall to an injury during the game, yet they never even attempted to establish a running game.  Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams had three carries each.  QB Tyler Thigpen had the same number of rushes as both his RBs combined!  What happened to the days when their RB duo ran the Wild Cat offense to make up for their lack of a passing game?  Now they lack both a passing and running game.
• The Bills have won 2 in a row!  Their improbable playoff run continues!  Ok, maybe not, but fans in Buffalo don't have much else to be excited about, especially now that the weather is becoming unbearably cold that far north.
• Steve Johnson (8 catches, 137 yards, 3 TDs) may be the best WR in the league that most people have never heard of.  Maybe it's because he plays for a miserable Buffalo team or maybe it's because he has such a commonly dull name.  Nonetheless, there are still only two receivers in the league with more TDs than Johnson (9) this season.
• This was truly a game of two halves, as the Bengals dominated the first half, leading 31-14 at the break, but then they couldn't score at all in the second half, blowing a lead by giving up 5 TDs in the second half!  When it looks like you are going to win in a blowout by halftime but then end up getting blown out by the end of the game then I think it's safe to say you have a problem finishing games.  It looks like T.Ocho and friends didn't bother to show up for the 2nd half.
• Cinncinnati has now fallen behind Buffalo to become the worst team in the AFC.  Weren't they supposed to be a playoff contender?
• There's only three things you can count on in life: Death, Taxes and the Lions will lose on the road.  They at least usually make things interesting, but Jon Kitna's 29 yard bootleg run for a TD put this one far out of reach near the end of the 4th quarter.
• Speaking of Kitna, which stat is more amazing: 4 total TDs (3 passing, 1 rushing) or ZERO turnovers?  If it were an elite QB we were talking about I'd say that's just another typical week, but for Kitna to not turn the ball over is a once in a blue moon kind of event.
• The Redskins beat the Titans on a FG in Overtime.  They had a chance to win it in regulation, but missed on a 47 yard attempt.  Surprisingly, the Redskins allowed Donnovan McNabb to remain in the game for that final drive.  If only they had put in game closing specialist Rex Grossman at the end they may have been able to get a little closer to make it an easier attempt (the FG was short by about 2 yards).  With only 1:37 remaining when that drive started it's amazing that McNabb had the cardiovascular endurance to take them from their own 22 yard line all the way to within reasonable FG range.  Where was Rex?
• Or that's the take I'd have on the situation if I was crazy... like Mike Shanahan was a few weeks ago.  What was different this week?  Did McNabb miraculously get into better shape since then or did Shanahan just not want to be crucified by the media for making that bold mistake decision again.
• Vince Young left the game early with an injury and may not be back... ever.  Not due to the injury, but due to his post game tirade where he reportedly dropped a few unpleasant words before walking out on his coach.  According to his coach, he also threw half his uniform into the stands, which is one of the best hissy fit moments by a player this year. 
• Jeff Fisher mentioned that Young may require season ending surgery.  Even if that's not true, they should just pretend it is and bench VY for the rest of the year.  He has a history of immaturity and this has to be the last straw.  There is a difference between being a competitive player that plays with passion and being a distracting headache.
• In case there was any doubt about there being friction between the player and coach, Young was quoted as yelling "I'm not running out on my teammates, I'm running out on you," as he stormed out of the locker room.
• Who would have bet on there being drama in the Titan's locker room that didn't revolve around Randy Moss after a game where he failed to record a catch?
• Coming off a couple of disappointing weeks, the Chiefs finally got back on track with a much needed win to take back the division lead.  They are still undefeated at home.
• Dwayne Bowe was criticized early in the season for a lack of focus that led to lots of dropped passes.  Lately he's been doing his best to quiet those critics.  After another big game (109 yards, 2 TDs) Bowe now leads the league in receiving TDs (11).
• Beanie Wells returned, claiming his knee is now 100%, but only touched the ball 8 times.  Not enough of a sample size to see how effective he is at this point.  He and Tim Hightower both averaged around 5 yards per carry, but neither was able to get many attempts due to the lopsided score.
• In what could very well be the last chance Brett Favre will ever have to stick it to his old Packers team, it looks like it was Green Bay that got the last laugh.  The Vikings were embarrassed 31-3 and Favre did nothing to help avoid that.  Perhaps this is the wake up call he needed to decide it's finally time to retire.  For good this time.
• Not even the return of Sydney Rice, who had missed the season's previous games due to off-season hip surgery, could turn things around for the Vikings offense.  3 catches for 56 yards isn't terrible for a first game back off a serious injury, but it wasn't a difference maker.  Rice can't look like the breakout star from last year if Favre isn't playing like the Favre of last year.
• The Vikings finally listed to their fans and fired Brad Childress on Monday.  It's too late for them to turn around this season, but the move was long overdue.  Chilly had let that team get out of control and his team hated him.  No really, one anonymous player actually said he hates him.  They clearly quit on him already, and a blow out loss to the rival Packers was rock bottom, opening up the perfect opportunity for them to hand Childress his pink slip.  They may not win many more games with a new coach, but you have to think there at least will be a lot less tension in the locker room, so things are already improving.  You also have to wonder if the new coach will do what Chilly never would - bench Brett Favre.
• The Aaron Rodgers to Greg Jennings combo was unstoppable this week, connecting for 152 yards and 3 TDs.  Jennings is one of the game's best big play receivers, and there were plenty of them in this game.  His 7 catches in the game averaged 21.7 yards per catch.
• After losing on a miracle Hail Mary catch last week, the Texans suffered another late heartbreaking loss this week.  I'm still in shock that they managed to blow this game.  They had the lead with under 2 minutes to go when the Jets comeback attempt was thwarted after a Mark Sanchez Interception that should have sealed the win.  After milking some more time off the clock and making the Jets use up the last of their timeouts, the Texans kicked a FG to go up by 4 point with under 1 minute to go.  Should have been game over, right?  Nope, not if you're facing the league's worst defense!  They gave up a 42 yard bomb to Braylon Edwards when the safety was late coming to help.  In that situation, how do you let a receiver get passed you??  It's one thing if a faster receiver just burns the Corner covering him, but the safety is supposed to back him up.  He tried... just not hard enough.  The Jets scored the winning TD on the next play on a textbook lob to the corner of the endzone to Santonio Holmes.  The Jets string of luck continues with their third straight win that was handed to them by a bonehead play or penalty by their opponent at the end of the game.
• Credit the Jets and Revis for containing Andre Johnson (4 catches, 32 yards), but nobody can stop Arian Foster (143 total yards, 2 TDs).  If Houston didn't keep finding ways to lose close games they'd find themselves in the playoff hunt and Foster would be an MVP candidate.
• The Steelers finally put an end to the Raiders winning streak with a decisive blowout victory.  They entered the game with the league's second best rushing attack, but Bush and McFadden combined for only 47 yards against the Steel Curtain.
• After looking good the past couple weeks in leading Oakland to victories, Jason Campbell appears to have been benched (again) for Bruce Gradkowski.  He wasn't much better, so it's a toss up between which one will start next week.  Do you think they just pick out of a hat before the game?  Or do they use the pre-game coin flip to decide?
• Leave it to the Steelers to win a lopsided blowout but still complain about the refs after.  Granted they set a franchise record for penalty yardage, a jaw dropping 14 penalties for 163 yards (Oakland's offense managed only 182 total yards without the penalties), and some of those calls were a little dubious.  Did it really matter though?  The Steelers are claiming the league is targeting them to send a message about illegal hits because they are the most physical defense in the league.  I doubt that's true, but when James Harrison runs his mouth about how he intends to hurt people on every play then that probably isn't helping.
• Richard Seymour was ejected from the game for smacking Ben Roethisberger across the face.  Seems a bit harsh considering he was only doing what every college girl in the country wishes they could do.  This slap is dedicated to all of you drunk college chicks out there!
• There is no truth to the rumor that Seymour slapped him only after Ben asked him if his daughter is 18 yet.  Or at least I think I made that up, but is it hard to imagine Big Ben acting like a creepier version of Quagmire from Family Guy?
• Carolina lost both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewert, neither of which came close to the 100 yard mark in a game all season.  So of course Mike Goodson starts twice and goes over the century mark both times.  Are teams just not game planning their defense around him they did for D-Will and The Daily Show, or was the offensive line not quite as much at fault for their miserable play?
• Throwing an Interception is never good, but it's even worse when it gets returned for a TD.  Brian St. Pierre did it twice... on back-to-back plays.  He's like the anti-comeback player.
• The Jaguars win wasn't quite as dramatic this week, but they still got the winning TD with just over 1 minute to go.  A thrilling victory by most standards, but they just set the bar too high after last week.
• How are the Jaguars leading the AFC South?  I won't complain about anything that could keep the Colts out of the playoffs, but nobody expected Jacksonville to even be a contender.
• The Falcons continue their quest to prove they are the best team in the NFC.  The title is still up for grabs, but this week they provided another example of why they deserve it.  Matt Ryan may not be the biggest name or put up the flashiest stats, but if they keep winning then he will work his way into the MVP consideration.
• Sam Bradford isn't there yet, but maybe he can win the award for best offensive rookie.  He could be one of Matty Ice's challengers for the league's best QB in 5 years.
• Atlanta better keep it up, because the Saints are hot on their trail.  The defending Super Bowl champs are only 1 game behind and the teams still have another game against each other that could decide the division.
• Drew Brees (382 yards, 106.9 rating) and Matt Hasselbeck (366 yards, 104.9 rating) had fairly similar days.  The difference is that the Saints drives ended with TDs and the Seahawks settled for FGs. 
• Reggie Bush was supposed to return this week, but ended up being inactive again.  Not that they really needed him for this one.
• Tampa Bay stayed in the race for the NFC South by shutting out the 49ers.  Shutting down Frank Gore is no easy challenge, but they did it relatively well.  They have already exceeded expectations (well, except from their coach, who thinks they are the best team in the league), but a tough schedule down the stretch could take them out of contention.
• Mike Williams played, despite being arrested for a DUI earlier in the week, and caught another TD.
• The Colts started to bring back some eerie memories from last year when they came back to beat New England after trailing 31-14 in the 4th quarter.  This time the score was the same to begin the 4th and once again Manning ripped through the Patriots defense for two more TDs to close the game to within 3.  When the Pats failed to move the chains enough to run out the clock it gave Manning a chance for another one of his trademark gut wrenching comebacks.  Only this time the script wasn't the same.  When the Colts got into FG range to potentially tie the game in the closing minutes it seemed hopeless for Pats fans (myself included).  It seemed inevitable at that point that Manning would once again rip our hearts out.  Not this time.  Manning threw his third Interception of the game to seal the victory for the Patriots.
• Just like old times: Manning gets twice as many yards and TDs, but it's Brady who gets the victory.
• The Eagles won a statement game to take over the lead in the NFC East from the Giants.  Michael Vick wasn't quite as impressive as last week, but he did score one rushing TD, thanks in part to a great hold  block by DeSean Jackson in the endzone.
• Vick turned the ball over for the first time this season on a fumble in the 4th quarter.  He still has yet to throw an Interception this season - the only QB in the league with as many starts as Vick that can say that.  He still leads the league in QB Rating.
• Eli Manning had a miserable game with 4 turnovers of his own.  Ahmad Bradshaw was shut down and also lost his league leading 5th fumble of the season. 
• The lone bright spot for Bradshaw actually came as a defensive player.  After Asante Samuel picked off one of his two Interceptions, it was Bradshaw that delivered the hit that knocked the ball loose, causing Samuel to fumble and the Giants to get the ball back.
• The Broncos got off to a good start Monday Night by effortlessly driving down the field on their first drive and scoring on a short run by Knowshon Moreno.  It all went down hill from there, as the Chargers responded with 35 straight points.  It took them a couple of drives to get started, but once they started to click on offense the Chargers couldn't be stopped.
• Philip Rivers' quest for the passing record took a bit of a hit due to a fairly ordinary yardage day (by his standards).  He is now just barely off pace to beat Marino's record of 5,084.  Rivers is on pace for 5,083.
• Orton had a fairly ordinary day as well, thanks to some heavy pressure from the Chargers pass rush.  He was sacked 5 times! 
• His day would have been helped if Brandon Lloyd could have pulled in a bomb that went just off his fingertips.  He appeared to have slowed down during the play, before accelerating again in an attempt to catch up to the ball.  Had he kept going it would have been a sure TD and could have changed the outlook of the game.
• It was a good day statistically for some of the elite QBs, as Manning, Brees and Rodgers all passed for 300+ yards and 4 TDs.  Philip Rivers just missed out on joining the club due to a lack of yards (233), but still had 4 TDs.  Manning had the most yards of any of them, but was the only one in the group to do so in a losing effort.
• 4 out of the 8 NFL divisions have two teams tied for first place.  Out of the other 4 divisions, none of them has a first place team that is ahead by more than 1 game.
• Jacksonville leads the AFC South despite having the division's worst point differential (-50).
• The Cowboys have to be encouraged by their 2 game win streak under new coach Jason Garrett, especially with the news that Tony Romo could return in three weeks.  But they are still 4 games back of a playoff spot with only 6 games remaining, so they are still a long shot.  With their brutal schedule (New Orleans, Indy, Philly) they will likely be out of contention before Romo is healthy enough to return, which makes you wonder if they will even bother to risk his long term healthy by rushing him back.

Red Sox have tough choices this off-season

The Boston Red Sox are coming off of a disappointing 2010 season where injuries crippled the roster, sending a league high 23 players to the disabled list.  Losing players to injuries during the season is not a recipe for success, but now the Sox find themselves in danger of losing players another way.

Free Agency.

Several key players from last year's roster are eligible for free agency, including Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez.  The Sox will have some important decisions to make over the next couple of months that will have a substantial impact not only on the 2011 roster, but on future seasons as well.

There are some big name free agents available this winter, such as Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth.  If Boston decides to pursue any of these players then it may impact their ability to retain some of their own players.

The biggest prize in Free Agency this off-season will undoubtedly be Cliff Lee, the ace of the Texas Rangers that helped lead the team to their first ever World Series appearance.  It seems inevitable that the Yankees will throw a boatload of money at him to ensure he ends up in New York, but don't count out the Rangers to retain their star pitcher.  They have new owners and a new TV deal that brings in a lot of extra revenue for the team, which they intend to spend in order to pick up where they left off last season.  Lee would not be a good fit in Boston given that the Sox already have a lot of money committed to their rotation and do not have an open spot.  He will also command a lot of money and years, which GM Theo Epstein would be uneasy about giving to a pitcher that is already 32 years old.

The top hitters on the market are both Outfielders - Crawford and Werth.  They are both coming off great seasons and will both likely cash in with big contracts.  The Red Sox are one of many teams rumored to be interested in both of these players and should be considered amongst the favorites to land one of them.

As for which player is the better fit for the Red Sox, I would go with Crawford.  He doesn't have the power that Werth has, but he has blazing speed, hits for a higher average and at age 29 he is two years younger than Werth.  He's one of the best defensive Left Fielders in the game, with the speed to play Center Field if needed.  He was also one of the best clutch hitters in the game last season, hitting .359 with runners in scoring position.

Werth is also an All-Star caliber player, but he seems like more of a consolation prize.  Given that he is represented by Scott Boras, he will certainly be looking to be paid about the same.  He has more power than Crawford, and contributes his fair share on the base paths as well while playing above average defense.  He flirted with the .300 mark last season, but is only a .272 career hitter.  However, he does know how to take pitches and earn walks, which the Sox place a lot of value on.  His .367 career OBP is higher than Crawford's (.337) and he has him beat in career Slugging % as well.  His numbers are impressive, but giving him a contract that is 5+ years for big money could bring similar results to that of J.D. Drew. 

For a look at how the player's overall value compares between the two, Crawford's 6.9 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) beats Werth's 5.0, according to FanGraphs.com.

Let's look at a breakdown of the team by position to see where holes need to be filled and the options they have to put together a re-vamped roster.

Catcher: Victor Martinez is a free agent and given how many teams have shown interest it seems the team is in danger of losing him.  While it would hurt to lose a player of his caliber, it may actually hurt more to retain him.  He is looking for a contract of at least 4 years and wants to be paid like an All-Star Catcher.  The problem is, how much longer is he going to last at that position?  He's already a poor defensive Catcher (can't throw out baserunners and is only mediocre at handling a pitching staff) so it seems likely that before the end of the contract he will be forced to move to 1B or DH.  While his numbers (.302 AVG/.351 OBP/.493 SLG) were good last year for a Catcher, they don't translate to All-Star levels as a 1B or DH, positions that generally expect better power numbers.

The problem with not bringing V-Mart back is who else can you get?  Jason Varitek is well passed his prime.  If the team keeps their Captain it will only be for sentimental value and as a back-up.  That leaves Jarrod Saltalamacchia as the only other Catcher on the roster with big league experience.  Epstein claims he is comfortable entering the season with Salty as a starter, but despite his great potential he has yet to show it consistently enough to be a dependable option.  If they don't truly believe he can handle it yet then they may be forced to overpay for Martinez now and worry about how he fits in later.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis is a lock to stay in the lineup, but not a lock to remain at 1B.  Depending on if the team is able to retain Adrian Beltre, Youk may be forced to move across the diamond to 3B, where he started his career at.  He's a better defensive player at 1B, but finding a replacement there would be easier than finding another quality Third Baseman.  If the team plans to continue to pursue Adrian Gonzalez, either via trade with San Diego or in Free Agency next year, then they have to keep that option open.

Second Base: With a healthy Dustin Pedroia returning to the lineup there's no reason to worry here.

Shortstop: Marco Scutaro currently holds the starting spot, but he's been rumored to be on the trading block as a chip to acquire more bullpen help.  Jed Lowrie showed enough at the end of last season to suggest he could fill the position this year.  Top prospect Jose Inglesias is probably another year away.

Not that it makes sense from a talent or value perspective, but what a coup it would be if they stole Derek Jeter away from New York!  Would never happen, and actually would hurt the Sox (mostly defensively, but he slipped a lot at the plate last year too), but it would be funny at least.

Third Base: Retaining Adrian Beltre may be their best option given the lack of other options available at the position.  There is a steep fall between Beltre and the next best free agent at the position (Juan Uribe?).  Mike Lowell is likely to retire and Lowrie doesn't have the power that teams typically want from a corner infielder.  Beltre is one of the best defensive Third Basemen in the league and is coming off a monstrous offensive season (.321 AVG/.365 OBP/.553 SLG), which drives up his value.  The concern here is that he has only had one other outstanding offensive season in his career, which also happened to be in a contract year back in 2004.  That helped land him a big contract in Seattle, where he was a disappointment.  Part of his dropoff in production can be blamed on the pitcher friendly confines of Safeco field, but we also can't assume he will to continue at an MVP caliber level even if he stays in Boston, despite that he'll be paid like it.

If they can't retain Beltre then their best option may be to move Youkilis back to 3B and pursue a 1B through trade (Gonzalez, Fielder) or Free Agency (Konerko, Dunn).  They lack impact prospects at the hot corner, but could promote one of their 1B prospects such as Lars Anderson or Anthony Rizzo in a worst case scenario.

Outfield: The team seemed pretty set at the beginning of last season, but injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron forced the team to juggle between an endless amount of OF combinations.  It's likely they will focus on signing Carl Crawford, with either he or Ellsbury moving to CF.  JD Drew only has one year left on his contract, so he will stay in RF this year and likely be replaced by one of the young prospects, such as Ryan Kalish in 2012. 

If the Sox can't get Crawford then they will likely be happy settling for Jayson Werth, as long as the contract isn't too unreasonable.  If they strike out on both of them then they may be in trouble.  Cameron is getting old and with his injuries last year he can't be counted on to play a full season in CF.  He's more of a 4th OF/defensive replacement at this point.  Some of the younger prospects filled in admirably last year when called upon to fill in for injured players, but the team won't want to rely on that again if they intend to get back to the playoffs.  As expensive as it'll be to obtain one of those top Free Agent hitters, they can off-set some of those concerns knowing that after this season they will have the contracts of Drew, Ortiz and Dice-K coming off their payroll.

Another option is to use some prospects from their highly regarded farm system to trade for a player.  The Diamondbacks reportedly are shopping Justin Upton and were in discussions with Boston about a deal.  So far it hasn't amounted to anything because Arizona is asking for far too much for a player that hasn't proven himself yet.  He also was shut down with a re-curring shoulder injury last season which should raise some red flags, plus he is a strike out prone hitter that doesn't walk a lot, so he doesn't fit the team's philsophy.  You also have to wonder why Arizona is even considering listening to offers for a player they not long ago said was untouchable.  Still, he's an exciting young player with a very high ceiling, so they should keep an eye on how that develops in case the price becomes more reasonable.  The Brewers are rumored to be discussing the possibility of trading Ryan Bruan, but they are more likely to trade Prince Fielder.  They pretty much have to trade one of them for some pitching help, but they have to keep one of them.  Expect the Sox to show some interest if either is made available.

Designated Hitter: The team picked up the $12.5 Million 1 year option on David Ortiz's contract to ensure the slugger remains in Boston for at least another year.  He wanted a longer term extension of at least two more years instead of one, but the team was uncomfortable guaranteeing anything longer than they have to.  Smart choice considering Ortiz doesn't have the body of someone that seemingly would age well and is already 35 years old.  He proved last year that he can still be relatively productive, but his numbers are still in decline and the slow starts from the past few seasons are troubling.  Depending on what they do with other roster decisions they may need to leave the DH spot open in the future to provide some extra flexibility.  For instance, if they keep Victor Martinez or go after Prince Fielder next year then either of those players could wind up as a DH at some point.

Starting Pitching: The starting rotation is set with Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey and Dice-K.  They need to figure out it the ageless wonder Tim Wakefield will be back and fill in some depth as back up options to protect against the inevitable injuries.  They have some options in the minors that could be ready soon.  They recently traded for Andrew Miller, a former #1 pick that never panned out but could rebound with a new team.  Perhaps reuniting with former college teammate Daniel Bard will help him get back on track.  They may also look at some other low risk/high reward type pitchers like Justin Duchscherer or Brandon Webb.

Bullpen: This is an area where the 2010 Red Sox struggled and will be a key focus as part of their off-season planning.  Middle relievers are probably the most unpredictable players in the game.  They can look brilliant one season and fall apart the next, or come out of nowhere to be unhittable.  They need guys like Okajima to have better seasons, but also need to fill in some more reliable options to support the bullpen.  They could target guys like Rafael Soriano, Kerry Wood or Scott Downs, but they will come at a high cost.

A major issue hanging over the bullpen is the decision on what to do with Closer Jonathan Papelbon.  He's coming off the worst year of his career (3.90 ERA, 8 Blown Saves), but is still considered one of the top Closers in the game and could get as much as $13 million this season in his last year of arbitration.  He's likely to leave for the highest bidder next year, so the team is entertaining the idea of trading him now rather than watching him leave.  They could then turn the Closer role over to Daniel Bard and hopefully get back a few quality pieces for Papelbon, at least some of which may help add some depth to the bullpen.  Having two guys at the back of the bullpen that you can count on is a huge advantage, but if the Sox can find the right deal that could add more depth at a cheaper price then they should not hesitate to pull the trigger.

There are several directions the team could choose to go in that will dictate the direction of the team over the next several years.  While going after big name stars through Free Agency and trades makes for good headlines and keeps fans happy, the Red Sox brass needs to be smart about their decisions to avoid being stuck with contracts they may regret (we're looking at you John Lackey!).

Here is what a potential 2011 projected lineup could look like.  Numbers in parenthesis indicate the players value based on WAR, which estimates the amount of wins the player adds to the team compared to a replacement level player.

CF: Jacoby Ellsbury (2.7*)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (5.9*)
LF: Carl Craword (6.9)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (5.9*)
3B: Adrian Beltre (7.1)
DH: David Ortiz (3.3)
RF: JD Drew (2.6)
C: Jarrod Saltalamachia (0.1)
SS: Jed Jowrie (1.8)

*WAR is for 2009 season since player missed a big portion of the 2010 season.

Perhaps we'll see Jayson Werth instead of Crawford, or Adrian Gonzalez instead of Beltre.  Maybe Victor Martinez isn't gone yet after all.  There are so many possibilities with so many holes to fill that we can be assured of an exciting and buzz worthy winter in Red Sox Nation.