The Boston Red Sox are coming off of a disappointing 2010 season where injuries crippled the roster, sending a league high 23 players to the disabled list. Losing players to injuries during the season is not a recipe for success, but now the Sox find themselves in danger of losing players another way.
Free Agency.
Several key players from last year's roster are eligible for free agency, including Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez. The Sox will have some important decisions to make over the next couple of months that will have a substantial impact not only on the 2011 roster, but on future seasons as well.
There are some big name free agents available this winter, such as Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth. If Boston decides to pursue any of these players then it may impact their ability to retain some of their own players.
The biggest prize in Free Agency this off-season will undoubtedly be Cliff Lee, the ace of the Texas Rangers that helped lead the team to their first ever World Series appearance. It seems inevitable that the Yankees will throw a boatload of money at him to ensure he ends up in New York, but don't count out the Rangers to retain their star pitcher. They have new owners and a new TV deal that brings in a lot of extra revenue for the team, which they intend to spend in order to pick up where they left off last season. Lee would not be a good fit in Boston given that the Sox already have a lot of money committed to their rotation and do not have an open spot. He will also command a lot of money and years, which GM Theo Epstein would be uneasy about giving to a pitcher that is already 32 years old.
The top hitters on the market are both Outfielders - Crawford and Werth. They are both coming off great seasons and will both likely cash in with big contracts. The Red Sox are one of many teams rumored to be interested in both of these players and should be considered amongst the favorites to land one of them.
As for which player is the better fit for the Red Sox, I would go with Crawford. He doesn't have the power that Werth has, but he has blazing speed, hits for a higher average and at age 29 he is two years younger than Werth. He's one of the best defensive Left Fielders in the game, with the speed to play Center Field if needed. He was also one of the best clutch hitters in the game last season, hitting .359 with runners in scoring position.
Werth is also an All-Star caliber player, but he seems like more of a consolation prize. Given that he is represented by Scott Boras, he will certainly be looking to be paid about the same. He has more power than Crawford, and contributes his fair share on the base paths as well while playing above average defense. He flirted with the .300 mark last season, but is only a .272 career hitter. However, he does know how to take pitches and earn walks, which the Sox place a lot of value on. His .367 career OBP is higher than Crawford's (.337) and he has him beat in career Slugging % as well. His numbers are impressive, but giving him a contract that is 5+ years for big money could bring similar results to that of J.D. Drew.
For a look at how the player's overall value compares between the two, Crawford's 6.9 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) beats Werth's 5.0, according to FanGraphs.com.
Let's look at a breakdown of the team by position to see where holes need to be filled and the options they have to put together a re-vamped roster.
Catcher: Victor Martinez is a free agent and given how many teams have shown interest it seems the team is in danger of losing him. While it would hurt to lose a player of his caliber, it may actually hurt more to retain him. He is looking for a contract of at least 4 years and wants to be paid like an All-Star Catcher. The problem is, how much longer is he going to last at that position? He's already a poor defensive Catcher (can't throw out baserunners and is only mediocre at handling a pitching staff) so it seems likely that before the end of the contract he will be forced to move to 1B or DH. While his numbers (.302 AVG/.351 OBP/.493 SLG) were good last year for a Catcher, they don't translate to All-Star levels as a 1B or DH, positions that generally expect better power numbers.
The problem with not bringing V-Mart back is who else can you get? Jason Varitek is well passed his prime. If the team keeps their Captain it will only be for sentimental value and as a back-up. That leaves Jarrod Saltalamacchia as the only other Catcher on the roster with big league experience. Epstein claims he is comfortable entering the season with Salty as a starter, but despite his great potential he has yet to show it consistently enough to be a dependable option. If they don't truly believe he can handle it yet then they may be forced to overpay for Martinez now and worry about how he fits in later.
First Base: Kevin Youkilis is a lock to stay in the lineup, but not a lock to remain at 1B. Depending on if the team is able to retain Adrian Beltre, Youk may be forced to move across the diamond to 3B, where he started his career at. He's a better defensive player at 1B, but finding a replacement there would be easier than finding another quality Third Baseman. If the team plans to continue to pursue Adrian Gonzalez, either via trade with San Diego or in Free Agency next year, then they have to keep that option open.
Second Base: With a healthy Dustin Pedroia returning to the lineup there's no reason to worry here.
Shortstop: Marco Scutaro currently holds the starting spot, but he's been rumored to be on the trading block as a chip to acquire more bullpen help. Jed Lowrie showed enough at the end of last season to suggest he could fill the position this year. Top prospect Jose Inglesias is probably another year away.
Not that it makes sense from a talent or value perspective, but what a coup it would be if they stole Derek Jeter away from New York! Would never happen, and actually would hurt the Sox (mostly defensively, but he slipped a lot at the plate last year too), but it would be funny at least.
Third Base: Retaining Adrian Beltre may be their best option given the lack of other options available at the position. There is a steep fall between Beltre and the next best free agent at the position (Juan Uribe?). Mike Lowell is likely to retire and Lowrie doesn't have the power that teams typically want from a corner infielder. Beltre is one of the best defensive Third Basemen in the league and is coming off a monstrous offensive season (.321 AVG/.365 OBP/.553 SLG), which drives up his value. The concern here is that he has only had one other outstanding offensive season in his career, which also happened to be in a contract year back in 2004. That helped land him a big contract in Seattle, where he was a disappointment. Part of his dropoff in production can be blamed on the pitcher friendly confines of Safeco field, but we also can't assume he will to continue at an MVP caliber level even if he stays in Boston, despite that he'll be paid like it.
If they can't retain Beltre then their best option may be to move Youkilis back to 3B and pursue a 1B through trade (Gonzalez, Fielder) or Free Agency (Konerko, Dunn). They lack impact prospects at the hot corner, but could promote one of their 1B prospects such as Lars Anderson or Anthony Rizzo in a worst case scenario.
Outfield: The team seemed pretty set at the beginning of last season, but injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron forced the team to juggle between an endless amount of OF combinations. It's likely they will focus on signing Carl Crawford, with either he or Ellsbury moving to CF. JD Drew only has one year left on his contract, so he will stay in RF this year and likely be replaced by one of the young prospects, such as Ryan Kalish in 2012.
If the Sox can't get Crawford then they will likely be happy settling for Jayson Werth, as long as the contract isn't too unreasonable. If they strike out on both of them then they may be in trouble. Cameron is getting old and with his injuries last year he can't be counted on to play a full season in CF. He's more of a 4th OF/defensive replacement at this point. Some of the younger prospects filled in admirably last year when called upon to fill in for injured players, but the team won't want to rely on that again if they intend to get back to the playoffs. As expensive as it'll be to obtain one of those top Free Agent hitters, they can off-set some of those concerns knowing that after this season they will have the contracts of Drew, Ortiz and Dice-K coming off their payroll.
Another option is to use some prospects from their highly regarded farm system to trade for a player. The Diamondbacks reportedly are shopping Justin Upton and were in discussions with Boston about a deal. So far it hasn't amounted to anything because Arizona is asking for far too much for a player that hasn't proven himself yet. He also was shut down with a re-curring shoulder injury last season which should raise some red flags, plus he is a strike out prone hitter that doesn't walk a lot, so he doesn't fit the team's philsophy. You also have to wonder why Arizona is even considering listening to offers for a player they not long ago said was untouchable. Still, he's an exciting young player with a very high ceiling, so they should keep an eye on how that develops in case the price becomes more reasonable. The Brewers are rumored to be discussing the possibility of trading Ryan Bruan, but they are more likely to trade Prince Fielder. They pretty much have to trade one of them for some pitching help, but they have to keep one of them. Expect the Sox to show some interest if either is made available.
Designated Hitter: The team picked up the $12.5 Million 1 year option on David Ortiz's contract to ensure the slugger remains in Boston for at least another year. He wanted a longer term extension of at least two more years instead of one, but the team was uncomfortable guaranteeing anything longer than they have to. Smart choice considering Ortiz doesn't have the body of someone that seemingly would age well and is already 35 years old. He proved last year that he can still be relatively productive, but his numbers are still in decline and the slow starts from the past few seasons are troubling. Depending on what they do with other roster decisions they may need to leave the DH spot open in the future to provide some extra flexibility. For instance, if they keep Victor Martinez or go after Prince Fielder next year then either of those players could wind up as a DH at some point.
Starting Pitching: The starting rotation is set with Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey and Dice-K. They need to figure out it the ageless wonder Tim Wakefield will be back and fill in some depth as back up options to protect against the inevitable injuries. They have some options in the minors that could be ready soon. They recently traded for Andrew Miller, a former #1 pick that never panned out but could rebound with a new team. Perhaps reuniting with former college teammate Daniel Bard will help him get back on track. They may also look at some other low risk/high reward type pitchers like Justin Duchscherer or Brandon Webb.
Bullpen: This is an area where the 2010 Red Sox struggled and will be a key focus as part of their off-season planning. Middle relievers are probably the most unpredictable players in the game. They can look brilliant one season and fall apart the next, or come out of nowhere to be unhittable. They need guys like Okajima to have better seasons, but also need to fill in some more reliable options to support the bullpen. They could target guys like Rafael Soriano, Kerry Wood or Scott Downs, but they will come at a high cost.
A major issue hanging over the bullpen is the decision on what to do with Closer Jonathan Papelbon. He's coming off the worst year of his career (3.90 ERA, 8 Blown Saves), but is still considered one of the top Closers in the game and could get as much as $13 million this season in his last year of arbitration. He's likely to leave for the highest bidder next year, so the team is entertaining the idea of trading him now rather than watching him leave. They could then turn the Closer role over to Daniel Bard and hopefully get back a few quality pieces for Papelbon, at least some of which may help add some depth to the bullpen. Having two guys at the back of the bullpen that you can count on is a huge advantage, but if the Sox can find the right deal that could add more depth at a cheaper price then they should not hesitate to pull the trigger.
There are several directions the team could choose to go in that will dictate the direction of the team over the next several years. While going after big name stars through Free Agency and trades makes for good headlines and keeps fans happy, the Red Sox brass needs to be smart about their decisions to avoid being stuck with contracts they may regret (we're looking at you John Lackey!).
Here is what a potential 2011 projected lineup could look like. Numbers in parenthesis indicate the players value based on WAR, which estimates the amount of wins the player adds to the team compared to a replacement level player.
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury (2.7*)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (5.9*)
LF: Carl Craword (6.9)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (5.9*)
3B: Adrian Beltre (7.1)
DH: David Ortiz (3.3)
RF: JD Drew (2.6)
C: Jarrod Saltalamachia (0.1)
SS: Jed Jowrie (1.8)
*WAR is for 2009 season since player missed a big portion of the 2010 season.
Perhaps we'll see Jayson Werth instead of Crawford, or Adrian Gonzalez instead of Beltre. Maybe Victor Martinez isn't gone yet after all. There are so many possibilities with so many holes to fill that we can be assured of an exciting and buzz worthy winter in Red Sox Nation.
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