The Red Sox and San Diego Padres have agreed to a deal that will send slugging first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to Boston for prospects. Boston has long coveted Gonzalez and has been rumored to be amongst the teams looking to trade for him as far back as the beginning of last season. The three time All-Star finished 4th in the NL MVP voting last season He is an elite player that has priced himself out of San Diego, so with his contract up after this season and little chance at retaining him, the Padres made the wise decision to get some quality prospects for him.
Boston will send their top prospect, pitcher Casey Kelly, as well as their number three prospect, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, and their number 6 prospect, outfielder Reymond Fuentes, to San Diego. They are all quality prospects that could make an impact within the next couple of years at a much cheaper rate for the small market Padres.
Given Boston's financial resources and farm system depth, it's a move they can afford to make. Kelly could end up being a great pitcher, but he's a couple years away and the Sox have a lot of money tied to their rotation already, so at the moment there is no room for him anyway. Lester, Beckett, Buchholz and Lackey are locked up for the next several years. While it would be nice to envision a top prospect like Kelly sliding into that 5th spot next year once Dice-K's contract is up, the Sox have other young pitchers that could challenge for that role, such as Felix Doubront, or they could pursue another veteran in free agency.
Rizzo could develop into a quality slugger, considering he hit 20 Home Runs and knocked in 80 RBIs with a .815 OPS as a 21 year old in Double A Portland last year. Even if he becomes an All-Star at some point down the road, it's hard to imagine him ever being that much better than what Gonzalez gives the team right now. Since they play the same position, he became expendable.
Fuentes is an exciting young speeder who stole 42 bases in Single A Greenville last season. He could become a good player, but he's a long way off from being in the majors and the Sox already have a lot of quality outfield prospects that are ahead of him, such as Ryan Kalish. Boston also intends to make a strong push to acquire one of the top free agent outfielders this year - Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth. That would make him expendable as well. I think the only one that is upset about losing Fuentes in this deal is my mom, after Fuentes became her favorite prospect after her trip to see the Sox and Spring Training last year. She claims I ruined her day when I told her the news that Reymond was traded away.
These are all talented prospects with bright futures, but none of them are a sure fire super star like Gonzalez. The Red Sox are widely considered to have one of the best farm systems in the game, but that speaks more to the depth of their system. There are no Stephen Strasburgs, Jason Heywards or Buster Poseys in this system. Anyone in this system is expendable for the right deal, and this is it.
Now, back to Gonzalez. The casual fan many not know much about him considering he played in relative obscurity for most of his career in San Diego, but he is one of the best first basemen in the game. He's hit between 30-40 Home Runs in each of the past 4 seasons. His career averages are a .284 batting average, .368 OBP, and .507 Slugging. Those numbers compare favorably to the career numbers for Mark Teixeira, who the Sox lost out on two years ago to the Yankees. They have put up very similar numbers for their career, with Gonzalez having the much better year last year. You also have to factor in that Teixeira plays half his games in Yankee Stadium, one of the league's best hitter's parks. Meanwhile, Gonzalez played at Petco Park in San Diego, which is easily the worst hitters park in the majors. The fact that he was able to put up such impressive power numbers in that stadium is a testament to how great a hitter he is. The Red Sox must be salivating over what kind of numbers he will put up in hitter friendly Fenway Park, where a short right field pole becomes so inviting for a power hitting lefty hitter like Gonzalez.
As impressive as he is with the bat, Gonzalez is just as good with a glove. He's a two time Gold Glove award winner, and while it's no secret how little stock I have in that bogus award, Gonzalez is a deserving winner, with a career UZR rating of 6.2. He's also a very durable player, having played at least 156 games in each year in San Diego when he became a full time player. Given the injury woes the team has last season, someone that can avoid the DL will be a welcome addition.
The downside of the deal is that it likely means the end of the Adrian Beltre era in Boston. Kevin Youkilis will shift over to third base, leaving no room for Beltre. While it will be hard to see him go after the year he just had, when he was easily our best all around player, it's the right move. As a free agent, Beltre will command a multi-year deal for a lot of money. He's rumored to have been offered a 5 year $64 million deal from Oakland, and that number could rise if other teams get in on the bidding. That's a lot to give to a player that has a history of having his best years in a contract year. Beltre's best season was with the Dodgers in 2004 when he hit .334 with 48 home runs. That break out year got him a big contract from Seattle, where he was a disappointment. His best year in Seattle doesn't come close to an average year for Adrian Gonzalez. Moving to Fenway was a boon for Beltre's offensive stats, but it's reasonable to assume that Gonzalez is in for a similar spike in production after escaping the cavernous confines of Petco Park. As we'll soon see, Gonzalez is the better player, so if we could only have one then this is the guy we want. The expected contract extension, which is being negotiated as part of the trade, may make him more expensive, but probably not by much considering he won't actually get to free agency, so no other teams can drive up the price like they can for Beltre.
This deal also lessens the blow of losing Victor Martinez. Many in Boston were in an uproar after the Sox allowed V-Mart to walk away to Detroit. You have to keep in mind though that Martinez will be 32 years old this season and is already a poor defensive catcher. He's an All-Star because of the production that he gives you from a position that generally doesn't offer much offensive punch, but the problem is that he won't actually be a catcher for most of that contract. With Gonzalez on board it takes away the option of playing him at first base, which means if we kept Martinez for 4 more years he would have been mostly a DH after this season, making less appearances behind the plate as each year progresses. When you think of his numbers from the DH spot as opposed to the catcher position they suddenly don't look quite as impressive. Not that they aren't still good numbers, they just aren't worthy of the money it would have taken to keep him.
Plus the Red Sox are far from being done. There is still work to be done to re-stock the bullpen. Supposedly they made an offer to Mariano Rivera (which would have likely resulted in trading Papelbon), but you have to wonder how sincere the offer was. They had to know there was no chance of Mo coming to Boston, so the offer was meant more to raise the price for the Yankees (he agreed to a 2 year $30 million deal this week).
There is also a likely probability that the Red Sox will acquire either Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth. The Angels are their biggest competition, and the Yankees could always jump in if they fail to sign Cliff Lee (not because they need an outfielder, but just because they will feel obligated to spend money on a big name). But it seems reasonable that they will have a shot at one of those two. I'd prefer Crawford, who is younger and provides a better all around game, but Werth seems more likely. He'll require less total dollars and years and also combines with Youkilis to give a nice right handed power hitting compliment to the lefty duo of Gonzalez and David Ortiz.
Here is what the Red Sox lineup could potentially look like after this deal, and assuming we include one of the free agent outfielders.
CF - Jacoby Ellsbury
2B - Dustin Pedroia
LF - Carl Crawford/Jayson Werth
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
3B - Kevin Youkilis
DH - David Ortiz
RF - JD Drew
C - Jarrod Salalamacchia
SS - Marco Scutaro
That lineup is even more impressive than the opening day lineup from last season, which included Beltre and Martinez. There is still some work to be done to make it happen, but the first domino has fallen with the deal for Adrian Gonzalez. It won't be long before Red Sox Nation gets a chance to see what Gonzalez can do, and when they do they will be glad they have him.
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