The Jeter Dilemma

Legend.  Icon.  Future Hall-of Famer.  Greedy?

Those terms can be used to describe Derek Jeter, but the New York Yankees have to hope that the last of those terms isn't how he'll be remembered in New York. 

The Yankees have their hands full this off-season, and it's not just because of their intent to lead the bidding war for Cliff Lee.  Getting him to sign his name on the dotted line isn't the problem.

The problem for the Yankees, surprisingly, is coming from their Captain. 

For the first time in a decade, Jeter is eligible for free agency.  While many overlooked the issue under the assumption that the Yankees would retain their star Shortstop, it apparently has become easier said than done.  The issue?  Money.  Of course.

The Yankees are notorious for throwing money around, to the point that you have to wonder if the Steinbrenners have a giant pool full of money that they swim in, like Scrooge McDuck.  They overpay free agents to take other bidders out of contention and their 2010 payroll was over $206 million, over $45 million more than the next highest team's payroll.  Alex Rodriguez on his own makes almost as much money as the entire Pittsburgh Pirates roster!  Suffice it to say, money is not an issue for the Yankees.

That being said, does a nearly limitless spending limit mean that they are obligated to make financial mistakes?  It's one thing to throw bundles of money at the best free agents available, but do they have to overpay their own players to stay as well?

The Yankees have put a very generous offer of 3 years for $45 million on the table.  While it is a drop from the $22 million he made last year, there aren't too many 36 year olds that would scoff at $15 million per year.  Unless your  name happens to be Derek Jeter.

Jeter is asking for an absurd 6 year deal worth $150 million.  He may even consider being talked down to a 4-5 year deal as long as the annual payment is around $20 per season.  Gee, how kind of him.

The last time Jeter was eligible to become a free agent he signed a massive 10 year $189 million deal with the Yankees.  While I wouldn't call that a reasonable deal, you can see the logic behind it.  At the time, Jeter was considered to be the 2nd best SS in the game, behind Alex Rodriguez, who had just signed a 10 year $252 Million deal with Texas.  That was 10 years ago.  Flash forward to present day and Jeter is no longer the 2nd best SS in the game.  Probably not even top 5. 

For a comparison, Hanley Rameriz is largely considered the best SS in the game, and he only made $7 million last year.  The Colorado Rockies are on the verge of a contract extension with Troy Tulowitzki that will average a similar annual salary to what the Yankees are offering Jeter.  Both of these elite Shortstops are much younger and likely to outproduce Jeter in each of the next few years, yet Jeter wants to be paid much more than them.  In what world does that make sense?!

The argument that Jeter and his agent are trying to make it that the Yankees are expected to overpay because he's Derek Jeter!  He's the team Captain, their leader, the heart and soul of the team.  He's won 5 World Series Championships, batting titles and Gold Gloves.  He expects to be paid based on past performance, not on what he brings to the table now and in the future.

Sorry Derek, that's not how it works, and the Yankees brass know it.  GM Brian Cashman is too smart for it.  That past performance was great, but it's also the reason he was paid $189 million over the past 10 years for his last contract!  What makes him think that he should get paid at the same rate when his production is not the same?  Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle and Joe DiMaggio all saw their salaries drop dramatically near the end of their careers.  Granted that was before the era of free agency when players had no leverage, but there is still a historical precedence for the Yankees not wanting to overpay a player no matter what kind of a legacy he has with the team.

Make no mistake, his production is in decline.  Last year Jeter batted a career low .270 (not counting his '95 season where he only played 15 games) and his .370 Slugging % is by far the lowest of his career.  He still scored runs and knocked in a respectable amount of runs for a lead off hitter, but that's more a function of the stacked Yankees lineup than of his own production.

What about his defense?  After all, he did win a Gold Glove award in 2010.  Please, the Gold Glove is the biggest joke of any award in baseball.  It has nothing to do with recognizing the best defensive player.  The award is annually given away to the most popular player at the position.  Often times a player's offensive production has more to do with who gets the award because the player is more well known.  Doesn't make much sense for an award that is supposed to be for the best defensive player at the position.  Jeter is actually one of the worst defensive Shortstops in the league.  He's always been overrated, hardly ever having a year where he was even above average.  Yet he's won the award five times.

Don't believe he's not an elite defender?  In 2010 his UZR rating was -4.7 (Ultimate Zone Rating measures the amount of batted balls a defender gets to that are hit into his area of the field compared to the average player).  Jeter gets a lot of credit because people remember the spectacular off balance throws they see on the highlights.  While those are great plays, they don't give an accurate picture of Jeter's defensive ability on a consistent basis.  Going by the old school way of looking at stats, Jeter looks good because he doesn't commit a lot of errors and has a high fielding percentage.  The voters that give him the award based on that are ignorant of the advanced data that is now available and clearly haven't seen him play much.  The reason Jeter doesn't commit many errors is because he doesn't get to nearly as many balls in play as other players.  You can't commit an error on a ball that you don't even get to.  Range has never been one of Jeter's strongest attributes, but as he gets older it is rapidly declining.

It's not uncommon for older players to lose range, which is especially troublesome for Shortstops.  Historically we have seen many Shortstops change positions as they get older to play at a spot where their declining range is less of a liability.  Cal Ripkin Jr. did it.  Alex Rodriguez is doing it.  Eventually Jeter will need to do it as well, whether he wants to or not.  This also needs to be factored in when trying to determine accurate value for Jeter's next contract, as a weak hitting corner infielder isn't worth as much as he would be as a Shortstop.  It's unlikely that any team that goes after Jeter, including the Yankees, will want to consider him as a Shortstop for the entire length of the contract.

According to FanGraphs.com, Jeter had a WAR (wins above replacement player) value of 2.5 last year.  Meaning if they took a replacement level player off the scrap heap and replaced Jeter with him then the 2010 Yankees would only have lost a couple of games in the standings.  In other words, Jeter does make them better, but they still would have made the playoffs as the Wild Card team without him. 

You can't blame Brian Cashman for the stance he's taking.  He put his offer on the table and essentially told Jeter that if he doesn't like it then he can go test his value on the open market.  He's confident that no other team will offer Jeter anywhere close to the amount they are offering, which means the contract they have on the table is paying for past performance.  They are offering to pay a lot more than the market value already, but Jeter's ego won't allow him to see what everyone else thinks is obvious.  He's not worth nearly as much as he thinks he is.  This will soon become painfully clear when other offers either fail to come close to the Yankees offer or fail to come in at all.

Just out of curiosity, let's look at other team's that may show some interest in Jeter to see if it would be worth their while to get in on the bidding.

Boston: They could at least hint at doing it just to stick it to the Yankees and drive up the price, but it's unlikely they would be serious about signing him.  They aren't desperate for a Shortstop and one of their top prospects, Jose Inglesias, is on the way. 

Baltimore: They have been having trouble filling empty seats for their games, so getting a high profile player like Jeter would help sell some more tickets.  Unfortunately the move wouldn't translate to many more wins.  Would Jeter even consider going to a team with no immediate chance at the playoffs?

LA Angels: They have some money to spend and could put him at SS or 3B, but they have bigger priorities in free agency, such as Beltre or Crawford.  They'd have to strike out on all of their top choices before considering Jeter.  They also aren't the type of team to spend money just because they have it.  If they can't get one of the big bats then they will likely wait until next year.

NY Mets: At least they know he can handle the New York market, and they'd love the chance to drive a knife in the back of their cross town rivals.  But unless they end up trading Jose Reyes then they are already set at SS and 3B.  Even if trading Reyes is an option then overpaying an aging veteran to replace him would not be an option.

LA Dodgers: Joe Torre is gone, but Jeter does have a good relationship with new skipper Don Mattingly.  But with the owners dealing with their divorce issues it doesn't seem likely that they can afford to hand out a bad contract.

San Francisco: The Giants should be able to use their recent World Series victory to draw enough fans to fill their ballpark, they don't need to overpay a big name to sell tickets.  They already have too much money tied to Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand to afford clogging their payroll with another overpaid veteran.

That's pretty much it for the teams that could afford to offer a big contract to Jeter.  Other teams are either small market teams that can't afford that kind of risk or teams that don't have a big need for a SS or 3B (or whatever other position they could find to stick Jeter in).

Like it or not, the Yankees are the best fit for Jeter.  Always have been.  No other team will offer him close to the money that he wants and no other team will be as reluctant to move him to another position (in part because the Yankees really don't have anywhere else to put him now, so they have to let him play SS at least a little longer due to a lack of options).  Jeter really has no leverage in this situation because there are no other teams that are eager to raise the price.  Any other team would laugh at him and hang up the phone if he demanded the kind of contract he wants from them, or even if he asked for the same amount the Yankees have already offered.  He's essentially trying to get the Yankees to bid against themselves and they aren't falling for it.

Derek Jeter needs to take a long look in the mirror and realize the harsh reality that he's not the super star he thinks he is anymore.  He's an aging veteran that is on the decline.  He will never be as beloved or valued in any other city as he is in New York.  No other team will treat him as well or pay him as much.  He may not want to admit it, but he needs the Yankees more than the Yankees need him.  Once he finally realizes that then he and the team will finally be able to agree upon a deal to keep in in New York where he belongs.