MLB Playoffs: Championship Series

We're down to the final four, with the top teams remaining in each league battling it out for the pennant.  With a World Series invitation on the line, expect more postseason excitement as each team lays it all on the line.

Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers
These teams are about as evenly matched as you'll find this postseason.  They finished 3rd and 4th in the AL in runs scored this season, but Texas (855) was much closer to first place then they were to dropping behind Detroit (787).  With a star studded lineup that includes Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinslar, Nelson Cruz, and Adrian Beltre, the Rangers have the kind of depth that any team not named the Yankees or Red Sox would envy.  Detroit will counter with Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, two stars clearly in that same All-Star caliber category, but their lineup lacks the depth that Texas has.  Delmon Young, who was a big part of the Tigers second half run after being acquired from the Twins, exited the Game 5 victory in New York with an oblique strain.  That's the type of injury that tends to linger, putting his availability for this series in question and giving the Rangers an even bigger offensive edge.

The Rangers also are the more efficient defensive team, which is an unappreciated aspect of what makes an elite team.  It may not appear that the Rangers are an elite team on the surface, because old school stats show that their 114 errors put them near the bottom of the league in that category.  However, digging deeper into advanced defensive metrics reveals that Texas is by far the more superior defensive team.  According to Fan Graphs, their team UZR of 25.9 placed them 4th in the AL, well ahead of Detroit (-3.7), which was a below average defensive team overall.  That large of a gap could be a difference maker in this series.

If the Tigers have an edge anywhere it's with their pitching.  Justin Verlander may be the best pitcher on the planet right now.  He'll pitch in Game 1 of this series, which puts him in line to pitch in Game 4 and potentially in Game 7.  If he gets to pitch three times in this series then the Tigers are going to be tough to beat.  Despite Veralnder's dominance, Texas (3.79) actually finished a bit ahead of Detroit (4.04) in team ERA this season, but much of that factors in the replacement level starters Detroit was running out there before they traded for Doug Fister (8-1, 1.79 ERA, 0.84 WHIP since joining the Tigers rotation).  Fister gives Detroit a legitimate second starter to slot behind Verlander.  As for the Rangers pitching staff, they go even deeper with talent, but don't have the top end aces to match up with Detroit.  CJ Wilson is coming off an All-Star season, but he's been shaky in his postseason career.  He's 0-3 with a 6.26 ERA in his past 4 postseason starts, which includes getting shelled by Tampa Bay during the ALDS series.  Texas needs their ace to step up to at least give them a chance in the games he opposes Verlander.

The pitching advantage, especially with Verlander potentially pitching three times in this series, makes me want to consider picking Detroit for this series, but I think Texas is slightly the better overall team.  Given their home field advantage in the series, I'm leaning towards them.  Despite that a potential Game 7 would be held in Texas, the thought of Verlander being available to start for the Tigers in that game against the struggling Wilson doesn't give much hope for the Rangers, but I think they take care of business before it gets to that point.

Prediction:  Rangers in 6


Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals surprised the world, not just for their strong finish to the regular season that saw them surpass the Braves for the NL Wild Card spot, but for overcoming the golden rotation of the heavily favored Phillies, who led the majors in wins.  Much of that is thanks to the performance of their ace, Chris Carpenter, who's complete game shut out in Game 5 in Philadelphia is the reason they are here.  With the roll Carpenter has been on through September and into the postseason, the crafty veteran may be the most dangerous pitcher in this series.  Unfortunately, for the Cardinals, his heroics in the last series also means he won't be available to start until Game 3 of this series.  He could be lined up to also start a potential Game 7, if it gets that far.  If it doesn't, then only having the luxury of using their ace once in this series could hurt their chances.  Their rotation fills out with Jamie Garcia and Edwin Jackson, two capable pitchers that will still give them a chance, but they don't quite match up with the likes of Grienke, Marcum and Gallardo.

Grienke will get the call in Game 1 in Milwaukee, where he was undefeated this season (11-0 in 15 starts at home).  Grienke has a history of shying away from the big stage, which is part of why he agreed to be traded from the small market Royals to the smaller market Brewers.  As the Brew Crew advance further into the postseason and the spotlight begins to shine a bit brighter, you have to wonder how he will handle the pressure.  He's also lined up to start Game 5 on the road.  The Brewers may be better served holding him off until Game 6, if possible, to allow him to pitch at home, where he's been substantially more effective (5-6, 4.70 ERA on the road).

The Cardinals have a formidable force in the middle of their lineup consisting of Pujols, Berkman and Holliday.  The Brewers counter with two MVP candidates in Fielder and Bruan.  The performance of these stars will go a long way towards determining this series, but the Brewers lineup has more depth to fall back on, with the likes of Weeks, Hart, and Morgan to help pick up the slack if either of their stars struggle.  The Cardinals lineup isn't nearly as deep.

The Brewers are not known for their defensive skills, but surprisingly that may not hurt them as much as you might think.  They are solid up the middle, but have issues on both sides of the diamond.  The left side of their infield in particular with McGehee and Bentancourt is abysmal.  They've helped themselves lately by giving more playing time to Jerry Hairston Jr. at third base, but calling them below average may be being too kind.  Yet somehow they managed to rank near the top of the NL in advanced defensive metrics, such as UZR (16.2).  Their two stars, Fielder and Bruan, won't be winning any gold glove awards, but each has improved defensively to the point where they aren't as much of a liability as they have been in the past.  Surprisingly, it was the typically defensively sound Cardinals that ranked near the bottom of the league (-29.8 UZR).

The Brewers were the best home team in the majors, winning 57 games in their park.  They'll have home field advantage in this series, which should give them the edge they need to stop the rolling Cardinals.

Prediction: Brewers in 6

Things I noticed: Week 4

Only two undefeated teams remain in the NFL and both reside in the NFC North.  How did the week go for the rest of the teams?

Here are some things I noticed this week:

• Cam Newton had another big yardage day in a losing effort.  He could go on to set all sorts of rookie records as long as his team keeps playing from behind.
• At least they showed signs of the running game finally getting going.  DeAngleo Williams (10 carries, 82 yards) and Jonathan Stewart (8 carries, 52 yards) both looked as good as they have all year.
• Matt Forte had a career day, rushing for 205 yards and a TD.  He also added another 23 yards on four catches.  Chicago didn't get much else out of it's offense, but as it turned out, they didn't need more.
• Devin Hester returned a punt 69 yards for a TD.  Not exactly newsworthy, considering how many times he's done that in his career, but the three somersaults he did in the endzone to celebrate was impressive.  The refs were so excited by it they reacted by throwing yellow flags joyously into the air.
• Buffalo finally lost a game after a last second FG dropped them to 3-1.  Just when you think the Bills are the new out of nowhere team to become a playoff contender, they go and lose to the Bengals.  
• Chris Johnson finally went over the 100 yard mark!  He hadn't totaled that amount through three games, but finally broke out with a 101 yard performance.  Now that he's gotten that out of the way, hopefully he won't look back and will actually continue this trend of earning that hefty new contract.
• The Cowboys blew another game in which they led by two scores in the 4th quarter.  Tony Romo, who had done so much over the past two weeks to change the impression others around the league have always had of him as a guy that can't deliver in the clutch, was back to his old ways again.  He threw three picks in the game, two of which were returned for TDs.
• Calvin Johnson appeared to be pretty well contained until he broke free for 2 TDs in the 4th quarter, including the game winner.  Megatron just can't be covered in the endzone.
• The Vikings have led in the second half of every game this season before blowing it in the 2nd half.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs just haven't been able to get started in any game.  Something had to give in this battle of winless teams.  The hometown Chiefs came through, as the Vikings blew another 2nd half lead.
• The Rams put a scare into the Redskins with a 4th quarter push, but came up short on their final drive.  Rex Grossman had a couple of 4th quarter turnovers that helped the Rams cause, but it wasn't quite enough to hand over the win to the quickly floundering Rams. 
• Even in the weak NFC West, there has to come a point where the hole is just too deep to crawl out of.  Maybe 0-4 isn't deep enough of a hole for this division, but it's getting close.
• The "Dream Team" from Philadelphia is off to a mind boggling 1-3 start.  Vick has been banged up, but at least he finished the game this week.  A team that was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender just can't lose games like this at home to inferior competition.
• The Eagles seemed poised to win the game, driving into 49ers territory, before a Jeremy Maclin fumble doomed their chances.  A couple of first downs later and the 49ers were able to run out the clock.
• Coming off an ankle injury and having lost his starting job for the week, things didn't appear to be going well for Frank Gore.  A 127 yard performance with a TD to top off leading his team to victory will do wonders to change that perception.
• A game changing moment came mid way through the 2nd quarter.  The Eagles had marched the ball down to the 1 yard line, where a TD was with in reach and a FG at the least seemed all but assured. Instead, Ronnie Brown fumbled at the goal line on a play where it appeared he was attempting to lateral the ball back to a teammate after it was clear he was going to be stuffed outside of the endzone. The bonehead play robbed the team of an easy FG in a game they eventually lost by 1 point.
• Drew Brees was hardly flawless, throwing a couple more sloppy INTs, but he did more than enough to out-duel the punch-less Jaguars.
• You would expect getting top receiver Marques Colston would give the team a boost, but his 1 catch for 8 yards was hardly a contribution.  Lucky for them, they didn't need more.
• The Texans hurt themselves with some big penalties that nearly cost them the game.  A blocked FG returned for a TD to end the first half was called back after an unnecessary block in the back that came nowhere near the ball.  On Pittsburgh's final drive, an INT that should have been returned for a game clinching TD was nullified by a late hit on the QB, giving the Steelers another chance to drive for the game typing score.  
• Arian Foster is back and he wants us to know his hamstring feels fine.  Good enough at least to rush 30 times for 155 yards.
• Andre Johnson left the game early with a hamstring injury.  It appeared worse when it happened, as he collapsed to the ground without being hit (never a good sign).  Hopefully it doesn't keep him out long.  The Texans struggled to move the ball after he left the game.  If not for Arian Foster breaking a big 42 yard TD run in the 4th quarter, the Texans would have essentially accomplished nothing after the injury to Johnson.
• Mike Wallace had a chance to tie a league record with a 7th straight 100+ yard receiving game (dating back to last season), but came up short with only 77 this week.
• The initial thought upon seeing it in the box score is that it must be a misprint when Tom Brady throws for only 226 yards in a game, but it was by no means a sign that he played poorly.  At least he didn't turn the ball over this week.
• Brady also added 2 passing TDs, passing Joe Montana for 9th place all time.
• Wes Welker was the man again for the Pats, hauling in 9 catches for 158 yards.  Brady spread the rest of his passes around, but Ochocinco's 2 receptions made him the only other Patriots receiver to catch more than one pass.
• Part of the reason for Brady's low yardage was because the Pats finally found some balance on offense with an effective running game.  Rookie Steven Ridley led the way (10 carries, 97 yards and a TD).  He showed impressive burst through the holes, particularly on his 33 yard TD run.  If he can prove capable of picking up the blitz and being an effective pass blocker, his role could expand.  Don't be surprised if he earns the starting spot before the season is over.
• After ripping through the Jets defense last week, Darren McFadden was held to only 75 rushing yards this week.  He did break free for a huge 41 yard gain, but take that away and he was generally held in check in a match up that looked like he could dominate.
•  Eli Manning led a Giants comeback that saw him throw 2 TD passes within the span of a minute in the 4th quarter.
• The go ahead score came with a bit of controversy, as the drive leading up to it included a 29 yard reception to Victor Cruz, who fell to the ground untouched before putting the ball on the ground.  The Cardinals argued it was a fumble since Cruz was never downed by contact, but the rule states the play is over when the player "declares himself down by falling to the ground, or kneeling, and making no effort to advance."  A confusing play that upon review still looks like a fumble no matter how you interpret the rule, but the play was whistled dead and therefore could not be reviewed.
• Beanie Wells shows the type of flash and skill that once made him a first round draft choice while rushing for 138 yards and 3 TDs.  If only he could look that good more often.  Or at least anything close to that good.
• Atlanta finally got a win on the road, but nearly blowing a 20 point second half lead to a terrible Seattle team isn't the way to show they are past their road issues.
• Julio Jones (11 catches, 127 yards) had the best game of his young carrier.  With opposing defenses locked in on trying to shut down Roddy White, Jones has a chance to be a lethal weapon. At least that's the thought the Falcons had when they sacrificed their future to get him.
• It won't quite match the impact of when he was named Super Bowl MVP, but statistically Aaron Rodgers had the best day of his career - 408 yards, 4 TDs and he added 2 rushing scores for good measure.
• Of course he'd blow up with a historical performance this week, when I'm facing him in my head-to-head fantasy football league.  Meanwhile, despite the huge passing numbers, JerMichael Finley (3 catches, 28 yards) barely contributed for my team.
• The Broncos dropped to 1-3 after barely putting up a fight against the Packers and Kyle Orton turned the ball over 2 times.  If they lose big again to the Chargers next week, could the team make the change to Tim Tebow following their Week 6 bye week?
• Speaking of the Chargers, they took care of business at home against the lowly Dolphins.  They got off to a bit of a slow start, but managed to pull away in the 2nd half.
• I think we can official say that Ryan Mathews (16 carries) has taken over as the lead back for the Chargers.  Mike Tolbert (6 carries, 1 for a TD) is still the short yardage/goal line back, while both RBs continue to be active in the passing game.
• Chad Henne left the game with a shoulder injury.  When news of the injury was reported during the Patriots game, nobody in the room full of people I watched the game with could think of who Miami's backup QB was.  Matt Moore was the answer, in case you're wondering.  Given his production in relief of the injured starter, there's not much reason to remember him.
• It's not often that you see a game with a score of 34-17 that included only 1 offensive TD between the two teams, but that's the kind of ugly game the Ravens and Jets gave us Sunday night. 
• The Jets only TDs came on a kick off return and an INT return.  The Ravens scored twice on fumbles and once on an INT.  Ray Rice rushed for the only offensive score of the game.
• Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez seemed to be trying to out-duel each other for worst performance of the game, as each played a sloppy game full of turnovers and other miscues. 
• One of the fumbles from Sanchez that was returned for a TD was close to being a "tuck rule" play, which Tom Brady made famous 10 years ago.  The Jets challenged, but replay showed Sanchez's arm hadn't started forward yet.  Rex Ryan was so enraged by the call that he burned another time out before the extra point kick just to give him extra time to scream at the ref.  Wasting 2 timeouts in the second half of a game that you trail?  Brilliant!
•  ESPN pulled the "Are you ready for some football?" theme from their Monday Night Football intro after Hank Williams Jr. made some comments comparing President Obama to Adolf Hitler.  No matter your political opinions, that's a little harsh.  That song was pretty catchy though.  I'll miss it.
• The NFL had to be kicking themselves for scheduling so many night games for the Colts without knowing that Peyton Manning would be out, but the Colts have actually been at their best when in the spotlight of the nationally televised games.  They put a scare into the Steelers in Week 3, then followed that up with a tight game on Monday night against the Bucs.  They didn't win either game, but they at least made it exciting and worthy of the prime time spot.
• Curtis Painter made his first career start for the Colts.  He found out the hard way that starting in the NFL isn't quite the same as the mop up duty he's been used to, but after a shaky start he recovered to have a respectable performance that kept his team in the game.
• People seem to forget given that the loss of Manning has been such a big blow to the Colts, but this offense still has a lot of talent, with guys like Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clarke capable of making plays.  Pierre Garcon isn't the most consistent guy, but he's capable of blowing up for a big game at any time, as was the case this week (146 yards, 2 TDs).
• Legarrette Blount is a guy that just gets better the more carries he gets.  He can disappear at times when the team is behind because he's essentially useless in the passing game, but late in a game when you need to pound the ball, he's at his best.  He was on his way to a fairly mediocre game until a 4th quarter drive when he piled up 52 of his 127 yards, sealing the drive with a 35 yard TD run to put the Bucs on top for good.
• The Baltimore Ravens lead all teams in point differential (+62), thanks in part to also leading the league in forced turnovers (14).
• The top two leaders in scoring (Green Bay, Detroit) also happen to be the only undefeated teams in the league.  8 of the top 10 teams in scoring have at least 3 wins so far.  Only half of the top 10 teams that have allowed the least points per game this year have winning records. Who needs defense?
• Dating back to last season, the Lions have won an NFL best 8 consecutive games.  So yes, they are for real.
  

MLB Playoffs: Divisional Series

The MLB postseason begins tonight with the American League teams kicking off the Divisional round.  There's nothing more intense than October baseball, a time when heroes are made and scapegoats are forever vilified.  The pressure can be suffocating, with every pitch, every swing, every catch capable of taking your breath away.  It's an adrenaline rush like no other, and it begins now.

Picking postseason winners is never an easy task because you never know how teams will perform under the bright lights of the big stage.  The team with the best record rarely wins the World Series and the hottest team over the final weeks of the regular season is far from a lock either, as history has shown.

With that in mind, I'll attempt to make my postseason predictions, then sit back and wait to be surprised.

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays enter the postseason on a magical run that saw them erase a 9 game deficit in early September to come back and clinch the Wild Card on the final day of the season.  Their momentum and confidence is riding high, but they've been in a must win playoff mode for the past week and eventually that has to wear on them.  With a postseason start on the line, they were forced to pitch their top starters in the series finale against the Yankees.  They'll turn to rookie phenom Matt Moore for Game 1.  The September call up has a bright future, but he's pitched just over 9 full innings in the majors, including 1 start.  That's a lot to put on a young kid with so little big league experience.  The Rangers will have the luxury of starting ace CJ Wilson in Game 1, giving them a huge advantage out of the gate. 

The Rays win with pitching and defense, but their rotation depth is negated in a short series and there are some question marks in their bullpen (would you trust Kyle Farnsworth in the 9th inning of a playoff game?).  They had some clutch hits down the stretch, particularly from Evan Longoria, but the fact remains that they hit only .244 as a team for the season (only Seattle was worse in the AL), a far cry from the Rangers league leading .283.  The Rangers hit well at home, where the series will begin, and the Rays don't seem to have enough firepower to keep up.  With Wilson able to go twice in this series and the Rays potentially only able to use Shields and Price once, the pitching should be relatively even, so the Rangers big edge with the bats puts them ahead.
Prediction: Rangers in 4

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers
Game 1 will feature a match up between two aces that likely will finish as the top two in AL Cy Young voting, with Justin Verlander taking the mound against CC Sabathia.  No team would be excited to have to face Verlander twice in a 5 game series, but if any team is built to match up with the Tigers, it's the Yankees.  Sabathia will give his team as good a chance as any at beating Verlander.

The problem is, what happens to the Yankees if they don't win with Sabathia on the mound?  The rest of the Yankees rotation behind him is questionable.  They'll avoid starting AJ Burnett at all costs in this series, but how much faith can they really put in Ian Nova and Freddy Garcia?  Perhaps Bartolo Colon can get another shot of stem cells to boost him back to the level he was at earlier this season.  Otherwise, the Yankees are in big trouble if they lose Game 1.  After Verlander, the Tigers will use Doug Fister, who has been a savior for their rotation depth since being acquired mid-season from Seattle (8-1, 1.79 ERA with Detroit).  He'll be followed by Max Scherzer, who despite bouts of wildness and inconsistency, is capable of shutting down an opposing lineup at any time.  Hope is not lost for Detroit if Verlander can't get the job done in both of his starts this series.  I'm not convinced the Yankees can say the same about Sabathia.

The edge that the Yankees do hold is on offense, but it's not as big of a difference as you might expect.  The Yankees were second in the league in runs this year, but Detroit surprisingly was 4th.  Miguel Cabrera is an MVP candidate, and we can all remember the impact he had as a young rookie during the Marlins World Series run back in 2003.  The Yankees are loaded with high priced talent of their own, but many of the stars in their lineup have historically failed to shine on the big stage of October (A-Rod, Teixeria, Cano). 

The Yankees are capable of shortening any game knowing they have the reliable Mariano Rivera and his All-Star set-up man David Robertson lurking in the bullpen, but Detroit's underrated late inning combo of Valverde and Benoit is just as capable.  Plus, the Yankees will need to rely on their starters getting to the 8th inning with a lead for that to be a factor anyway, which I'm skeptical of happening three times in this series.  The Yankees may be heavily favored because, well, they're the Yankees, but Detroit's pitching will carry them to the next round.
Prediction: Tigers in 4

Note: while I may have predicted both teams to lose, part of me would like to see the Yankees and Rays both advance to the ALCS.  I'd like nothing more than the Yankees to be eliminated from the postseason by the Rays, the team they handed a postseason spot to on the season's final day (blowing a 7 run lead, benching starters and refusing to use Mo in a 1 run 9th?  Come on!).  Remember a couple years ago when the Bengals rested their starters in Week 17 to allow the Jets to get into the playoffs, then they lost to that same Jets team a week later in the first round of the NFL playoffs?  New York will be on the opposite end of that this time.  Karma will come back to bite them and the Yankees will be wishing they had the chance to eliminate the Rays when the had the chance.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
The Brew Crew went all in to win this year, knowing it's likely to be Prince Fielder's last year before he departs for a big free agent contract.  Their urgency led them to strip the farm system to trade for Zack Grienke and Shaun Marcum, to team with Yovani Gallardo to form a formidable trio.  The problem is that the team is so terrified of how the former Cy Young winner Grienke will react under the intense pressure of the postseason that they are pushing him back to Game 3.  Take the uncertainty in their rotation and add in one of the league's worst defenses and that's not a recipe for success in the postseason.

The Diamondbacks are the surprise team of the season, making a worst to first turn around to capture the NL West division.  Ian Kennedy and Dan Hudson give them a chance to win in each of their starts, as it's hard to give a significant edge to any of the Brewers pitchers over either of the youngsters.  Kennedy (21 wins, 2.88 ERA) may be the best pitcher in the series.  He'll help keep the Diamondbacks in the series.

The Brewers will need their offense to win this series.  Lucky for them, they have two of the leagues best sluggers in Prince Fielder and MVP candidate Ryan Braun.  They may be the league's most formidable duo, plus the supporting cast, including Corey Hart and energizer Nyjer Morgan, is plenty potent.  Justin Upton gives the D-Backs an MVP candidate of their own, but he needs more help.  The frustrating Chris Young is a 20/20 guy with solid run production, but hit only .236.  He's a streaky hitter that could help carry the team or derail it.
Prediction: Brewers in 5

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals
If the postseason is all about pitching then it's hard to argue against the Phillies, who have the ability with their fearsome foursome to put an ace on the mound in every game this series.  The combined ERA of those four starters was 2.69 for the season.  That's better than the top starter for most teams!

On the other hand, we can't be too quick to discount a lineup that features Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman.  That's a tough trio to deal with for any pitching staff.  Pujols will be a free agent this off-season.  Coming off a disappointing season (by his high standards), he'll be looking to put on a show in October to make up for it and prove he's still the game's most feared hitter (just ask Brad Lidge, he still hasn't recovered from a Pujols postseason home run).

The Phillies lineup was once feared as much as their pitching, but the rapid declines of the overrated Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins has taken some of the shine off of them.  Shane Victorino has been the one carrying the offense, and mid-season pick up Hunter Pence has given them a much needed boost.  Their lineup is solid enough to support a dominant pitching staff.
Prediction: Phillies in 4

MLB Season Awards

The 2011 MLB regular season came to an exciting finish last night, as the Wild Card races in each league came down to game number 162.  With the regular season in the books it's time to look back and reflect on the accomplishments of the league's elite.  While the regular season awards won't officially be announced for a few weeks, now is our time to make our own predictions.

AL MVP
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (.321 AVG, .376 OBP, .552 SLG, 32 HR, 105 RBI, 39 SB, 16.8 UZR, 9.6 WAR)
2. Jose Bautista     (.302 AVG, .447 OBP, .608 SLG, 43 HR, 103 RBI, 9 SB, -10.2 UZR*, 8.4 WAR)
3. Justin Verlander (251.0 IP, 24 W, 2.40 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 8.96 K/9, 2.99 FIP, 7.0 WAR)

Ellsbury followed up a frustrating injury plagued season that deprived him of all but 18 uneventful games last year with a career season.  He ranked in the top 10 in the league in AVG, SLG, HR, RBI, and SB while leading the majors in WAR.  While he isn't quite the imposing slugger that Bautista is, it's important to note that these are two very different hitters.  While Bautista is supposed to put up big time power numbers hitting in the middle of the lineup, Ellsbury surprised many with his power surge from the lead off spot.  Bautista's OBP also benefited from pitchers having the luxury of pitching around him, while they couldn't afford to do that to Ellsbury, with elite hitters like Pedroia, Gonzalez and Ortiz hitting behind him.  The league leading HR, SLG and OPS numbers put up by Joey Bats are impressive nonetheless, and likely will earn him the Hank Aaron award, but he falls short in the MVP race.  I'm not a believer in the theory that a player from a losing team should be excluded from consideration for an individual award, so the Blue Jays record isn't held against him in my opinion.  However, Ellsbury's production while attempting to carry the Red Sox to a playoff spot does earn him some points.  The Sox came up just short, but that's by no fault of their lead off hitter, who was one of the game's best hitters down the stretch. 

I'll also point out that the MVP award doesn't just factor in hitting (otherwise Bautista likely would win).  Ellsbury is by far the superior base runner and defender.  Ellsbury played a more demanding position in centerfield and did so while rating as the second best defensive outfielder in the majors with a UZR of 16.8.  Bautista, on the other hand, spent the majority of his time playing below average defensively in right field.  He also spent some time at third base, where his advanced metrics don't rate him nearly as poorly (hence the asterik above), but it's a small sample size, and nobody that watched him play the position would mistake him for an elite defender at the hot corner.  Ellsbury's all around game, as well as his ability to light a spark at the top of the league's most lethal offense, push him a step above Bautista.

As for Verlander, there is likely to be a controversial debate over whether pitchers should even be considered for the award.  There are those that consider the Cy Young to be the pitching equivalent of the award and therefore refuse to vote for a pitcher.  That line of thinking is wrong, as the rules specifically state that pitchers should be considered.  However, it's difficult to compare the value of a pitcher in relation to a hitter due to the disparity in the number of games they impact.  While Ellsbury's contributions were spread over 158 games played, Verlander appeared in only 34.  While he was certainly dominant in those appearances, it would take a historically dominant performance to push a pitcher to the top of the list.  Verlander comes close, but as good as he was this season, he doesn't come close to the season Pedro Martinez had in '99 (when he was robbed by 2 voters that left him off the ballot) or Roger Clemens in '86 (the last starting pitcher to win the MVP award).  It's true that the Tigers wouldn't come close to a spot in the postseason without their ace, while the loaded Red Sox lineup would manage to get by without Ellsbury, but that underestimates the value Ellsbury adds to his team.  Ellsbury's league leading WAR measures him above Verlander, who is limited to the number of wins he can contribute due to lack of opportunities.  Not that it's his falut by any means, it's just another reason why hitters and pitchers are so difficult to compare.  The debate will rage on until the MVP award is more clearly defined, but while it's still open to interpretation and we have no clear way of comparing the value of hitters and pitchers, my vote goes to Ellsbury.

AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander (251.0 IP, 24 W, 2.40 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 8.96 K/9, 2.99 FIP, 7.0 WAR)
2. CC Sabathia      (237.1 IP, 19 W, 3.00 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.72 K/9, 2.88 FIP, 7.2 WAR)
3. Jered Weaver    (235.2 IP, 18 W, 2.41 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 7.56 K/9, 3.20 FIP, 5.6 WAR)

Not much of a debate here, as Verlander was the only pitcher that was even considered in the MVP discussion.  He should cruise through the Cy Young voting (although it will be interesting to see if a few NY writers try to make a case for Sabathia).  Verlander beats Sabathia in just about every category, except for a slight edge CC holds in FIP, which explains his slightly higher WAR.  Sabathia's case is strengthened by the fact that he plays in a much more extreme hitters park as well as a loaded AL East division, but it's not enough to push him passed Verlander.

Weaver had a strong case as the ERA leader for most of the season, but he struggled in a few starts down the stretch, which allowed Verlander to pass him for the lead, taking away Weaver's only real advantage.

NL MVP
1. Matt Kemp   (.324 AVG, .399 OBP, .586 SLG, 39 HR, 126 RBI, 40 SB, -4.3 UZR, 8.7 WAR)
2. Ryan Braun   (.332 AVG, .397 OBP, .597 SLG, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 33 SB, -4.8 UZR, 7.8 WAR)
3. Justin Upton  (.289 AVG, .369 OBP, .529 SLG, 31 HR, 88 RBI, 21 SB, 8.2 UZR, 6.5 WAR)

This is another tough debate, with Kemp and Braun having very similar numbers across the board.  Kemp just misses winning the NL Triple Crown, which likely would have made him a shoe in for the award despite his team's record.  He finished 3rd in AVG behind Braun and Jose Reyes, which opens the debate a bit more.  Kemp has a slight edge in most other categories.  True, Bruan's team will advance to the postseason, while Kemp's Dodgers struggled to stay above .500, but the case against Braun is that he might not even be the best hitter on his own team.  Prince Fielder put up superior offensive numbers to both players, but his poor base running and defensive skills drop him just outside of this MVP debate.  Kemp and Bruan are both below average defenders by most advanced metrics, but over the course of their careers Kemp has proven to be the better defender, so he gets the benefit of the doubt.  At times he can appear distracted (honestly, who wouldn't be with the mess going on with that team) which can lead to occasional miscues that drag down his defensive metrics, but he still rates better than Braun, who the Brewers stuck in left field to hide his defensive short comings after he failed miserably as a third baseman.  It essentially comes down to a coin flip between the two sluggers, but I'm leaning towards Kemp.  If he doesn't win the award, we can just add that to the list of things we can blame Frank McCourt for.

As for Upton, he deserves some mention for carrying a young Diamondbacks team to a surprising NL West division title.  His offensive numbers fall short of the two studs above him in this race, but his improved defense gives him an edge in at least one category.

NL Cy Young
1. Clayton Kershaw   (233.1 IP, 21 W, 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9.57 K/9, 2.47 FIP, 6.8 WAR)
2. Roy Halladay         (233.2 IP, 19 W, 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 8.47 K/9, 2.20 FIP, 8.2 WAR)
3. Cliff Lee                 (232.2 IP, 17 W, 2.40, 1.03 WHIP, 9.21 K/9, 2.60 FIP, 6.8 WAR)

In the National League the Cy Young race is much more open for debate, as there is no Justin Verlander type season to run away with the award.  You can pretty much pick any Phillies pitcher and toss them in the mix, along with the Dodger's Clayton Kershaw.  Kid K blows away the rest of the group in strikeouts, which helps limit the number of base runners and gives him the lowest WHIP on the list.  The less balls that go into play, the less chance of a ball falling in for a hit.  It will be tough for voters to keep the award away from a pitcher that wins the pitching equivalent of the Triple Crown (leading in W, ERA and K's), despite that some of the advanced metrics seem to favor Halladay.  This is due in part to Kershaw playing in a pitchers park while Halladay and Lee both call one of the league's better hitting parks home.  I'm tempted to go with Halladay because of the advanced stats, and still feel like he's the game's best pitcher, but I'll go with Kershaw.  Voters will likely be swayed by the rare Triple Crown accomplishment, and Halladay may split some votes with Lee amongst Phillies supporters.  Plus, how great would it be if the MVP and Cy Young winners both came from a team that won only 82 games?

AL Rookie of the Year
1. Jeremy Hellickson
2. Mark Trumbo
3. Eric Hosmer

Desmond Jennings would have had a chance to steal the award with his impressive second half campaign, but he didn't play enough games to qualify for my vote.  Instead, I'm picking his teammate, Jeremy Hellickson.  Despite the rookie label, the Rays starter was arguably one of the AL's 10 best starters.  Sure, his 2.95 ERA and .210 opponent's batting average against may have been helped by his home park and outstanding defensive play behind him, but that doesn't take away how important he has been as a reliable part of the Rays playoff bound rotation.

NL Rookie of the Year
1. Craig Kimbrall
2. Freedie Freeman
3. Danny Espinosa

Reliever's often don't get a lot of credit in these award races because of the minimal innings they pitch, but it's hard to overlook a rookie that tied for the league lead in saves while boasting a 2.10 ERA and ridiculous 14.84 K/9.  He ran out of gas down the stretch, but that can be blamed on a manager that overworked his top bullpen guys all season long.  Kimbrall's 77 innings was more than any other closer in the majors.  He should be considered as the top player at his position in the NL, which is something none of these other rookies can come close to saying.

AL Manager of the Year
1. Joe Madden
2. Jim Layland
3. Ron Washington

Hard to pick anyone ahead of Madden after his team just made one of the all time great comebacks to earn a playoff spot.  Granted, that had a lot more to do with the Red Sox collapse than anything Tampa did, but the Rays do deserve credit for getting the job done when the opportunity was handed to them.  In a season after he lost stars like Crawford, Soriano and Garza, he still managed to plug in new pieces and hardly miss a beat.  Plus, with stories about his infamous theme days where he gets players to dress up on road trips (my favorite was the pajamas), who wouldn't want to play for him?

NL Manager of the Year
1. Kirk Gibson
2. Charlie Manual
3. Ron Roenicke

Who would have ever thought the Diamondbacks would come away with the NL West division title?  The same team that lost 97 games last year.  Sure, the injury to Buster Posey helped derail the season for the defending champion Giants, the Dodgers were sunk by the mess of their owner's divorce, and the Rockies mysteriously digressed, but give credit to a young Diamondback's team for taking advantage of the opening.  In turn, their manager deserves credit for rallying the troops and pushing them to what some may consider a season of over achievement.  Or perhaps it's young players like Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy finally making the jump to elite status and carrying the club.  Still, we'll give some credit to the manager too.

Things I noticed: Week 3

The first couple weeks of the NFL season have shown us a record setting pace for passing yardage across the league.  Would the trend continue, or are defenses finally catching up?

Here are some things that I noticed this week.

• The Bills legitimized their fast start to the season with a shocking upset against the Patriots, their first against New England in their last 16 meetings.  Buffalo erased a 21 point deficit, sealing the victory with a FG as time expired.
• The Bills were aided by a bogus unnecessary roughness call against New England in the game's final minute.   Ryan Fitzpatrick fumbled the snap, leading to a pile up where the Patriots believed they had come away with the ball.  None of the Bills players seemed all that confident that they hadn't lost the ball.  Luckily for them, the refs seemed to ignore the fact a fumble ever occurred, instead throwing a flag for contact after they assumed the play was over.  With the ball loose the Patriots players should have been allowed to jump into the pile for it.  To top off the botched call, the refs reported the penalty on a player (Logan Mankins) that wasn't even on the field!  The penalty gave the Bills a first down, which allowed them to run the clock all the way down before they kicked the game winning FG.
• Tom Brady, who threw 4 INTs all of last season, threw 4 of them in this game, one of which was returned for a TD.  Despite another big yardage day, Tom was far from terrific today, so maybe he won't run away with the MVP race after all.
• In his defense, two of those INTs were on tipped passes, and another can be blamed on the poor route taken by Ochocinco.  So his poor play wasn't entirely his fault.
• Wes Welker caught 16 passes for a career high 217 yards and two TDs.  So at least someone played well for the Patriots this week.  Entering the game, Welker had never topped 100 yards or scored a TD against Buffalo in his career.
• It looked like a battle between FG kickers in Cincinnati until Kendall Hunter finally scored the game's first TD with about 4 minutes left in the game.  
• Aside from the TD, Hunter didn't impress much with his 2.9 yards per carry, but it was better than Gore's 2.5 average.  As poorly as Gore has played, it might not take much for him to start losing carries to Hunter.  Gore also injured his ankle in the game, which could factor in depending on the severity of the injury.
• Andy Dalton had gotten off to a good start in his rookie season, but he failed to come through in what looked to be a winnable game.  157 yards and 2 INTs isn't going to get it done, even against the 49ers.
• Colt McCoy connected with Mohamed Massaquoi for the game winning TD with under a minute remaining.  Miami once again finds a way to give games away.
• Cleveland won despite playing without Madden 12 cover boy, Peyton Hillis.  Which means this week they were exempt from the Madden Curse.
• The Titans rallied to beat Denver, but it came at the price of losing Kenny Britt to an ugly knee injury (torn ACL, MCL) that caused him to carted off the field.  Looks like a season ending injury for the promising young star.
• As for the most overpaid running back in the league?  Chris Johnson rushed 13 times for a miserable 21 yards.  At least he added 54 receiving yards, including a key 34 yard catch on 3rd down that helped set up their first TD.
• The Lions are off to a 3-0 start for the first time in over 30 years after beating the Vikings with a FG in overtime.  
• Matthew Stafford (378 yards) continued his great rapport with Calvin Johnson (108 yards), connecting with him for both of his TD passes.
• For the 3rd straight week, the Vikings gave up a lead in the second half.  Adrian Peterson, who dominated in the first half (73 yards and a TD), hardly touched the ball in the second half.
• How much longer until McNabb loses his job as the starting QB?  If rookie Christian Ponder is showing any sign of talent in practice then it may be sooner rather than later.
• Drew Brees erupted in the 4th quarter, leading 3 TD drives, including one that ended with a 13 yard TD run by Mark Ingram to put the Saints ahead for good in this good old fashioned shoot out with the Texans.
• With Arian Foster out again with a nagging hamstring injury, Ben Tate had a chance to become only the 2nd RB in history to rush for over 100 yards in each of his first three career starts.  He came up short, with only 82 yards, but has shown enough already to give the Texans confidence that their ground attack will be just fine even without the league's reigning rushing leader.
• For the second straight week, Michael Vick left the game early with an injury.  It was questionable whether he should have been out there to begin with after suffering a concussion last week, but it was a broken right hand that forced him out this time.  The lefty says he'll try to be back on the field next week, but it will be a week long question mark hanging over the Eagles once again.
• The Giants took advantage of Vick's absence to get a big win in Philadelphia.  Given the injuries that depleted the Giants secondary early in the season, who would have thought they'd lead the Eagles in the standings at any point this year?  Thanks to the injury to Vick, that's the case for now.
• In a related note, football is a dangerous game.  
• With injuries limiting the depth of the Giants receiving corps, Victor Cruz stepped up to be the hero with a game high 110 yards and 2 TDs.  His first was a 74 yard catch and run that demonstrated some of the worst tackling you'll ever see from the Eagles defense.  Apparently Asomugha is thrown at so infrequently that he's forgotten how to tackle.
• Cam Newton's run of 400+ passing yard games came to an end, but he did get his first career victory.  I'm pretty sure he'll take that trade off.
• Maurice Jones-Drew (167 total yards) is the lone bright spot on the Jacksonville offense. Without him it would be a wonder if they ever managed to move the ball.
• The Tampa Bay Bucs withstood a Falcon's rally to hold on for a big win at home.  Josh Freeman had a very underwhelming day, but he made some key plays with his legs to run for first downs and even ran one in for a score.
• Atlanta got behind early, which pretty much took Michael Turner out of the game early considering he's next to useless in passing situations.  Matt Ryan did his best to help make up for it, with Roddy White and Julio Jones both going over the 100 yard mark, while the reliable veteran Tony Gonzalez added a TD catch.
• Well, the Chiefs didn't get blown out this week, so that's an improvement.  After losing their first two games by a combined 79 points, Kansas City showed some signs off life by scoring 17 second half points to close the gap with the Chargers.  Sure, they still lost, but it's a start.
• The Chiefs are terrified of giving too many touches to 170 pound Dexter McCluster, but when the alternative is handing off to the ancient Thomas Jones, I think it may be beneficial to feed him the ball a bit more.  With Jamaal Charles out for the season, McCluster is their most explosive weapon.
• Speaking of running back duos, I thought the Chargers were supposed to have a split in their backfield, but it was Ryan Mathews (21 carries, 98 yards) carrying the load in favor of Mike Tolbert (4 carries, 19 yards).  If Mathews can stay healthy and keep up that kind of production then he'll have a chance to keep the bigger role in this time share.
• The Raiders battered Mark Sanchez, sacking him 4 times (and they all looked painful), in their upset win over the Jets.  
• So wait, if the Jets lost... and the Pats lost... so are you telling me that the Buffalo Bills are in first place in the AFC East??  That removes a bit of the luster from the whole New York/New England rivalry.  I'm going to need some time to let this sink in.
• Oakland appears to be one of the few teams left in the league capable of still running the ball in this pass wacky era we live in.  If you're going to move the ball against the Jets, with their tandem of Revis and Cromartie shutting down every receiver that comes their way, you have to be able to effectively run the ball.  Darren McFadden got the memo, rushing for 171 yards and a couple of TDs.
• It was like a bad case of deja vu for the Rams, as every time they looked they were getting burned by Torrey Smith for a TD.  He caught three of them in the first quarter on his way to a 152 yard receiving day as the Ravens blew out the Rams.
• That was nice of the Ravens to let the Rams get on the scoreboard in the second half so they could go home feeling good about themselves.  Or as good as they could feel after getting crushed by 30 points.
• Actually the one score the Rams did get was a beauty.  Sam Bradford, on the run, unleashed a rocket that found Brandon Gibson, who did an impressive job of his own to come down with his feet in the endzone.
• Ray Rice had a decent day when you combine his yardage through the ground and air (162 total yards), but his fantasy owners (including yours truly) can't be happy that Joe Flacco had more rushing attempts (9) than Rice did (8) in a game the Ravens led the entire way.
• The Seahawks took the lead after a gutsy headfirst dive into the endzone by Tavaris Jackson.  If Michael Vick made the same play we'd be questioning his decision making for taking such a risk, but when Jackson does it... great play!  Probably because had he gotten injured on the play, would the Seahawks really be losing much?
• Remember before the season when some people questioned whether Kevin Kolb could be a legit starting QB?  Losing to Seattle while throwing more INTs than TDs makes those people smile.
• JerMichael Finely was a beast, hauling in 3 TD catches in the Packers win in Chicago.  You could argue Finely is their most dangerous receiving option and this team just won a Super Bowl without him!  
• Just when it looked like James Starks had stolen away the role of lead running back in the Packers offense, he hands it back to Ryan Grant on a silver platter.  His 11 carries for a miserable 5 yards was a far cry from Grant's 17 carry, 92 yard performance.  Grant, who missed almost all of last season with a knee injury, is only a year removed from back-to-back 1,200 yard rushing seasons.  Don't forget about him.
• Poor Jay Cutler.  When he had the chance to try to lead a comeback for the Bears, the refs missed a blatant pass interference call that otherwise could have led to a long TD reception.  Then Johnny Knox drops a perfectly thrown pass for what would have been another big gain.  Sure, he still struggled and threw a couple more INTs in the game, but it should have been a lot better than it looked.
• What's up with these Sunday Night games being so exciting?  For the third straight week the SNF game came down to the wire.  The Manning-less Colts didn't appear to have a chance against the defending AFC Champion, but they put a scare into the Steelers, who finally put the Colts away with a FG in the last few seconds of the game.
• The Steelers appeared to be on their way to dominating the game early until they temporarily fell apart near the end of the half.  Their two minute drill was a disaster, as a Ben Roethlisberger fumble was returned for a TD.  He then threw an INT that set up a Colts FG just before halftime.  10 points in about 90 seconds and suddenly the Colts were back in the game.
• Kerry Collins was knocked out of the game with a concussion.  Curtis Painter took his place and after some early struggles, managed to put together a few drives that gave his team a chance to win.  It will go down as another loss, but it's the best this team has looked all year.
• Playing with broken ribs, Tony Romo didn't have much to work with on Monday night, but somehow managed to pull off a win against their rival Redskins.  The win was the first home opening victory for Dallas since they moved into their new mega stadium three years ago.
• Miles Austin missed the game with injury and Dez Bryant was limited due to an injury of his own.  That left the Cowboys with a group of inexperienced receivers, and it showed.  Romo repeatedly showed his frustration as receivers messed up their routes.  On top of that, his center snapped the ball early at least 4 times, leading to broken plays and stalled drives.  
• Felix Jones had a big game (115 yards) that included several big plays, including a run for 40 yards and another for 29.  Before that, Dallas hadn't had a running play for over 10 yards all season.
• The winning drive for Dallas came after Romo converted an unlikely 3rd and 21 by connecting with Dez Bryant.  For reasons known only to them, Washington sent an 8 man blitz on the play, leaving Bryant single covered for a 30 yard gain (which was made worse by a facemask penalty that tacked on another 15 yards).  Had the Redskins not blitzed and instead held more defenders back in coverage they likely would have prevented Dallas from converting.  Their poor play calling put the Cowboys in range for the game winning FG.
• Since 1990, when the current playoff format was adopted, 76% of teams that started the season 3-0 have gone on to make the playoffs.  The teams that got there this week - Green Bay, Detroit, and Buffalo.  Raise your hand if you picked all three of those teams to be the last remaining undefeated teams at this point in the season.  Ok, but your hands down, liars.
• Buffalo and Detroit are tied for the longest postseason draughts, with neither team making the playoffs since 1999.  So if they both make it, does that mean we get to party like it's 1999?