MLB Season Awards

The 2011 MLB regular season came to an exciting finish last night, as the Wild Card races in each league came down to game number 162.  With the regular season in the books it's time to look back and reflect on the accomplishments of the league's elite.  While the regular season awards won't officially be announced for a few weeks, now is our time to make our own predictions.

AL MVP
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (.321 AVG, .376 OBP, .552 SLG, 32 HR, 105 RBI, 39 SB, 16.8 UZR, 9.6 WAR)
2. Jose Bautista     (.302 AVG, .447 OBP, .608 SLG, 43 HR, 103 RBI, 9 SB, -10.2 UZR*, 8.4 WAR)
3. Justin Verlander (251.0 IP, 24 W, 2.40 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 8.96 K/9, 2.99 FIP, 7.0 WAR)

Ellsbury followed up a frustrating injury plagued season that deprived him of all but 18 uneventful games last year with a career season.  He ranked in the top 10 in the league in AVG, SLG, HR, RBI, and SB while leading the majors in WAR.  While he isn't quite the imposing slugger that Bautista is, it's important to note that these are two very different hitters.  While Bautista is supposed to put up big time power numbers hitting in the middle of the lineup, Ellsbury surprised many with his power surge from the lead off spot.  Bautista's OBP also benefited from pitchers having the luxury of pitching around him, while they couldn't afford to do that to Ellsbury, with elite hitters like Pedroia, Gonzalez and Ortiz hitting behind him.  The league leading HR, SLG and OPS numbers put up by Joey Bats are impressive nonetheless, and likely will earn him the Hank Aaron award, but he falls short in the MVP race.  I'm not a believer in the theory that a player from a losing team should be excluded from consideration for an individual award, so the Blue Jays record isn't held against him in my opinion.  However, Ellsbury's production while attempting to carry the Red Sox to a playoff spot does earn him some points.  The Sox came up just short, but that's by no fault of their lead off hitter, who was one of the game's best hitters down the stretch. 

I'll also point out that the MVP award doesn't just factor in hitting (otherwise Bautista likely would win).  Ellsbury is by far the superior base runner and defender.  Ellsbury played a more demanding position in centerfield and did so while rating as the second best defensive outfielder in the majors with a UZR of 16.8.  Bautista, on the other hand, spent the majority of his time playing below average defensively in right field.  He also spent some time at third base, where his advanced metrics don't rate him nearly as poorly (hence the asterik above), but it's a small sample size, and nobody that watched him play the position would mistake him for an elite defender at the hot corner.  Ellsbury's all around game, as well as his ability to light a spark at the top of the league's most lethal offense, push him a step above Bautista.

As for Verlander, there is likely to be a controversial debate over whether pitchers should even be considered for the award.  There are those that consider the Cy Young to be the pitching equivalent of the award and therefore refuse to vote for a pitcher.  That line of thinking is wrong, as the rules specifically state that pitchers should be considered.  However, it's difficult to compare the value of a pitcher in relation to a hitter due to the disparity in the number of games they impact.  While Ellsbury's contributions were spread over 158 games played, Verlander appeared in only 34.  While he was certainly dominant in those appearances, it would take a historically dominant performance to push a pitcher to the top of the list.  Verlander comes close, but as good as he was this season, he doesn't come close to the season Pedro Martinez had in '99 (when he was robbed by 2 voters that left him off the ballot) or Roger Clemens in '86 (the last starting pitcher to win the MVP award).  It's true that the Tigers wouldn't come close to a spot in the postseason without their ace, while the loaded Red Sox lineup would manage to get by without Ellsbury, but that underestimates the value Ellsbury adds to his team.  Ellsbury's league leading WAR measures him above Verlander, who is limited to the number of wins he can contribute due to lack of opportunities.  Not that it's his falut by any means, it's just another reason why hitters and pitchers are so difficult to compare.  The debate will rage on until the MVP award is more clearly defined, but while it's still open to interpretation and we have no clear way of comparing the value of hitters and pitchers, my vote goes to Ellsbury.

AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander (251.0 IP, 24 W, 2.40 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 8.96 K/9, 2.99 FIP, 7.0 WAR)
2. CC Sabathia      (237.1 IP, 19 W, 3.00 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.72 K/9, 2.88 FIP, 7.2 WAR)
3. Jered Weaver    (235.2 IP, 18 W, 2.41 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 7.56 K/9, 3.20 FIP, 5.6 WAR)

Not much of a debate here, as Verlander was the only pitcher that was even considered in the MVP discussion.  He should cruise through the Cy Young voting (although it will be interesting to see if a few NY writers try to make a case for Sabathia).  Verlander beats Sabathia in just about every category, except for a slight edge CC holds in FIP, which explains his slightly higher WAR.  Sabathia's case is strengthened by the fact that he plays in a much more extreme hitters park as well as a loaded AL East division, but it's not enough to push him passed Verlander.

Weaver had a strong case as the ERA leader for most of the season, but he struggled in a few starts down the stretch, which allowed Verlander to pass him for the lead, taking away Weaver's only real advantage.

NL MVP
1. Matt Kemp   (.324 AVG, .399 OBP, .586 SLG, 39 HR, 126 RBI, 40 SB, -4.3 UZR, 8.7 WAR)
2. Ryan Braun   (.332 AVG, .397 OBP, .597 SLG, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 33 SB, -4.8 UZR, 7.8 WAR)
3. Justin Upton  (.289 AVG, .369 OBP, .529 SLG, 31 HR, 88 RBI, 21 SB, 8.2 UZR, 6.5 WAR)

This is another tough debate, with Kemp and Braun having very similar numbers across the board.  Kemp just misses winning the NL Triple Crown, which likely would have made him a shoe in for the award despite his team's record.  He finished 3rd in AVG behind Braun and Jose Reyes, which opens the debate a bit more.  Kemp has a slight edge in most other categories.  True, Bruan's team will advance to the postseason, while Kemp's Dodgers struggled to stay above .500, but the case against Braun is that he might not even be the best hitter on his own team.  Prince Fielder put up superior offensive numbers to both players, but his poor base running and defensive skills drop him just outside of this MVP debate.  Kemp and Bruan are both below average defenders by most advanced metrics, but over the course of their careers Kemp has proven to be the better defender, so he gets the benefit of the doubt.  At times he can appear distracted (honestly, who wouldn't be with the mess going on with that team) which can lead to occasional miscues that drag down his defensive metrics, but he still rates better than Braun, who the Brewers stuck in left field to hide his defensive short comings after he failed miserably as a third baseman.  It essentially comes down to a coin flip between the two sluggers, but I'm leaning towards Kemp.  If he doesn't win the award, we can just add that to the list of things we can blame Frank McCourt for.

As for Upton, he deserves some mention for carrying a young Diamondbacks team to a surprising NL West division title.  His offensive numbers fall short of the two studs above him in this race, but his improved defense gives him an edge in at least one category.

NL Cy Young
1. Clayton Kershaw   (233.1 IP, 21 W, 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9.57 K/9, 2.47 FIP, 6.8 WAR)
2. Roy Halladay         (233.2 IP, 19 W, 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 8.47 K/9, 2.20 FIP, 8.2 WAR)
3. Cliff Lee                 (232.2 IP, 17 W, 2.40, 1.03 WHIP, 9.21 K/9, 2.60 FIP, 6.8 WAR)

In the National League the Cy Young race is much more open for debate, as there is no Justin Verlander type season to run away with the award.  You can pretty much pick any Phillies pitcher and toss them in the mix, along with the Dodger's Clayton Kershaw.  Kid K blows away the rest of the group in strikeouts, which helps limit the number of base runners and gives him the lowest WHIP on the list.  The less balls that go into play, the less chance of a ball falling in for a hit.  It will be tough for voters to keep the award away from a pitcher that wins the pitching equivalent of the Triple Crown (leading in W, ERA and K's), despite that some of the advanced metrics seem to favor Halladay.  This is due in part to Kershaw playing in a pitchers park while Halladay and Lee both call one of the league's better hitting parks home.  I'm tempted to go with Halladay because of the advanced stats, and still feel like he's the game's best pitcher, but I'll go with Kershaw.  Voters will likely be swayed by the rare Triple Crown accomplishment, and Halladay may split some votes with Lee amongst Phillies supporters.  Plus, how great would it be if the MVP and Cy Young winners both came from a team that won only 82 games?

AL Rookie of the Year
1. Jeremy Hellickson
2. Mark Trumbo
3. Eric Hosmer

Desmond Jennings would have had a chance to steal the award with his impressive second half campaign, but he didn't play enough games to qualify for my vote.  Instead, I'm picking his teammate, Jeremy Hellickson.  Despite the rookie label, the Rays starter was arguably one of the AL's 10 best starters.  Sure, his 2.95 ERA and .210 opponent's batting average against may have been helped by his home park and outstanding defensive play behind him, but that doesn't take away how important he has been as a reliable part of the Rays playoff bound rotation.

NL Rookie of the Year
1. Craig Kimbrall
2. Freedie Freeman
3. Danny Espinosa

Reliever's often don't get a lot of credit in these award races because of the minimal innings they pitch, but it's hard to overlook a rookie that tied for the league lead in saves while boasting a 2.10 ERA and ridiculous 14.84 K/9.  He ran out of gas down the stretch, but that can be blamed on a manager that overworked his top bullpen guys all season long.  Kimbrall's 77 innings was more than any other closer in the majors.  He should be considered as the top player at his position in the NL, which is something none of these other rookies can come close to saying.

AL Manager of the Year
1. Joe Madden
2. Jim Layland
3. Ron Washington

Hard to pick anyone ahead of Madden after his team just made one of the all time great comebacks to earn a playoff spot.  Granted, that had a lot more to do with the Red Sox collapse than anything Tampa did, but the Rays do deserve credit for getting the job done when the opportunity was handed to them.  In a season after he lost stars like Crawford, Soriano and Garza, he still managed to plug in new pieces and hardly miss a beat.  Plus, with stories about his infamous theme days where he gets players to dress up on road trips (my favorite was the pajamas), who wouldn't want to play for him?

NL Manager of the Year
1. Kirk Gibson
2. Charlie Manual
3. Ron Roenicke

Who would have ever thought the Diamondbacks would come away with the NL West division title?  The same team that lost 97 games last year.  Sure, the injury to Buster Posey helped derail the season for the defending champion Giants, the Dodgers were sunk by the mess of their owner's divorce, and the Rockies mysteriously digressed, but give credit to a young Diamondback's team for taking advantage of the opening.  In turn, their manager deserves credit for rallying the troops and pushing them to what some may consider a season of over achievement.  Or perhaps it's young players like Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy finally making the jump to elite status and carrying the club.  Still, we'll give some credit to the manager too.