The MLB postseason begins tonight with the American League teams kicking off the Divisional round. There's nothing more intense than October baseball, a time when heroes are made and scapegoats are forever vilified. The pressure can be suffocating, with every pitch, every swing, every catch capable of taking your breath away. It's an adrenaline rush like no other, and it begins now.
Picking postseason winners is never an easy task because you never know how teams will perform under the bright lights of the big stage. The team with the best record rarely wins the World Series and the hottest team over the final weeks of the regular season is far from a lock either, as history has shown.
With that in mind, I'll attempt to make my postseason predictions, then sit back and wait to be surprised.
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays enter the postseason on a magical run that saw them erase a 9 game deficit in early September to come back and clinch the Wild Card on the final day of the season. Their momentum and confidence is riding high, but they've been in a must win playoff mode for the past week and eventually that has to wear on them. With a postseason start on the line, they were forced to pitch their top starters in the series finale against the Yankees. They'll turn to rookie phenom Matt Moore for Game 1. The September call up has a bright future, but he's pitched just over 9 full innings in the majors, including 1 start. That's a lot to put on a young kid with so little big league experience. The Rangers will have the luxury of starting ace CJ Wilson in Game 1, giving them a huge advantage out of the gate.
The Rays win with pitching and defense, but their rotation depth is negated in a short series and there are some question marks in their bullpen (would you trust Kyle Farnsworth in the 9th inning of a playoff game?). They had some clutch hits down the stretch, particularly from Evan Longoria, but the fact remains that they hit only .244 as a team for the season (only Seattle was worse in the AL), a far cry from the Rangers league leading .283. The Rangers hit well at home, where the series will begin, and the Rays don't seem to have enough firepower to keep up. With Wilson able to go twice in this series and the Rays potentially only able to use Shields and Price once, the pitching should be relatively even, so the Rangers big edge with the bats puts them ahead.
Prediction: Rangers in 4
New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers
Game 1 will feature a match up between two aces that likely will finish as the top two in AL Cy Young voting, with Justin Verlander taking the mound against CC Sabathia. No team would be excited to have to face Verlander twice in a 5 game series, but if any team is built to match up with the Tigers, it's the Yankees. Sabathia will give his team as good a chance as any at beating Verlander.
The problem is, what happens to the Yankees if they don't win with Sabathia on the mound? The rest of the Yankees rotation behind him is questionable. They'll avoid starting AJ Burnett at all costs in this series, but how much faith can they really put in Ian Nova and Freddy Garcia? Perhaps Bartolo Colon can get another shot of stem cells to boost him back to the level he was at earlier this season. Otherwise, the Yankees are in big trouble if they lose Game 1. After Verlander, the Tigers will use Doug Fister, who has been a savior for their rotation depth since being acquired mid-season from Seattle (8-1, 1.79 ERA with Detroit). He'll be followed by Max Scherzer, who despite bouts of wildness and inconsistency, is capable of shutting down an opposing lineup at any time. Hope is not lost for Detroit if Verlander can't get the job done in both of his starts this series. I'm not convinced the Yankees can say the same about Sabathia.
The edge that the Yankees do hold is on offense, but it's not as big of a difference as you might expect. The Yankees were second in the league in runs this year, but Detroit surprisingly was 4th. Miguel Cabrera is an MVP candidate, and we can all remember the impact he had as a young rookie during the Marlins World Series run back in 2003. The Yankees are loaded with high priced talent of their own, but many of the stars in their lineup have historically failed to shine on the big stage of October (A-Rod, Teixeria, Cano).
The Yankees are capable of shortening any game knowing they have the reliable Mariano Rivera and his All-Star set-up man David Robertson lurking in the bullpen, but Detroit's underrated late inning combo of Valverde and Benoit is just as capable. Plus, the Yankees will need to rely on their starters getting to the 8th inning with a lead for that to be a factor anyway, which I'm skeptical of happening three times in this series. The Yankees may be heavily favored because, well, they're the Yankees, but Detroit's pitching will carry them to the next round.
Prediction: Tigers in 4
Note: while I may have predicted both teams to lose, part of me would like to see the Yankees and Rays both advance to the ALCS. I'd like nothing more than the Yankees to be eliminated from the postseason by the Rays, the team they handed a postseason spot to on the season's final day (blowing a 7 run lead, benching starters and refusing to use Mo in a 1 run 9th? Come on!). Remember a couple years ago when the Bengals rested their starters in Week 17 to allow the Jets to get into the playoffs, then they lost to that same Jets team a week later in the first round of the NFL playoffs? New York will be on the opposite end of that this time. Karma will come back to bite them and the Yankees will be wishing they had the chance to eliminate the Rays when the had the chance.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
The Brew Crew went all in to win this year, knowing it's likely to be Prince Fielder's last year before he departs for a big free agent contract. Their urgency led them to strip the farm system to trade for Zack Grienke and Shaun Marcum, to team with Yovani Gallardo to form a formidable trio. The problem is that the team is so terrified of how the former Cy Young winner Grienke will react under the intense pressure of the postseason that they are pushing him back to Game 3. Take the uncertainty in their rotation and add in one of the league's worst defenses and that's not a recipe for success in the postseason.
The Diamondbacks are the surprise team of the season, making a worst to first turn around to capture the NL West division. Ian Kennedy and Dan Hudson give them a chance to win in each of their starts, as it's hard to give a significant edge to any of the Brewers pitchers over either of the youngsters. Kennedy (21 wins, 2.88 ERA) may be the best pitcher in the series. He'll help keep the Diamondbacks in the series.
The Brewers will need their offense to win this series. Lucky for them, they have two of the leagues best sluggers in Prince Fielder and MVP candidate Ryan Braun. They may be the league's most formidable duo, plus the supporting cast, including Corey Hart and energizer Nyjer Morgan, is plenty potent. Justin Upton gives the D-Backs an MVP candidate of their own, but he needs more help. The frustrating Chris Young is a 20/20 guy with solid run production, but hit only .236. He's a streaky hitter that could help carry the team or derail it.
Prediction: Brewers in 5
Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals
If the postseason is all about pitching then it's hard to argue against the Phillies, who have the ability with their fearsome foursome to put an ace on the mound in every game this series. The combined ERA of those four starters was 2.69 for the season. That's better than the top starter for most teams!
On the other hand, we can't be too quick to discount a lineup that features Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman. That's a tough trio to deal with for any pitching staff. Pujols will be a free agent this off-season. Coming off a disappointing season (by his high standards), he'll be looking to put on a show in October to make up for it and prove he's still the game's most feared hitter (just ask Brad Lidge, he still hasn't recovered from a Pujols postseason home run).
The Phillies lineup was once feared as much as their pitching, but the rapid declines of the overrated Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins has taken some of the shine off of them. Shane Victorino has been the one carrying the offense, and mid-season pick up Hunter Pence has given them a much needed boost. Their lineup is solid enough to support a dominant pitching staff.
Prediction: Phillies in 4
No comments:
Post a Comment