We're down to the final four, with the top teams remaining in each league battling it out for the pennant. With a World Series invitation on the line, expect more postseason excitement as each team lays it all on the line.
Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers
These teams are about as evenly matched as you'll find this postseason. They finished 3rd and 4th in the AL in runs scored this season, but Texas (855) was much closer to first place then they were to dropping behind Detroit (787). With a star studded lineup that includes Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinslar, Nelson Cruz, and Adrian Beltre, the Rangers have the kind of depth that any team not named the Yankees or Red Sox would envy. Detroit will counter with Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, two stars clearly in that same All-Star caliber category, but their lineup lacks the depth that Texas has. Delmon Young, who was a big part of the Tigers second half run after being acquired from the Twins, exited the Game 5 victory in New York with an oblique strain. That's the type of injury that tends to linger, putting his availability for this series in question and giving the Rangers an even bigger offensive edge.
The Rangers also are the more efficient defensive team, which is an unappreciated aspect of what makes an elite team. It may not appear that the Rangers are an elite team on the surface, because old school stats show that their 114 errors put them near the bottom of the league in that category. However, digging deeper into advanced defensive metrics reveals that Texas is by far the more superior defensive team. According to Fan Graphs, their team UZR of 25.9 placed them 4th in the AL, well ahead of Detroit (-3.7), which was a below average defensive team overall. That large of a gap could be a difference maker in this series.
If the Tigers have an edge anywhere it's with their pitching. Justin Verlander may be the best pitcher on the planet right now. He'll pitch in Game 1 of this series, which puts him in line to pitch in Game 4 and potentially in Game 7. If he gets to pitch three times in this series then the Tigers are going to be tough to beat. Despite Veralnder's dominance, Texas (3.79) actually finished a bit ahead of Detroit (4.04) in team ERA this season, but much of that factors in the replacement level starters Detroit was running out there before they traded for Doug Fister (8-1, 1.79 ERA, 0.84 WHIP since joining the Tigers rotation). Fister gives Detroit a legitimate second starter to slot behind Verlander. As for the Rangers pitching staff, they go even deeper with talent, but don't have the top end aces to match up with Detroit. CJ Wilson is coming off an All-Star season, but he's been shaky in his postseason career. He's 0-3 with a 6.26 ERA in his past 4 postseason starts, which includes getting shelled by Tampa Bay during the ALDS series. Texas needs their ace to step up to at least give them a chance in the games he opposes Verlander.
The pitching advantage, especially with Verlander potentially pitching three times in this series, makes me want to consider picking Detroit for this series, but I think Texas is slightly the better overall team. Given their home field advantage in the series, I'm leaning towards them. Despite that a potential Game 7 would be held in Texas, the thought of Verlander being available to start for the Tigers in that game against the struggling Wilson doesn't give much hope for the Rangers, but I think they take care of business before it gets to that point.
Prediction: Rangers in 6
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals surprised the world, not just for their strong finish to the regular season that saw them surpass the Braves for the NL Wild Card spot, but for overcoming the golden rotation of the heavily favored Phillies, who led the majors in wins. Much of that is thanks to the performance of their ace, Chris Carpenter, who's complete game shut out in Game 5 in Philadelphia is the reason they are here. With the roll Carpenter has been on through September and into the postseason, the crafty veteran may be the most dangerous pitcher in this series. Unfortunately, for the Cardinals, his heroics in the last series also means he won't be available to start until Game 3 of this series. He could be lined up to also start a potential Game 7, if it gets that far. If it doesn't, then only having the luxury of using their ace once in this series could hurt their chances. Their rotation fills out with Jamie Garcia and Edwin Jackson, two capable pitchers that will still give them a chance, but they don't quite match up with the likes of Grienke, Marcum and Gallardo.
Grienke will get the call in Game 1 in Milwaukee, where he was undefeated this season (11-0 in 15 starts at home). Grienke has a history of shying away from the big stage, which is part of why he agreed to be traded from the small market Royals to the smaller market Brewers. As the Brew Crew advance further into the postseason and the spotlight begins to shine a bit brighter, you have to wonder how he will handle the pressure. He's also lined up to start Game 5 on the road. The Brewers may be better served holding him off until Game 6, if possible, to allow him to pitch at home, where he's been substantially more effective (5-6, 4.70 ERA on the road).
The Cardinals have a formidable force in the middle of their lineup consisting of Pujols, Berkman and Holliday. The Brewers counter with two MVP candidates in Fielder and Bruan. The performance of these stars will go a long way towards determining this series, but the Brewers lineup has more depth to fall back on, with the likes of Weeks, Hart, and Morgan to help pick up the slack if either of their stars struggle. The Cardinals lineup isn't nearly as deep.
The Brewers are not known for their defensive skills, but surprisingly that may not hurt them as much as you might think. They are solid up the middle, but have issues on both sides of the diamond. The left side of their infield in particular with McGehee and Bentancourt is abysmal. They've helped themselves lately by giving more playing time to Jerry Hairston Jr. at third base, but calling them below average may be being too kind. Yet somehow they managed to rank near the top of the NL in advanced defensive metrics, such as UZR (16.2). Their two stars, Fielder and Bruan, won't be winning any gold glove awards, but each has improved defensively to the point where they aren't as much of a liability as they have been in the past. Surprisingly, it was the typically defensively sound Cardinals that ranked near the bottom of the league (-29.8 UZR).
The Brewers were the best home team in the majors, winning 57 games in their park. They'll have home field advantage in this series, which should give them the edge they need to stop the rolling Cardinals.
Prediction: Brewers in 6
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