Streaking C's

Haven't we seen this before?  After a thrilling last second victory over the division "rival" Knicks, the Boston Celtics find themselves on a league best 11 game winning streak.  They sit a top the Eastern Conference with their 20-4 record, which trails only San Antonio (21-3) for the NBA's best record.  It's an impressive start, but not one that should be unexpected.  After all, these Celtics have a record of 16-4 or better in each of the past four seasons during the new Big Three era, which no other franchise in history has accomplished. 

If recent history isn't enough to support the notion that this start is no fluke, the stats certainly back them up.  Per usual, the Celtics are getting it done on the defensive end.  Their +9.42 average scoring margin is third in the league, which is mostly thanks to ranking second best in the league in opponents points per game (92.0).  They rank in the top 10 in opponents field goal percentage and opponents 3-point field goal percentage.  While turnovers have historically plagued this team, they make up for it by being third in the league in forcing opponents turnovers, giving them a positive differential.  Rajon Rondo, who led the league in steals last season, is currently third in the league.  Glen Davis has been huge off the bench, forcing turnovers by leading the league in drawing charges.  Then there is Kevin Garnett.  Finally healthy and with a spring in his step, KG has regained his form as the ferocious defensive leader, leading the league in defensive rating (92.6), helping them become tops in the league in defensive efficiency.

They aren't too shabby on the offense end either.  While they may not be one of the league's highest scoring teams, in part because they are in the bottom third of the league in pace, they are still in the top third of the league in offensive efficiency.  They lead the league in True Shooting Percentage, which is derived from a formula which calculates field goal percentage with free throws and 3's factored in.  Their efficient scoring is helped by great ball movement, which starts with the brilliant play of Rondo.  He leads the league in assists by a comfortable margin (13.8).  A year after setting the Celtics franchise single season record in assists, he is on pace to have the highest assist average in the league since John Stockton set the record in 1990 (14.5).  Rondo is a master at getting great looks for his teammates, as we have already seen a highlight reel full of dishes and alley-oops early in the season.

While the strong start is encouraging, you can't help but feel a bit uneasy about their chances of sustaining this success.  Last season the Celtics got off to a similar dominant start, boasting a record of 23-5 after their big win in Orlando on Christmas Day.  From that point on the team began to struggle with injuries and inconsistency, leading to a mediocre 27-27 stretch for their remaining games.  It was still enough to win the miserable Atlantic Division and give them a top three playoff seed, which helped them stomp through the playoffs en route to a Finals appearance against the Lakers, where they eventually lost a heart-breaking game 7 in LA.  If Boston hopes to win a title this year they need to finish stronger in the regular season.  That final game being played in LA instead of Boston may have been the deciding factor in a relatively even series, so clinching a top seed to ensure home court advantage would be a big advantage.

Remaining on top is much easier said than done.  Last year's team struggled with injuries, an issue that won't go away with an aging team of veterans.  The team has already been hit hard with a rash of injuries to key players.  Kendrick Perkins is out until mid-season with a knee injury suffered in last year's Finals.  Jermaine O'Neal and Shaq, two former All-Star big men that were brought in to help replace him, have struggled to stay healthy, forcing the Celtics to start 4th string center Semih Erdin (a 2nd round pick rookie that was far from a lock to even make the team).  Rajon Rondo has missed 5 games already this year with a strained hamstring that could flare up at any time.  He's also dealing with a painful bout of planter fasciitis as well as an ankle that he sprained last night.  Behind him on the depth chart the options are slim, with Nate Robinson and rarely used rookie Avery Bradely the only options due to a broken wrist suffered by Delonte West earlier this season (after West had already finished a 10 game suspension to open the season).  Injuries have thinned out the depth of the roster to a point that could soon haunt them.  While they have players that can step in and contribute as starters thanks to their veteran core, doing so depletes the bench, which has struggled this year.  While the team would ideally like to limit the minutes of their veteran starters during the regular season, they are often times forced to push their minutes beyond a comfortable limit to stay in games when their thin bench struggles to keep a lead.

While injuries are impossible to predict, it's hard to imagine things getting much worse than what the team has already had to deal with (knock on wood).  It's reasonable to expect that as the team gets their players healthier in the second half of the season that they should be able to sustain at least most of the success that we've seen so far.  A deeper roster will help improve the inconsistency of the bench and help players find a groove in a more permanent role, finding a rhythm with the teammates they share the floor with.  It will also allow the starters to get more rest down the stretch to keep them strong and fresh for the playoffs.  The Celtics want to avoid having to sacrifice regular season games and a higher seed to ensure they are rested and healthy for the postseason.  While that tactic worked last year, it was done out of necessity.  The team would prefer not to have to rely on that plan this year.  If they can get healthy then we may be seeing banner 18 raised to the rafters this June.

NFL Week 14 Review

You know we must be getting close to the end of the regular season when snow storms start impacting games.  Is this the part where I throw in one of those "the weather is getting colder, but the action is just heating up!" cliches?

Or maybe you can just check out this video from the Metrodome, where a snow storm caused the roof to cave in, pouring snow onto the field.  Pretty scary incident, but at least nobody was near the field at the time.  The Giants/Vikings game had to be moved to Monday night in Detroit and there is no telling if the stadium can be repaired before the Vikings next home game.

Aside from stadiums falling apart, here are some other things I noticed this week.

• Payton Manning took a break from throwing interceptions long enough to pull out a win this week, keeping their playoff hopes alive.
• Are you kidding me, Tennessee?  Jeff Fisher has been a good coach for a long time, but this game was not his best work as far as game management.  Trailing by 9 points, the Titans needed two scores to win.  Instead of kicking the field goal as soon as they were in range, then going for the on-side kick/hail mary miracle, the Titans kept the drive going.  They did manage to get in the endzone to pull the game within 2 points... just as time expired.  They never gave themselves a chance to win.  Great job guys, you lost the game but at least you beat the spread, so a lot of people that gambled on the Colts this week hate you now.
• Did Randy Moss even play in this game?  Not only was he held without a catch again, he wasn't even targeted.  Considering at the start of the season he was considered one of the elite receivers in the game, has there ever been a worse non-injury related fall from grace in the middle of a season? Teams that employ Moss this season (Patriots, Vikings, Titans) are a combined 4-9 with Moss on their team. He's the NFL's new example of the Ewing Theory.
• The snow impacted another game in Chicago, but unfortunately for the home team it only impacted them.  The Patriots did just fine playing in the snow in the 36-7 beat down.  The Pats are now 10-0 in snow games in the Belichick era.
• The Brady/Belichick combo moved into 2nd place all-time with their 108th regular season win.  
• Brady tied an NFL record with his 6th straight game with at least 2 TDs and no interceptions. He's closing in on another record, having thrown 268 straight passes without an interception.
• Those are records Jay Cutler will never come close to.  He's improved his turnover rate from last year's miserable season, but after two more picks this week he's now up to 12 on the season. He also lost a fumble this week.
• Brady has a season high 369 yards, with Branch (151) and Welker (115) both eclipsing the century mark in receiving.
• The Patriots young defense, long considered to be the weakness of this team, continues to improve. They entered the week as one of the worst teams in the league in terms of yards per game, giving up almost 400 yards per game.  This week they gave up less than half of that (185 total yards).  After only giving up 7 points this week they've also jumped up to the middle of the pack in points allowed.
• Buffalo got it's third win of the season over another team that won't be making the playoffs.  Cleveland seems to only play well against good teams.  Three of their 5 wins this season have come against teams with winning records (Saints, Patriots, Dolphins) and they nearly beat the Jets a few weeks ago.
• The Packers may have seen their playoff hopes spiral down the drain this week, and not because they remain 1 game behind Chicago for the division lead, or because there is an unofficial rule that says a team can't make the playoffs if they have lost to the Lions.  The concussion suffered by Aaron Rodgers is of much greater concern.  Not that the offense looked very good even while he was in there, but you have to expect they would have put up more than 3 points if he had played the whole game.  His status for next weeks game in New England is in doubt and depending on the severity of the concussion it could be several weeks.  It's the second concussion he's suffered this season, so that should be a factor.  The NFL is making a point of being cautious with head injuries this year, but will they continue to be as strict about it as the season winds down and playoff spots are on the line?
• The Bengals could have beaten the Steelers this week.  At least they would have if the TD passes Caron Palmer threw were to his own teammates.  The Steelers returned two picks for TDs, including this one by Troy Polamalu that ended in a spectacular dive to the endzone.
• Apparently Ben Roethisberger did break his nose, despite the Steelers claims last week that he didn't.  He wore a visor on his helmet to protect his face to start the game, but the raindrops were clearly obstructing his view and effecting his play.  He removed the visor later in the game.
• Washington needs to start trying out some new kickers because Graham Gano is probably out of a job after this loss.  Maybe the entire special teams unit should be gone.  The Redskins kicker missed two short field goals in the game and barely made the 25 yard kick he did manage to convert.  Despite the failed attempts, Gano had a chance to redeem himself after McNabb led the team on a last second TD drive.  The extra point would have tied the game, but the kick never came, as the snap sailed over the holder's head.  Game over.  Why not just go for the two point conversion to win?  Given their kicking struggles in the rain that day, and McNabb's confusion with overtime rules, maybe that would have been the better choice.
• The NFC's best team had no trouble against the lowly Panthers.  Atlanta cruised to a 31-10 win to improve to 11-2 on the season, tied with the Patriots for the NFL lead.  
• Michael Turner had a big game, going over the 100 yard mark and scoring 3 TDs.
• The Jaguars outlasted the Raiders in a back and forth game that was clinched with a 30 yard TD run by Maurice Jones-Drew with about a minute and half left.  The Jags remain in first in the NFC South, which has to be the biggest surprise of any division leader.
• Darren McFadden did all he could to keep his team in the game, totaling over 200 yards and 3 TDs. He'll end up with a few games that are complete duds and his injury history is well documented, but it's games like this that remind you that he's one of the games more dangerous big play RBs.
• The Saints did their part to keep pace in the NFC South, but still trail the Falcons by one game and have to play them again in Atlanta.
• Drew Brees trails only Tom Brady in TDs (28), but also leads all QBs with interceptions (18).  Not really the ratio they were hoping for, or what they've come to expect from the Super Bowl MVP.
• The 49ers blew out the Seahawks to climb back into the NFC West race.  They trail Seattle and St. Louis by only one game.  Pretty impressive considering the terrible start they got off to and the fact that they lost their best player to injury for the rest of the season.  With the way they've turned things around you'd think they must have fired their coach or something.
• Nope, Mike Singletary is somehow still employed.  He must read this blog too because he finally listened to me by including Brian Westbrook in the passing game.  He led the team with 6 catches for 87 yards and a TD.
• If last week's blowout loss to the Patriots was embarrassing then how do you classify a home loss to the Dolphins?  Once again, you can't fault the defense, which held Miami to only 55 passing yards, 131 total yards and 10 points.  How do you lose a team that has that bad of an offensive game?  The Jets more than doubled the Dolphins yardage, but that's not saying much.  They played a sloppy game again and it's finally caught up to them.
• To add to their embarrassment, a Jets coach was caught on video sticking his leg out to trip a Dolphins player on a punt return.  That's pathetic.  He has been suspended for the rest of the season and probably shouldn't be allowed back after that.
• The Jets were a trendy Super Bowl pick coming into the season, but I still can't see why.  Was it their strong defense (good, but hardly the league's best - 5th in yards, 6th in points)?  Their appearance on HBO's Hard Knocks?  Or their improbable run to last year's AFC title game?  Let's not forget, the Jets only made the playoffs last year because in their last two regular season games they were basically handed wins because their opponents had already locked in their playoff spots.  That luck carried over to this year, where they went on a run over a 3 week span mid-season that saw them get narrow victories (two in OT) that they easily should have lost if not for last minute blunders by the opponents that handed the Jets the win.
• Last year the Jets got hot at the right time.  This season the Jets started out strong and are falling apart down the stretch.  It's looking a lot more like 2008 than 2009.
• Well, so much for the theory that firing your coach means you'll turn your season around immediately.  In their first game since firing Josh McDaniels the Broncos had perhaps their worst loss of the season against a terrible Cardinals team that was starting it's 3rd string QB.
• Only a few weeks ago Kyle Orton was playing like an MVP (or at least a Fantasy Football MVP), but his season has gone down in flames the past couple weeks.  He's fallen even further behind the league leader in passing yards, a position he once held himself a few weeks ago.
• The Chargers rebounded from the stink bomb against Oakland last week to shut out the Matt Cassel-less Chiefs.  The division can essentially be handed to them now if Cassel is out with an appendectomy for the next couple weeks - possibly even for the season.
• It was a nice run this season to get back to respectability KC, but you aren't winning with Brodie Croyle as your QB. He was so bad, not just because he totaled only 40 yards, but because his ineffectiveness rubbed off on his stud RBs. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones were held to only 41 yards between the two of them.
• The Eagles won on Sunday night thanks to the DeSean Jackson show. Despite having to leave the game several times with ankle issues, Jackson hauled in 4 huge catches for 210 yards and a TD.
• Jackson drew a flag for an unnecessary endzone celebration because he stopped just short of the endzone, turned around and fell backwards into the endzone. Can you really get flagged for an endzone celebration when it doesn't actually happen in the endzone?
• That flag was almost as ridiculous as the fact that Jackson actually did that. This isn't the first time Jackson has tried to get creative near the goal line, but at least this time it didn't cost him. Last year he spiked the ball to the ground to celebrate a TD catch, which was called back because he hadn't actually crossed the endzone line yet when he let go of the ball, causing a fumble. In college he tried to do a flip into the endzone, but landed just short of the line and fumbled the ball. So maybe he does deserve a flag - for stupidity!
• The Cowboys are only 1-6 at home this year.  At this rate, pretty soon they won't have any fans left to put in that giant stadium.  At least they have played better since firing Wade Phillips, so there are signs that they can turn things around next year when Romo is back.
• The streak is over!  Brett Favre's ironman record of 297 consecutive starts was finally snapped this week as the old man was forced to sit out with an injury.  It may not be just the streak that's ending, but also his career.  Given his poor play and the end to his famous streak, it's hard to imagine he'll be back next year (although he'll still likely make it a mystery all off-season), so if he's not fully healthy there is little insentive for the team to play him in their last three games since they are already out of contention.  Sad to see his career end on such a whimper.  He should have retired after last year.
• There's a lot of negative things you can say about Favre - the scandals, the flip-flopping retirement sagas, the teams he's destroyed.  All jokes aside though, you can't argue the legacy that he leaves behind.  If this truly is the end of his career then it will end with him holding almost every major record for a Quarterback.  Let's hope that he will be remembered for the great years he had in his prime in Green Bay and not for the media circus that he's put himself in over the past few years.
• Oh yeah, and the Giants crushed the Vikings thanks to a pounding running game.  Both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs passed the 100 yard mark and each scored a TD.
• The Texans offense was pathetic in the first half, which looked like it was going to turn into a route for the Ravens.  Matt Schuab had competed less than a third of his passes by that point, thanks in part to a ridiculous amount of dropped passes by his receivers.  They finally showed some signs of life in the final minute before halftime, when Schuab connected on a TD pass to Andre Johnson.  That play gave them some much needed momentum for the second half, which sparked their improbable comeback, which saw the second half end much like the first half did - on a TD pass to Andre Johnson.  Unfortunately that just led to a tie and the Ravens won in OT.  Still, it was an impressive turn around to make it a very exciting game down the stretch.
• As great as Schaub played in the second half, he ended up costing them the game with an interception in OT that was returned for a TD.
• With his 29th career victory, Joe Flacco is now tied for third for most wins as a starting QB in their first three seasons in the league since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.
• New England has passed Green Bay for the top scoring differential in the NFL (+139).
• The Bengals (2-11) have lost their past 10 games.  They are the only team in the league to have a double digit losing streak all season.  Carolina (1-12) has lost their last 7 games, so with only 3 games remaining they are the only team that even has a chance to reach a double digit losing streak.

Carl Crawford running with Sox

Has any team in baseball made more of an impact this off-season than the Boston Red Sox?  It's certainly a hard point to argue in the wake of this past week's blockbuster moves.  Red Sox Nation had yet to settle down from their giddy excitement over the pivotal trade for Adrian Gonzalez before the team shocked the baseball world with another blockbuster move - signing free agent LF Carl Crawford to a 7 year $142 million deal.

Crawford joins an already impressive line-up to give the Red Sox what may be the most potent line-up 1-9 that they have had in recent memory.  He's coming off a season where he hit .309 with a .356 OBP and .495 SLG with the Tamp Bay Rays.  His 19 home runs were a career high, and he'll be moving to Fenway park, where the short right field foul pole could boost those power numbers into the mid-20's.  His greatest asset is undoubtedly his speed.  He stole 47 bases last season and has averaged 54 steals per season in his career.  Only Juan Pierre has more steals since 2003.  Combined with Jacoby Ellsbury, they will be a terror to deal with on the basepaths. 

His speed is also an important aspect of his game as an outfielder.  The mult-time Gold Glover winner is considered to be the best defensive left fielder in baseball.  He has the speed to cover a lot of ground and has great instincts.  His one negative attribute has been a below average throwing arm, which is negated at Fenway by the Green Monster which shortens left field.  The statistical metric known as Defensive Runs Saved, which measures a player's ability to turn batted balls into outs credits Crawford with 14 runs saved last season, which was the best in the league for LFs.

There is just no denying that Crawford is a big time impact player and undoubtedly the best free agent position player available.  The Red Sox had a hole to fill in the outfield, as they were understandably hesitant to give an everyday spot to either 38 year old Mike Cameron (if he can even stay healthy all season) or rookie Ryan Kalish (who could use a little more seasoning in Pawtucket).  This move sets them up perfectly, with an outfield of Crawford, Ellsbury and Drew for this season.  While Ellsbury is still relatively cheap, the trio of outfielders are still a bit pricey.  However, Drew's large contract will come off the books after this season, opening up a spot for Kalish in 2012, giving the Sox a young, talented outfield that isn't much more expensive than what they've had in recent years.

Still, the argument can be made that 7 years at over $20 million per season is a lot to commit to any player.  Particularly one that doesn't hit for much power, when the home run ball is generally what gets cash registers to ring.  However, Crawford's skills can't be measured in the same way as they would be for a slugging home run hitter.  His speed and ability to hit for average offer a different set of skills than some of the other top players in the game, but they still bring plenty of value.  Crawford's WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 6.9 was tied for 3rd in the AL last season, showing his all around value to his team.

The Red Sox are generally hesitant to offer long term contracts.  In fact, this deal (as well as the expected extension for Adrian Gonzalez, which should also be for 7 years) is the longest deal given by the current regime.  The largest contract in Red Sox history, given to Manny Ramirez in 2000, was done under the prior ownership.  While these moves on the surface seem to be getting away from the team's long term philosophy, it should be noted that both of these players are still young and entering their peak seasons.  Crawford is only 29 years old, and will be 35 in the last year of the deal.  While athletic speedsters tend to see their skills decline around their mid-30s, the majority of this contract will be during his peak seasons. Even by the end of the contract we should not expect his skills to have declined too much. 

Even if the deal is longer and for more money than the Sox were initially comfortable with, the market dictated that they needed to expand their offer after the Washington Nationals gave Jayson Werth a shocking 7 year $126 million deal last week.  Werth had been on the Red Sox radar because they expected him to be a cheaper alternative to Crawford that would not require as long of a commitment.  Considering Werth is two years older and not quite as talented a player as Crawford, the deal the Nationals gave him is widely considered to be excessive.  The signing was a bit of a head scratcher, considering the Nats won't be a contender for at least another year or two, when Stephan Strasburg will return from injury and Bryce Harper may be ready to contribute.  It wasn't just a bad move for them though, as the ripple effect throughout free agency impacted other players, including Crawford, who of course would not sign for anything less than what Werth got.  As unfair as it may seem for other teams to have to overpay just because another team was foolish enough to do it, that's the way the market works.  Compared to the Werth deal, Crawford's contract actually seems reasonable.

Just as Werth's deal impacted Crawford's, the Red Sox have now impacted other teams looking to sign the remaining free agents.  The Yankees will feel even more pressure to sign Cliff Lee to ensure they get at least one of the major free agents as well as to keep up with Boston.  The Rangers, with new owners and deeper pockets, present the biggest obstacle for them as Texas seems determined to keep Lee.  Crawford was expected to be a back-up plan for both of those teams in the event that they can't get Lee, but now he's off the board.  The Angels were the other favorites in the Crawford sweepstakes, and they must be devastated over losing out.  They must now turn their attention to players like Adrian Beltre and Rafael Soriano - both of whom come with big price tags and are represented by Scott Boras, who the Angel's front office has a bit of an icy relationship with after his client Mark Teixeira spurned them for the Yankees two years ago.

After a depressing 2010 season that was crippled by injuries to many of their core players, the Red Sox were determined to bounce back this season.  At the start of last season, assuming a healthy line-up, the Red Sox were projected to be the best team in baseball.  Obviously that didn't happen, but with the upgrades they've made this season they will likely be the favorites again - at least on paper.

There is still work to be done, as the team must now turn their attention to re-stocking the bullpen, as they are dangerously thin behind Papelbon and Bard.  They will take a long look at free agents like Scott Downs and Brian Fuentes as well as explore some other trade possibilities.  It's also unclear how comfortable the team is with their catching duo of Saltalamacchia and Varitek.  They are rumored to be interested in Russell Martin, who is available after being non-tendered by the Dodgers.

They also need to fill in some depth for their bench, not only to protect against the injury bug, but to balance the roster with some more right handed power.  5 of the 9 hitters expected to be in their line-up are left handed.  That may become a match-up problem against a team like the Yankees, who have a lefty ace in CC Sabathia, as well as Andy Pettite (if he doesn't retire) and they may add another lefty in Cliff Lee.  The Sox would be wise to add some right handed hitters that could help fill in against some of those tough lefties for guys like Ortiz and Drew that tend to struggle against them.

There is still a long way to go before Opening Day in April, but the excitement in Red Sox Nation is boiling over.  GM Theo Epstein and the Red Sox ownership have given their fans an early Christmas present, and his name is Carl Crawford.

NFL Week 13 Review

With several games this week featuring top divisional opponents it's likely that many of these games will help shape up the playoff race.  While no team has been able to wrap up their division yet, there are a few teams that put themselves in the drivers seat with big wins this weekend.

Here are some things that I noticed this week.

• Michael Vick passed for over 300 yards for the second week in a row.  It's the third time this season and only the 5th time in his career that he's achieved that many passing yards in a game.
• He also added 48 rushing yards and a rushing TD, so yeah... he's still a mobile QB.  This season he's finally showing that he can throw as well, making him a complete QB that can beat you so many different ways.  He is one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in the league and probably the hardest player for opposing defenses to game plan for each week.
• Andre Johnson didn't punch anyone this week, but he did abuse the Eagle's injury depleted secondary for 149 yards.
• It didn't come as easily as it should have considering they played the Bengals, but the Saints got a much needed win to stay in the NFC South race.  All it took was some last minute heroics from Drew Brees, who threw the game winning TD with about 30 seconds left in the game. 
• Coach Sean Payton made a gutsy move at the end of the game.  Down three points at the end of the game, he had the opportunity to tie the game and send it to overtime on the road.  Facing 4th and 2 you'd figure that most coaches would take the points to tie, but Payton wanted to go for the win, keeping his offense on the field.  Were they really going for it, or did they just send out the offense to try to draw the Bengals into a penalty?  We'll never know, because whether it was intentional or not, they did get the Bengals to move early, resulting in an automatic first down.  They scored the winning TD on the next play.  Would they have scored without the penalty, with the ball lined up a few yards further back and the do-or-die pressure of a 4th and 2 play?
• Chris Ivory scored the first Saints TD on a big 55 yard run.  He added another TD later and finished with 117 yards on only 15 carries.  On the other end, Cedric Benson also scored 2 TDs, but only managed a miserable 49 yards on 19 carries against a team not known for it's stout rush defense.
• The Lions got screwed against the Bears again!  They lost their early season match-up when the referees determined Calvin Johnson did not hold on to the would-be game winning TD catch for long enough when he came down with it in the endzone.  This week the Bears game winning drive was aided by a huge unnecessary roughness penalty. 
• Referee Ed Hochuli defended the call by saying "I felt it was an unnecessary non-football act -- a blow to the back of the runner's helmet in the process of him going down."  The problem is, it didn't seem that Suh actually hit Cutler in the head.  It was a borderline call at best, one that typically would not be called.
• Donald Driver wins the award this week for scoring a TD with the greatest degree of difficulty with his ridiculous 61 yard catch that included breaking a tackle from just about every defensive player on the field.  Not bad, old man.
• The blast from the past revival for Brian Westbrook only lasted one week.  He had an even split with Anthony Dixon, with both RBs getting 9 carries and each of them barely cracking the 30 yard mark.  Once again Westbrook was an afterthought in the passing game as well.
• With Kerry Collins back this week the Titans offense couldn't possibly be a putrid as it was with Rusty Smith at the helm, but it wasn't much better either.
• After leading the league in rushing last year when he broke the 2K yard mark, Chris Johnson has now fallen out of the top 5 in rushing yards for the season after another sub-par performance.
• We knew the Titans offense was a mess, but the defense wasn't much better, as they couldn't stop Maurice Jones-Drew.  MJD ran wild for 186 yards!  The Jaguars running game had more total yards than the Titans' offense.
• Wasn't the KC-Denver game supposed to be another shoot-out?  Last time I checked 10-6 would only be considered high scoring if it was a baseball game.
• Matt Cassell has been burning up the league lately and had to be salivating over his chances to pick apart a terrible Broncos defense.  Yet he only managed 196 yards and one TD.  His favorite target, Dwayne Bowe, was held without a catch.
• Kyle Orton was even worse.  His 117 yard performance dropped him from first in the league in passing yards to a distant 4th.
• Denver has been a team that not only can't run the ball, they typically don't even bother trying.  Yet this bizarro game saw them run the ball almost as many times as they threw it, and the ground game was much more effective.  Knowshown Moreno was the only Bronco to have a rushing attempt, but he did a lot with his 23 carries, rushing for a career high 161 yards.
• The Broncos fired coach Josh McDaniels on Monday.  The NFL's youngest coach started out his head coaching career after leaving New England for Denver on a 6-0 hot streak to begin the 2009 season, but it's been all downhill from there.  Since that start the team has gone 5-17, including a 3-9 record this season that has already taken them out of the playoff race, despite that the three other AFC West teams are still in it.  A recent video taping scandal (Spygate II) didn't endear him to his employers either, despite McDaniels claims that he was not involved.  When he took over last year the Broncos looked like a team on the verge of being a playoff contender.  In less than two years he has ruined the franchise through bad trades, drafts and coaching.  He'll eventually latch on somewhere else as an offensive coordinator, since his time in New England and Denver showed he at least can call a good offensive game, but he clearly was not ready to be a head coach.
• The Browns and Dolphins seemed to competing for who has the worst offense for most of this game, with each team only managing a field goal up until the end of the 3rd quarter.  The Browns won it on a FG as time expired.
• It didn't win them the game, but Dolphins kicker Dan Carpenter's 60 yard FG was impressive.  A lot of teams wouldn't even bother to try it from that distance, but a long field goal probably has a better chance to succeed than a hail mary pass (especially when Chad Henne is your QB) and they only had time for one play before halftime.
• Brett Favre attempted only one pass in the game, which was intercepted, before leaving the game with an injury.  His status for next week is unclear, but if you are the Vikings do you really want him back?
• In his absence, Tavaras Jackson showed the pros and cons of turning the job over to him.  On the one hand, he led the team to their highest scoring game of the season.  On the other hand, he had three interceptions, one of which was returned for a TD.
• Then again, who needs a great QB when you have Adrian Peterson?  He rushed for over 100 yards and added 3 TDs.
• The Giants defense was dominant, forcing 6 Redskins turnovers and recording 4 sacks.  Eli Manning is a good QB, but he's not an elite player that can carry the team consistantly on his own like his big brother, especially when his receiving options are so depleted due to injuries.  The Giants need their defense and running game to keep playing like they did this week if they hope to re-take the division from the Eagles.
• Philip Rivers lost a game in the month of December for the first time in his career.  They had been one of the hottest teams in the league lately, but they didn't show up for this game against Oakland.  The loss puts them 2 games back of KC for the AFC West.  Their playoff chances, and Rivers' odds at the MVP award, took a major step back.
• Oakland won in part because they finally got their running game back on track.  Their 1-2 punch of McFadden and Bush combined for 192 rushing yards and 2 TDs.
• Payton Manning has never looked worse in his career than he has the past 3 weeks in losses to New England, San Diego and Dallas.  Over that span he has thrown 11 interceptions, 4 of which have been returned for a TD. 
• The Colts are now 6-6 and in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2001.  They turn the ball over too much, are last in the league in rushing yards and rank 29th in rushing defense (the three teams behind them in rush defense are all miserable teams with no shot at the playoffs).  So they can't blame all their troubles on some injured receivers.
• With Marion Barber injured, Tashard Choice finally got a shot to get some meaningful carries, and he made the most of it (19 carries, 100 yards and an impressive TD run).  It shouldn't come as much of a shock, considering Choice has averaged over 5 yards per carry in his career, but he's been trapped at the bottom of the depth chart for too long.  Hopefully this helps rectify that even after Barber gets healthy.
• The Rams moved to 6-6, paving the way for the possibility that the NFC West might end up with a team above .500.  Still probably won't happen, but at this point we should be content with an 8-8 team winning that division.
• As Howie Long pointed out in the pre-game show, don't count out a team like the Rams to get hot right around the playoffs.  Two years ago a 9-7 Cardinals team won this division and people thought it was one of the worst teams to qualify for the playoffs in history, yet they managed to get to the Super Bowl.  Then again... that team had a Hall of Fame caliber QB (Warner) and not a rookie (Bradford).
• Arizona had gotten away from the QB carousel for a couple of weeks, sticking with Derek Anderson, but now it may be worse than ever, as they used 3 different QBs for stretches of this game.  Anderson was benched in the 4th quarter for Max Hall, who dislocated his shoulder after only 3 pass attempts.  Rookie John Skelton (who's name for some reason I keep mixing up with Jack Skellington, even though I'm pretty sure he has no relation to the Pumpkin King) made his debut to close out the game, and actually played better than the other two.  It was a small sample size, but at least he didn't throw an interception.
• Seattle also won this week to remain tied with St. Louis at the top of the NFC West.  They have similarly difficult schedules to close the season, so their week 17 match-up may decide the division.
• Carolina is so bad that they were even able to make Marshawn Lynch look decent.  His 4 yards per carry isn't great, but it's a big upgrade over his season average (3.3) and he scored 3 times.
• Justin Forsett continues to be woefully underused, getting only 6 carries despite averaging 10 yards per carry in the game.
• Matt Ryan continues to establish himself as an elite QB with another late 4th quarter comeback.  This time, down by 10 in the 4th quarter, Ryan led two TD drives to pull ahead of Tampa in a game they had to win to stay on top of the NFC South.
• A win for Tampa would have put them right in the middle of the division race, but after falling to 7-5 they are now a long shot to pass both Atlanta and New Orleans and even the Wild Card is a reach at this point.  You still have to be impressed by the turnaround by this team this year considering how bad they were at this time last year.
• The Steelers held on to win a tough game that predictably was dominated by defense.  It's never easy beating good teams when you are playing on the road, but the Steelers needed this one if they were to have any chance at the division title considering the Ravens won their first match-up.  Now the Steelers have evened the head-to-head record and own a 1 game lead over their rivals from Baltimore.
• When these two physical rivals meet you can expect there to be some bad blood, but in this game the blood was all over Roethlisberger's face.  The Steeler's QB took a shot to the face (which wasn't called, but did result in a fine) that busted up his nose pretty badly.  The Steelers are claiming the nose wasn't broken, but that's hard to believe given how crooked his nose looked after the play happened and the amount of blood that was pouring out of it.
• Steelers CB Bryant McFadden had a tough day, as he was picked on often by the Flacco-Boldin combination.  He got burned badly by the faster Boldin on his 61 yard reception.
• In their last meeting, Joe Flacco was the hero when he led the Ravens on a last minute scoring drive to win the game.  The stage was set for him to do it again, but he couldn't get the job done.  A costly fumble deep in their own territory set up a quick score for the Steelers.  Then on their final drive he failed to make up for his mistake, turning the ball over on downs.
• In his defense, he did manage to get them to the Pittsburgh 31 yard line, which would have given them the chance for a 48 yard field goal attempt.  Given that the wind was against them they opted to go for it on 4th and 2 rather than tie the game with a FG, but the pass fell incomplete as Flacco skipped the ball at the feet of his receiver to end the game.
• The Patriots destroyed the Jets on Monday night.  The game that was hyped as the biggest game of the week turned out to be the biggest blow out - a 45-3 massacre.  This game was the complete opposite of their week 2 match-up, when the Jets won with a defense that confused Brady and kept him off balance, forcing him to make bad throws and turn the ball over.  This week, Brady was unstoppable from start to finish, connecting with 8 different receivers.
• Tom Brady should be the undisputed MVP at this point in the season.  Not only does he lead the league's best team, and highest scoring offense, but he leads the league in QB Rating (109.5) and TDs (27) with only 4 interceptions.  Nobody in the league is playing at his level right now.
• Mark Sanchez had another awful game.  When he plays well the Jets are a very good team, but Sanchez has been too inconsistent for this team to seriously be considered a Super Bowl contender.  He has had too many terrible games like this: 17/33 passing for only 164 yards, 3 Interceptions and not coming close to getting his team in the endzone.  The Jets only had 2 red zone drives all game and came away without points both times.
• The Patriots defense came up big in this game.  There are some that don't take the Patriots seriously as contenders due to the fact that they are 31st in the league in total yards allowed and last in 3rd down conversion percentage.  Some of that is to be expected considering they have the youngest defense in the league, starting 4 rookies, but they are getting better each week and they made a statement in this game.
• The Jets were only 3-12 on third downs, with the Patriots coming up with several key stops in situations where they have typically struggled.
• The Patriots defense has a bend-but-don't-break mentality, similar to what they had in their Super Bowl years.  They give up a lot of yardage, yet they aren't among the 10 worst teams in terms of points given up per game.  Part of that is because they lead the AFC in turnover differential (+14) and are third in take-aways.
• Pats rookie CB Devin McCourty is a big part of that, as he's tied for 2nd in the NFL with 6 interceptions.  He continues to impress every week.  He may not be the favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year over Detroit's Ndamukong Suh (8 sacks, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery) but his interception total will at least put him in the conversation.
• The Patriots are the only team in the AFC with 10 wins already.  They have put themselves in the driver's seat for the top seed in the AFC with only 4 games left.  As long as they can win at least 3 of their remaining games (@Chicago, Green Bay, @Buffalo, Miami) they should be able to wrap up the number one seed.  The last two games are key, despite that they are the less challenging opponents.  If they lose to either of those teams and the Jets win all 4 of their remaining games then the Jets would win the tie-breaker due to a better conference record.
• The Jets have the same remaining schedule, only they already played Green Bay and have to travel to Pittsburgh instead, so their schedule is a little more challenging, but they aren't out of the division title hunt yet.
• Pittsburgh is the only other likely challenger for the top seed in the AFC, but they are a game behind the Patriots in the standings and the Pats own the head-to-head tie-breaker, so they would have to make up 2 games in the last 4 to pass them.
• In the NFC, Atlanta also has 10 wins and the inside track at the top seed.  Their biggest challenger for the position is their division rival Saints.  Their Week 16 match-up could decide the division, as the rest of their remaining schedule should be a cake walk (Carolina twice and @Seattle).
• The Patriots look like they are unbeatable at home.  Matt Ryan has only lost one home game in his career.  If both teams get the top seed in their conference, giving them home field advantage throughout the playoffs, there is a good chance they will meet in the Super Bowl.
• The Patriots now lead the AFC in point differential (+110).  The Packers still lead in the NFC (+121).  Nobody else in either conference is even close.
• I was officially eliminated from one of my fantasy football leagues.  I didn't even make the playoffs.  It didn't help that I lost my QB ( Tony Romo) top RB (DeAngelo Williams) and TE (JerMichael Finley) for most of the season.  On the bright side, I still have 3 other teams that are doing just fine.

Yo Adrian!

On the verge of the MLB Winter Meetings, the Boston Red Sox have been right in the middle of the rumor mill, per usual.  After months of speculation, the Sox have finally made their first big move of the off-season.

The Red Sox and San Diego Padres have agreed to a deal that will send slugging first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to Boston for prospects.  Boston has long coveted Gonzalez and has been rumored to be amongst the teams looking to trade for him as far back as the beginning of last season.  The three time All-Star finished 4th in the NL MVP voting last season  He is an elite player that has priced himself out of San Diego, so with his contract up after this season and little chance at retaining him, the Padres made the wise decision to get some quality prospects for him.

Boston will send their top prospect, pitcher Casey Kelly, as well as their number three prospect, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, and their number 6 prospect, outfielder Reymond Fuentes, to San Diego.  They are all quality prospects that could make an impact within the next couple of years at a much cheaper rate for the small market Padres.  

Given Boston's financial resources and farm system depth, it's a move they can afford to make.  Kelly could end up being a great pitcher, but he's a couple years away and the Sox have a lot of money tied to their rotation already, so at the moment there is no room for him anyway.  Lester, Beckett, Buchholz and Lackey are locked up for the next several years.  While it would be nice to envision a top prospect like Kelly sliding into that 5th spot next year once Dice-K's contract is up, the Sox have other young pitchers that could challenge for that role, such as Felix Doubront, or they could pursue another veteran in free agency.

Rizzo could develop into a quality slugger, considering he hit 20 Home Runs and knocked in 80 RBIs with a .815 OPS as a 21 year old in Double A Portland last year.  Even if he becomes an All-Star at some point down the road, it's hard to imagine him ever being that much better than what Gonzalez gives the team right now.  Since they play the same position, he became expendable.  

Fuentes is an exciting young speeder who stole 42 bases in Single A Greenville last season.  He could become a good player, but he's a long way off from being in the majors and the Sox already have a lot of quality outfield prospects that are ahead of him, such as Ryan Kalish.  Boston also intends to make a strong push to acquire one of the top free agent outfielders this year - Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth.  That would make him expendable as well.  I think the only one that is upset about losing Fuentes in this deal is my mom, after Fuentes became her favorite prospect after her trip to see the Sox and Spring Training last year.  She claims I ruined her day when I told her the news that Reymond was traded away.

These are all talented prospects with bright futures, but none of them are a sure fire super star like Gonzalez.  The Red Sox are widely considered to have one of the best farm systems in the game, but that speaks more to the depth of their system.  There are no Stephen Strasburgs, Jason Heywards or Buster Poseys in this system.  Anyone in this system is expendable for the right deal, and this is it.  

Now, back to Gonzalez.  The casual fan many not know much about him considering he played in relative obscurity for most of his career in San Diego, but he is one of the best first basemen in the game.  He's hit between 30-40 Home Runs in each of the past 4 seasons.  His career averages are a .284 batting average, .368 OBP, and .507 Slugging.  Those numbers compare favorably to the career numbers for Mark Teixeira, who the Sox lost out on two years ago to the Yankees.  They have put up very similar numbers for their career, with Gonzalez having the much better year last year.  You also have to factor in that Teixeira plays half his games in Yankee Stadium, one of the league's best hitter's parks.  Meanwhile, Gonzalez played at Petco Park in San Diego, which is easily the worst hitters park in the majors.  The fact that he was able to put up such impressive power numbers in that stadium is a testament to how great a hitter he is.  The Red Sox must be salivating over what kind of numbers he will put up in hitter friendly Fenway Park, where a short right field pole becomes so inviting for a power hitting lefty hitter like Gonzalez.

As impressive as he is with the bat, Gonzalez is just as good with a glove.  He's a two time Gold Glove award winner, and while it's no secret how little stock I have in that bogus award, Gonzalez is a deserving winner, with a career UZR rating of 6.2.  He's also a very durable player, having played at least 156 games in each year in San Diego when he became a full time player.  Given the injury woes the team has last season, someone that can avoid the DL will be a welcome addition.

The downside of the deal is that it likely means the end of the Adrian Beltre era in Boston.  Kevin Youkilis will shift over to third base, leaving no room for Beltre.  While it will be hard to see him go after the year he just had, when he was easily our best all around player, it's the right move.  As a free agent, Beltre will command a multi-year deal for a lot of money.  He's rumored to have been offered a 5 year $64 million deal from Oakland, and that number could rise if other teams get in on the bidding.  That's a lot to give to a player that has a history of having his best years in a contract year.  Beltre's best season was with the Dodgers in 2004 when he hit .334 with 48 home runs.  That break out year got him a big contract from Seattle, where he was a disappointment.  His best year in Seattle doesn't come close to an average year for Adrian Gonzalez.  Moving to Fenway was a boon for Beltre's offensive stats, but it's reasonable to assume that Gonzalez is in for a similar spike in production after escaping the cavernous confines of Petco Park.  As we'll soon see, Gonzalez is the better player, so if we could only have one then this is the guy we want.  The expected contract extension, which is being negotiated as part of the trade, may make him more expensive, but probably not by much considering he won't actually get to free agency, so no other teams can drive up the price like they can for Beltre.

This deal also lessens the blow of losing Victor Martinez.  Many in Boston were in an uproar after the Sox allowed V-Mart to walk away to Detroit.  You have to keep in mind though that Martinez will be 32 years old this season and is already a poor defensive catcher.  He's an All-Star because of the production that he gives you from a position that generally doesn't offer much offensive punch, but the problem is that he won't actually be a catcher for most of that contract.  With Gonzalez on board it takes away the option of playing him at first base, which means if we kept Martinez for 4 more years he would have been mostly a DH after this season, making less appearances behind the plate as each year progresses.  When you think of his numbers from the DH spot as opposed to the catcher position they suddenly don't look quite as impressive.  Not that they aren't still good numbers, they just aren't worthy of the money it would have taken to keep him.

Plus the Red Sox are far from being done.  There is still work to be done to re-stock the bullpen.  Supposedly they made an offer to Mariano Rivera (which would have likely resulted in trading Papelbon), but you have to wonder how sincere the offer was.  They had to know there was no chance of Mo coming to Boston, so the offer was meant more to raise the price for the Yankees (he agreed to a 2 year $30 million deal this week). 

There is also a likely probability that the Red Sox will acquire either Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth.  The Angels are their biggest competition, and the Yankees could always jump in if they fail to sign Cliff Lee (not because they need an outfielder, but just because they will feel obligated to spend money on a big name).  But it seems reasonable that they will have a shot at one of those two.  I'd prefer Crawford, who is younger and provides a better all around game, but Werth seems more likely.  He'll require less total dollars and years and also combines with Youkilis to give a nice right handed power hitting compliment to the lefty duo of Gonzalez and David Ortiz.

Here is what the Red Sox lineup could potentially look like after this deal, and assuming we include one of the free agent outfielders.

CF - Jacoby Ellsbury

2B - Dustin Pedroia

LF - Carl Crawford/Jayson Werth

1B - Adrian Gonzalez

3B - Kevin Youkilis

DH - David Ortiz

RF - JD Drew

C - Jarrod Salalamacchia

SS - Marco Scutaro

That lineup is even more impressive than the opening day lineup from last season, which included Beltre and Martinez.  There is still some work to be done to make it happen, but the first domino has fallen with the deal for Adrian Gonzalez.  It won't be long before Red Sox Nation gets a chance to see what Gonzalez can do, and when they do they will be glad they have him.