Haven't we seen this before? After a thrilling last second victory over the division "rival" Knicks, the Boston Celtics find themselves on a league best 11 game winning streak. They sit a top the Eastern Conference with their 20-4 record, which trails only San Antonio (21-3) for the NBA's best record. It's an impressive start, but not one that should be unexpected. After all, these Celtics have a record of 16-4 or better in each of the past four seasons during the new Big Three era, which no other franchise in history has accomplished.
If recent history isn't enough to support the notion that this start is no fluke, the stats certainly back them up. Per usual, the Celtics are getting it done on the defensive end. Their +9.42 average scoring margin is third in the league, which is mostly thanks to ranking second best in the league in opponents points per game (92.0). They rank in the top 10 in opponents field goal percentage and opponents 3-point field goal percentage. While turnovers have historically plagued this team, they make up for it by being third in the league in forcing opponents turnovers, giving them a positive differential. Rajon Rondo, who led the league in steals last season, is currently third in the league. Glen Davis has been huge off the bench, forcing turnovers by leading the league in drawing charges. Then there is Kevin Garnett. Finally healthy and with a spring in his step, KG has regained his form as the ferocious defensive leader, leading the league in defensive rating (92.6), helping them become tops in the league in defensive efficiency.
They aren't too shabby on the offense end either. While they may not be one of the league's highest scoring teams, in part because they are in the bottom third of the league in pace, they are still in the top third of the league in offensive efficiency. They lead the league in True Shooting Percentage, which is derived from a formula which calculates field goal percentage with free throws and 3's factored in. Their efficient scoring is helped by great ball movement, which starts with the brilliant play of Rondo. He leads the league in assists by a comfortable margin (13.8). A year after setting the Celtics franchise single season record in assists, he is on pace to have the highest assist average in the league since John Stockton set the record in 1990 (14.5). Rondo is a master at getting great looks for his teammates, as we have already seen a highlight reel full of dishes and alley-oops early in the season.
While the strong start is encouraging, you can't help but feel a bit uneasy about their chances of sustaining this success. Last season the Celtics got off to a similar dominant start, boasting a record of 23-5 after their big win in Orlando on Christmas Day. From that point on the team began to struggle with injuries and inconsistency, leading to a mediocre 27-27 stretch for their remaining games. It was still enough to win the miserable Atlantic Division and give them a top three playoff seed, which helped them stomp through the playoffs en route to a Finals appearance against the Lakers, where they eventually lost a heart-breaking game 7 in LA. If Boston hopes to win a title this year they need to finish stronger in the regular season. That final game being played in LA instead of Boston may have been the deciding factor in a relatively even series, so clinching a top seed to ensure home court advantage would be a big advantage.
Remaining on top is much easier said than done. Last year's team struggled with injuries, an issue that won't go away with an aging team of veterans. The team has already been hit hard with a rash of injuries to key players. Kendrick Perkins is out until mid-season with a knee injury suffered in last year's Finals. Jermaine O'Neal and Shaq, two former All-Star big men that were brought in to help replace him, have struggled to stay healthy, forcing the Celtics to start 4th string center Semih Erdin (a 2nd round pick rookie that was far from a lock to even make the team). Rajon Rondo has missed 5 games already this year with a strained hamstring that could flare up at any time. He's also dealing with a painful bout of planter fasciitis as well as an ankle that he sprained last night. Behind him on the depth chart the options are slim, with Nate Robinson and rarely used rookie Avery Bradely the only options due to a broken wrist suffered by Delonte West earlier this season (after West had already finished a 10 game suspension to open the season). Injuries have thinned out the depth of the roster to a point that could soon haunt them. While they have players that can step in and contribute as starters thanks to their veteran core, doing so depletes the bench, which has struggled this year. While the team would ideally like to limit the minutes of their veteran starters during the regular season, they are often times forced to push their minutes beyond a comfortable limit to stay in games when their thin bench struggles to keep a lead.
While injuries are impossible to predict, it's hard to imagine things getting much worse than what the team has already had to deal with (knock on wood). It's reasonable to expect that as the team gets their players healthier in the second half of the season that they should be able to sustain at least most of the success that we've seen so far. A deeper roster will help improve the inconsistency of the bench and help players find a groove in a more permanent role, finding a rhythm with the teammates they share the floor with. It will also allow the starters to get more rest down the stretch to keep them strong and fresh for the playoffs. The Celtics want to avoid having to sacrifice regular season games and a higher seed to ensure they are rested and healthy for the postseason. While that tactic worked last year, it was done out of necessity. The team would prefer not to have to rely on that plan this year. If they can get healthy then we may be seeing banner 18 raised to the rafters this June.
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