Has any team in baseball made more of an impact this off-season than the Boston Red Sox? It's certainly a hard point to argue in the wake of this past week's blockbuster moves. Red Sox Nation had yet to settle down from their giddy excitement over the pivotal trade for Adrian Gonzalez before the team shocked the baseball world with another blockbuster move - signing free agent LF Carl Crawford to a 7 year $142 million deal.
Crawford joins an already impressive line-up to give the Red Sox what may be the most potent line-up 1-9 that they have had in recent memory. He's coming off a season where he hit .309 with a .356 OBP and .495 SLG with the Tamp Bay Rays. His 19 home runs were a career high, and he'll be moving to Fenway park, where the short right field foul pole could boost those power numbers into the mid-20's. His greatest asset is undoubtedly his speed. He stole 47 bases last season and has averaged 54 steals per season in his career. Only Juan Pierre has more steals since 2003. Combined with Jacoby Ellsbury, they will be a terror to deal with on the basepaths.
His speed is also an important aspect of his game as an outfielder. The mult-time Gold Glover winner is considered to be the best defensive left fielder in baseball. He has the speed to cover a lot of ground and has great instincts. His one negative attribute has been a below average throwing arm, which is negated at Fenway by the Green Monster which shortens left field. The statistical metric known as Defensive Runs Saved, which measures a player's ability to turn batted balls into outs credits Crawford with 14 runs saved last season, which was the best in the league for LFs.
There is just no denying that Crawford is a big time impact player and undoubtedly the best free agent position player available. The Red Sox had a hole to fill in the outfield, as they were understandably hesitant to give an everyday spot to either 38 year old Mike Cameron (if he can even stay healthy all season) or rookie Ryan Kalish (who could use a little more seasoning in Pawtucket). This move sets them up perfectly, with an outfield of Crawford, Ellsbury and Drew for this season. While Ellsbury is still relatively cheap, the trio of outfielders are still a bit pricey. However, Drew's large contract will come off the books after this season, opening up a spot for Kalish in 2012, giving the Sox a young, talented outfield that isn't much more expensive than what they've had in recent years.
Still, the argument can be made that 7 years at over $20 million per season is a lot to commit to any player. Particularly one that doesn't hit for much power, when the home run ball is generally what gets cash registers to ring. However, Crawford's skills can't be measured in the same way as they would be for a slugging home run hitter. His speed and ability to hit for average offer a different set of skills than some of the other top players in the game, but they still bring plenty of value. Crawford's WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 6.9 was tied for 3rd in the AL last season, showing his all around value to his team.
The Red Sox are generally hesitant to offer long term contracts. In fact, this deal (as well as the expected extension for Adrian Gonzalez, which should also be for 7 years) is the longest deal given by the current regime. The largest contract in Red Sox history, given to Manny Ramirez in 2000, was done under the prior ownership. While these moves on the surface seem to be getting away from the team's long term philosophy, it should be noted that both of these players are still young and entering their peak seasons. Crawford is only 29 years old, and will be 35 in the last year of the deal. While athletic speedsters tend to see their skills decline around their mid-30s, the majority of this contract will be during his peak seasons. Even by the end of the contract we should not expect his skills to have declined too much.
Even if the deal is longer and for more money than the Sox were initially comfortable with, the market dictated that they needed to expand their offer after the Washington Nationals gave Jayson Werth a shocking 7 year $126 million deal last week. Werth had been on the Red Sox radar because they expected him to be a cheaper alternative to Crawford that would not require as long of a commitment. Considering Werth is two years older and not quite as talented a player as Crawford, the deal the Nationals gave him is widely considered to be excessive. The signing was a bit of a head scratcher, considering the Nats won't be a contender for at least another year or two, when Stephan Strasburg will return from injury and Bryce Harper may be ready to contribute. It wasn't just a bad move for them though, as the ripple effect throughout free agency impacted other players, including Crawford, who of course would not sign for anything less than what Werth got. As unfair as it may seem for other teams to have to overpay just because another team was foolish enough to do it, that's the way the market works. Compared to the Werth deal, Crawford's contract actually seems reasonable.
Just as Werth's deal impacted Crawford's, the Red Sox have now impacted other teams looking to sign the remaining free agents. The Yankees will feel even more pressure to sign Cliff Lee to ensure they get at least one of the major free agents as well as to keep up with Boston. The Rangers, with new owners and deeper pockets, present the biggest obstacle for them as Texas seems determined to keep Lee. Crawford was expected to be a back-up plan for both of those teams in the event that they can't get Lee, but now he's off the board. The Angels were the other favorites in the Crawford sweepstakes, and they must be devastated over losing out. They must now turn their attention to players like Adrian Beltre and Rafael Soriano - both of whom come with big price tags and are represented by Scott Boras, who the Angel's front office has a bit of an icy relationship with after his client Mark Teixeira spurned them for the Yankees two years ago.
After a depressing 2010 season that was crippled by injuries to many of their core players, the Red Sox were determined to bounce back this season. At the start of last season, assuming a healthy line-up, the Red Sox were projected to be the best team in baseball. Obviously that didn't happen, but with the upgrades they've made this season they will likely be the favorites again - at least on paper.
There is still work to be done, as the team must now turn their attention to re-stocking the bullpen, as they are dangerously thin behind Papelbon and Bard. They will take a long look at free agents like Scott Downs and Brian Fuentes as well as explore some other trade possibilities. It's also unclear how comfortable the team is with their catching duo of Saltalamacchia and Varitek. They are rumored to be interested in Russell Martin, who is available after being non-tendered by the Dodgers.
They also need to fill in some depth for their bench, not only to protect against the injury bug, but to balance the roster with some more right handed power. 5 of the 9 hitters expected to be in their line-up are left handed. That may become a match-up problem against a team like the Yankees, who have a lefty ace in CC Sabathia, as well as Andy Pettite (if he doesn't retire) and they may add another lefty in Cliff Lee. The Sox would be wise to add some right handed hitters that could help fill in against some of those tough lefties for guys like Ortiz and Drew that tend to struggle against them.
There is still a long way to go before Opening Day in April, but the excitement in Red Sox Nation is boiling over. GM Theo Epstein and the Red Sox ownership have given their fans an early Christmas present, and his name is Carl Crawford.
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