5 Steps to fix the Celtics

The silver lining to a season of misery for Celtics fans was supposed to be the promise of a high lottery pick that would help them obtain the next franchise building block.  This is why we put up with the sickening feeling of rooting against our own team en route to a 57 loss season.  We hung in there as the losses piled up because of one reason - hope.

Those hopes may have been crushed last night when luck avoided shining on the Celtics once again at the NBA Draft Lottery.  Boston entered with the 5th best odds, with a 10.3% chance at winning the top pick and a 33.4% chance at a top three pick.  No such luck.

Instead, it was the Cleveland Cavaliers that were the lucky ones.  Now that might be an understatement. Despite having only a minuscule 1.7% chance, Cleveland won the lottery for the second straight year and third time in the last four years.  They now have had a total of five picks that were in the top-4 of the draft over the past four years.  If it's possible to master playing the lottery, the Cavs may have found it.

With Cleveland leapfrogging over them, Boston will have to settle for the 6th pick in the draft.  In a draft like this that is supposed to be deep with talent, picking 6th isn't necessarily a terrible thing.  They will still have the chance to select a good player that projects to be a solid starter with upside for more.  It just probably won't be a franchise player to build around, like they were hoping to get if they managed to snag one of those top three picks.  Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid aren't likely to slide to where they will be picking.

Yet hope is not lost.  There are several options the Celtics could pursue and now that they know where they stand in the draft order, it will make it easier to plan how to attack the off-season.

NBA Playoffs are off to a historic start

It's only been one round, but already these NBA playoffs are off to a historic start.  Hard to believe?  Well, for starters, let's just point to the fact that on Saturday we witnessed three Game 7's on the same day for the first time in league history.  That alone is impressive, but we're just getting started.

No postseason in league history has ever had more than five Game 7's.  This year we've already seen five - and that was just in the first round!  There's a good chance we'll see more along the way.

The first round featured eight games that went to overtime, setting a new record for OT games in a single round.  The record for OT games in an entire postseason is 10, which is another record likely to be broken in the near future.  The epic series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies featured four straight games that went to overtime, which had never happened before.  If not for a suspension that kept forward Zach Randolph out of Game 7 for throwing a punch in the previous game, perhaps the Grizzlies could have pushed for a 5th OT in the series.  Who knows, maybe they would have won.

Except it was the Thunder who won that game thanks to an outstanding performance from Russell Westbrook.  With 27 points, 10 rebounds, and 16 assists, Westbrook became only the second player in league history to record a triple-double in Game 7 of a playoff game twice in his career.  He also did it back in 2011 (Rajon Rondo did it twice in 2012).  Only four other players have ever recorded one triple-double in a Game 7 and it's worth noting that all of them are Hall of Famers (West, Bird, Worthy, Pippen).  It remains to be seen if Westbrook (or Rondo, for that matter) is bound for the Hall one day, but this is certainly an exclusive list to belong to.

Pujols joins the 500 Club

Some players are prone to struggle when they have a career milestone in their sights.  Whether the pressure starts to get to them or they just end up over thinking things, a prolonged drought as the world anxiously awaits the breakthrough moment that makes history isn't unusual.  Albert Pujols is not one of those players. On the verge of one of baseball's most cherished milestones, the Angels slugger went deep in three of his past five games, including a pair of homers last night, to become the 26th member of the 500 Home Run Club.

Rumors of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.  Concerns of Pujols' decline began to grow from the moment he signed an outrageous 10-year, $240 million deal with the Angels.  In his first two seasons in LA, Pujols battled injuries and saw his production sharply decline.  This year he's been healthy so far (knock on wood) and appears poised to remind us how great a hitter he is.

How great has Pujols been in his career?  He's the third youngest player to reach the 500 HR mark (34 years, 96 days) and only seven players joined the club in less at-bats than the 7,390 that it took Pujols.  He's also on the verge of joining even more exclusive territory.  Of the members of the 500 HR Club, only three of them (Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx) hit over .300/.400/.600 for their careers.  Pujols currently sits at .321/.409/.599, barely missing the cut.  Granted we're only 20 games into this season, but he's slugging .619 so far, so if he keeps it up at anything close to that rate he'll join that group by season's end. Of course some inevitable decline at the tail end of his career could drag him back down under those thresholds. Hey, there's a reason only three guys have ever done it!  But the fact that we're talking about it as a possibility is pretty amazing.

NBA MVP Race

Another NBA season is in the books, but before we look ahead to the playoffs and crown a new champion, let's look back on this regular season to determine the league's Most Valuable Player.

The term "most valuable" is open to interpretation, as there are a lot of factors involved.  Essentially how I look at it is a combination of who had the best statistical seasons combined with how much they helped their team win.  So while guys that stuff the stat sheet for lottery bound teams may be great in your fantasy league, they don't belong on this list.

MVP

1. Kevin Durant
2. LeBron James
3. Blake Griffin
4. Stephen Curry
5. Joakim Noah

This was essentially a two man race between Durant and James, with everyone else relegated to a lower tier of contenders.  While it's hard to argue that LeBron isn't the league's best all around player, Durant surpassed him by having a better season.

A tale of two contracts

The two best players in baseball were recently rewarded with historic new contracts.  One of them appears to be a brilliant decision to lock up a once in a generation talent, while the other is destined to be a disaster. These predictions are not based on where each of these MVP caliber performers are at this stage of their careers, but rather the direction they are trending in.

Miguel Cabrera has won the AL MVP award in each of the past two seasons.  In 2012 he also completed the rare accomplishment of capturing the Triple Crown.  There is no denying that he is the best hitter in baseball, which made him a relative bargain at the $44 million total he was owed over the final two years of his contract.  The eight year extension the Detroit Tigers recently gave him is another story.

When including the final two years of his previous deal, the extension makes his contract worth $292 million over 10 years, which eclipses the 10-year, $275 million deal Alex Rodriguez was given by the Yankees in 2008 for the largest deal in league history.  Cabrera will earn an average of $31 million per season over the course of the deal, beating Clayton Kershaw's $30.7 million for the highest annual average.

Cabrera was worth 7.5 Wins Above Replacement (per Baseball-Reference.com) last season.  A win is worth approximately $6 million on the open market.  Forbes estimates that it is actually $5.9 million per win, but even at a more conservative estimate closer to $5 million, Cabrera is still worth the $31 million per year as long as he continue to put up 7.0+ WAR seasons, as he has done in each of the past three years.

Red Sox Preview 2014

It's tough to repeat in baseball.  In fact, no team has won the World Series in consecutive years since the New York Yankees capped a three-peat in 2000.  Prior to that, the Toronto Blue Jays won a pair of titles in 1992-93.  Other than that - well you have to go back to before my lifetime to find when it has happened. The grind of a deep postseason run takes a toll on players that can carry over to the following season.  You may have heard it mentioned as the Hangover Effect - and no, it has nothing to do with whatever certain Red Sox pitchers were doing in the clubhouse in 2011.  Free agency has led to rising salaries that also makes it harder for most teams to keep their core group together.

With that in mind, you could start building a case why the defending champion Boston Red Sox may not enter the season as the favorites to win this season.  Also factor in that they are part the brutal AL East that prevents them from even being a lock to win the division.  The Rays are well stocked and the Yankees have re-stocked.  Baltimore has the talent to hang around and the Blue Jays can't possibly be as disappointing as last season.

Yet that doesn't mean the Sox are in bad shape.  Not by any means.  They start the season in the mix of contenders by bringing back the majority of last year's core.  So how does this team compare with the team that won the title last season?

The NBA's Draft Wheel

With what is expected to be the most loaded NBA draft in over a decade on the horizon, the issue of tanking has once again come to the forefront of discussion around the league.  Critics will point out that intentionally losing games for the purpose of improving their odds of possibly landing the top pick in the draft is a disservice to the fans and a stain on the league.  Others will argue that a high draft pick is the most feasible way for most teams to improve, while developing young talent has more long term value to a lottery team than giving more minutes to a veteran player that might help them win a few more games in the short term.

In the midst of a 21-game losing streak, the Philadelphia 76ers have become the poster child team for tanking this season.  Their plan began to unfold before the season started, when they traded away All-Star point guard Jrue Holiday to New Orleans for a package that included rookie Nerlens Noel, who has yet to set foot on the court this season while recovering from ACL surgery, and a top-5 protected draft pick this year (which is shaping up to be a juicy pick unless the Pelicans have some major lottery luck).  Then at the trade deadline last month they dealt away Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes.  Sure, the second-round picks they netted in those trades could be useful assets in exchange for players that were likely to leave after this season anyway, but those deals were made primarily to strip the roster of veteran talent in order to maximize their chances for a high draft pick this summer.

In response to this perceived issue, people around the league are exploring changes that would prevent tanking.  The lottery system was put in place to give teams less incentive to tank, but apparently that's not enough for some people.  Since Adam Silver has taken over as the new Commissioner, he has been on the look out for innovative ways to improve the league - which includes ideas to revamp the draft system.

The sun is setting for Steve Nash

This isn't how it was supposed to end.  Inevitably, every star begins to dim at some point.  Talent fades as a player's body begins to betray them in the losing battle against Father Time's undefeated streak, but we always hope for great players to have the chance to go out on their own terms.  Not like this.

This week, Lakers coach Mike D'Antoni suggested that we have likely seen the last of Steve Nash on a basketball court this season.  His rationale was justifiable - Nash isn't completely healthy and with the team far from playoff contention, it's in the best interest of the franchise to develop young players by giving them a chance to flourish.

So if Nash is actually shut down for the rest of the season, is it possible that this is the end of his brilliant career?  Nash still has one year left on his current contract worth $9.7 million, but as he discussed in the documentary series "The Finish Line" on Grantland.com, there is real concern that he could be waived this summer under the NBA's new stretch provision.  Essentially, this would mean that the Lakers can cut him after this season and spread next year's salary over a three year period.  So instead of counting $9.7 million against their cap next season, he would count for only approximately $3.2 million in each of the next three seasons.  If the Lakers do waive Nash, it's unclear if the 40-year old point guard, who has struggled to stay healthy, will be able to find a new home.

Things I Noticed: Super Bowl XLVIII

Super Bowl XLVIII pits the league's best offense against its best defense.  Does the old saying about defense winning championships still hold true in today's NFL?  Nobody pressures the QB as well as the Seahawks, who manage to do so while rarely blitzing.  That means they have more guys back in coverage, led by their secondary known as the Legion of Boom.  But does Peyton Manning have too many weapons at his disposal for even the league's best pass defense to handle?

This is the fifth time in Super Bowl history that the league's top offense has faced the top defense.  The defensive team has won three of the previous four such meetings.

Here are some things I noticed this week:

• With the game being played in the home of the Giants and Jets, the league invited New York
  
  legends Phil Simms and Joe Namath to join in on the field for the coin toss.  Namath screwed up the coin toss by flipping it before Seattle could call heads or tails.  At least he still looked stylish, bundled up in a heavy fur coat, despite kick-off temperatures around 48 degrees.
• A bad snap led to a safety on the first play of the game. Manning was moving up toward the line of scrimmage to make a protection change, but Manny Ramirez missed the call and sailed the snap over Manning's head.  At 12 seconds, that's the fastest score in Super Bowl history.  The previous record was Devin Hester's kick-off return in Super Bowl XLI, which took 14 seconds.
• Pete Carroll wasted an early challenge by questioning the spot of the ball after Russell Wilson scrambled toward the sideline and made a diving attempt for the first down marker.  The ball was re-spotted closer to the first down after review, but still came up short.  Seattle settled for a field goal on the drive.

NBA All-Star Picks

Last week the NBA announced the results of the fan voting that selected the starters for this year's All-Star game, while the rest of the rosters will be revealed this Thursday.  The voting process always becomes a popularity contest, but the fans did a reasonable job of selecting a deserving group of starters.  With the exception of Kobe Bryant, who was selected despite playing in only six games due to injury, because.. well - he's Kobe.

Injuries have robbed the league of many familiar names, including Derrick Rose, Brook Lopez, and Al Horford.  All of these former All-Stars are likely out for the season, while Rajon Rondo's recent return from an ACL injury suffered last year prevents him from accumulating enough of a sample size to warrant consideration on on this list.

If it were up to me to pick the All-Star rosters, they would likely end up a bit differently from what the final rosters will end up being.  So here are my picks for this year's game.  Keep in mind that the requirements are for the starters to include two guards and three frontcourt players.  The reserves must include the same, along with two wild card spots that can come from any position.

Eastern Conference

Starters
G - Kyle Lowry
G - John Wall
FC - Paul George
FC - LeBron James
FC - Carmelo Anthony

Kyrie Irving was voted as a starter, but Lowry and Wall are both more deserving.  Irving has a minuscule lead in PER (20.06), but trails in most other advanced stats, including TS%, Assist Ratio and Estimated Wins Added.  He also remains a poor defender, while Wall ranks 5th in the league in steals and Lowry is the best overall defender of the three.  Lowry has flourished since Toronto jettisoned Rudy Gay to the West Coast, increasing his offense and leading a surprising Raptors squad to an unlikely Atlantic Division lead.   Wall is the leader of a steadily improving Wizards team that has hovered around the .500 mark - which sadly is enough to place them in the middle of the playoff race in the pathetic Eastern Conference.  Meanwhile, at what point do we start holding it against Irving that he's never played for a winning team?

The frontcourt selections are easy, with LeBron James leading the way with a Conference best PER (28.84)

and the other two right behind him.  If you discount the injured Brook Lopez - James, Anthony and George make up the East leaders in PER (as well as headline the All-Stars for guys with last names that could be first names!).  LeBron has been called out for coasting through the season at times this year, but that's a tribute to the high expectations we hold him too.  He's still far and away the best player in the East.  Melo was headed toward another All-Star spot even before his historic 62 point game last week.  He's second in the league in scoring (27.2 points per game) and has increased his rebounding to a career high 9.0 boards per game. George is following up his breakout season by taking another leap to Superstar status, while leading the team with the league's best record.  He's improved his scoring (8th in the league), while remaining one of the  league's better wing stoppers for an elite defense.

Belichick's best year

Bill Belichick has won three Super Bowls in his 14-year tenure as head coach of the New England Patriots, while coaching his team to the big game on two other occasions.  This year wasn't one of them, as the Patriots fell short to the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship game.  Yet, when you factor in everything this team went through, you can't help but wonder if this may have actually been Belichick's most impressive coaching performance.

Having a Hall of Fame quarterback to run your offense certainly helps any team to be a playoff contender, but let's be clear.  As great as Tom Brady is, he can't do it alone.  Given the talent around him this season, the Patriots had no business winning 12 games, earning the AFC's second seed and making it to within one game of a sixth Super Bowl appearance.  Yet, remarkably, they did it.

It's been no secret this season that New England's offense struggled through a drastic overhaul this season. When the season kicked off back in September, Brady was missing his top five most targeted receivers from last season!  Try finding another team whose quarterback ever had to deal with that.  Danny Woodhead fled to San Diego in free agency, leaving Shane Vereen to take his place.  The third year RB missed half the season with injury, yet still managed 47 catches in only 8 games.  Brandon Lloyd was cut after one mildly disappointing season and decided to retire rather than return at a discounted rate.

Things I Noticed: Conference Championship Round

We're down to the final four teams, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.  Which two teams will be heading to New Jersey?

Here are some things I noticed this week:

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

• Peyton Manning set a franchise postseason record with 32 completions on his way to throwing
  
  for 400 yards and 2 TDs to lead the Broncos to victory.  It was Manning's third career postseason game with 400+ yards, tying him with Drew Brees for the most ever.  
• When these teams met in New England back in November, the Patriots prevailed in overtime, but this game was completely different.  In the regular season match up, Manning threw for only 150 yards, while relying on their running game to move the ball.  Knowshown Moreno ran for 224 yards that week, but was held to only 59 yards in this game.
• Last time, these teams combined for 7 turnovers in the game.  This time, neither team threw an INT or lost a fumble.  New England did turn the ball over on downs once after a failed 4th down attempt, but that was the game's only turnover.
• For the second straight season, the Patriots defense fell apart in the AFC Championship game after Aqib Talib was knocked out of the game with an injury.  Talib had been doing a respectable job shadowing Demaryius Thomas, until a collision with Wes Welker forced Talib out with a knee injury.  Without Talib, the Patriots pass defense struggled, particularly with containing Thomas, who finished with 7 catches for 134 yards and a TD.

Things I Noticed: Divisional Round

It took us four and a half months to confirm what we already suspected entering the season - that the Seahawks, Broncos, Patriots and 49ers are the league's four best teams.  With the Divisional Round now in the books, we now know that those are the four teams that will battle it out in the Conference Championships for the right to advance to the Super Bowl.

This was actually the first time since the 2004 postseason that the Divisional Round did not feature at least one underdog pulling off an upset win.  Each of the four teams that won this week entered the game considered favorites (based on the game lines set in Vegas).

Here are some things I noticed this week:

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

• The Seahawks overcame a quiet performance from Russell Wilson (103 passing yards) to hang on to a victory over the Saints.  Marshawn Lynch did the heavy lifting, setting a franchise postseason record by rushing for 140 yards and a pair of scores.  His second touchdown came on a 31-yard run with under three minutes to go in the 4th quarter to put the game away.
• New Orleans made things interesting in the end when Drew Brees connected with Marques Colston with 26 seconds left make it a one possession game.  The late score proved to be more than just a stat padding effort in garbage time, as the Saints followed it up by recovering an on-side kick to give themselves a chance.  The game would end after Colston caught a 13-yard pass along the side line. Instead of stepping out of bounds to stop the clock to give his team one last shot at the end zone from Seattle's 38 yard line, Colston tried to throw a cross field lateral to an open teammate.  Except the pass went forward, which triggered a penalty for an illegal forward pass.  That penalty came with a 10 second run off, which ended the game.  Poor decision making by Colston and even poorer execution. 

Things I Noticed: Wild Card Round

It was a wild weekend in the Wild Card round to open the postseason.  Three road teams advanced to the next round, including two #6 seeds.  Three of the four games came down to a one possession game, with two of them ending on last second field goals.

Here are some things I noticed this week:

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts

• Andrew Luck (443 yards, 4 TDs) overcame three turnovers to lead another miraculous comeback.
  
  The Colts 28-point comeback is the second largest comeback in postseason history.  In only his second season in the league, Luck already has eleven 4th quarter or overtime comeback victories, which is more than any other QB in the league over the last two seasons.
• T.Y. Hilton set a franchise postseason record with 13 catches for 224 yards and 2 TDs.  His second came when he burned his coverage for a 64-yard game winning TD with just over four minutes left in the game.  It was the first time the Colts had led all game, but it was a lead they would not relinquish.
• Hilton did a lot of his damage after cornerback Brandon Flowers was knocked out of the game with a concussion.  The absence of one of the Chiefs top defensive players helped fuel the Colts comeback.