The Boston Red Sox now have their own young star.
Xander Bogaerts made his major league debut last night during the Sox trip to San Francisco. He went 0-3 with two ground outs and a strikeout, before being replaced late in the game by Stephen Drew. Not exactly the coming out party Sox fans were hoping for. When Bogaerts came to bat with the bases loaded, we all hoped we'd see a Daniel Nava type debut, with a grand slam to punctuate his arrival. But it was not to be. Not yet anyway. But it's coming.
Bogaerts debuted as the top prospect in the Red Sox system and is widely regarded as one of the top position player prospects in the league. He started the season in the minors, hitting .311/.407/.502 at Double-A Portland, then .284/.369/.453 at Triple-A Pawtucket. Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider that at only 20 years old, Bogaerts was the youngest player in the Eastern League and International League. He's also a natural short stop, which is a position that it's typically difficult to find quality hitters of this caliber. He started learning to play third base during his time in Pawtucket as a way to help speed his path to the majors, since the Sox at the time had a pretty glaring hole at the position and were more stable at SS. As he continues to grow and fill out a bit more he may eventually need to move over to the hot corner anyway, but with a bat like his, they'll find room for him either way.
Bogaerts impending arrival and his ability to field either position was a big factor in the team's decision to trade away the slick fielding Jose Iglesias at the trade deadline in the deal for Jake Peavy that helped solidify Boston's starting rotation. With Bogaerts on the way, there wasn't room for Iglesias, no matter how impressive he is flashing the leather.
Boston has hit a bit of a slide lately. Last night's loss dropped them to 9-10 in the month of August, allowing the Tampa Bay Rays to draw even in a tight AL East race. If this trend keeps up, it will be the only month so far this season where they've had a losing record. To help reverse that momentum the team needed to shake things up in hopes of finding a spark. Bogaerts could be that spark. We saw how promoting Machado last year helped Baltimore's run to secure a Wild Card spot. This season, all eyes have been on Puig, who's June debut helped fuel the Dodgers from the basement of the NL West to their current 7.5 game lead in the division. Bogaerts is on that same level as far as being a highly touted prospect that has the potential to make an impact down the stretch for a Boston team likely to be locked in a battle with the Rays for the division.
Now just to temper some of those expectations, the devil's advocate points out that history has shown not all star prospects shine right out of the gate. Even the immortal Mike Trout scuffled to a .220/.281/.390 slash line in an unspectacular 40 game debut in 2011 before catching fire in his first full season last year. At such a young age, Bogaerts may take his lumps as well, as he gets his feet wet. What we do know is that when players excel at the minor league levels at an age younger than their peers, as Bogaerts has done, it tends to be a good sign for their potential as a future star at the major league level. Even if his fist audition is more Trout than Puig, it's clear that Bogaerts will have a very bright future.
In the meantime, the addition of Bogaerts will almost certainly provide the Sox with a boost down the stretch given what he's replacing. The third base combination of Brock Holt (.203/.275/.237) and Brandon Snyder (.209/.227/.419) proved to be a below replacement level disaster. Will Middlebrooks was in the midst of a nightmare season when he was demoted back to AAA. Since he returned 10 games ago his bat has been scorching to the tune of a .452/.538/.645 slash line. Those numbers aren't sustainable for anyone, but given his early season struggles there are legitimate concerns that he may be in for a steep regression. For now, Bogaerts will platoon at SS, filling in for Drew against left handed pitching. Drew, like most of the Sox hitters, has struggled this season against lefties, so adding another right handed bat for those match-ups will strengthen the lineup. During his time in Pawtucket, Bogaerts crushed lefties (.298/.452/.474). The rest of the time he will likely split time at Third with Middlebrooks, especially after his current hot streak begins to cool off. Even if that only gets Bogaerts into the lineup about 3-4 times per week, his presence could be worth at least an extra win over the final 6 weeks. One win could end up being the difference between winning the division or having to fight through a one game playoff as a Wild Card.
As a young SS capable of annually swatting 20-25 HRs while batting around the .300 mark, Bogaerts projects to have multiple All-Star appearances in his future - especially if he sticks at SS rather than moving over to Third base, which is ultra deep in the AL. His ceiling may even be at the MVP level. Yes, he's that good! With the rising costs of acquiring players on the free agent market, combined with the more punitive luxury tax penalties, it is now more vital than ever to draft cost effective star talent rather than spend lavishly on free agents (remember Carl Crawford?) or raid the farm system to try to trade for one (Adrian Gonzalez, anyone?). Boston will have Bogaerts on a cheap deal for the next few years before arbitration starts to inflate his salary and can retain control of him for at least a half dozen years before he reaches free agency. Given the Red Sox track record with young star players, they will likely lock him up to a longer term deal before that, which will save them millions in the long run. As he enters his prime and develops into one of the game's better players, he could eventually take over the mantle as the face of the franchise. David Ortiz will be long gone by then and Dustin Pedroia will eventually start to decline.
There is no way to be certain that Bogaerts will ever reach his vast potential. That's part of the beauty of sports is that we never really know for sure what will happen (otherwise I'd be off getting rich on bets in Vegas right now!). What we do know is that Bogaerts has the physical tools, pedigree and track record to become a super star. It remains to be seen if he can tap into all that potential, but I for one am excited to find out.
Xander Bogaerts is the future of the Red Sox and the future is here.
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