Then you realize something - football season is almost here!
Maybe the thought of another season starting doesn't stir the same level of excitement for all fan bases (how excited can you really get if you live in Cleveland?), but here in New England there is plenty to be excited about. The Patriots come with high expectations, so the start of a new season is just another chance to get back on the path for another Super Bowl.
Any time you have a team led by Tom Brady and coached by Bill Belichick you can consider yourself in the mix of contenders. However, this season there seems to be some legitimate concerns due to the amount of change this team has gone through during the off-season - particularly with the offense. That's without even mentioning the PR disasters that plagued the franchise this off-season, which could continue to pose as a distraction.
The Pats will likely open the season missing their top five leading receivers from last season. That amount of turnover in one season is unfathomable! Brady's most reliable targets were either allowed to flee in free agency (Welker, Woodhead), cut from the roster (Lloyd - who mysteriously remains unsigned) or, much like Brick Tamland, may have killed a guy (Hernandez - although he probably didn't use a trident). Rob Gronkowski is still on the roster, but his injury status remains uncertain for the season opener. It's possible he'll even open the season on the PUP list, making him ineligible to play for six weeks.
How their replacements produce in an offense that is notoriously difficult for new players to pick up will go a long way towards determining where New England fits among the list of contenders in the AFC. After being the trend setters that started the craze of using two tight end sets that copycats around the league have tried to duplicate, the Patriots may need to shift back to more three or four receiver sets. At least until Gronk is healthy, but even then they'll need another TE to step up to fill the void left by Hernandez.
The WR depth chart begins with Danny Amendola. The former Ram has long been considered a Welker clone. Both were undrafted free agents out of Texas Tech that work primarily out of the slot. Also, they are both small white dudes, so you can already see the similarities. Amendola (5'11'', 195) is slightly bigger, with more top end speed to get down field, so he may not be used exactly the same way that Welker was. However, he is expected to carry a similar workload and should be the team's most targeted receiver. Critics will point out that he has never had a season that came close to matching what we became accustomed to expecting from Welker during his time in New England, when he led the league in catches from 2007-2012. Then again, neither had Welker before he came here. It's amazing the wonders playing with Brady can do for a receivers career. The other common concern is Amendola's injury history. He's played in only a total of 12 games over the past two seasons. Personally, I think the concerns are overblown. Amendola (2011) and Welker (2009) both have season ending injuries in their careers. The only difference is that Amendola's injury happened in Week 1 and Welker's was near the end of the season. Unless it can be proved that Amendola's bones are as brittle as toothpicks, his past injuries aren't predictive of future ones. If he remains healthy for at least most of the season, he should be able to produce similar numbers to what Welker would have if he had stayed.
Behind Amandola, the depth chart gets a bit more unpredictable, with a stable of rookie receivers getting into the mix. Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins have looked good in training camp and are expected to be key additions to the passing game. 4th round pick Josh Boyce hasn't gotten as much hype this summer, but was more productive than his fellow rookies in college and should get a chance to contribute. Rookie TE Zach Sudfeld may have moved up ahead of veterans Daniel Fells and Jake Ballard (who hasn't quite returned to form following a knee injury that cost him all of last season). Sudfeld has impressed the coaching staff and could make an impact while the team waits for Gronk to get back up to speed.
So long as we're talking about the offense, we'd be remiss not to mention the addition of Tim Tebow. Everyone's favorite third string QB was bound to draw some attention at training camp, but give the Patriots credit for keeping a lid on Tebowmania, for the most part. Compared to his stops in Denver and New York, the Pats haven't let the Tebow circus become a headline grabbing distraction. The question now is how he fits with the team. It's clear that no team in the league considers him worthy of being a starting QB, but he's still better than a lot of teams back ups. If something were to happen to Brady and Ryan Mallet (like both of them finding themselves in a dark alley with Bernard Pollard?), the Patriots are better equipped to deal with such a devastating loss than any other team would be. The point is, don't expect much of an impact from Tebow this year. Maybe we'll see him brought in for a few trick plays, but how often do you really want to take Brady off the field? Plus, if Tebow subs in for Brady on the occasional play, the opposing defense knows right away that you are up to something, so you're not really fooling anyone. It's not as if you're going to let Tebow throw the ball, right (right?!). Maybe he and Brady can both be on the field to really confuse the defense. Or he could be used in punt protection. If nothing else, with the read-option offense on the rise across the NFL, Tebow's ability to run that type of offense could prove useful in practice when the Patriots defense prepares for teams that utilize those schemes. If the Patriots find themselves in the Super Bowl against a team like the 49ers, Seahawks or Redskins, Tebow's greatest contribution may come on the practice field. If Belichick considers Tebow worthy of taking a valuable roster sport, you can count on him finding a way to get some use out of him while playing to his strengths.
The much maligned Patriots defense returns mostly intact, which may not be a good thing considering they ranked 25th last season in yards allowed. However, keep in mind how misleading that stat can be. Since the Pats offense plays at such a fast pace, it means teams end up with more possessions over the course of a game. That gives opposing teams more chances to gain yardage. Plus, when you consider their opponents are often playing from behind, they gain a lot of their yardage in garbage time. New England was 9th in points allowed last season, which is the stat that really matters most. They were also 2nd in the NFL in takeaways and were one of only two teams (along with Chicago) to record 20+ interceptions and fumbles. That may not make them an elite defense by any means, but they are a lot closer to the top half than they are to the bottom of the league. Don't overlook the value of returning the majority last year's starters either. A sophomore jump from Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower will improve the pass rush and they beefed up the front line by adding Tommy Kelly to plug up the middle next to Vince Wilfork. A full season of Aqib Talib will be a difference maker for the secondary. The Pats defense drastically improved after he was acquired mid-season and didn't fall apart until their crushing loss in the AFC Championship game after Talib was forced to exit early with an injury. Alfonso Dennard's legal issues blur what the other side of the secondary will look like, with the team potentially having to once again rely on Kyle Arrington in a starting role that he's shown to be over matched playing in the past. Hopefully Dennard is not forced to miss much time so they won't have to worry about that. Devin McCourty can focus on transitioning to safety full time and should pair nicely with some combination of Adrian Wilson and Steve Gregory. It's not a stretch to think this could be a top 10 defense, which is really all you need when you have an explosive offense like the Patriots do.
The Patriots may experience some growing pains early on as they adjust to all the changes and incorporate a new batch of receivers that are still working on gaining Brady's trust (not an easy thing to do). Luckily they play in a poor division that lacks a legitimate challenger to their AFC East division crown. They will start the season with some soft match ups against the Bills and Jets, two push over teams that shouldn't pose much of a threat. They need to take advantage of the early schedule to sort things out and build chemistry before the schedule gets tougher. With so many moving pieces there is the potential for a slow start, which might hinder their chances of finishing with one of the top two seeds in the AFC, but won't drop them from the top of the division. Mark them down for 10 or 11 wins and hope they are firing on all cylinders by playoff time. Then hope Brady has enough left to muster another brilliant effort to get them to his sixth Super Bowl appearance.
New England may not be the favorite to come out of the AFC, but they are in the mix near the top of contenders and you can never count out TB12, no matter what targets he has to throw to. So get excited. It's almost time for football!
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