2013 NFL Preview

Winter is coming!  No wait, that's a line from Game of Thrones.  Football season is coming!  Yeah, that's more like it.  What's the most exciting part about a new season beginning?  No replacement refs!  So we're already off to a better start than last year. With the first kick-off of the regular season right around the corner, it's time to look at some predictions for the upcoming season.

AFC East
New England Patriots (11-5)
Miami Dolphins (9-7)
Buffalo Bills (5-11)
New York Jets (4-12)

The Patriots still rule over the division with an iron fist, but their grasp may be slipping. You may have heard this before, but Tom Brady's top five targets from last season won't be on the field when the Patriots open in Week 1.  Of the 401 passes Brady completed last season, only about 10% of those completions were caught by a player still on the roster.  Granted, that doesn't include the production of Rob Gronkowski, who should return to the team at some point.  We just don't know when.  The rest of the Patriots top targets from last season were either released, walked away as free agents or probably murdered a guy.  The good news is that the offense does still have some options.  Danny Amendola has long been considered a Wes Welker clone and should be able to handle the majority of the production lost from his departure.  Rookie receivers Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins have looked good in camp and in the pre-season.  With Brady under center, the offense may not struggle as much as you might expect, especially if Gronk doesn't miss too much time.  Even if developing chemistry with these new receivers leads to a slow start, the Patriots are dominant enough to win the division.


Of course that says as much about the dismal state of the rest of the division as it does about the Patriots. Miami is considered an up and coming team based on the amount of money they spent in free agency, but how often do spending sprees work out in the NFL?  The addition of Mike Wallace gives Ryan Tannehill a deep threat to work with, which should help with his development, but he's still a long ways from being an elite QB.  The season ending knee injury to Dustin Keller deprives them of one of their key pick ups.  As many headlines as they grabbed with their free agent signings, they also lost a lot too - Reggie Bush, Jake Long and Carlos Dansby, to name a few.  The Bills and Jets both have QB issues and may end up relying on rookies to lead them.  Expect some growing pains there.

AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers ( 8-8)
Cleveland Browns (6-10)

The Bengals have made the playoffs each of the past two years as a Wild Card, but this could be the year they make the jump to division winner.  Andy Dalton may still be a middle of the pack QB, but he's got one of the league's most explosive targets in AJ Green to throw to.  The offense also added promising rookies in TE Tyler Eifert and RB Giovani Bernard in the early rounds of the draft.  The Bengals also have quietly built one of the more underrated defenses in the league, led by Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap.  After finishing in the top 8 in points and yards allowed last year, this group could sneak into the top 5 in the league this year.

Well, Joe Flacco got paid!  Unfortunately, it came at the expense of the rest of the roster.  The defending Super Bowl champs saw their roster pillaged this off-season as they found Flacco's raise left little left over to retain their other free agents.  Stealing Elvis Dumervil from Denver was a coup that serves as the saving grace of their off-season, but his impact is offset by all the other losses.  They gave away leading receiver Anquan Boldin for virtually nothing, just to save the cap space, but the biggest loss of all has to be the retirement of Ray Lewis.  Sure, he was far past his prime, but the loss of the emotional leadership of the heart and soul of their defense will be missed.  The Steelers defense allowed the least amount of yards last season, but their stars are getting old and ready to decline.  Their running game is set to rely on a rookie RB that is already injured, which puts more pressure on the passing game to carry them.  Problem is, the offensive line hasn't been able to protect Ben Rothlisberger from getting creamed and he lost his best receiver this off-season.  They can still be dangerous when things are going right, but too much could go wrong to consider them a contender.  Cleveland is a popular sleeper team with an improving defense.  The offense has some good  young talent with Trent Richardson, Greg Little and Jordan Cameron.  They also still have Brandon Weeden as their QB though, so let's not get too carried away.  They could surprise us and move out of the basement, but they aren't a threat to win the division.

AFC South
Houston Texans (12-4)
Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
Tennessee Titans (7-9)
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)

The Texans are gunning for the top seed in the AFC, which would be key for a franchise that has never won a road playoff game before.  Snagging home field advantage could put them on the path to their first ever Super Bowl appearance.  To do that, they'll need Arian Foster and Andre Johnson to avoid the injury bug. Not that we can rely on that, but on paper this offense looks great and the defense will remain in the top 10 as long as JJ Watt is wrecking havoc all over the field.  He led the league with 20.5 sacks last year and earned his reputation for swatting balls as the line of scrimmage.

If the Texans stumble at all, the Colts are poised to jump ahead of them.  QB Andrew Luck is ready to make huge strides in his second season.  He can start by improving his TD-INT ratio (23-18).  Luck threw for 4,374 yards last season.  That total could drop if the team isn't forced to play from behind late in games as often, but reuniting with Pep Hamilton, his former QB coach from Stanford that the Colts hired as their new offensive coordinator, should help make him a more efficient passer.  The Titans improved O-line will help Chris Johnson's chances of regaining his status as an elite RB, but don't expect him to get back to another 2K yard season.  The Jaguars have their own star RB in need of a bounce back season in Maurice Jones-Drew, but even if MJD does have a big year, it'll be about the only good thing you can say about the Jags.

AFC West
Denver Broncos (12-4)
Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
San Diego Chargers (8-8)
Oakland Raiders (4-12)

Peyton Manning proved by the end of last season that he's back from the four neck surgeries that nearly derailed his career.  The addition of Wes Welker will help make their offense one of the league's most explosive.  Welker has more catches than any receiver in the league since 2007 and he joins an offense that has two receivers that both topped 1,000 yards last year.  The defense could struggle early on, with Von Miller serving a 6 game suspension and Champ Bailey hindered by a foot injury.  That's in addition to the loss of Elvis Dumervil, who fled to Baltimore after a paperwork mishap led to him unexpectedly becoming a free agent.  It's hard to imagine Denver being an elite defense again, at least early in the season.  That could cost them a shot at one of the top seeds.

Despite a pitiful two wins last season, the Chiefs sent six players to the Pro Bowl.  Clearly there is talent on this roster, but last season that talent just didn't happen to play QB.  With a Total QBR of 36.5, Matt Cassell was one of the league's worst signal callers last season.  His replacement, Brady Quinn, somehow managed to do even worse.  Enter Alex Smith.  Now you can understand why the 49ers allowed Smith to move on given the rise of Colin Kaepernick, but Smith is still a quality QB.  He may not be elite, but his 70.1 Total QBR was 7th among qualified starters last year and he completed over 70% of his passes.  Factor in the coaching upgrade with Andy Reid and the Chiefs are a dark horse candidate for a playoff spot.  The Chargers may be good enough to hang around in the race, but not good enough to pose a real threat. Oakland shipped out Carson Palmer, for a much lower price tag than they paid to trade from him a year and a half ago and replaced him by trading for Matt Flynn, a career backup.  So that probably won't go well.

NFC East
Washington Redskins (11-5)
New York Giants (9-7)
Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
Dallas Cowboys (8-8)

I'd feel a lot better about this Redskins pick if we knew how RGIII's knee was going to hold up, but all signs point toward him being ready to start the season.  It'd be nice if we could count on another big year from Alfred Morris too, but given how Mike Shanahan treats his running backs, there's no telling what he'll do with his backfield.  Despite coming off a 1,600 yard season, Shanahan may decide to bench him on a whim.

The rest of the division is packed tightly and I could see them finishing in any order, with any one of them winning the division if RGIII goes down again and the Redskins slip.  Eli Manning still has Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz to throw to, which is enough on it's own to at least remain competitive.  Even in their Super Bowl years, the Giants haven't been a dominant regular season team and there is little reason to believe they will be this year.  As much credit as he deserves for winning those rings, Eli has really only ever had a couple great statistical season in his career and last year wasn't one of them.  They can be dangerous if they get on a roll heading into the playoffs, but they have to actually make the postseason first.  They've only done that in 5 of Eli's 9 seasons and outside of the two championship seasons they failed to win a playoff game in any of their other playoff appearances.  The Eagles have been a massive disappointment the past couple years, but I'm interested to see how they take to Chip Kelly's fast paced offense.  It seems impossible to run an offense in the NFL at the same pace his Oregon teams played, but something similar to the pace the Patriots play at seems reasonable.  Could Michael Vick flourish in that type of offense?  Then there's the Cowboys, who seem to put up respectable numbers but fail to win games when it counts.  Tony Romo isn't a bad QB and the close losses aren't all his fault, but he's yet to show us a reason to count on him.  So of course Dallas rewarded him with a monster contract extension with a whopping $40 million in guaranteed cash!  Only in the mind of Jerry Jones does that  make sense.

NFC North
Green Bay Packers (13-3)
Chicago Bears (10-6)
Detroit Lions (8-8)
Minnesota Vikings (6-10)

Aaron Rodgers still holds the belt for the top QB in the league and he has a loaded arsenal of weapons at his disposal.  Randall Cobb is quickly emerging as his top target and should flirt with the 100 catch mark this season.  James Jones led the league in receiving TDs last year.  That won't happen again, but it just means those scores will be spread around more.  They may even have a decent running game this year with the addition of rookie RB Eddie Lacy.  That will help balance their offense and keep their defense off the field longer.

The Bears defense led the league in takeaways (44) and were the only NFC team to record 20+ INTs and 20+ fumble recoveries.  New England is the only other NFL team to accomplish that.  Scoring double digit defensive TDs doesn't seem sustainable, but they are a team that is highly skilled at capitalizing on opponent's mistakes.  The Lions have an elite offense led by Calvin Johnson, who is coming off a record setting season (1,964 receiving yards).  A meager 5 TDs was a disappointment for the stud receiver, but Johnson was somehow tackled at the 1 yard line an astonishing six times last season.  That's not likely to happen again, so double digit TDs are within his reach.  What's not within reach though?  Adrian Peterson breaking the 2K rushing yard mark again.  Only half a dozen players reached that milestone before AP did it last year and there is historical evidence with each of his predecessors of a steep decline following their career years. Perhaps nothing is impossible for AP, given what he accomplished coming off a devastating knee injury, but it's safe to assume that he won't be quite as impressive.  The Vikings rode that outstanding performance to ten wins that barely squeezed them into a playoff spot.  Without a near record breaking effort from their stud RB, it's hard to imagine the Vikings coming close to that level of success.  Christian Ponder certainly isn't putting the team on his back to get them there.  He showed some potential in the first half of last season, but once Percy Harvin was lost to a season ending injury, Ponder fell apart.  Now Harvin is in Seattle and has been replaced by a past-his-prime Greg Jennings.  Maybe he improves a little, but not enough to offset AP's inevitable decline.

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons (12-4)
New Orleans Saints (11-5)
Tampa Bay Bucs (10-6)
Carolina Panthers (8-8)

Now that the pressure of winning his first playoff game is off his shoulders, Matt Ryan is setting his sites on loftier goals.  The Falcons will once again be in the mix for the top seed with an explosive offense that includes two of the games best receivers - Julio Jones and Roddy White.  They've added Stephen Jackson to their backfield, upgrading from the corpse of Michael Turner to a viable rushing threat.  Atlanta likes to run when they get in close to the goal line, and Jackson is a much more capable scoring threat than the quickly deteriorating Turner was last season.  He can even catches passes too, making him a true three down back.  Not sure how the Falcons bribed Tony Gonzalez into holding off retirement for another year, but getting the future Hall of Fame tight end back just makes this offense that much more loaded.

Speaking of high powered offenses, the Saints will be right there with them.  With Drew Brees under center and Sean Payton returning to the sidelines as head coach, expect a much more efficient passing attack this season.  With the burden of bounty-gate finally behind them, the Saints can focus on trying to reclaim the division throne.  Darrell Revis is capable of turning Tampa's pass defense from one of the worst in the league to among the best.  Ok, well at least above average.  That may be good enough to contend for a playoff spot given the talent on offense.  Doug Martin is looking to follow up on an impressive rookie season, where he established himself as one of the best RBs in the league.  A healthier and improved offensive line will only help him be even better, while also protecting Josh Freeman in the pocket for those deep routes to Vincent Jackson.  Cam Newton is a very talented player and an elite option if you're looking for a QB in your fantasy league (those rushing yards really add up to major points!).  I'm just not sold on his ability to lead a winning team yet.  The talent is there, but he needs to show he's capable of doing more than putting up stats.  I'm even less sold on head coach Ron Rivera.  He made more than his share of mind boggling decisions that cost them some close games.  Has he learned from his mistakes, or will he continue to blow it?

NFC West
Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
San Francisco 49ers (11-5)
Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
St. Louis Rams (5-11)

Seattle allowed a league best 15.3 points per game last year with a defense quickly emerging as one of the Richard Sherman needs to learn when to keep quiet, but his mouth isn't what makes him one of the league's best cover corners.  Russell Wilson was the surprise breakout star of last season, going from a third round afterthought to a young star that found his name in the mix for Rookie of the Year.  Percy Harvin was supposed to give him an elite weapon to work with, but he's already injured (surprise, surprise) and will start the season on the PUP list, missing at least the first six weeks (and likely more).  Wilson did just fine without him last year and will continue to shine in Harvin's absence.  Marshawn Lynch is still one of the game's best threats - in the backfield and to a bag of Skittles.  Factor in the league's best home field advantage and the Seahawks are looking at getting back to the top of the division.
league's best.

The one team with any hope of thwarting Seattle would be the Niners.  Last season they rode a break out season from Colin Kaepernick to a Super Bowl appearance and will be in the hunt for the playoffs again this year.  Assuming of course they can avoid the dreaded Super Bowl curse that has plagued many teams that were the runner up in the Big Game the previous year.  Kaepernick proved how effective his version of the read option offense can be, but he may have some trouble adjusting to losing top receiver Michael Crabtree, who is out for at least most of the season due to a heel injury.  Vernon Davis is their best remaining option, but once Kaepernick took over mid-season, Davis disappeared from the offense.  He re-emerged for a couple games in the postseason, but is that enough evidence to suggest Kaepernick will continue to look his way?  The Cardinals will improve now that they have a competent QB.  Carson Palmer's glory days are behind him, but he's a huge upgrade over what they had before.  At least he's capable of getting the ball down field to Larry Fitzgerald, which is more than you could say for John Skelton or Kevin Kolb.  Fitzgerald will be jumping for joy as he is welcomed back into the elite receiver club.  We've missed ya Fitz!  He's far too talented to have been dragged down by poor QB play this long.  The Rams were shockingly 4-1-1 in their own division last season.  Unfortunately they were 3-7 against everyone else.  They are burdened with the unfortunate aspect of being the last team to draft the top overall pick in a draft prior to the new CBA drastically cutting rookie contracts.  Sam Bradford is among the highest paid QBs in the league, despite never accomplishing much of anything.  Hard to build around that.

Playoff Predictions
AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Bengals
AFC South: Texans
AFC West: Broncos
Wild Cards: Chiefs, Colts

Wild Card Round: Patriots over Colts, Bengals over Chiefs
Divisional Round: Patriots over Broncos, Texans over Bengals
Championship Round: Texans over Patriots

NFC East: Redskins
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Falcons
NFC West: Seahawks
Wild Cards: 49ers, Saints

Wild Card Round: Seahawks over Saints, 49ers over Redskins
Divisional Round: Packers over 49ers, Falcons over Seahawks
Championship Round: Falcons over Packers

Super Bowl: Falcons over Texans

Now Tony Gonzalez will be able to retire a champion and we can all stop questioning Matt Ryan's ability as an elite QB.  Plus, don't you think Steve-Jax deserves this after just missing out on the Greatest Show on Turf years in St. Louis and toiling away on so many miserable Rams teams?