Peavy changes Sox

As the trade deadline quietly passed this week, many teams around the league were disappointed to find there wasn't much to buy on the market this year.  The addition of a second Wild Card spot has convinced more teams they are still in the race for a playoff spot, leading to a decline in the number of teams willing to sell.  The new CBA rules that prevent teams from picking up an extra draft pick for losing players to free agency that didn't spend the entire previous season with the team has made many teams reluctant to make a deal for a rental player on an expiring contract.  These factors combined to make for a fairly uneventful end of July, when contending teams are typically trying to load up for a postseason run.  One of the few contenders that did make a splash was the Boston Red Sox.

Boston filled the need for a front line starter by acquiring Jake Peavy from Chicago.  The 2007 Cy Young award winner will change his Sox from White to Red to help bolster a rotation struggling with the uncertainty of Clay Buchholz's health and Jon Lester's inconsistency.  The Red Sox were in the market for a starting pitcher, but wisely balked at the Phillies asking price for Cliff Lee - both in terms of top prospects they were asking for and Philadelphia's refusal to eat any of the $25 million per year salary.  That turned Boston's attention to the next best option on the market, which found them engaged in talks with Chicago regarding Peavy.  It seemed as if the teams wouldn't be able to find the right match, until Detroit jumped in as a third team to help facilitate the deal.

In exchange for Peavy, Boston sent Jose Iglesias to the SS needy Tigers.  His elite defensive skills will greatly improve a sluggish infield and provide them with insurance against a potential season ending suspension for Jhonny Peralta.  A trio of lottery ticket prospects from the low minors will also head to Chicago.  None of them are close to major league ready and are long shots to ever come back to haunt Boston.  Chicago will receive outfielder Avisail Garcia from Detroit, giving them a prospect with a potentially bright future that they are very high on.  It seems each team ended up a winner in this deal, with two playoff hopeful teams finding key improvements and Chicago shedding salary while adding a promising prospect.

So what does Peavy bring to the Red Sox?  Fans may scoff at the 4.28 ERA that he carries this season, but that number is inflated by a couple of rough starts where he pitched through the discomfort of broken ribs. Peavy was rocked for 12 runs in 6 1/3 innings over two starts before the team found the fracture in his ribs. Throw out those two starts where he was limited by the injury and he has a much more eye pleasing 2.83 ERA on the season.

Yet there in lies the risk of acquiring Peavy, who has a long injury history that has plagued him since the Padres traded him to Chicago in 2009.  Ankle, shoulder, groin and now ribs are among the ailments that have sent him to the disabled list over the past few years.  He struggled in his first two full seasons in the heavy hitting AL, both in staying on the field and in adjusting to playing outside of pitcher friendly Petco Park in San Diego.  Last season he bounced back, making 32 starts and tossing over 200 innings for the first time since his Cy Young award winning season in '07, when he led the league in Wins, ERA and strikeouts (also known as the Triple Crown for pitchers).  Peavy may not be as overpowering as he was back in his prime, but his strikeout rates (8.6 K/9 this season) are climbing back up towards his career average, showing he's closer to the pitcher he was earlier in his career than the one that struggled after first arriving in the AL.  His 3.67 xFIP (fielding independent ERA adjusted for league and ballpark effects) this year is nearly identical to his career mark.

When healthy, Peavy is still one of the top starters in the league.  Over the past two seasons he has a higher WAR than anyone else on the Red Sox staff.  Boston needs an ace to send out on the mound this postseason to match up against the likes of Justin Verlander and David Price.  Maybe Peavy can be that guy. Lester hasn't looked like a front line ace in over two years now.  Buchholz would seem to fit the bill based on his dominant start to the season, where he posted a league leading 1.71 ERA, but he's been sidelined for nearly two months and the team still has no idea when he'll return.  With only 84.1 innings banked so far, a likely September return probably won't allow for him to reach the minimum threshold to even qualify for the ERA title and there's no telling if he'll be nearly as sharp when he does get back on the mound.  The Sox best pitcher thus far has been... John Lackey.  Do you really trust him in a big game in October?

This team needed another starter and Peavy was easily the best one available that could be had for a reasonable price.  Boston did not have to part with any of their top prospects for a quality starter that isn't just a rental player - he has one more year left on his deal for $14.5 million, plus an option year for 2015. While Iglesias' glove will certainly be missed, the Sox are clearly selling high on his unsustainable hot start with the bat.  After batting over .400 during his first 100 at-bats of the season, Iglesias plummeted back down to earth.  A July slump where his average hovered barely over .200 dragged his season average down to .330.  That's still a very high average, which the Sox used to help sell his value, but it's trending rapidly in the wrong direction.  His early season average was heavily inflated by infield singles and bloop hits that led to a high batting average on balls in play (.376 BABIP for the season) that was destined to regress.  He's a contact hitter that doesn't strike out much, but he also rarely draws a walk and hits for very little power, with only one home run and 13 extra base hits all season.  There is no track record during his career, including his time in the minor leagues, that suggests Iglesias is anything close to a future batting champion.  He's a wizard with the glove, possibly even the best defensive SS since Omar Vizquel. His defense alone makes him valuable, regardless of what he provides at the plate.  The Red Sox are losing a good player, but also one that was expendable.  The Red Sox system is deep at the position and Iglesias may not have had a long term future with the franchise.  The need to add a starter outweighed the value of a defensive minded SS, especially with Stephen Drew capable of holding down the spot for now.

Of course, they may not need to rely on Drew for much longer.  Xander Bogaerts is coming - possibly even sooner than you think.  The 20-year old phenom is Boston's best prospect and widely considered to be one of the best in all of baseball.  He's a future star and potential franchise player.  Scouts drool over his potential as a SS that can hit for average and power.  He's expected to be ready for the majors by next season, but don't rule out the possibility that we see him in Boston this year.  Could that be the reason they found Iglesias to be so expendable?  Perhaps they were just clearing a path for their top prospect to make an impact sooner rather than later.  He could be for this team what Manny Machado has been for the O's or Mike Trout has been for the Angels.  Yes, he's that good.  Those young stars were about the same age as Bogaerts is now when they took the big leagues by storm with their breakout seasons.  If the team feels Bogaerts has that type of ceiling, why not give him a shot to see what he can do?

Regardless of how bright the future will be for Bogaerts, the Sox needed a boost to their starting rotation now.  They currently find themselves with the best record in the AL, holding a narrow one game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays at the top of the AL East.  If Peavy pitches like he did last season (and most of this year) then his value to the team could be worth an extra win or two down the stretch.  His presence also helps strengthen the injury riddled bullpen by allowing the team to use some of the options they were slotting in as 5th starters out of the pen instead.  When the postseason begins he'll give the team added depth and potentially push the struggling Ryan Dempster out of the rotation.  A playoff rotation of Peavy, Buchholz, Lester and Lackey should be good enough to match up with just about anyone, especially when you consider they are backed by the league's best offense.

This appears to be one of those rare deadline deals where it's perfectly clear what the motivation was for each team involved and they can all come away from it considering themselves winners in the deal.  What Boston is hoping for is that this deal helps make them a winner when it really matters - in October.