Red Sox Revival

A season isn't won after only two months, but the standings in early June are very encouraging for a Red Sox team that has failed to make the postseason in each of the past three seasons.  After an epic late season collapse was followed by one of the more miserable seasons in recent memory, expectations were understandably low.  So far, this team is blowing those expectations out of the water.

How has this team turned things around to go from cellar dwellers in the division all the way to the top of the AL East?  The offense has been outstanding, ranking first in the majors in runs scored and second in OPS, but the Red Sox had a top 10 offense in each of their past three postseason-less years.  The difference this year has been the pitching.

Boston's pitching staff currently owns a 3.72 ERA, which trails only the Texas Rangers in the AL.  When Boston won two World Series titles in the last decade they did so with a powerhouse offense that was complimented by a dominant pitching staff headlined by a pair of aces - Pedro/Schilling (2004) and Schilling/Beckett (2007).  In order for the Sox to get back to that championship level they are going to need that same type of one-two punch in the rotation to help carry them.  This year they may finally have it again.

Leading the way is Clay Buchholz, who leads the majors with a sparkling 1.62 ERA.  You can't really call it

a break out season considering he finished second in the AL in ERA back in 2010, but skeptics will point to his mediocre K/9 inning rate as a reason to expect regression.  An injury shortened season would follow, which may be partially to blame for his rather disappointing numbers last year.  Healthy once again, Buchholz is picking up right where he left off a few years ago.  He's even improved his K/9 rate to a career high 8.92, suggesting that his strong start is for real.  His minuscule 3.6% HR/FB rate is likely to rise (he's only given up 2 HRs all season), but given that he's induced ground balls nearly 50% of the time throughout his career, it probably won't go up too much.  Buchholz's ascension has not only put him at the top of this Red Sox pitching staff, it's put him in the conversation with the best pitchers in the league.  With the AL's usual suspects like David Price and Justin Verlander struggling so far, Buchholz has found himself neck and neck with Yu Darvish for the early season favorite for the AL Cy Young.

A dominant ace pitcher is a great asset come playoff time, but to advance deep into the postseason a team needs a reliable co-anchor on the staff.  That's where Jon Lester comes in.  A bit of the shine wore off of Lester's ace title after last year's dismal season that saw his ERA balloon to a career worst 4.82.  It appears reuniting with former pitching coach and current manager John Farrell has done wonders to turn his career around.  A few rough starts in May disrupted an outstanding start, but he's still carrying a very respectable 3.53 ERA.  Advanced stats, such as FIP - which rates a pitchers performance based on factors in his control rather than that of the defense - suggest Lester is pitching even better than what his ERA shows.  His strikeout rate is down a bit from his prime, but that's been offset by cutting down on his walks and home runs allowed.  Early signs point to Lester being back to the level he was at a couple years ago when he was among the best left handed pitchers in the league.

Depth is a key factor for any rotation and the Sox seem to have it.  John Lackey had become somewhat of a running joke since coming to Boston.  So much so that at one point I set out to determine if he was the worst pitcher in Red Sox history!  The biggest reason for that may be that we've never actually seen a completely healthy Lackey since he's been here - until now.  While I wouldn't expect him to continue the rest of the season with a sub-3.00 ERA, he's shown enough to warrant expectations of being a solid third or fourth starter.  That may be disappointing given his contract, which he will never live up to, but given the horses ahead of him in the rotation, the Sox will certainly take what they are getting from Lackey.

Ryan Dempster was never expected to succeed at the level he did in the weak hitting NL, but that doesn't mean he can't be a valuable innings eater at the back end of the rotation.  He's actually striking out hitters at a career best rate.  It's the home runs that have given him trouble, which is likely due to his continued adjustment to AL hitters and to pitching at Fenway.  With an offense a good as the Red Sox have backing him, he's pitched well enough to have deserved more than 2 wins in his first 11 starts.  Once that misfortune reverses itself, he's still capable of reaching double digit wins.  The same can be said for Felix Doubront, assuming he sticks in the rotation.  He was expected to have a break out season, but has been held back by bouts of wildness.  Doubront has good stuff, when he can control it, but that 4.72 BB/9 needs to improve.  He's racking up pitch counts too quickly in games when he loses focus and stops throwing strikes and leaves too many pitches over the plate when he attempts to correct himself.  He's got the talent to turn things around, but if he doesn't then his spot may be taken by one of Boston's rising prospects.  A fifth starter isn't required for the postseason anyway, so the Sox will be just fine as long as either Dempster or Doubront proves capable of earning a spot at the end of the rotation.

The bullpen, a weakness in seasons past, has performed admirably.  The trade for closer Joel Hanrahan

became a disaster even before he was knocked out with season ending surgery, but Andrew Bailey has been every bit as dominant as we expected when the Sox traded for him last year.  He's always a health risk, but when he's on the mound there are few closers as reliable as Bailey.  Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa have been a very effective tandem as set up men.  When Boston has a lead after 6 innings, the back of the bullpen leaves opponents with little hope for a comeback.

There are a lot of reasons to point to for Boston's strong start that has put them in first place in the AL East through the first two months.  Few hitters have mashed the ball like David Ortiz has since he joined the lineup after a delayed start to the season.  Dustin Pedroia's all around brilliance has him on the short list of MVP candidates in the AL (he's top five in the league in AVG and runs scored, while leading the league in WAR).  Then there is the team's RBI leader, Mike Napoli, who has been just as successful hitting at Fenway as we hoped he would be.  The offense has been as great as it's always been.  The key difference that has made the Sox winners again is that the pitching has finally caught up again.

If it holds up, we'll see the Sox back in the playoffs for the first time since 2009.  With the familiar formula of a pair of aces leading the way, we might even see them contend for another title.