What does Belichick see in Tebow?

For a guy widely considered to be one of the greatest coaches in NFL history, Bill Belichick has a habit of making some head scratching moves.  Sometimes these risks work out (Randy Moss) and sometimes they don't (Chad Johnson, Albert Haynseworth).  It's often best to give the genius of Belichick the benefit of the doubt - or as we stay in New England: In Bill We Trust.  On the surface of his latest surprise, it's tough to see what he's thinking with signing Tim Tebow.

Let's start with the obvious.  Tim Tebow is not a good quarterback.  In fact, he's not even an average one.  Some consider him to be capable of running the option offense due to his ability to scramble with the ball and make plays with his legs, but the difference between him and guys like Robert Griffin and Colin Kaepernick is that those guys can actually throw the football.  Tebow's career completion percentage is a cringe worthy 47.9%.  He played in too limited of a sample size last season with the Jets, making only 8 pass attempts all season, but had he played as a starter last year at his career average level he would have been by far the least accurate passer in the league.  His career Total QBR rating (34.3) would also rank near the bottom of the league (although still ahead of Mark Sanchez!).  He has nearly as many career turnovers (16) as passing TDs (17) and has only thrown for over 300 yards in a game once.

Yes, Tebow does seem to have an immeasurable amount of intangible skills that feed into the belief that he is a winner.  He had a very successful college career and does deserve some credit for winning a playoff game in 2011 with Denver (before getting demolished by the Patriots in the next round).  Keep in mind though that his Broncos team was a mediocre 8-8 that season.  Peyton Manning led essentially the same team to 13 wins and the AFC's top seed last year after Tebow left (true, Manning lost his first playoff game in a Broncos uniform, but the defensive collapse that allowed the eventual champion Ravens to come back in that game can hardly be blamed on Manning).  Tebow was given a lot of credit for carrying an overachieving team to the playoffs on the back of his leadership, when in reality, the team around him may have been better than we thought.  Those late game heroics that resulted in dramatic wins may only have been necessary because his dismal play earlier in the game put them in a hole to begin with.

Last year Mark Sanchez may have been the worst starting QB in the league.  When his struggles finally led to him losing his starting job, the Jets thought so little of Tebow's ability based on what they had seen in practices that they promoted rookie Greg McElroy ahead of him.  After he was released earlier this year, no team rushed to sign him as their starter.  Not even the lowly Jaguars were willing to take that chance, despite Tebow's popularity in the region dating back to his college days (the Jaguars knew signing Tebow would be little more than a publicity stunt.  They would be under a lot of pressure to start him, which would have been a disaster for their rebuilding strategy.  Smart move for them to pass, regardless of how many extra tickets he would have helped them sell). 

So if Tebow is not an NFL caliber QB, what do the Patriots want with him?  Well, we know Belichick likes versatility from his players and Tebow's athleticism could be put to use in a variety of roles.  Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels was the one who drafted Tebow in the first round while coaching the Broncos, so there is a connection there as well.  If there is any team in the league capable of getting the most out of Tebow's talents, you have to believe the Patriots rank near the top of the list.  Tebow has held strong with his stance that he is unwilling to switch to a different position, but signing with the Patriots may be a sign that he is willing to compromise.  Even someone with Tebow's unmatched optimism can't possibly believe he has a chance to surpass Tom Brady as the team's starting QB, so if he wants to play he may need to be open to other options.  He will have a difficult time even passing Ryan Mallet on the depth chart for 2nd string.

So how will he be used?  Tebow doesn't have blazing speed, but he's effective in space due to his physical strength and agility.  He's not shy of making contact and can be dangerous on the move with the ball.  Many experts have long believed that he would make a great fullback or tight end.  It's unlikely he would willingly move to that type of role full time, but he could occasionally line up on the field in that position in certain packages.  He could also be used as a weapon on special teams and trick plays.  We saw on a few occasions last year where the Jets would give a direct snap to Tebow in a punt formation and let him run with it.  We don't often see that from the Patriots, but perhaps having a player with Tebow's talents on the roster will open up those options.  He's also great in short yardage running situations and could be an effective goal line option.  Stevan Ridley is already pretty effective in that role though.  Plus, despite the fact that Brady is hardly known for his ability running the ball, he is among the best in the league in diving ahead for a first down or score in short yardage due to his high football IQ and instincts.  That makes the upside for Tebow in that role fairly limited since he'd only be upgrading a position that is already a strength.

Assuming he even makes the 53 man roster (hardly a given at this point), Tebow's impact appears to be fairly limited.  He certainly has the ability to help this team in certain roles, but does his upside outweigh the risk?  Not financial risk of course, since his contract reportedly does not come with any guaranteed money.  However, we've seen what kind of drama comes with the media circus surrounding Tebow Mania.  It turned into a disaster for the Jets last year.  It won't be nearly as bad in New England since there will be no power struggle with Brady for the starting spot and fans won't be calling for Tebow to start in his place the way they did with Sanchez last year.  Tebow has generally always been well liked by his teammates, yet his greatest strength may be his ability to be a leader and inspire his team.  The Patriots already have a strong leadership group, led by Brady.  Tebow has never played with another QB of Brady's caliber, where there was no question who the leader was, so it remains to be seen how he will respond in this situation. 

Tebow is a polarizing figure with a strong personality.  He's an extremely popular player, but more so for his strong religious faith than his actual football abilities.  I'm sure he's a great guy, with the sort of good natured values that people connect with.  That's all well and good, but it doesn't have anything to do with football.  Tebow is a great athlete with a strong work ethic.  There is no doubt that he will put his full effort into making an impact with this team.  I just worry that there won't be a large enough role for him here to offset the downside of his presence.  Hopefully he is capable of adapting to a new role where he can help this team win games. 

Just please, don't let him throw the football.