Wednesday, June 26, 2013

The Doc is out

The long rumored deal has finally been completed, although hardly as originally orchestrated.  The Boston Celtics have agreed to release coach Doc Rivers from the three years that remained on his contract to allow him to jump ship to sunny Los Angeles, where the Clippers will make him their coach, as well as senior vice president of basketball operations.  As compensation, the Celtics will receive a first-round draft pick in 2015 from the Clippers.

It's a tough pill for Celtics fans to swallow to see Rivers leave after 9 seasons in Boston.  He's widely considered to be one of the top coaches in the league and the team was very successful during his tenure.  His 416 wins are the third most for a coach in franchise history.  He led the team to six division titles, two Finals appearances and one unforgettable Championship in 2008.  Rivers helped bring a winning culture to a franchise that had struggled for over two decades.  Yet all good things must eventually come to an end and Rivers had reached the end of the line in Boston.  The time had come for him to move on.

The Celtics are in a position where they inevitably have to start rebuilding toward the next stage of the franchise in the post-Big Three era.  Despite knowing the rebuild would be coming at the time he signed his 5 year extension, Rivers was far from enamored with the idea of leading a rebuilding team.  Why bother to pay $7 million per year to a coach of a young team that isn't ready to contend?  If that coach isn't fully committed to the idea of being here through that rebuilding stage, it makes the decision that much easier.  Doc is a great coach, but he may no longer be the best fit for this team if they intend to rebuild with young players.  That doesn't play to Doc's strengths as a coach.  It was best for everyone involved for the Celtics to allow Rivers to join a contender while allowing them to kick start the rebuilding process.

Rivers' departure will send ripple effects throughout the roster.  The first decision for GM Danny Ainge will be deciding the fate of Paul Pierce.  The Captain (and the Truth!) will be owed about $15.3 million in the final season of his contract, but his partially guaranteed contract could be cut for a mere $5 million if he's released before the end of the month.  That makes him an appealing trade piece for a team that is either looking for a veteran scorer or one that is looking to shed some cap space.  It makes little sense for Boston to cut Pierce themselves because the $10 million in savings still would not drop them below the salary cap (the Celtics currently have over $73 million in salary committed to this upcoming season).  They are more likely to shop him around, looking for young players, draft picks and perhaps a valuable trade exception that could be used for the cap-strapped Celtics to acquire a younger star.

The Dallas Mavericks are reportedly shopping the 13th pick in this week's draft to anyone willing to take on the final year of Shawn Marion's contract ($9.3 million) to free up room for them to pursue Dwight Howard in free agency.  So how about this?  Boston could send Pierce to Dallas in exchange for the expiring contracts of Marion and Vince Carter ($3.1 million), as well as the draft pick.  Dallas is far enough under the salary cap to be able to take on the difference in salary being exchanged.  After releasing Pierce, Dallas would save approximately $7.5 million.  Assuming OJ Mayo declines his player option and they renounce their rights to their other free agent eligible players, that should free up enough space to make an offer to Howard.  Meanwhile, Boston doesn't take on any long term salary and gets a lottery pick for their troubles.

That's just one example of a mutually beneficial deal that could help kick start the rebuilding process.  The goal here is to acquire some combination of future cap space, young players and draft picks.

So once Pierce is taken care of, where does that leave Kevin Garnett?  Punching the ticket out of town for, err... the Big Ticket may be easier said than done.  He still has that no trade clause, which he used to block any potential deals last February, but things have changed since then.  Garnett may be the most fiercely loyal player in the game, but with Doc gone and Pierce possibly on his way out, perhaps he'll be more open to the idea of moving on if it truly is what's best - both for him and the Celtics.

One destination we know he won't be headed is to join Doc with the Clippers.  The league stepped in to block the heavily rumored trade that would have sent KG to LA for DeAndre Jordan because they felt that the teams could not prove that this trade was not contingent upon Boston allowing Rivers to got to LA as well.  Coaches can't be traded for players and the teams were not able to finalize a deal that the league was comfortable approving as being separate from the Rivers trade.  As part of the agreement for the Rivers deal, the Celtics are prohibited from trading KG to the Clippers until after the '13-14 season.  It's possible that KG could still find his way to the Clippers at some point anyway if he can agree to a buyout with Boston and become a free agent.  If not, he may just decide to retire.  Either way, Boston could end up losing the heart and soul of their team, as well as it's defensive backbone, without receiving any compensation in return.

If KG were to agree to a deal out of town, it would have to be to a contender.  While the location may not be ideal, Oklahoma City would at least provide a legitimate shot at a title.  They could use his intensity, veteran leadership and defensive abilities.  In return, the Celtics could get back fan favorite Kendrick Perkins (who for some reason is still beloved in Boston) along with a young asset, such as Jeremy Lamb or Perry Jones, and the 12th pick in this week's draft (which the Thunder acquired previously from Toronto).  Throw Haseem Thabeet in as cap filler to make the salary math work and they may have a deal.  As long as Boston can stomach paying Perkins $17.5 million over the next two years anyway.

Both Pierce and Garnett are still valuable players, but they are no longer at the stage of their careers where they can carry a team for long stretches.  We saw this in this past postseason when their weary veterans became over matched in their first round exit.  Rajon Rondo may not be ready to start the season as he completes his recovery from surgery to repair a torn ACL and the void left by missing their All-Star point guard may be too much to overcome to keep them in contention for another run with this same group.  That's why it's vital that the Celtics try to move their two veteran stars for assets now before they lose them for nothing.

As hard as it will be to see them go, it's time for the Celtics to move on.  Like any great leader, it was Rivers that took the first step.  Now Pierce and Garnett must follow.  It's up to Ainge to make it happen and acquire pieces that can be used to build around the core of Rondo, Bradley, Green and Sullinger.  Boston has an opportunity to to get assets to use in building the next era of Celtics basketball, which is a luxury the franchise didn't have the last time they had a Big Three that was broken up.  Ainge knows that better than anyone, so he'll make the right decision this time.

Now he just needs to find a partner to trade with.  With the draft coming up tomorrow, time may be running short.  Any takers?

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