That's the kind of statement your likely to hear these days in Red Sox Nation as a panicking fan base agonizes over rotation woes highlighted by the train wreck of a season in progress by John Lackey. While the hostility has been somewhat warranted, it's a stretch to say that he's actually the worst pitcher in baseball history. However, it may not be quite as far fetched to consider that Lackey is having the worst season of any Red Sox pitcher ever.
Part of the negativity being spewed at Lackey this season comes from the disappointment of failed expectations that come along with the pricey 5 year, $82.5 million contract he signed two years ago. He's essentially the J.D. Drew of pitchers, a solid player throughout his career, but hardly a star caliber player that will never live up to that large of a contract.
Perception doesn't always match reality, and Lackey's contract certainly works against him in the eyes of fans. Yet the truth is in the numbers, so how does Lackey rate statistically in relation to other forgettable bottom feeders in Red Sox history?
First, let's take a look at just how bad Lackey has been this season. His current 6.19 ERA ranks as the worst amongst all starting pitchers that have thrown over 100 innings so far this season. His FIP, which calculates a pitcher's ERA independent of fielding (essentially using strikeouts and home runs to eliminate balls in play out of the pitcher's control) stands at 4.81. Still unreasonably high considering what is expected of him, but it still suggests his bloated ERA may be partially inflated by elements out of his control. His BABIP of .333 is well above league average and easily a career high for him, suggesting he's been the victim of some bad luck along the way. His rapidly declining K/9 rate (career low 6.07 K's per 9 innings) is partially to blame, but it's fair to say that he hasn't really been this bad.
Yet make no mistake, he's clearly been bad. It's just a question of if it's been historically bad or not. Let's compare Lackey's season to some of the other worst pitching seasons for Red Sox pitchers. Only starting pitchers that topped at least 100 innings for the season qualify.
ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP BABIP
John Lackey (2011) 6.19 1.59 6.07 3.07 1.20 4.81 .333
Lefty Grove (1934) 6.50 1.66 3.54 2.63 0.41 3.83 .339
Mike Smithson (1988) 5.97 1.47 5.19 2.63 1.78 5.20 .295
Del Lundgren (1927) 6.27 1.81 2.57 5.74 0.46 5.12 .304
Jack Lamabe (1964) 5.89 1.65 5.53 2.89 1.27 4.21 .340
Grove's 1934 season was clearly an aberration, shortened by injury which likely played a part in his poor season. He'd go on to have a Hall of Fame career, so I think it's safe to say he's not in John Lackey territory, but that one season was at least comparable to Lackey's season. Lundgren is easily the least talented pitcher on the list, as this was only his first full season in the rotation and he was out of the league the following year. Smithson's numbers are inflated by a spike in home runs allowed, coming around a time when power numbers were starting to rise (perhaps a bit premature for what's known as the "steroid era," but that doesn't mean players hadn't already started using PEDs around that time). Lamabe's season is the closest replica of the season Lackey is currently having, but he seems to have been even more unlucky than Lackey has been. It's difficult to fairly compare these pitchers given the different eras they played in, but it's clear that Lackey's putrid season fits in with the rest of the group.
It's also important to note that Lackey's season hasn't been a complete disaster. He's logged nearly 150 innings, which is the 3rd most innings on the Red Sox pitching staff this season. Granted they haven't been quality innings, but even in games where he's given up a lot of runs, he's capable of settling down and grinding out a few extra innings to prevent the bullpen from getting too overworked, while still keeping his team in the game. With an explosive offense like the one this Red Sox team boasts, they are rarely out of a game even after a poor effort from their starting pitcher. It may be ugly, but Lackey still sticks around long enough to give his team a chance to win, which is why he doesn't have a losing record. His last outing, at home against the Blue Jays, is a good example. Lackey gave up two early runs, but fought back to make it through 5.1 innings. He didn't make it quite far enough to get credit for a quality start, but he left with a lead, which his bullpen would later blow.
It's clear that Lackey's skills are in sharp decline, a tough pill to swallow given his bloated contract (which, I shudder to think, lasts another 3 years). In his prime, Lackey dominated hitters with his fastball, but a loss in velocity has made that fastball far more hittable. There has been speculation that part of his issues have been mental, as he struggled to adjust to the media market in Boston and suffered through some personal issues off the field since joining the Red Sox. Injury issues may also have led to some of his issues. Still, he's clearly on the downside of his career and rapidly declining.
Lackey has shown glimpses of his former self this season, but has been unable to sustain it. Can he get it back, at least temporarily, to give the Red Sox rotation a boost down the stretch and (hopefully) into the playoffs? They better hope so, because as it stands now, they likely would be forced to rely on him as their third starter in a playoff series. That's a scary thought, to give such an important role to a pitcher that just may be having the worst season in franchise history.
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