Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Things I Noticed: Week 15

It was a difficult weekend to focus on football in the aftermath of the tragic events in Newtown, CT.  A shooting spree at an elementary school has to be among the most senseless acts of violence imaginable.  The NFL held a moment of silence before each game in honor of the victims, while many teams paid tribute by adding the initials for Shady Hook Elementary School to their helmets.

Is it just me, or have the past several weeks started out talking about some sort of tragic event?  It's been a rough month.  Let's move on to some better news and hope for better days ahead.

Here are some things I noticed this week:
  • The Bengals defense forced 5 turnovers in a route over the Eagles, including 4 fumbles (but hey, at least Bryce Brown wasn't responsible for any of them!)
  • AJ Green finally found the end zone for the first time in 4 weeks.  I was beginning to worry he had forgotten where it was.  He's now up to 11 TDs this season, which is second in the league.
  • The Eagles scored all 13 of their points in the second quarter, which ended up giving them a slight lead at halftime.  The Bengals were shut out in that quarter, but scored twice in each of the other quarters, including 24 second half points.
  • Despite owning the NFC's best record, the Falcons seemed like a team in need of making a statement.  They were coming off an ugly loss and had rarely looked dominant this season even when they were winning.  Consider the statement made.  Atlanta gave the Giants their first shutout loss since 1996.  The 34-0 demolition was the worst shutout defeat for a defending Super Bowl champion ever.
    • That's great for Atlanta to get a statement win, but we'll start taking them seriously as a Super Bowl contender when they prove they can do it in the postseason.  Matt Ryan is like the mirror image of Eli Manning.  Great regular season stats, but nothing to show for it in the playoffs.
  • Matt Ryan was brilliant, throwing 3 TDs and finishing with a Total QBR of 96.2.  It was his third game this season with a QBR of at least 95.0, which ties him with Tom Brady for most in the league.
  • I've talked about Julio Jones' home/road splits before, but the young receiver finally had a big game on his home field.  He scored twice to give him his first two TDs of the season at home (he now has 9 total).  His 74 yards brought his total up to only 391 in home games, while he has 1,071 receiving yards on the road this season.
  • Just when it seemed Eli Manning had turned his season around, he lays another egg that has him looking like he's back in the same funk he was in about a month ago.  Not only did his team fail to score, but Eli tossed two more INTs, giving him 15 for the season (5th most in the league), compared to only 20 TDs (15th most in the league).  Eli may have proven himself as an elite QB with his postseason accomplishments, but when it comes to the regular season, he has a very inconsistent track record.  His playoff success won't matter much if the Giants can't even get there.  The loss drops them into a three way tie in the NFC East. 
    • If the season ended today, the Giants would not qualify for the playoffs.  They still have to play in Baltimore next week before finishing at home against an Eagles team salivating at the chance to play the spoiler role at the end of a lost season (which likely will also be Andy Reid's last game with the Eagles).
  • Green Bay clinched the NFC North with a victory over the Bears behind three TDs from Aaron Rodgers.  All three of those scores went to James Jones, who has become perhaps the unlikeliest receiver to ever lead the league in receiving TDs this late in the season (he currently leads with 12).  He's only the 4th receiver on the depth chart for his own team, but injuries to Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson this season have allowed Jones the chance to shine.
  • The Bears once looked like the cream of the crop in the NFC, but their season has quickly unraveled with losses in 5 of their past 6 games.  Not only have they lost their chance at the division crown, they currently find themselves on the outside looking in on the playoff picture.
  • The Redskins were without RGIII this week, but they didn't miss a beat, as Kirk Cousins led them to a win over the Browns.  Washington is part of that three way tie in the NFC East, but the tiebreaker advantages fall in their favor, which currently puts them in a playoff spot. 
    • Cousins is no RGIII, but he sure looked like it on this deep TD pass to Leonard Hankerson.  Well, that and it was bad defense.  Seriously, triple covered and none of them could stop it?  Not only that, but Hankerson fell down and still had time to get back up and scramble into the end zone before those three defenders could touch him.
  • Trent Richardson scored twice, giving the rookie 11 scores on the season, which is tied for the second most rushing scores in the league.  He's also on pace for over 1,000 yards, trailing only Washington's Alfred Morris and Tampa's Doug Martin for rookie RBs.
  • Adrian Peterson continues to defy medical science by dominating the league despite having his knee surgically repaired less than a year ago.  Forget just thinking about AP getting to 2,000 yards, that's essentially a foregone conclusion given how he's been playing.  He's got his eyes set on loftier goals, such as Eric Dickerson's single season rushing record of 2,105.  After adding 212 yards against the Rams, AP is up to 1,812 with two games to go, meaning he has to average 147 yards in those last two games to match the record.  He's easily surpassed that mark in 6 of his last 8 games, including two 200+ yard efforts.
    • Peterson also tied the career long he set just a couple weeks ago with an 82 yard TD run.
  • At 8-6, the Vikings have moved up into the second Wild Card spot.  Few expected them to be a contender, but they have a great chance now of making the playoffs.  Given how terrible Christian Ponder has been, plus the fact that Percy Harvin will have missed nearly half the season with an ankle injury that put him on IR this week, Peterson has to be in the mix for MVP.  If the Vikings can hold on to a playoff spot and AP sets the rushing record, you could make a great case for him deserving the award over Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
  • The Rams are undefeated (with one tie) against the NFC West, but have fallen to 2-7 against the rest of the league.  They have only one divisional game left, which is in Seattle (one of the toughest places to play), so their odds of finishing with a winning record aren't looking good.
  • Ryan Tannehill out dueled former Dolphins QB Chad Henne, as Miami cruised to a win over a Jacksonville team that finds itself in a fight with Kansas City for the top pick in next year's draft.  They would win (lose?) the tie breaker for last place given their better conference record, which goes to show that if you are going to tank your season, make sure you don't win any games in your conference.
  • Drew Brees got back on track with a 4 TD game in a shutout victory over the Bucs.  The playoffs are already out of reach, but given how ugly the season started in New Orleans, climbing to second in the division is a big accomplishment. 
  • Josh Freeman was essentially the mirror opposite of Brees.  He was just awful.  He threw 4 INTs and lost a fumble before getting benched for Dan Orlovsky (yes, the same guy that was partially responsible for the Colts being terrible enough to draft Andrew Luck).
  • It wasn't that Tampa wasn't able to move the ball against the Saints, it's just that every time they did, they turned it over.  Two of Freeman's picks came in the red zone to take away sure points.  Mike Williams also dropped a ball in the end zone on a drive the Bucs would end up turning it over on downs.  This game wasn't as much about the Saints dominating as it was about Tampa (literally) throwing it away.
    • Still, can we point out that the Saints defense that is ranked dead last in the league in points allowed just shutout a Bucs team that boasts a top 10 offense?
  • Orlovsky threw an incompletion on the last play of the game to seal the shutout loss.  The play came from the Saints 10 yard line with two seconds remaining.  Even if it were successful, time would have run out so they had no chance of scoring the other 34 points they would have needed.  So why not take the field goal in that situation?  It's going to be a loss either way, but why not at least ensure the season isn't stained by an ugly shutout?
  • The Broncos took control of the #2 seed in the AFC with a win over the Ravens.  Peyton Manning wasn't at his best and he got little help from any receiver not named Eric Decker, but the running game was effective enough to keep the offense moving. 
  • Denver essentially put the game away with a 98 yard INT return for a score just before halftime.  Joe Flacco floated a pass to the end zone that was easily picked off by Chris Harris to give the Broncos a 17-0 lead.  A couple of garbage time scores in the 4th quarter are the only reason this game didn't look like a blow out, because it was never really as close as the final score suggests.
  • The reeling Ravens have lost three straight games, including two in a row at home, where they used to be considered nearly invincible.  They already locked up a playoff spot, but the Bengals are now only a game behind them in the division, with the Steelers still hanging in there as well.
  • The Texans locked up the AFC South by beating the Colts team that stood as the only real threat to their crown.  JJ Watt had three sacks, moving him into a tie for first in the league with 19.5 for the season.  Meanwhile, Arian Foster (165 rushing yards) and Andre Johnson (11 catches, 151 yards, 1 TD) carried the load on offense.
  • Andrew Luck made it through a road game without an INT for the first time in his career.  13 of his league high 18 INTs have come on the road this season.
  • Seattle has struggled on the road this season, but given that this game was played in Toronto, it wasn't exactly a home game for Buffalo either.  Maybe that was the difference the Seahawks needed, or maybe the Bills are just that bad.  Either way, Seattle picked up their third road win of the season in a rout over the Bills. 
  • Russell Wilson ran for 3 TDs, becoming the first QB in a dozen years to score three times on the ground in a game (Daunte Culpepper had 3 rushing scores in 2000).  He also added his 21st passing score of the year, putting him tied for second all-time for passing scores by a rookie.
  • Seattle showed off their new alternate "wolf grey" uniforms this week.  Unless it was a close up, the new unis just look like dirty old white jerseys.
  • With Fred Jackson done for the year, CJ Spiller actually got a chance to be a featured back again.  Not surprisingly, he rushed for over 100 yards and found the end zone.  Good things happen when you give the ball to a guy averaging 6.5 yards per carry.  Go figure!
  • Ryan Lindley got his first career win as a starter, although it didn't have much to do with anything he did.  Arizona's defense returned two picks for scores, while Beanie Wells crossed the goal line three times.
  • Calvin Johnson (121 yards) became the first player ever to record back-to-back 1,600 yard seasons.  Jerry Rice's single season receiving record (1,848) is still in his sites.  He needs a total of 182 yards in his last two games for the record.  Considering he's had over 100 yards receiving in 7 straight games and Detroit has little else to play for at this point, expect the team to do all they can to ensure Calvin gets this record.
  • Mike Tolbert did his damage early against his former team, scoring on a pair of 1 yard TDs in the first quarter as the Panthers rolled over the Chargers for their second straight win.  The running game found plenty of success, with DeAngelo Williams having his best game of the year, rushing for 93 yards and taking one of his catches 45 yards for a score.
  • In news that should shock no one, Ryan Mathews is done for the year with another injury.  It's another broken clavicle, but not on the same side as the one that kept him out of the early part of the season.
  • Branden Carr picked off Ben Roethlisberger's pass on the second play of the overtime period and ran it all the way back to the 1 yard line.  While he was stopped just short of the goal line, the play did set up the game winning kick, which came one play after Tony Romo lined the ball up in the middle of the field with a kneel down.
  • Once left for dead in the playoff hunt, Dallas has won three straight and five of their last six to join Washington and New York in a three way tie at the top of the NFC East.  Both teams own tie breakers over Dallas, making them a long shot, but if they can get a win at home against the Saints next week then their playoff chances could come down to a Week 17 re-match with the Redskins.
  • Dez Bryant said that he would postpone surgery and continue to play with a fractured finger as long as Dallas is still in the playoff hunt.  With this win they stay in the hunt, at least for one more week, and Dez is a big part of why.  He caught his 10th TD pass of the season mid-way through the third quarter.  All 10 of his TD catches this season have come in the second half of games.
  • The Steelers are trending in the opposite direction.  They've lost four of their last five, while falling out of a playoff spot.  They seemed to have this game well in hand, with a seven point lead, about to get the ball back.  Then Antonio Brown fumbled the punt return a the Steelers 38 yard line, which set up a game tying drive for Dallas.
  • In a game where both teams appeared to be allergic to the end zone, the Raiders can be glad they have a kicker with one of the strongest legs in the league.  Sebastion Janikowski kicked five field goals, two of which were from 50+ yards, to account for the only scoring in this painful to watch match up. 
  • Kansas City has gotten awful production from their QBs this season, but it hasn't helped Brady Quinn at all to not having top target Dwayne Bowe on the field.  With the passing attack virtually useless, teams are able to stack the box against Jamaal Charles.  Then once they get a lead, they know the Chiefs will abandon the run.  After containing Charles to a meager 10 yards on 9 carries, the Raiders were able to essentially take the Chiefs best (only?) weapon out of the game plan.  Given what else they had to work with, it's no wonder they got shutout.
  • The first half of a rainy night in New England was about as sloppy as you can get, with a series of turnovers, near turnovers and busted plays.  The Patriots were uncharacteristically careless with the ball, with Stevan Ridley and Shane Vareen both losing fumbles.  Tom Brady threw two INTs (although one came on a pass that was overthrown to Wes Welker only because of blatant illegal contact that went uncalled).  Those miscues helped the 49ers build a 31-3 lead by the early part of the third quarter. 
  • The Patriots would rally back with 28 unanswered points to tie the game in the 4th quarter, but it didn't take long for the 49ers to answer back.  After returning the kick-off 62 yards to set themselves up with great field position, it took the Niners only one play to take back the lead.  Colin Kaepernick hit Michael Crabtree for a 38 yard TD to give the Niners a lead that they wouldn't relinquish this time.
  • Kaepernick (216 yards, 4 TDs) had one of his best games of his young career, but his night started out looking just as sloppy as the Patriots.  He had plenty of trouble taking the snap from under center in the wet conditions, fumbling four snaps in the game.  He was perhaps a bit lucky not to have lost at least one of those fumbles, considering a fumble generally has an equal chance of being recovered by both sides (the Pats lost both of their fumbles).  One extra turn over in New England's favor could have made this a much different game.  Not only should the 49ers be thankful that didn't happen, but they should also be questioning themselves as to why they didn't stick with the shot gun snap when the snaps under center were clearly becoming such a problem.
  • Leading 7-0 in mid-way through the first quarter, the 49ers faced 4th and 10 on their own side of the field.  It seemed like an obvious punting situation, until the Niners surprised the Patriots with a fake.  The punt protector took the direct snap and ran 31 yards, while confused defenders reacted too late to make a tackle that should easily have stopped the play short of the first down.  Bold move for the Niners.  They didn't end up scoring on that drive, but failing to pick up the first down would have given the Pats great field position with a chance to tie the game early, rather than letting it spiral out of control the rest of the half.
  • Wes Welker became the first player in history to record five seasons with at least 100 catches.  He is currently 3rd in the league in catches, behind Brandon Marshall and Calvin Johnson.
  • It was a tough loss for the Patriots, who had won 21 straight games in the second half of seasons, dating back to the regular season finale in 2009.  The loss dropped them a game behind Denver in the race for the #2 seed in the AFC, and essentially ended any hope they may have had of catching Houston for the top seed.  On the bright side, they can find a silver lining in the fact that the team didn't quit when they were getting embarrassed on their home field and they managed to fight back to make a close game of it.  A loss against a strong Super Bowl contender could be an eye opener for this team, which may have gotten a little to complacent following a long winning streak that most recently included a shellacking of the AFC leading Texans.  If nothing else, it's something they clearly can use as motivation going forward, so long as they learn from their mistakes.
  • Mark Sanchez coughed the ball up five times against the Titans, and in doing so, chocked away the Jets last hope at a late playoff run.  The Jets were still in position to win with a TD as they marched all the way down to the Titans 23 yard line at the two minute warning, but Sanchez threw it away with a crippling INT.  After the Jets defense held the Titans to a 3 and out, an ugly punt out of bounds seemed to dare the Jets to come back, giving them the ball at the Titans 25 yard line.  Given another chance to redeem himself and keep their season alive, Sanchez again turned it over with a game ending fumble.
    • Mark Sanchez may not be the worst starting QB in the league, but that depends entirely on whether Arizona decides to let John Skelton take the field again.  Aside from that, it's hard to find anyone having a more miserable season than Sanchez.  His 66.7 QB rating ranks 33rd out of 35 eligible QBs and his Total QBR is an abysmal 25.0, ranked next to last in the league.  His 17 INTs are the second most in the league and when you add in his fumbles, his 24 turnovers are a league worst.  Granted the Jets offense lacks talented play makers around him, but plenty of teams have that issue.  Sanchez is showing the Jets very little reason to stick with him beyond this season, other than that he makes too much money to sit on the bench and cutting him would come with a heavy cap hit.  They may not be able to get rid of Sanchez, but they certainly need to get rid of anyone responsible for handing him that insane contract extension.
  • Chris Johnson had hit a bit of a slump the past few weeks, but bounced back with a 122 yard performance.  Most of that yardage came on his 94 yard TD run.  Take away that one big run and he averaged an unappealing 1.4 yards on his other 20 carries.
  • The NFC East is the only division without a team that has even clinched a playoff spot yet.  Nobody has technically locked up the top seed in their conference yet, but it would take quite a collapse for the Falcons and Texans to not get it.
  • Despite coming off a loss, New England still has a dominant lead in point differential (+191).  Not only are they the highest scoring team in the league, but with 506 points already this season, they are within range of breaking their own record for points scored in a season (589), set back in their historic 2007 season.  Still fuming from their disappointing loss to the 49ers, is there any reason to think Brady won't shred the Jags and Dolphins in these next two weeks?  The Pats need to average 42 points per game against them to get the record.  Brady in eff you mode is coming back!
  • Entering this week, there had only been two shutouts all season.  This week alone there were three!

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