Hamilton a risk for Angels outfield

Josh Hamilton may have been the most unique case in the history of free agency.  On the one hand, you have the 2010 AL MVP, who is currently one of the game's most productive hitters.  On the other, you have a player marked with several red flags concerning his history of injuries and substance abuse.  Mix it all together and what is Hamilton really worth?

The LA Angels answered that question by agreeing to a 5 year, $125 million deal with the All-Star outfielder.  He'll join a packed outfield that already includes blossoming super star Mike Trout, masher Mark Trumbo and defensive ace Peter Bourjos (that's without even figuring out what to do with Vernon Wells).  Presumably the team will either test Trumbo at third base or continue to under utilize the talents of Bourjos by forcing him back into a bench role as a defensive replacement.  Or they may try to trade one of them for pitching help to help fill the void of three starters that have departed from their rotation.

Hamilton's MVP season showed his desirable ceiling.  He hit .359/.411/.633, 32 HRs and 100 RBIs with a 8.4 WAR.  While that may represent his peak, his numbers last season (.285/.354/.577, 43 HRs, 128 RBIs, 4.4 WAR) were nothing to scoff at.  He is one of the game's best power hitters, still in the prime years of his career.

The big question with this contract is how much longer he will stay in the prime years of his career.  He's 31 years old and there are signs that his decline phase has already begun.  His HR total last season may have been a career high, but so was his strike out percentage (25.5%).  His swinging strike percentage (20.0%) was easily a career high and can be partially attributed to an impatient approach that saw him swing at 45.4% of pitches outside the strike zone.  His production dropped off dramatically after a scorching start - a slump he bizarrely blamed on his struggle with quitting chewing tobacco.  His season ended in the one game Wild Card game against Baltimore, in which he famously went 0-4 with two strike outs, while only seeing a total of 8 pitches.  The lasting image of his final game in a Rangers uniform will be the home fans in Texas sending him off with a chorus of boos. 

Advanced defensive metrics are tricky to rely on in small sample sizes, even if that sample is over the course of a full season.  Hamilton has rated as at least an average defensive outfielder in his career, but not so much in center field, where he played the majority of his innings last season.  His -12.6 UZR was a huge negative for the Rangers outfield last season.  At least with Trout tracking down anything hit remotely near center field, Hamilton can settle into a corner outfield spot where he would be less of a liability, especially as he ages and his range declines even further.  However, moving to a corner outfield spot diminishes his value.

Part of what makes Hamilton riskier for a deal like this is his long injury history.  He played a career high 156 games in his first season in Texas in 2008, but since then has played in only 89, 133, 121 and 148 games in the following seasons.  Durability doesn't tend to improve as players age, so the fact that he rarely even comes close to playing a full season has to be a concern.

Perhaps you could write off at least a few of his injuries to bad luck or the fact that he plays so hard.  Then again, maybe his body is more prone to injury due to being weakened by years of alcohol and substance abuse.  Hamilton's demons are well documented.  His path to the majors was delayed by suspensions for cocaine usage that sent him in and out of rehab and cost him two years of his playing career.  Tampa Bay drafted him, but gave up on him when they allowed him to be taken in the Rule 5 draft by Cincinnati, who then traded him to Texas for Edinson Volquez.  Hamilton says that finding religion is what led him to recover from his addictions and continue his career, but like with any addict, there is always the concern of a relapse.  He had at least two relapses in the past three years with his drinking problem, with the most recent one being last February.

The environment around him and culture of the clubhouse are key factors in keeping Hamilton from straying from his sober path.  He had a strong support system in Texas that for the most part was successful in keeping him straight, but it's unclear if he'll have that same support elsewhere.  In LA, he'll be in a bigger market under a brighter spot light than ever before, playing in a city with a Hollywood lure that invites the type of partying lifestyle that could corrupt someone with Hamilton's past.  Aside from maybe New York, it's hard to find a worse landing spot for him in that regard.

If Hamilton can keep his head on straight and avoid the many temptations around him in LA, he should still be a productive player for at least a couple more seasons.  Given that the Angels lost Zack Grienke, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana from their rotation (not to mention CJ Wilson is currently recovering from surgery), the Angels are counting on an improved offense to make up the difference.  The addition of Hamilton, along with a full season of Trout and the continued production of Albert Pujols, should give the Angels the most feared line-up in the majors.  After last year's spending spreed to acquire Wilson and Pujols, the Angels are clearly all in to win now.  Plus they now have to compete for attention in their own city with the free spending Dodgers.  With that in mind, you can see why they were willing to take the risk with Hamilton.

Just as long as they are aware of just how big a risk it is.  If it pays off with a deep playoff run or even a championship in the next couple years, it will be well worth it, even if his contract becomes a sunk cost by the end of it (at least he can get some tips from Vernon Wells on how to have a contract that is a burden on the franchise).  However, $25 million a year (Alex Rodriguez is the only hitter that makes more per season) is a lot of money to pay for a guy that may be past his peak already, regardless of how you factor all of his issues into his decline years.  When you do consider his injury and substance abuse issues are likely to shorten his career, five years seems like a year or two too many.

Publicly, the Rangers are said to be upset that Hamilton didn't give them a chance to match the offer, like he told them he would.  Privately, they may be taking a sigh of relief that they now have an excuse not to overpay for his services.  Maybe it will all work out for the Angels, but let's just say I'm glad my Red Sox didn't give him that contract!