Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Things I Noticed: Week 14

There's only three weeks left in the season, but a few playoff spots are up for grabs and there will still be a fight for seeding and home field advantage down the stretch.

One of the big stories of the week is that Paul Tagliabue overturned the suspensions of four current and former Saints players for their role in the bounty scandal.  The former commissioner was called in to review the appeal of the ruling handed down by current commissioner Roger Goodell.  While it was clear the Saints participated in a performance pool that rewarded key plays, including hard hits that could be worthy of league fines, the case had been "contaminated" by the Saints organization.  Sounds like he is agreeing that they were wrong for what they did, but letting them off on their suspensions by blaming the coaches and the GM instead.
Here are some things I noticed this week:
  • Denver won their eighth straight game Thursday night to become the first AFC team to reach 10 wins.  Knowshon Moreno carried a heavy load (32 carries, 119 yards, 1 TD) to help the Broncos maintain their early lead.  Despite playing on the practice squad for the early part of the year, the season ending injury to Willis McGahee opened the door for Moreno to get another chance.  So far it's paying off.
  • Now for our weekly update on Peyton Manning's rise through the record books!  Manning joined Brett Favre as the only QB to reach 5,000 career completions.  He also has now won 10 games in a season for a record 12 times.
  • Darren McFadden returned to the Raiders backfield after a four game absence.  He ripped off a 36 yard run to open the second half, but gained a total of only 16 yards on his other 10 carries.
  • The Cowboys have a winning record for the first time since Week 3, but the win was overshadowed by tragedy.  Early Saturday morning, Cowboys practice squad line backer Jerry Brown was killed in a drunk driving accident.  Teammate Josh Brent was the driver and is currently being held on charges of intoxication manslaughter.
  • Despite the off-field distractions the team dealt with, Tony Romo still managed to lead a comeback from a 9 point deficit in the 4th quarter.  He found Dez Bryant in the end zone to make it a one score game.  Then the defense quickly got them the ball back after sacking Andy Dalton (for the 5th time in the game) on a key third down, which led to the game winning field goal drive as time expired.
  • Dez Bryant suffered a fractured index finger in the game that clouds his future for the rest of the season. He returned to the game after briefly sitting out to have his finger examined, catching that TD pass after the injury, but it's unclear if he will be able to continue to play through it or require season ending surgery.
  • AJ Green is officially in a slump.  Two straight games with under 100 yards and no TDs in three straight games!  He dropped a couple passes, one of which could have gone for a score.  Just an off game for the stud receiver.
  • The Bengals appeared to have scored a TD that would have put them up by two scores, but Marvin Jones stepped out of bounds in the back of the end zone before the catch and was flagged for illegal touching.  Jones was clearly pushed out of bounds by a Dallas defender, who should have been flagged for illegal contact, resulting in off-setting penalties.  Instead, the Bengals were backed up five yards and ended up settling for only a field goal in a game they eventually lost by one point.
  • The Rams have won three straight games for the first time since 2006 after Sam Bradford led the game winning TD drive with under a minute to play.  Bradford connected with Brandon Gibson, then completed the two point conversion to give the Rams a three point lead, leaving the Bills without enough time to counter.
  • Bills fans need to start petitioning the team to free CJ Spiller, as the explosive RB has been criminally under utilized.  Despite a close game, in which they led for most of the 4th quarter, Spiller only carried the ball 7 times (for a healthy 5.3 average).  Fred Jackson once again earned the greater end of their split (9 carries) despite losing a costly fumble deep in Rams territory and exiting the game early with a leg injury.
    • Spiller isn't built to be a work horse back, but there's still no reason to keep him at single digit carries. Adrian Peterson leads the league in rushing, but has carried the ball well over 100 times more than Spiller.  If Spiller had even close to the amount of carries as AP then he'd be leading the league by a wide margin.
  • The Chiefs got off to a good start when Jamaal Charles took the ball 80 yards for a score on the first play of the game, but it was all down hill after that.  Charles finished with 165 yards in the game, but the Chiefs never managed to put up any additional points in the eventual blow out loss to the Browns.  Emotions over the loss of a teammate fueled them to victory last week, but one week later they are back to being the same old Chiefs.
  • Trent Richardson tied Jim Brown's franchise rookie rushing TD record with his 8th and 9th scores of the season.
  • For all his accomplishments as a rookie thus far, Andrew Luck still has plenty to work on.  The number of TD passes he's thrown matches his league leading 18 INTs.  He threw two picks this week, one of which was returned the other way for a score.  Luck was falling forward as a defender was bringing him down and he threw the ball away in desperation.  The CBS crew did a great job of putting together a still shot of the reply that clearly showed Luck's knee was down with the ball still in his hand, but unfortunately the refs don't have the opportunity to see that same shot.  With the replays they did have access to, it was too close to overturn.  You could argue that the refs technically got it wrong, but a veteran QB would have held on to the football and taken the sack rather than risk throwing the ball away.  Lesson learned for the rookie.
  • The Colts defense returned the favor with a pick six of their own near the end of the third quarter that briefly gave the Colts their first lead.  The Titans would re-take the lead early in the fourth quarter, but a pair of field goals put the Colts back ahead for good.
  • Kenny Britt has been quiet this season, but exploded in this game with 8 catches for 143 yards, accounting for well over half of the yardage thrown by Jake Locker.
  • Adrian Peterson rushed for over 100 yards and 2 TDs... in the first quarter!  He finished with 154 to extend his league leading rushing total to 1,600.  He's now rushed for over 100 yards in 7 straight games.  If AP can average 133.3 yards per game over his last three games, he'll reach 2,000 yards.
  • AP's heroics and a defensive score by Harrison Smith made up for another poor performance from Christian Ponder, who continued to look skittish in the pocket.  He again failed to break the 100 yard passing mark and threw an ugly INT off his back foot that deprived the Vikings of the chance to add more points before the half.
  • The reeling Bears have now lost 4 of their last 5 games.  Thanks to their hot start to the season, the 8-5 Bears remain in the playoff hunt, only one game behind Green Bay in the NFC North and a game ahead of Washington/Dallas/Minnesota for the second Wild Card spot, but they are trending dangerously in the wrong direction.  Jay Cutler was knocked out of the game with a neck injury that could further derail their season.  The defense isn't creating turnovers and putting points on the board at the historic pace they were earlier this season, so without that advantage they may be forced to rely on an offense currently led by Jason Campbell.  They better hope Cutler is back for next week's match up with the Packers, because a loss in that game essentially dooms their chances for winning the division.
  • Things haven't gone the Chargers way often this season, but everything seemed to go their way this week as they spoiled Ben Roethlisberger's return to the Steelers.  The final score showed the Chargers only winning by 10, but that's after a couple of late garbage time scores that made the game seem closer than it ever was.
  • One of the many plays that didn't go Pittsburgh's way was the Chargers recovering a fumble in the end zone for a score.  Roethlisberger attempted a screen pass to Antonio Brown, but the ball hit the back of his tight end instead and bounced into the end zone.  Since it had been a backward pass, the play was ruled a fumble, which was recovered by the defense.
  • San Diego has gone eight straight games without scoring a rushing TD.  Ryan Matthew scored his only TD of the season against the Saints in Week 5, but that's been it since then.
  • Roethlisberger looked rusty at times in his return, but did manage to throw 3 TDs (granted two of them were meaningless garbage time scores).  Mike Wallace caught two of those TD passes, while Brown had the other.  It's been a while since all these weapons in the passing game have been on the field at once, but if they can find a groove again in the next three weeks they can still be a dangerous team heading into the postseason.
  • The Eagles got their first win in over two months with a last second score.  Rookie QB Nick Foles showed the poise of a veteran on the final drive.  He connected on a pass to Jason Avant on 4th down, but Avant was stopped at the one yard line.  With the clock ticking away and no time outs remaining, Foles hurried the team to the line to spike the ball, leaving only a couple seconds remaining.  On the last play of the game he threw a perfectly placed pass to Jeremy Maclin for the game winning score.
  • Bryce Brown rushed for a total of 347 yards over the last two games, but managed a pathetic 6 yards on 12 carries against the tough Bucs run defense (best in the league with 78.2 rushing yards allowed).  On the bright side, at least he didn't fumble this week!
  • Josh Freeman overcame a slow start and scoreless first half to lead three TD drives that gave the Bucs a lead mid-way through the 4th quarter, but the defense couldn't hold on.
  • The Redskins rally looked hopeless once Robert Griffin III limped off the field with a sprained knee on their final drive, but fellow rookie QB Kirk Cousins came in to take over and finished the drive with a game tying pass to Pierre Garcon.  He followed that up with a designed QB draw that tied the game on a two point conversion.  Cousins connected with both his passes on the drive and didn't even need to attempt another.  After the Redskins defense stopped the Ravens opening drive in OT, they returned the punt 64 yards to put them in field goal range.  After a few short runs to inch their way closer, they kicked the game winning kick to seal the miraculous comeback.
    • The good news on the RG3 front is that he appears to have avoided a devastating ACL tear that everyone feared.  Turns out it's just a sprained knee and he should be ok.
  • Anquan Boldin turned two of his three catches into scores.  Joe Flacco has struggled in road games this season, but managed 3 TD passes, all in the first half, to give the Ravens a halftime lead. 
  • Cam Newton was on a mission and he delivered against the Falcons.  He threw for 287 yards and two scores and also rushed for a career high 116 yards, including a 72 yard TD run.  It was Newton's first victory in four tries against his hometown Atlanta team.
    • Cam is on pace for nearly 4,000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards, with 28 total TDs.  So much for that sophomore slump that everyone was concerned about a few short weeks ago.
  • Matt Ryan threw scores to both Roddy White and Julio Jones, but their stats were relatively empty, looking much better than the game actually was.
  • Mark Sanchez re-claimed his starting job, at least for now.  He was hardly impressive, but was good enough to beat a punchless Jaguars team.
  • The Jets may only be 6-7, but they still have a shot at the playoffs.  Their last three games are all very winnable (Tennessee, San Diego, Buffalo).  If they can win out the rest of their schedule to get to 9-7 they will be right in the mix for a Wild Card.  Considering how dreadful this team has looked for most of the season, it would be a shock to see them in the postseason, but it could happen.  It was only a few years ago that Rex Ryan pronounced his team's playoff chances dead, only to have the Colts and Bengals (both having already locked up their playoff spots) lay down for them in the final two weeks to allow them to sneak in the back door for a Wild Card spot, which they rode all the way to the AFC championship game.
  • Frank Gore rushed for 63 yards to pass the 1,000 yard mark for the sixth time in his career.  He also scored his 50th career TD, tying a franchise record.
  • Colin Kaepernick has a near perfect 99.2 QBR in the fourth quarter since taking over as the starter for the 49ers.  He hasn't played enough to qualify, but his 78.1 QBR for the season would rank third in the league behind Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.
    • Then again, Alex Smith wasn't far behind, with a QBR of 70.1 in a sample size large enough to qualify for 6th in the league.  Smith actually is ahead of Kaepernick in the more traditional QB rating, where he ranks 3rd in the league (Kaepernick would be 7th if he qualified).
  • The Giants toasted the Saints in a blowout victory behind 4 TDs from Eli Manning.  Rookie RB David Wilson finally had the breakout game the Giants had been hoping for when they selected him at the end of the first round.  He gained 100 yards on only 13 carries and scored twice.  He even had a slight edge in carries over Ahmad Bradshaw, but it remains to be seen if this is a changing of the guard with Wilson replacing him as the lead back.
    • Wilson has been used primarily as a kick returner this season, but after his best game of the season he should start to earn more carries on offense, even if they aren't ready to make him the starter yet.  His 327 all-purpose yards was the third most all time by a rookie.
  • The Saints rallied late in the third quarter to cut the lead to a one possession game with a pair of Darren Sproles TDs (one on the ground, another through the air), but the Giants would counter to bury them in the 4th quarter.  Another Drew Brees INT stalled any chance of the rally continuing and soon after the Giants would make it a three possession game.  The Saints never got any closer after that.
  • We knew the Seahawks played well at home.  We also knew that the Cardinals have been terrible the past 9 weeks.  But wow!  58-0?  Really?  That's the 4th highest shutout since 1940.  Seattle's defense was dominant.  They forced 8 turnovers, 3 sacks and scored 2 defensive TDs.
    • If you had Seattle's defense in your fantasy football league, you probably won this week.  They scored the most points of anyone this week - not just the most for a defense, the most for any player!
  • Marshawn Lynch went beast mode again, racking up 128 yards and 3 TDs.  Russell Wilson did just fine, but his stats were held down due to the fact that the game got so out of hand that they were able to send in backup Matt Flynn to take over with 10 minutes remaining... in the third quarter!  Hey, have to make Flynn earn that big contract somehow.
  • The Cardinals made a mid-game QB change as well, but I'm guessing it was for a different reason.  The Ryan Lindely experiment appeared to have been over, as John Skelton reclaimed his starting role.  Except that Skelton is even more awful than Lindley had been, accounting for 5 turnovers before finally getting yanked mid-way through the 3rd quarter.  Skelton's QBR for the game was .4!  Notice the decimal point comes before the four.  I don't remember ever seeing a Total Quarterback Rating of under 1.0, but Skelton got less than half that!
  • Larry Fitzgerald's father says the Cardinals have quit on this season.  Are you sure they aren't just this terrible?  I'm not sure if Fitzgerald told his father that he and his teammates had given up or if that was his own opinion based on what he's seen, but could you really blame Fitzgerald if he had given up?  He's not the type of player to do that, but it's too bad he can't just quit and move to a team with a halfway decent QB.  It's a shame to see one of the game's best receiving threats wasting the prime of his career, dwindling away in the Arizona desert.
  • The Packers took a step closer toward the NFC North title with a win over the Lions.  Aaron Rodgers threw for only 173 yards without a TD, but his 27 yard scramble for a score in the third quarter that gave the Packers their first lead turned out to be one of the game's biggest plays.
    • It was the first time Rodgers had failed to throw a TD pass at Lambeau Field in 36 career home starts.  On the bright side though, that TD run was the longest of his career and a season high for the team.  Rodgers is making history, for better or worse.
  • The Lions have now lost three straight games where they've blown double digit leads, tying an NFL record.  So the Lions are making history as well, but only the "worse" kind.
  • Jason Hanson has been the Lions kicker for the past 21 years, but has never won a game at Lambeu field.  The Lions have lost a record 22 straight road games to the Packers, dating back to 1991.
  • If this was a potential preview of the AFC title game, the Patriots have to like their chances after embarrassing the Texans on Monday Night.  Tom Brady tossed 4 TD passes for the 18th time in his career (tied for 4th most all time in 4 TD games).  Aaron Hernandez caught two of them and the recently re-acquired Donte Stallworth out raced two Texans defenders for a 63 yard score.
  • Does the Patriots win streak sound familiar? Well it should.  The Patriots have a perfect 21-0 record in the second half of the season since 2010.  The last time they lost a game in the second half of the season was to this Texans team in the regular season finale in 2009, which was a meaningless game with no playoff implications.  Of course that was also the game Wes Welker shredded his knee, leading to a disappointing early playoff exit.
    • Part of the reason for the Patriots late season dominance is the ability of the defense to toughen up late in the season.  Per ESPN Stats & Information, since 2010 opposing QBs have a QBR of 68.6 in the first half of the season against the Pats (30th in the league), but in the second half of the season that drops to 37.4 for opposing QBs (2nd best in the league).
  • The Texans doomed themselves with too many mistakes.  Poorly timed penalties extended New England drives, while a red zone turnover by Schaub helped the Pats keep Houston off the scoreboard until late in the third quarter.  By then, the Pats had built an insurmountable lead.
  • Even when the Texans made a play it turned against them.  JJ Watt was able to force a fumble, but the ball bounced into the end zone and was recovered by Brandon Lloyd for a Patriots score.
  • The Texans are known for their strong defense and running game, but they aren't built to come from behind.  Once the Patriots had built a big lead, it was all over.  The Texans looked defeated long before the final seconds ticked off the clock.  Trailing in the fourth quarter, they didn't even bother with a hurry up offense and continued to run the ball to keep the clock moving.
  • Houston still has a one game lead for the stop seed in the AFC, but still have two match-ups with the potentially playoff bound Colts.  If Indy manages a sweep of those two games they could actually end up taking the division.  Even if they split, it opens the door for New England to pass them for the top seed, now that they own the tie breaker.  If these teams meet in the postseason, Houston can't have much confidence coming into the game if it's played in Foxboro again.

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