Red Sox off-season review

We're approximately halfway through the off-season, with less than 8 weeks before pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training.  The Hot Stove is beginning to cool off, as most of the top free agents have already been signed.  Many of those freshly signed players will be putting on a Red Sox uniform this spring, as Boston has added more players via free agency than any team, in addition to adding a new manager. 

The Red Sox had plenty of holes to fill on a roster that you might say underachieved last season (ok, understatement of the year).  So you had to expect a massive turnover was due, but given that they avoided the top high priced options on the market, how much have they really improved?

This team lost 93 games last year in a season that spiraled out of control due to injuries and a fractured clubhouse that revolted against former manager Bobby Valentine.  Replacing him with John Farrell, who is well respected by the team's core veterans from his time as the team's pitching coach a few years ago, will go a long way toward improving this team.  While the Red Sox didn't dominate the headlines by chasing marquee names, they did add several useful pieces that will help improve the team.

The rotation will get a boost from the addition of Ryan Dempster.  The veteran pitcher led the NL with a 2.25 ERA in 16 starts with the Cubs last season, before being dealt to Texas as the trade deadline.  After some initial struggles changing leagues (8 runs allowed in 2 of his first 3 starts for the Rangers), Dempster settled down and ended up going 5-0 with a 1.91 ERA over his next 5 starts.  That ugly 5.09 ERA that he posted with the Rangers would look a lot better if you take away those rough starts during the adjustment period to his first time in a new league.  Boston doesn't need Dempster to be the ace that he was in Chicago.  They just need him to be a reliable middle of the rotation starter that can be counted on for a solid 200+ innings, as he's done in 4 of the past 5 seasons.  Using him to replace some of the replacement level pitchers the team was forced to run out there last season is certainly worth a couple extra wins over the course of the season.

The outfield was re-stocked with a couple options, headlined by Shane Victorino.  While he is coming off a down season at the plate (.255/.321/.383), he's only a year removed from a season where he posted a 5.9 WAR (per FanGraphs).  Even as he approaches the downside of his career, he can still provide solid defense and base running, while bringing some much needed energy to the team.  His ability to shift over to centerfield also gives them some flexibility in the event of another injury to Jacoby Ellsbury, or perhaps even a contingency plan in the event of an Ellsbury trade.  With Victorino capable of filling in at the position and prized prospect Jackie Bradley, Jr. poised to take over in a couple years, there's now a greater chance that Ellsbury won't be back after this season.  If the Sox fall out of contention by July, expect him to be on the trade market.

Speaking of players coming off of down years, if the team ever finalizes it's deal with Mike Napoli, they will either have overpaid for a declining veteran or found a bargain for a player ready for a bounce back season.  Napoli's 2011 season was certainly an outlier (.320/.414/.631), as he's never come close to being a .300 hitter before that, but that doesnt' necessarily mean that last season (.227/.343/.469) is what we should expect of him in Boston.  He would still be a solid addition if you split the difference of those two seasons and expect production somewhere in the middle.  He will probably end up playing the majority of his games at first base, which should limit the wear and tear on his body and allow him to focus more on producing at the plate.  While he has been a very good hitter in the past for a catcher, his production is likely to fall short of the elite first basemen in the league, but at least he provides solid power numbers - certainly better than what they were getting out of James Loney at the end of last season.  It also helps that Napoli has a history of crushing the ball at Fenway Park, where historically he has been a Sox killer (.306/.397/.710).  Hopefully now he'll be doing that kind of damage for them instead of against them.

The signing of Stephen Drew likely indicates the team has moved on from any hopes that Jose Iglesias will be able to contribute at the major league level.  It's unfortunate, considering the young short stop has one of the league's best gloves, but if he struggles to even hit his own weight at the major league level then what he takes away from the offense may outweigh the value he brings on defense.  Drew on the other hand is a proven player that is at least solid on both sides of the game.  Sox fans may struggle to embrace the younger brother of the much maligned J.D. Drew, who like his brother, has a reputation for being injury prone and emotionless.  His former manager in Arizona even accused him of taking his time returning from a gruesome ankle injury last season, before the team shipped him to Oakland.  However, also like his brother, he's likely to surprise us by contributing better than expected numbers.  That at least makes him worth a flier on a one year deal.  If it doesn't work out, they can still give Iglesias a shot while they wait on top prospect Xander Bogaerts to be ready for the show.

The bullpen was a mess last year, but if Andrew Bailey is healthy (however unlikely that may be) then he stabilizes the closer role.  Alfredo Aceves failed miserably in that role, but can now return to his role in middle relief, where he brings value with his flexibility to be used in so many different situations, including the occasional spot start.  The addition of Koji Uehara (1.75 ERA, 0.64 WHIP last year with Texas) is a significant under the radar signing that gives the team a solid set up option in the event that Daniel Bard and Mark Melancon can't turn their careers around after disappointing seasons.

It may seem like the team has spent a lot of money on mediocre talent, but those additions at least have track records to suggest they are more than capable of producing more than the players they are replacing.  There may be no super star additions, but add up all the ones they did make and there are added wins to be found.

The team may not be quite done adding to it's roster yet, but even if the heavy lifting of the off-season has been done, there is still plenty of reason to expect improvement.  According to ESPN's ZiPS projection, the Red Sox are expected to win about 85 games this season, which is a big improvement over last season.  Granted, that's not enough to contend for the division title (and not nearly as big of an improvement as the Toronto Blue Jays, who have been wheeling and dealing their way to the top of the division projections), but it is enough to put them in the hunt. 

But what if Farrell can fix whatever was wrong with ace Jon Lester last year?  What if the team isn't derailed by a string of devastating injuries the way it has the past few seasons?  What if the new veteran additions provide stable leadership to a clubhouse that was called toxic at times last year?  If these things all fall into place, it's not out of the question for this team to exceed expectations.  There's still enough talent on this roster to make them a surprise contender.

Even if they fall short once again, these improvements should at least put them in the race.  For now, that's about all they can hope for while they await the arrival of their next wave of talented prospects.  The team may be rebuilding, but at least they are doing it the right way by finding mid-tier veterans on short term contracts to bridge the gap until the kids are ready to play.  That financial responsibility is a more sound philosophy than throwing blank checks at the top free agents every winter, which we learned from the likes of Gonzalez, Crawford and Lackey doesn't always work out very well. 

Red Sox Nation, don't be disappointed that the team didn't win the off-season.  Be thankful that the team has a plan to build toward winning what really matters down the road.