Wednesday, August 1, 2012

MLB Trade Deadline Buyers & Sellers

The MLB trade deadline passed yesterday afternoon with a flurry of last minute deals.  The addition of an extra Wild Card team in each league has kept playoff hopes alive for several teams that in previous years would have been considered out of the race at this point, which may have limited the pool of potential sellers as the deadline approached.  With more of a demand for impact talent than there was to supply, some teams were left without a partner at the trade table.  Those that were able to swing deals for a difference maker for the home stretch may have added the missing pieces to put their team over the top.

Now that the deadline dust has settled, let's look at the teams that were buyers and sellers.

Buyers

LA Angels:
The biggest prize on the trade market this season was Zack Greinke.  He gives the Angels a legitimate ace to join an already loaded rotation, which also includes Jared Weaver, CJ Wilson and Dan Haren.  As a former Cy Young award winner, Greinke is an elite pitcher capable of dominating hitters.  While his current 3.39 ERA may not appear to be anything special in today's pitcher friendly era, his advanced statistics show he is a much better pitcher than that number suggests.  He averages a strikeout per inning and has a FIP of 2.45.  Blame an above average BABIP and poor infield defense from the Brewers for the discrepancy in his ERA and what should be expected based on how well he's pitched.  Greinke is an ace.  With questions about Haren's health and the disappointing season for Ervin Santana, the Angels went out and shored up their rotation with a front line starter that should be worth an extra couple of wins over the remainder of the season.  If Haren can get healthy and pitch to his ability, the Angels should enter the postseason with the most imposing starting rotation in the majors.

LA Dodgers:
They missed out on Ryan Dempster, which was a disappointment given how open he was about wanting to play for them, but that didn't stop the Dodgers from being aggressive at the deadline.  Everyone always wants more starting pitching, but a front line starter wasn't the biggest priority for them.  Their offense has been anemic this season, ranking only 26th in the majors in runs scored.  Granted their run production has suffered due to the lengthy absence of Matt Kemp, but now that he's returned to the lineup, he was in dire need of some help.  The Dodgers gave their lineup a boost by making trades for Hanley Ramirez and Shane Victorino, without having to part with top prospect Zach Lee. 

Ramirez has mysteriously tailed off the past two seasons from the elite performance that once made him the league's best SS.  His production has dropped to where he's now hitting only .246/.321/.429 this season, while often times appearing disinterested and disgruntled in Miami.  A change a scenery may be just what he needs.  If nothing else, Ramirez can fill in at 3B or SS.  As disappointing as he has been, he's a clear upgrade over what they had in either spot.  He's still young enough to bounce back to his previous level of high performance and still offers decent power and speed. 

As for Victorino, he joins the team in a similar situation.  He's hitting a career low .261/.324/.401, but that's still an upgrade over the platoon of Abreu/Rivera that they were using in the outfield.  With Kemp firmly entrenched in center field and Andre Either in right, Victorino will likely move over to left field to replace that duo, which will improve the team both in the field and at the plate.  The hope is that a playoff atmosphere will energize both players to perform closer to their career averages.

The Dodgers also added some pieces to their bullpen by trading for Randy Choate and Brandon League.  It may not be as flashy as trading for a top starting pitcher, but bolstering the bullpen may prove to be just as effective.

Chicago White Sox:
If there is one thing you can count on at the trade deadline, it's that Kenny Williams will be active.  With the White Sox in contention for the division title, this year proved to be no different.  Despite not having a deep farm system to trade with or much money to spend, he managed to pull off a few trades that improved the team in several areas of need.

First he added an impact bat in Kevin Youkilis.  While he struggled through an injury plagued first half in Boston, Youk is still capable of being a solid hitter.  The Red Sox were ready to move on, with rookie Will Middlebrooks ready to take over the third place spot in Beantown, but Chicago was in need of an upgrade at the hot corner and were willing to take the chance that Youk would rebound.  Since changing his Sox, he's already improved at the plate, hitting .245/.364/.445 with his new team.  While those numbers are still below his career averages, they are at least trending up from what he was hitting earlier in the season.  If nothing else, he provides the lineup with another veteran hitter that will grind out at bats, wear out pitchers and find ways to get on base.

The Sox then added to their bullpen by trading for former Astros closer Brett Myers.  While Addison Reed still has a firm hold on the closer gig in Chicago, he's been shaky at times in his first season in that role.  Myers offers a proven back up in that role if Reed were to falter.  In the meantime, he improves their bullpen depth by becoming a top set up option.

The real wild card in the moves they made was the acquisition of Francisco Liriano.  The former Twin has become very erratic since he burst on to the scene as a dominant starter in 2006.  His Jekyl and Hyde act makes him extremely frustrating to watch, as he can be a strike out machine in shutting down a team one start, then a complete mess the next.  It's hard to predict what that Sox will get out of him, but with John Danks likely done for the season and Chris Sale reaching uncharted waters in terms of the number of innings he's pitched (he's already been shut down this week with a tired arm), Chicago was in need of another starter.  If the Sox make it to October, Liriano is the type of guy that could either win them a playoff game, or pitch them right out of one.

Detroit Tigers:
The biggest threat to Chicago's chances at the AL Central title is the Tigers.  Their season has been a bit of a disappointment given the high hopes many had for them back in Spring Training (some crazy writers even picked them to win the World Series.  Ok yeah, that was me).  Handing out a big money contract to Prince Fielder to join a lineup that already included Miguel Cabrera will raise expectations.  Especially when you add in Justin Verlander, coming off a Cy Young/MVP season.  Unfortunately, the Tigers forgot about a few things this off-season, such as depth and defense.

Detroit helped fill in some of those holes in one trade, adding Anibal Sanchez to the rotation and Omar Infante to fill in at 2B.  Verlander anchors their rotation and Doug Fister has shown the ability to be a reliable option to follow, but after that the Tigers had nothing but questions.  Max Scherzer can be erratic.  He still piles up the strike outs, but also gets lit up too often to be a reliable postseason option.  Rick Porcello has been a mess (really, who would have guessed a ground ball pitcher and the league's worst infield defense would be a bad match?).  Sanchez may not be an ace, especially outside of the pitcher friendly confines of that Miami ballpark, but he is a strike out pitcher and a solid middle of the rotation starter.

Infante also fills a huge need in returning to his original team.  They were getting below replacement level production from Ryan Raburn at the plate and his fielding at 2B helped contribute to the worst infield defense in the majors.  Infante gives them solid production with his bat and glove.  He doesn't have to be anything special.  Just playing at the level he has been at all season would provide a drastic upgrade.  His WAR of 2.1 replaces Raburn (-1.3), indicating that Infante should add at least a couple extra wins for the Tigers in the last two months of the season.  Given their current 2.5 game deficient behind Chicago, that may be all they need.

Texas Rangers:
After watching their AL West Rival Angels acquire a top of the rotation starter, the Rangers could not be content to sit back and do nothing.  They were involved in the Greinke talks, but weren't willing to part with one of their top prospects for a two month rental.  They kicked the tires on Cliff Lee, but the Phillies ultimately decided to hang on to him.  So instead, they made a last second deal to scoop up Ryan Dempster.  It was believed that Dempster was likely headed to the Dodgers or Braves, but the Rangers stole him away, without having to give up their best prospects (Jurickson Profar, Martin Perez or Mike Olt). 

The Rangers' rotation depth was being tested after the losses of Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz.  The shell of Roy Oswalt has been a disaster and the Rangers lacked a true ace to lead their rotation.  Dempster's 2.25 ERA is second in the majors.  While he won't maintain that level of success in a hitters haven like the ballpark in Arlington, not to mention that his 3.42 FIP suggests regression was due to come anyway, he is still a solid starter.  He might not be the stud they were looking for, but he provides their best option to lead the rotation into the postseason.

Sellers

Chicago Cubs:
Theo Epstein knew he had a mess to clean up when he took over as President of the Cubs and it would take time to fix all their issues.  He may not have accomplished all he set out to do at the deadline, but he did manage to sell off some pieces to help build for the future.  Ryan Dempster was the big piece to trade, as he will be a free agent after this season and the team wasn't likely to spend to re-sign him during their rebuilding process.  Their attempt to send him to Atlanta for prospect Randall Delgado was blocked by Dempster's 10-5 rights (players with 10 years in the league and at least 5 with the same team can invoke a no trade clause).  Dempster was hoping to hold out for a trade to the Dodgers, where he could have joined old friend Ted Lilly, but the teams couldn't agree on the terms to a deal.  The Cubs instead had to settle for sending Dempster to Texas for a less desirable package at the last minute just to ensure they would get something for him.

They did make a different trade with the Braves, sending Paul Mohalm and Reed Johnson to Atlanta for a package headlined by Arodys Vizcaino.  The trade netted them a top prospect, but one who comes with some risk, as he is coming off of Tommy John surgery. 

Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer would have liked to have done more, but unfortunately Matt Garza's ill timed injury made him impossible to trade and they couldn't find a taker for Alfonso Soriano's albatross of a contract.  Perhaps those are deals they can revisit this winter.

Philadelphia Phillies:
Their half decade reign over the NL East has come to a painful end, as the Phillies find themselves far out of playoff contention and forced to become sellers at the deadline.  After locking up Cole Hamels to a 6 year, $144 million deal, the Phillies were left with little payroll flexibility.  With already over $145 million committed to next year's roster (that's without even filling out a full roster), the team will almost certainly struggle to stay below the luxury tax line.  With the stricter laws in place to penalize repeat offenders of the tax threshold, the Phillies were desperate to try to get under this year's tax line, which meant selling off a number of high priced players.

Shane Victorino was struggling in the last year of his contract and wasn't expected to return anyway, so he had to be let go (lucky for them they didn't overpay on an extension for him after last year's career season).  They couldn't afford to pay Hunter Pence $13 million next year, so he was shipped out too.  They even considered trading Cliff Lee, just a year and a half after making him the league's highest paid pitcher (based on annual salary, at $25 million per year).  In the end, they held on to Lee.  A smart move, given that the only real strength they can rely on to try to compete next year is their dominant rotation.  Being able to string together starts from Lee, Hamels and Halladay should make any team competitive, but the bloated contracts they mistakenly handed out to veterans like Ryan Howard (an awful 5 year, $125 million extension given to him two years ago that didn't kick in until this year, when he's well past his prime) and Jonathan Papelbon (is any closer really worth 4 years, $50 million?) hold them back from adding much needed depth.  This will be a team filled with holes for the next several years, which they will be unable to fill without severe financial repercussions.  At least by trading away a couple of their expensive veterans, they managed to ease some of that financial burden, while also re-stocking their farm system.

Miami Marlins:
This was supposed to be a big season for the Marlins.  They were moving into a new ballpark and spent a ton of money in free agency to lure in big names like Jose Reyes, Mark Buerhle and Heath Bell.  This was supposed to all lead to a contending team and a stadium filled with an energized fan base.  Unfortunately, it hasn't worked out very well.  Reyes and Buerhle have been adequate, but not quite what they expected.  Bell has been a disaster and hangs on to the closer role by a thread, after having already lost the role once this season.  Hanley Ramirez pouted after being forced to move to 3B with the arrival of Reyes, then continued to underachieve before finally being dealt to the Dodgers.  Mike Stanton, the power hitting phenom, has missed the past month with an injury.  As their season spiraled down the drain, the Marlins found themselves doing the same thing they have always done - having a fire sale.  Ramirez, Sanchez and Choate were all shipped out, while staff ace Josh Johnson was heavily rumored to follow (he stayed, but that may have more to do with teams being gun shy about trading for him due to his sub-par performance and lengthy injury history).  All the good will the team built with their strong off-season vanished and soon their fans will to.  It'll be back to the drawing board this winter as the team tries once again to piece together a contending team.

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