I'll break down the standings for each division, throw in some bold predictions for what we might expect to see this season and cap it off with my predictions for some end of the season awards.
AFC East
1. New England Patriots (13-3)
2. Buffalo Bills (9-7)
3. New York Jets (7-9)
4. Miami Dolphins (3-13)
Buffalo won't pose much of a threat to the Patriots reign, but they are poised to make a jump this year. The addition of Mario Williams to their defensive line will solidify a fearsome pass rush. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been inconsistent in his career, but played very well in the first half of last season before injuring his ribs and watching his performance drop steeply. If he and Fred Jackson can stay healthy, they could be a Wild Card team. Meanwhile, the Jets are sure to be a circus show this year with a brewing QB controversy thanks to Tim Tebow's popularity. Things got ugly at the end of last season and they very well could get worse. Speaking of ugly, Miami finds themselves in the basement of this division. Maybe throwing rookie QB Ryan Tannehill in as the starter from Day 1 will prove to be beneficial for his development, but it sure isn't likely to help the Dolphins chances to win this year. It doesn't help that they've left him without any weapons to throw to either.
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
4. Cleveland Browns (4-12)
Pittsburgh will give the Ravens a good run for the division lead, but fall just short. Their offensive line needs to prove they can keep Ben Roethlisberger upright and healthy. Antonio Brown is coming off a break out season and should be even better, but Mike Wallace just returned from a lengthy hold out and could take some time to catch up. With the uncertainty in their backfield, they can't afford for the passing game to struggle. The Bengals surprised a lot of people last year by winning 9 games behind the impressive rookie combo of Andy Dalton and AJ Green. Those two will continue to grow, but they took advantage of one of the league's easiest schedules last year. It will be tougher this year, and their record is sure to reflect that. At least they'll finish ahead of the Browns, who once again turn things over to a rookie QB that they hope will become a franchise mainstay. Given their track record, I find that unlikely.
AFC South
1. Houston Texans (10-6)
2. Tennessee Titans (9-7)
3. Indianapolis Colts (4-12)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)
The Texans can afford to lose star DE Mario Williams to free agency because last year they had two rookies in JJ Watt and Brooks Reed that proved their pass rush could make an impact without him while Williams missed much of the season with injury. What they can't afford is if the turnover on the offensive line becomes a problem. The zone blocking scheme they use should help keep their running game one of the league's best, with a dynamic backfield duo of Arian Foster and Ben Tate leading the way, but they need to protect Matt Schuab from getting injured again. It would also help if Andre Johnson could make it through a game without pulling a hamstring.The Titans chances of taking over the division rely on how Jake Locker performs in his first full season as the starter. He showed flashes of potential in some of his starts last season, but may still experience some growing pains. On the bright side, Chris Johnson seems primed for a bounce back season. Their new running scheme is supposedly fit more to his style of running, which should help him get back to his CJ2K ways rather than his disappointing year last season. Andrew Luck may be the best rookie QB prospect since Peyton Manning (fairly certain people don't just say that due to the Indy connection). Last year was a disaster, but a competent QB should be worth at least a couple of more wins. Just enough to push them past Jacksonville, who could struggle if last year's league leading rusher doesn't end his hold out. Even when MJD eventually returns, it could take him some time to get back up to speed.
AFC West
1. Denver Broncos (9-7)
2. San Diego Chargers (9-7)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)
4. Oakland Raiders (6-10)
Exit Tim Tebow, enter Peyton Manning. Could you ask for a bigger upgrade in terms of a pure passer? That is of course assuming that Manning can play like he always has rather than a 36 year old coming off four neck surgeries that hasn't played in over a year. The Broncos are fascinating because of their extreme boom or bust potential, but given the historically great career Manning has had, we have to assume for now that even at 75% of his former self, he's still capable of leading this team to the top of the division.The Chargers were huge disappointments last season, as Philip Rivers had the worst year of his career. Despite losing his top receiver, Vincent Jackson, to free agency, Rivers is likely to rebound. If nothing else, he's not likely to throw 20 INTs again. The Chiefs will welcome back Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry, but ACL injuries are tough to come back from and often times take up to 2 years before they fully recover. Charles has been said to have shown his same old explosiveness in the pre-season, but the real test will come when the games begin to count. Matt Cassel is still their QB, so they aren't winning anything unless their best offensive weapon is at his best. Carson Palmer showed some signs that he's got something left in the tank after being traded to Oakland last year, but still threw more INTs than TDs. That trend is only going to sink his team at the bottom of the division.
NFC East
New York Giants (10-6)
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
Washington Redskins (8-8)
Dallas Cowboys (6-10)
Last year's Super Bowl champs deserve the benefit of the doubt heading into the season, but be cautious of the fact that they were a mediocre 7-7 in danger of missing the playoffs with just two games left in the season last year. A 6-0 hot streak to finish the year is what earned them a trophy, but for much of the year they were far from world beaters. Eli Manning finally ascended to elite status by proving he can carry the offense and win big games on his own.I really wanted to find a reason to knock the Giants out of the top spot (not that I'm still bitter about how last season ended), but the injury risk attached to Michael Vick is too high to predict them to be division winners. If he was sure to make 16 starts this season then I probably would pick them as a post-hype break out team, but given that he left two pre-season games already with injuries, his health is far from a sure bet. RGIII gives the Redskins the franchise QB they have long craved for. It remains to be seen if he'll be worth the large bounty of draft picks they gave up to get him, but he gives the franchise hope with a much needed infusion of excitement. Despite nearly winning the division last year, Dallas just has too many question marks heading into this season. The offensive line is a mess, Dez Bryant apparently needs a baby-sitter to keep him in line and key weapons Miles Austin and Jason Witten are already banged up.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (13-3)
2. Chicago Bears (10-6)
3. Detroit Lions (9-7)
4. Minnesota Vikings (2-14)
Chicago looked like a playoff team last year until injuries to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte derailed their season. They should be healthier this year and have added Brandon Marshall to the offense. Cutler and Marshall both enjoyed Pro-Bowl seasons together when they teamed in Denver and their chemistry is sure to carry over now that they've been reunited. The Lions made a big jump last year by clinching a playoff birth, but are in danger of taking a step back this year. Matthew Stafford threw for over 5,000 years last year, but with a tougher schedule this year he won't repeat that performance. They are still a young team prone to making immature mistakes, which is something they need to prove has been fixed before they can take the next step. The Vikings are a rebuilding team and their best player is coming off knee surgery. If Adrian Peterson can't be expected to play like his old self then it puts a lot of pressure on second year QB Christian Ponder to carry the offense, which is something he's not ready for.
NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
2. New Orleans Saints (9-7)
3. Carolina Panthers (8-8)
4. Tampa Bay Bucs (4-12)
The fall out from "Bounty-Gate" is sure to follow the Saints like a dark cloud all season. If that distraction isn't bad enough, the loss of suspended players and coaches (most notably head coach Sean Payton) is enough to knock the Saints out of the top spot. It's tough to count out a team that has Drew Brees leading the way, but this team just has a feel of being cursed for this year. Anything that can go wrong for them likely will go wrong. Cam Newton gave the Panthers a big boost in his rookie season by adding 4 wins to their record, but don't expect another 4 win jump this year. Last year's stats show a staggering differential between the first and second half of Newton's season. Perhaps he hit a rookie wall down the stretch, or more likely, other teams adjusted by taking away Steve Smith as a deep threat. His passing numbers weren't nearly as impressive in the second half, so Newton needs to prove he can adjust his game for when the defense takes away the deep ball with something other than just taking off running. Tampa made some big additions in free agency, including Vincent Jackson. Along with rookie RB Doug Martin, the offense should improve, so long as Josh Freeman looks more like his 2010 self as opposed to the version we saw struggle last year.
NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers (10-6)
2. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
3. Arizona Cardinals (6-10)
4. St. Louis Rams (2-14)
The 49ers defense is one of the leagues best, which should help them stay atop of one of the league's worst divisions. Alex Smith showed enough encouraging signs last season to earn himself a new contract, but will he be able to duplicate it now that he's been paid? He's saddled with a stable of "me-first" receivers that could create a combustible situation. Michael Crabtree has been a diva since being drafted, Mario Manningham left a Super Bowl winner in New York because he felt he wasn't getting the ball enough and they also added Randy Moss, possibly the most selfish receiver of all time. Now that Terrell Owns has been released again, maybe they'll give him a call too! They have to be considered the favorite to win the division due to a lack of competition, but there is certainly the potential for them to be a big disappointment.Seattle's defense quietly had a surprisingly good season last year (top 10 in yards and points allowed). Marshawn Lynch proved that he's still capable of being a workhorse back by racking up over 1,200 rushing yards. Unfortunately for them, their prize free agent pick up, Matt Flynn, failed to earn the starting QB job in camp. As good as Russell Wilson looked in limited pre-season action, it's hard to expect a rookie that wasn't a top draft pick to lead a team to a division title. At least their QB situation is in a better place than Arizona's. It's hard to believe this team won 8 games last year with a combo of Kevin Kolb and John Skelton. They still haven't made any firm decisions on who will be their starter in the long run, but it won't matter. Even with a target as great as Larry Fitzgerald to throw to, these two will both struggle to make this a winning team. The Rams won't compete until Sam Bradford finally has the type of season that was expected of him when he was drafted first overall a few years ago.
Playoffs
AFC
East: Patriots
North: Ravens
South: Texans
West: Broncos
Wild Cards: Steelers, Bills
NFC
East: Giants
North: Packers
South: Falcons
West: 49ers
Wild Cards: Eagles, Bears
Super Bowl: Patriots over Packers
The two teams with the best record in their conference last season somehow managed to have the two easiest schedules this year. They'll ride that wave to top seeds once again and clash in an epic Super Bowl showdown between two elite offenses led by the league's best QBs.
Bold Predictions
Despite that three QBs (Brees, Brady, Stafford) threw for over 5,000 yards last season (with Eli Manning nearly making the cut), no QB will pass that milestone this year. It's still a passing league, where numbers will continue to explode, but not at a record breaking pace. Last year's lockout deprived teams of a proper off-season to prepare. Defenses took longer to catch up, which led to some huge offensive performances in the early part of the season. Passing numbers gradually declined as the season wore on, so don't expect those lofty passing numbers again this year.
- A year after leading the league in rushing, Maurice Jones-Drew won't finish in the top 10 this season. So that might not be so bold, considering nobody knows when he'll even rejoin the team following his current hold out. It's possible he continues pouting and sits out the first 10 weeks of the season. Even if MJD does sign his tender in time to return for Week 1, the Jaguars have already said that Rashad Jennings will be their opening day starter. MJD will need time to get back into football shape and will struggle early on when he eventually returns. In the meantime, if Jennings performs well, he'll earn himself some extra carries even after the team gets their MoJo back.
- Jimmy Graham will claim the title of the league's best TE. This pains to me say as a huge Gronkowski fan, but there is plenty of evidence to support this statement. Gronk may have set records for receiving yards and TDs by a TE, but Graham wasn't far behind. He fell a mere 17 yards short of that receiving record, despite having 9 more catches and 25 more targets. The gap in TDs (17-11) will be harder to make up, but receiving TDs are so unpredictable that we cant safely assume that either of these beastly TE's will reach double digits again. Graham's lead in catches and targets are better indicators of future success. He's also not dealing with the injury issues that Gronk has had in the past.
- Matt Ryan finishes in the top 5 in passing yards. He was 8th last year, but another year in the system for Julio Jones (with better health, hopefully) will give him a boost. White and Jones could easily combine for over 2,500 yards between them and they still have an effective Tony Gonzalez at TE. Michael Turner is slowing down, so there will be more emphasis on the passing game, and backup Jacquizz Rodgers is a much better pass catcher out of the backfield.
- Michael Vick will play all 16 games. Just kidding, there's no way that happens, no matter how solid that Kevlar padding protecting his ribs is supposed to be.
- Terrell Owens finds another team to give him a chance. It just won't be an NFL team.
- After scoring 14 rushing TDs last season, Cam Newton won't score more than half of that this season. As good as he is near the goal line, the Panthers can't risk the health of their franchise player by having him jump into a pile in short yardage situations too often. They added Mike Tolbert, who proved in San Diego to be an effective goal line weapon (8 TDs last year), to add to their collection of capable RBs. Also, keep in mind that rushing TDs for QBs can fluctuate drastically from season to season. Two years ago Michael Vick had 9 rushing TDs, but only 1 last season.
- Peyton Manning won't be in the top 10 in any of the major QB rankings (yards, completion %, TDs, etc). He declined in most of those categories in his last healthy season as it is. Did I mention that he's now 36 years old, coming off 4 neck surgeries and hasn't played in over a year? Plus he's dealing with a new offensive system with a whole new group of receivers for the first time in his career. I know I picked the Broncos to win the division anyway, but they did it last year with Tebow as their QB. Even this version of Manning can throw better than Tebow on his best day.
- Replacement refs will still be used through at least the first three weeks of the regular season before the league realizes how much of an impact it has on the quality of games and forces them to cave in and settle their dispute with the officials union.
MVP: Tom Brady
Offensive POY: Tom Brady
Defensive POY: Darrelle Revis
Offensive ROY: Andrew Luck
Defensive ROY: Chandler Jones
COY: Bill Belichick
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