Sunday, August 26, 2012

Red Sox hit the reset button

A Red Sox team that is staggering to the finish line of a horrifically disappointing season broke out the dynamite this weekend by blowing up a huge part of their core.  In one of the biggest blockbuster deals of all time, Boston dealt Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Nick Punto to the LA Dodgers.  The group included Boston's three highest paid players this season and sheds more than $250 million in long term contracts, even after factoring the cash they will send to LA as part of the deal.

The fact that this is the first time in league history that two players with over $100 million left on their contracts have been traded in the same deal goes to show how enormous the impact of this shocking deal has on both teams.  After the Red Sox epic collapse last September was followed by a frustrating season this year that currently has them 9.5 games out of one of the Wild Card spots, it was clear this team was in desperate need of a make over.

The Red Sox clubhouse has been called toxic by many people close to the organization.  Team chemistry is an underrated aspect of the game that this team severely lacks.  The rumor mill has torn the team apart as accusations of a "snitch" in the clubhouse created a witch hunt for the culprit responsible for airing the team's dirty laundry to the media.  The path toward restoring order in the clubhouse began last month when Kevin Youkilis was shipped to Chicago.  That trade was as much about removing an outspoken player who had clashed with several teammates over the years as it was about unloading an expensive veteran to pave way for a spot for Will Middelbrooks in the lineup.

The next step was a big one, by moving Beckett, who has often found himself at the center of this storm.  If his numbers on the field (5.23 ERA) weren't bad enough, his behavior off the field only served to fuel the fire more.  Whether it be a story about him drinking in the clubhouse or playing golf on his off day while rehabbing an injury, there was always something for the local media to use to pick him apart.  That may not have always been fair to him, as these stories would often get overblown, but his comments to those media members rarely did him any favors.

Adrian Gonzalez just couldn't win.  He's always been more of the quiet type of leader that tends to lead by example.  He was criticized last off-season for not taking more of a leadership role during last season's collapse.  His attempt to rectify that this season may have backfired, as becoming more outspoken may have done him more harm than good.  He was at the center of the story of a mutiny against manager Bobby Valentine, as a text message sent to the Red Sox owners voicing complaints against the manager was reported to have come from his phone (supposedly Kelly Shoppach - who has since been traded as well - actually sent the text, with Gonzalez's permission).  A group of disgruntled players would later meet with the owners, apart from Valentine, to raise their concerns over the state of the team.  The tipping point appeared to have been when Bobby V left Jon Lester in to absorb an 11 run beat down at the hands of the Blue Jays.  Gonzalez may not have been the ringleader of this mutiny, but as the team's highest paid player, he became the poster child for it.  Aside from less than expected home run totals, Gonzalez has been productive in his time in Boston, but his involvement in this affair may have sealed his ticket out of town.

Carl Crawford's inclusion in this deal may be more entirely different reasons.  He never did come close to living up to the hefty contract he signed prior to last season.  After a disappointing first year in Boston, where he never seemed comfortable, he's followed that with an injury plagued season that kept him off the field for the majority of the season, before he eventually was forced to shut down for the year by undergoing Tommy John surgery to repair his elbow.  If he can eventually get healthy, Crawford still has the talent to be a great player, but Boston may not have been the environment that he could thrive in.

This deal is essentially a salary dump.  It's the type of fire sale that would make even the Marlins envious.  GM Ben Cherington echoed a sentiment that his mentor Theo Epstein had stated on his way out of town - that the franchise had gotten away from the philosophy that helped them build two World Series champions.  Instead of focusing on player development they tried to compete financially with the Yankees by spending outrageous amounts in free agency.  Some of those contracts, such as deals for Crawford and John Lackey, proved to be expensive mistakes that would become a burden on their payroll budget.  Dumping their biggest contracts now gives them the financial flexibility to rebuild the roster under that old philosophy.  The team currently only has about $46 million in payroll committed to next season, before factoring in the cost of arbitration eligible payers.  We don't yet know what it will cost to retain them, but we can expect the team salary to stay under $100 million, which would be a far cry from the $173 million payroll they started this season with.

In order to keep that flexibility, Cherington will need to resist the urge to make a splash this winter by signing one of the flashy names in this year's free agency crop.  Star players like Josh Hamilton (long history of injuries and substance abuse) and Zack Grienke (anxiety issues may not acclimate him to a market like Boston) would be expensive and too risky.  He should instead focus on developing the farm system and retaining their own players.  The money saved in this deal could help their chances in signing Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury to long term extensions.

Aside from the massive long term savings Boston will get from this deal, they may not be getting much in return.  Gonzalez may not be hitting for as much power as expected, but a player of his caliber that's already signed long term generally would net the team at least a couple of elite prospects.  In this case, it seems giving up Gonzalez is the price to pay to unload the contracts of Beckett and Crawford.  James Loney will likely replace Gonzalez at first base for now.  He was never able to live up to his potential and seems to have flamed out after a promising start to his career.

The prize of the deal could be two pitching prospects that have the upside to become starters near the top of the rotation.  Allen Webster was considered the Dodgers second best pitching prospect.  He's a ground ball pitcher with a hard sinking fastball and a deceptive change-up that he relies on as his out pitch.  His breaking pitches need some work, but he could develop into an above average starter with potential for even more.  Rubby de la Rosa was considered a top prospect before Tommy John surgery shut him down.  He recently returned, but it's yet to be seen if he can reclaim his former level of production.  At his best, he can throw in the upper 90's, with a heater capable of reaching 100 MPH.  If he's healthy he should be an effective starter.  Neither of these prospects is likely to become the ace of this staff, but they need at least one of them to reach their potential and become at least a number two starter.

The other two prospects don't offer much hope.  Jerry Sands has good raw power, but his below average bat speed will make it difficult for him to hit for average.  Combine that with his defensive issues and it's hard to see how he becomes more than a bench player or platoon option.  Ivan De Jesus is a utility infielder that can get on base, but offers little pop with his bat.  Both players provide some organizational depth and could fill in as injury replacements or future trade bait, but neither projects to be an everyday player.

Boston needs to start focusing on it's future by bolstering it's farm system.  This deal does help, but they need to put more money into their scouting and development rather than chasing the big name free agents.  They do have an exciting crop of talent that could find their way to the majors in the next couple of years.  In addition to the prospects acquired in this trade, the team can look forward to the impending arrivals of Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, Matt Barnes, and Jose Inglesias.  Along with youngsters like Will Middlebrooks, Ryan Lavarnway and Ryan Kalish, this Red Sox team could be filled with young, exciting players in the near future.  They still have some growing up to do, but if they can retain their core of home grown players like Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester and Buchholz for the long run then they should end up with a contending team that would be much more likable than the group of entitled veterans they are currently saddled with, while still keeping plenty of financial flexibility.

As for the Dodgers, this trade sends a strong signal from their new ownership group (which includes Magic Johnson) that they are prepared to spend big money to make themselves into contenders.  A lineup that once offered very little protection for Matt Kemp's MVP caliber bat has since added Hanley Ramirez, Shane Victorino and now Gonzalez to form one of the NL's deepest lineups.  If Crawford makes a successful return to health next year, they'll be even more dangerous.  The deep pockets of these new owners have made a huge impact already and they aren't done yet, as they expect to be active in the free agent market this winter in search of another top pitcher to pair with Clayton Kershaw.  Their goal appears to be the west coast version of the free spending Yankees.

Fair warning - be careful what you wish for.  That method didn't work out too well for the Red Sox.  Their free spending ways are what got them into this mess.  Now it's up to Cherington to hit the reset button and clean it up.

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