MLB Preview

The 2012 MLB season kicked off this week with the Mariners and A's splitting a pair of games in Japan.  With the rest of the league set to launch their seasons next week, it's time to make our predictions for this upcoming season.

The off-season treated us to plenty of headlines, including big stars like Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder finding new homes, managerial changes for several high profile teams and the Dodgers finding a group of competent new owners.  Perhaps the biggest impact news of the off-season is the change to add an additional Wild Card to each league.  The two Wild Cards will face off in a one game playoff for the right to play the league's top team in the divisional round, which places much greater emphasis on winning the division instead of settling for a Wild Card.

With those changes in mind, here are my predictions for how this season will unfold.

AL East: Tampa Bay Rays

The division will once again be a three team dog fight, but the Rays have the best pitching and defense in the division, which will carry them through.  Their offense isn't as strong as their competition, but they can expect a healthier and more productive season from Evan Longoria.  If rising star Desmond Jennings can make another jump, they should be able to provide enough with their bats to pile up wins behind their deep rotation, which includes aces David Price and James Shields, reigning Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson, and future stud Matt Moore.

AL Central: Detroit Tigers
The division is weak, making the Tigers the easiest choice for a division winner in the AL.  Adding Prince Fielder's bat to their lineup to pair with Miggy Cabrera gives them the most devastating one-two punch in the league.  Defense will be a concern, with Cabrera moving back to 3B, but Fielder should produce enough at the plate to counter what they lose in the field.  Justin Verlander will be hard pressed to repeat last season's outstanding MVP numbers, but he's still one of the league's top pitchers.

AL West: Texas Rangers

The revamped Angels will give them a run for their money, but the Rangers are still the team to beat out West after two straight AL pennants.  Losing CJ Wilson hurts, but if Yu Darvish is anywhere near as good as advertised then their pitching staff will still survive.  Their offense is still loaded and they have a great bullpen, even if Neftali Feliz does stick in the rotation.

AL Wild Cards: Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees
There are some that think the addition of the extra wild card was done to ensure that both of these mega power teams would have an easier chance at making the postseason, which would boost playoff ratings (crazy, right?).  There are a lot of other reasons for the change, but it almost seems fitting to have these two teams filling these spots.

The Red Sox would have made the postseason last year if not for a historic September collapse.  Nobody can reasonably expect that type of finish to happen again.  They have a loaded offense which will only get better by replacing Drew in RF with the Ross/Sweeney platoon and a likely bounce back season for Carl Crawford.  The pitching rotation has to be better this year, especially at the back end.  No matter who wins that 5th spot, they can't possibly be as bad as Lackey's historically bad season last year.  It all adds up to this team being even better than last year, which not only means they'll be in the mix for the division race, but should at least come away with a playoff spot either way.

Is this the season where old age catches up with the Yankees?  Jeter and A-Rod are on the decline.  How much does Rivera have left in the tank if he's already hinting at this being his last season?  There is still a lot of talent on this team, but too many question marks at key positions to assume they will repeat as division winners.  Yet you just can't leave them out of the mix because, well... they're the Yankees.  So we have to give them at least a Wild Card spot.  Plus, I like the moves they made in trading Montero for Pineda and signing Kuroda to revamp their rotation.  They can't rely on getting solid performance from players they got off the scrap heap like last year, so these moves help give them a solid rotation behind CC Sabathia.

AL Sleepers: LA Angels, Kansas City Royals
If the Angles can't pass the Rangers for the division, they'll still be in the mix for one of the Wild Card spots.  The addition of Pujols and Wilson were two of the winter's biggest moves, which shows the team is dedicated to being winners again.  However, even with the addition of Pujols, this lineup isn't as deep as the contenders they will compete with.  I'd feel better about their chances if they were prepared to start the season with young stud Mike Trout patrolling the outfield, but it seems the albatross contracts of Vernon Wells and Tori Hunter will prevent them from relegating those veterans to the bench right away.  I can see not being thrilled with paying big money to a bench player, but letting Trout play is the right move if they want to win.  By the time they realize that it may have already cost them enough in the standings to prevent them from breaking into the postseason this year.

As for the Royals, they are loaded with young rising stars, with a farm system deep with eventual reinforcements.  If Eric Hosmer can have the kind of breakout season many are predicting, the Royals could surprise some people.  They are probably a year or two away from contending for a postseason spot, but if the Tigers falter then the Royals may be the team most likely to steal the Central division.

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been the clear front runner in this division the past few years, but the gap is closing.  The offense could struggle early in the year without Ryan Howard or Chase Utley and it's not clear if they can contribute at their previous levels once they are healthy.  Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence will have to pick up the slack in the meantime.  They do still boast a pitching staff - Halladay, Lee, Hamels - that no other team in the division can come close to competing with, so the offense doesn't have to carry them.  If their pitching can keep them afloat until mid-season when they get their injured stars back then they should be able to finish strong. 

NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers
Losing Prince Fielder will hurt, but at least they still have Ryan Bruan to anchor their lineup.  Getting his suspension overturned was a huge break for the Brew Crew.  Aramiz Rameriz won't make up all of the production lost from Fielder's departure, but if they end up using power hitting Matt Gamel at 1B then the combination of the two may not be far off.  It's going to be the pitching staff that carries this team anyway.  Zack Grienke's 2.56 xFIP and 10.54 K/9 stats from last year suggest he was a much better pitcher last year than his 3.83 ERA would suggest.  Yovani Gallardo is steadily improving and could be poised to become an ace as well.

NL West: San Francisco Giants

Pitching will once again have to carry this team, as they haven't done nearly enough to improve their offense.  Still, it's hard to bet against a team that features a rotation headlined by Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner.  Healthier seasons from Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval should help give them enough of an offensive boost to win plenty of games behind that pitching staff.

NL Wild Cards: Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals
Justin Upton led Arizona to a division title last year and he's still getting better.  I'm not all that confident in Ian Kennedy or Daniel Hudson being quite as great as last year though, which makes me hesitant to predict they'll repeat this year.  They are still a good young team on the rise that should be capable of grabbing a playoff spot.

This may be a year too early for the Nats, but with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann back in the rotation for a full season, plus the addition of Gio Gonzalez, this team looks ready to compete.  Ryan Zimmerman should be healthier this season and Jayson Werth just can't be as bad as last year.  They will get a boost by adding Bryce Harper to the lineup later this season.  The future star may be just what they need to put them in position for a late season run for the final wild card spot.

NL Sleepers: Miami Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals, LA Dodgers

The Fish made a big splash this winter by signing Jose Reyes, Mark Buerhle and Heath Bell.  It means they will be much improved this season, but their success hinges too much on the health of ace Josh Johnson.  If he can't make at least 30 starts this season then they may be sunk. 

It's hard to count out the defending champs, but the Cardinals did just lose the best hitter of this generation to free agency and a legendary manager to retirement.  Carlos Beltran isn't going to make up for the production from Pujols' departure and I'm not all that convinced that Lance Berkman's comeback season will carry over to another year.  Getting Adam Wainwright back in their rotation will help, but he has to prove himself again after missing an entire year.  Plus, just as he comes back, they are struck with news of Chris Carpenter's injury issues.  If those linger deep into the season, their rotation could be in trouble without last year's postseason hero.

This season has already been a victory for the Dodgers, now that they have a new ownership group (led by Magic Johnson, no less).  A team featuring last year's CY Young Clayton Kershaw and MVP runner up Matt Kemp has to have a chance to be in the mix, but realistically, it will probably have to wait until next year when the new owners will have a chance to upgrade the rest of the roster in free agency.

World Series: Detroit Tigers over San Francisco Giants

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young: Dan Haren
AL Rookie: Matt Moore

NL MVP: Justin Upton
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
NL Rookie: Bryce Harper