Red Sox approach the trade deadline

Here we are, less than a week away from the July 31st trade deadline, where the Boston Red Sox find themselves in the basement of the highly competitive AL East division.  They are a game under .500 (49-50) and 4.5 games out of a Wild Card spot.  While that may not appear to be an insurmountable lead, consider that there are currently 7 teams ahead of them in the race.  The Yankees are running away with the division title and have a 10.5 game lead over Boston, so we're past the point of hoping to pull closer in that race.  Remember last season, when this team agonized through a historic September collapse?  They would pretty much have to do the opposite of that over the next two months just to claim a Wild Card spot, which only puts them in position to play a one game playoff for the chance to advance to the ALCS.  As the deadline rapidly approaches, the Red Sox have some tough questions to consider to determine whether they will be buyers or sellers.

The case can be made that a staggering amount of injuries that has plagued the team all season is the culprit for their disappointing season.  Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford both missed most of the season and as soon as they returned, David Ortiz hit the disabled list.  The team has yet to have their full lineup together for a single game all season.  As the team slowly gets it's roster healthy, these additions should prove to be far greater than most additions other teams will trade for this week.  There is still a lot of talent on this team (as there should be with a payroll of nearly $150 million - 4th highest in the majors), so the hope is that in the end, talent wins out.  The roster is littered with underachievers, particularly in the starting rotation, where the drop off in production from aces Jon Lester and Josh Beckett has been baffling.  Despite all the injuries, their offense is still the second highest scoring team in the majors.  If the pitching improves to anywhere near expectations, the team would be in good shape.  The question is, can we expect them to turn it around at this point and is it too late?

If the Sox were to attempt to bolster the roster to make a late run at the playoffs, they have some assets to pull off a trade.  The farm system includes a few blue chip prospects in Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley and Matt Barnes that could be used in a package to acquire a legitimate front line starting pitcher, but there aren't really any available options that would be worth giving up their best prospects for.  Cole Hamels is off the market after signing a 6 year, $144 million extension with the Phillies.  Ryan Dempster might be on his way to Atlanta, but he's using his no trade clause to hold up the deal in hopes that the Cubs will trade him to the Dodgers instead.  Either way, he's not coming here.  Matt Garza is AL East tested, but he's not really an ace, so the price is too high for him.  Miami claims they aren't selling Josh Johnson (despite that they seem to be selling off everyone else), plus his injury history and mediocre performance this season is enough to scare the team off of trading their best prospects for him.  The only legitimate ace that seems to be available at the deadline is Zack Grienke, but concerns over his anxiety issues and how he'd handle playing in a big market should give the team pause when considering pulling the trigger for him.  Maybe those concerns have been a bit overblown, but do you want to take that chance for a two month rental, given how much it would cost to get him?  They could instead use some mid-level prospects to improve the back end of the rotation and bullpen, but unless Lester and Beckett pull it together soon, that won't be enough to get them to October.

Paying a steep price in terms of giving up top prospects would not be a wise choice at this point.  Even if it meant acquiring an ace starting pitcher, it might not be enough to get them to the playoffs.  Their best case scenario would be a Wild Card spot, but there's no way to ensure that they'll be able to use that newly acquired pitcher for that one game playoff.  What if they traded for Grienke, but needed him to start game number 162 just to try to clinch the last Wild Card spot?  Would you trust any of the other guys in this rotation in that one game playoff?  Given the hole they have dug for themselves, this is not a team that can contend for a championship.  One big trade isn't going to change that.

Instead, the team needs to seriously consider becoming a seller at the deadline.  While that concept seems unfathomable in Boston, where Red Sox Nation expects the team to contend every year, they have to be realistic about where they stand.  This by no means is to say that they should hold a fire sale by trading everything that isn't nailed down.  They aren't the Marlins.  The core of the team should remain intact to contend for next year and beyond, but there are still several movable pieces on this roster.  With Ellsbury and Crawford back on the field, they now have a surplus of outfielders.  That could make one of Cody Ross, Mike Sweeney or Ryan Kalish expendable.  Of that trio, Sweeney is the most likely to be moved.  Teams looking for bullpen help may call inquiring about Vincente Padilla or Scott Atchinson (if he can get healthy soon enough to have value).  Utility man Nick Punto is available and they may even consider moving Mike Avilas, as long as they are finally ready to give prospect Jose Inglesias a shot at the everyday job at short stop.  Inglesias has a glove that has been major league ready for a while, but it was his bat that held him back.  In this loaded lineup, they don't really need him to hit much.  He missed time with injury this year, but he's back now and starting to produce. 

These trades would be relatively minor to move role players.  There were whispers last week of the team considering moving Carl Crawford, but nobody is taking on his contract (especially when everyone knows he'll eventually need Tommy John surgery to repair his elbow).  Despite his struggles, they aren't trading Jon Lester.  He's a 28 year old lefty with a great track record.  He hasn't lost his velocity and still has great stuff.  He's just not locating his pitches this year, which is an indication of either a mental issue or a mechanical one, both of which can be fixed.  The only big piece I could see being moved would be Josh Beckett.  A lot of teams are looking for starting pitching and a team might be enticed by his track record and past playoff heroics, especially if the Sox were willing to eat a large portion of his remaining contract.  If they did trade Beckett, it would be more of a move made to improve club house chemistry, as Beckett's attitude and work ethic have often been questioned.  A change of scenery could be mutually beneficial, as was the case with Kevin Youkilis.  However, if you look at Beckett's career, he's alternated the bad seasons with great ones.  If you believe in that track record, next year he could very well pitch like the ace he's capable of.  If you're going to trade him, now is not the time, from a value standpoint.

If the team doesn't consider itself a legitimate contender this year then why not clear some room on the active roster to open playing time for some of the kids to see what they can do?  If they succeed, it would provide the team with a low cost option to fill positions heading into next season so they can focus their budget on other areas of need.  Their record may suffer the rest of the year, but the long term benefits make it worth it.  They need to see what some of these younger players can do.  They won't likely get more than a couple mid-level prospects in return for the talent they are willing to give up, but it would add some much needed depth to the farm system and provide additional options that could be packaged in future trades.  Plus, falling off any further this season could net them a top 10 pick in next summer's draft, where they could find an elite prospect for the future.

As hard as it is for a rabid fan base like Boston's to accept, this Red Sox team is not a title contender.  Buying at the deadline would likely not improve those chances, while mortgaging part of their future, and doing nothing at the deadline is merely treading water.  Being honest with themselves about their chances and looking to the future instead is the best move for this franchise.  They can improve the farm system, give playing time to younger players and save some money, which can be used later when the team is in better position to contend.

It's a tough pill to swallow to miss out of the postseason for the third straight year, but by doing the right thing today in building for the future, tomorrow looks a lot brighter.